Cornwall Local Plan Housing Implementation Strategy
August 2017
1 Introduction
1.1 The Cornwall Local Plan includes a housing requirement of a minimum of 52500 homes between 2010 and 2030. Table 1 of the Local Plan identifies how many homes have been completed, how many have planning permission and the expected windfall from small sites and compares this to the Local Plan target for each town and the residual part of each Community Network Area. The following is an update to this table showing the position as at 31st March 2017.
Table 1: Apportionment of Local Plan Housing Provision as at 31st March 2017
Location / Proposed Allocation / Completions 2010-17 / Planning Permission Not Started and Under Construction / Windfall on sites of less than 10 homes 2022-30Penzance / Newlyn / 2,150 / 312 / 348 / 272
West Penwith CNA residual / 1,000 / 400 / 507 / 240
Hayle / 1,600 / 204 / 1195 / 88
St Ives-Carbis Bay / 1,100 / 563 / 355 / 296
Hayle and St Ives CNA residual / 480 / 232 / 196 / 88
Helston / 1200 / 278 / 1132 / 112
Helston and the Lizard CNA residual / 1,100 / 642 / 431 / 400
CPIR / 5,200 / 1665 / 2951 / 528
CPR CNA residual / 1000 / 489 / 335 / 264
Falmouth-Penryn / 2,800 / 916 / 1202 / 216
Falmouth and Penryn CNA residual / 600 / 297 / 266 / 128
Truro-Threemilestone-Shortlanesend / 3,900 / 943 / 3877 / 152
Truro and Roseland CNA residual / 1200 / 678 / 551 / 264
St Agnes and Perranporth CNA / 1,100 / 660 / 625 / 200
Newquay / 4,400 / 1335 / 2966 / 480
Newquay and St Columb CNA residual / 400 / 225 / 207 / 96
Eco-Community / 1,500 / 0 / 0
Location / Proposed Allocation / Completions 2010-17 / Planning Permission Not Started and Under Construction / Windfall on sites of less than 10 homes 2022-30
St Austell / 2,600 / 1209 / 1729 / 152
St Austell CNA residual / 300 / 246 / 129 / 96
St Blazey, Fowey and Lostwithiel CNA / 900 / 494 / 312 / 184
China Clay CNA / 1,800 / 846 / 473 / 288
Wadebridge / 1,100 / 220 / 276 / 48
Wadebridge and Padstow CNA residual / 1,000 / 487 / 324 / 224
Bodmin / 3,100 / 546 / 1611 / 112
Bodmin CNA residual / 100 / 51 / 45 / 56
Camelford / 375 / 171 / 85 / 48
Camelford CNA residual / 625 / 216 / 202 / 152
Bude-Stratton-Poughill / 1200 / 321 / 625 / 88
Bude CNA residual / 600 / 201 / 173 / 176
Launceston / 1,800 / 382 / 940 / 80
Launceston CNA residual / 500 / 201 / 156 / 184
Liskeard / 1,400 / 351 / 835 / 64
Liskeard and Looe CNA residual / 1,500 / 670 / 702 / 256
Callington / 480 / 149 / 386 / 64
Caradon CNA residual / 520 / 200 / 294 / 160
Saltash / 1,200 / 156 / 101 / 104
Torpoint / 350 / 5 / 57 / 0
Cornwall Gateway CNA residual / 350 / 104 / 85 / 40
TOTAL: / 52,530 / 17,065 / 26,684 / 6,400
1.2 Table 1 (as updated above) identifies all existing permissions with no adjustments made. However, housing trajectories have been produced for Cornwall as a whole and for each Community Network Area and, where identified, the town within that CNA that seek to demonstrate how the target for each area will be met and applies adjustments to the permissions to account for the possibility that not all of them will ultimately deliver homes and also identifies the other sources that together will achieve the Local Plan targets. The following report seeks to provide an explanation behind the assumptions made for each source in the trajectories that will contribute to delivering the local plan housing target and for each area, identify whether there is a shortfall or surplus together with how any shortfall can be met.
2 Explanation of the Trajectories
2.1 The Housing Trajectory identifies the various sources that will provide the supply that will enable the plan requirement to be delivered. Assumptions have been made depending on the source to adjust the yield and delivery rate. They are based on the position as at 1st April 2017. A series of summary trajectories have also been produced for each CNA and named town. These are included as Appendix 1.
The sources.
1) Completions. The first seven years of the plan period have passed and therefore the delivery within this period is made up of actual completions.
2) Planning permissions. These have been split between those sites up to 9 units and sites of 10 or more. For the small sites a discount rate of 10% has been applied to the stock of permissions and an assumption made that 90% of the permissions will be delivered over the following 5 years. This is based upon an analysis of past trends, in particular that, numerically 90% of the permissions that were not started or under construction in 2010 were developed within the following five years. For the larger sites of 10 or more an analysis of past trends was undertaken to establish the average lead in times and delivery rates that were then applied to the sites with permission. This resulted in the average lead in times from the date of permission to the completion of the first house and delivery rates for different sized sites as set out in table 2 below. The lead in times increase for outline permissions to take into account the time taken for the submission and approval of reserved matters.
For the largest of sites (500+) to allow for the likelihood that in most cases more than one developer may develop the site at one time, the delivery rate has been doubled to 70 per year.
Table 2: Average lead in times and delivery rates for full planning permissionSite size / Average lead in time (months) / Average delivery rate (completions per year)
10-49 / 30 / 39
50-99 / 26 / 30
100+ / 19 / 35
Table 3: Additional average lead in times to be applied to outline planning permission
Site size / Average lead in time (months)
10-49 / 20
50-99 / 21
100+ / 24
The evidence to obtain these assumptions is based on activity in the development industry during a period of recession. It is likely therefore that particularly delivery rates and to a lesser extent lead in times may be on the conservative side. These rates will therefore be closely monitored and adjusted to reflect significant changes. These average rates have been applied to all sites in the trajectory with the exception of the larger and more complex sites where delivery has been adjusted to reflect the expectations of the developers on individual parts of the sites and also that some phases will follow after each other rather than concurrently. In some areas this has meant that some of the larger sites are likely to deliver homes beyond the end of the plan period. The tables below reflect what is deliverable within the plan period rather than the overall number of homes with planning permission.
NB: On a county wide basis the application of average lead in times and delivery rates results in a spike in delivery over the first few years which are unlikely to be achieved. It is better therefore to look at the average that is available over the next five years to represent a more realistic expectation of future delivery.
3) Sites granted permission in principle but awaiting the signing of a S106 legal agreement. These sites have been identified separately on the basis that they do not have a permission until a legal agreement is signed. This will mean that there is likely to be a longer lead in time to take account of the time it takes until a legal agreement is finalised. An estimate has been made as to how long it would take to finalise the legal agreement for each site. This was then added to the average lead in times and delivery rates and applied to each site.
4) Cornwall Land Initiative sites. These sites, whilst not having planning permission as at April 2017, are being actively promoted by the Council, are available now and are suitable for development, furthermore they have a variety of developer commitment in the form of a signed contract with a clause aiming for development of the sites within five years. As there were a small number of sites the expected delivery rates was assessed based upon discussions with officers directly involved in bringing these sites forward.
5) Windfall on small sites less than 10. Small sites have historically formed a significant proportion of all completions. Whilst the development of current permissions will produce completions on such sites over the next five years, it is important to recognise that such sites currently without permission will continue to contribute to completions over the last 8 years of the plan period. An assumption of 800 per year based on past trends (950 per year) and reduced to take account of the need to exclude an element of past trends that was on garden land. The figure was then disaggregated to each CNA and town based on the proportion of development that has taken place in each over the first 4 years of the plan period. The SHLAA sets out the detailed methodology for the calculation of windfall. This figure can be monitored based on completions on small sites each year. In the first 7 years of the plan period completions on small sites have averaged 904 per year during a period of recession which would suggest the windfall allowance is on the conservative side. Once the local plan is adopted it is likely that the policy approach of allowing infill development in a wider range of settlements including smaller hamlets may result in a higher number of completions from this source and therefore the windfall rate may need to be revised.
6) Sites proposed in the emerging Site Allocations DPD. The Local Plan Strategic Policies does not allocate sites to meet the local plan requirement. This will be achieved for those towns that are not currently allocating sites through Neighbourhood Plans and in the Site Allocations DPD. A considerable amount of work has been undertaken in assessing options for sites and preferred sites have been identified. This element of the Local Plan was published for consultation in July 2017 and it is anticipated it will be submitted in the Autumn of 2017. It cannot currently be given much weight and as such the yields from most of the allocations have not been included in the five year supply. However some sites are progressing in advance of this element of the local plan and this has been reflected in the trajectory. The Eco Community at West Carclaze and Par Docks. The Local Plan identifies West Carclaze and Par Docks as part of the development of the Eco Community. The sites are to be developed by Eco-Boss, the developer but working with Cornwall Council and the Homes and Communities Agency. The anticipated annual delivery based on the estimates of the partnership has been incorporated into the trajectory. A planning application for at West Carclaze has been approved subject to the signing of a S106 agreement.
3 Explanation of delivery
3.1 The trajectory identifies the expected annual delivery rate for each year that results from the assumptions explained above. These are then added, year on year to give an estimate of likely cumulative completions. This is then compared to the cumulative local plan target to identify whether there is a surplus or shortfall in meeting the local plan requirement. This is the ‘monitor’ row in the trajectory. A negative figure in this row indicates the extent of a shortfall at any given point in time. A negative figure at the end of this row (the end of the plan period) means that there is a shortfall in meeting the local plan requirement from the sources identified.
3.2 The last row (manage) identifies the annual requirement that is required at any given point in time to meet the local plan requirement based upon the completions that have taken place since the start of the plan period.
3.3 Where there is a shortfall in meeting the local Plan target in a particular area then the expectation is that this will need to be met from currently unidentified sites of 10 units or more either through allocations in the Site Allocations DPD, Neighbourhood Plans or through the delivery of sites under Local Plan policies 8 and 9 that provide for development within settlements or through rural exceptions.
3.4 This report identifies for each area whether, after taking into account the sources described above, there is a surplus and therefore it is expected the local plan requirement can be met or if there is a shortfall that needs to be made up through allocations or additional permissions in accordance with Policy 3 of the Local Plan. In those areas where a Neighbourhood plan that has been adopted and includes allocations for housing, this has been added as a source that will contribute to meeting the local plan requirement. In addition to this a commentary is provided on whether completions since the start of the plan period are in line with the local plan expected delivery rate or whether a step change in delivery will be required to meet the Local Plan requirement.
4 The Delivery of the Local Plan Housing Target
Cornwall
Local Plan Housing Target / 52500Completions 2010-2017 / 17065
Planning permission <10 units (10% discount) / 4525
Planning permission 10+ units / 19434
Sites granted planning permission subject to the signing of a S106 / 2200
CLI Sites / 231
Windfall on small sites (2022-2030) / 6400
Proposed Local Plan Site Allocations / 5335
Neighbourhood Plan Allocations / 0
Eco-Community / 1075
Surplus / 3765
Cornwall
4.1 The Cornwall Summary Trajectory shows that completions since the start of the plan period have fallen below that required by the Local Plan. To meet the local plan requirement and to ensure the shortfall is met within the next five years as required by the local plan, will require building rates over the next five years to average 2887 per year. It is projected that there is a sufficient supply to enable on average about 3713 dwellings per year to be delivered over the next 5 years. If this is achieved then the annual requirement for the last 8 years of the plan period would fall to 2109 per year between 2022 and 2030. The trajectory also shows that specific sites can now be identified that will deliver in excess of the required build rate for the remainder of the plan period andas a result there is now a theoretical surplus of 3765 over the plan period.