"Who Will Rule the 21st Century? Economic Success, Military Strength, and the Rise and Fall of Great Powers”

Michael O’Hanlon

April 2014

DRAFT SYLLABUS

In the late 1980s, as U.S. GDP growth slowed, budget deficits remained stubbornly high, and other economies outperformed that of the United States, it was frequent to hear people argue that “the Cold War is over—and Japan and Germany won.”At least those latter powers were U.S. allies. Since that time, moreover, they have encountered their own challenges--Germany in reintegrating its own eastern half and then helping establish the viability (and solvency) of the EU and Euro systems, Japan in dealing with a protracted deflating of its earlier financial bubble combined with demographic challenges that leave its future economic prospects uncertain and political challenges that keep it weaker than might be expected.

Today, we are witnessing a period of even greater American economic travails, much larger fiscal deficits, and the concern that less friendly powers—China, Russia, perhaps India and others—may be poised to benefit from the relative decline of the United States in specific and the West in general. Is this true? Even more to the point for this course, what do these shifting economic realities bode for the future of American power and ultimately the security of this country and its

This course, informed by both historical and technical perspectives, will wrestle with such broad questions about the architecture of the international power system. It will consider the relative decline of the United States and many of its major western allies that many consider to be already underway, and only likely to accelerate--asking not only if it is indeed a reality, but also what its likely magnitude and scope will be. It will examine the promise of the rising powers, together with the structural constraints and other impediments that they will have to face themselves as they seek greater stature, clout, and prosperity in the 21st century.

The course will be informed by readings such asPaul Kennedy’s Rise and Fall of the Great Powers with its emphasis on the last five centuries, literature from the above-mentioned 1980s debate in the United States, and more contemporary materials. It will also include readings on China’s economic prognosis, on America’s technical and scientific fundamentals, and other related matters. The ultimate purpose of the course is to help students assess the emerging power structures of the 21st century and determine how they think the United States as well as other countries can best adapt to—or alter—the tectonic shifts that are already evident and only likely to intensify.

SYLLABUS

Sessions One and Two: Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, pp. 3-274.

Session Three: Fareed Zakaria, The Post-American World

Session Four: Robert Kagan, The World America Made

Session Five: Charles Kupchan, No One’s World

Session Six: Bruce Jones, Still Ours to Lead

Session Seven: William Antholis, China and India Inside Out

Session Eight: Roett, The New Brazil

Session Nine: Riedel, Deadly Embrace: Pakistan, America, and the Future of the Global Jihad

Session Ten: Richard K. Betts, American Force, pp. 50-200

Session Eleven: Zbigniew Brzezinski, Strategic Vision

Session Twelve: Eric Edelman, Understanding America’s Contested Primacy

SUPPLEMENTAL READINGS

Boot, War Made New

Brown, Higher Realism

Burtless et.al., Globaphobia

Bush, O’Hanlon, A War Like No Other

Carter, Perry, Preventive Defense

Clarke, Cyber War

Fishman, China, Inc.

Friedberg, Aaron, A Contest for Supremacy

Friedman, Tom (and Mike Mandelbaum), That Used to Be Us

Hobbes, Leviathan

Hu, China in 2020

Ikenberry, John, After Victory

Jones, Pascual, Stedman, Power and Responsibility

Keohane, After Hegemony

Khanna, The Second World

Kose/Prasad, Emerging Markets

Lake, Six Nightmares

Lieber, Power and Willpower in the American Future

Lieberthal, Managing the China Challenge

Machiavelli, The Prince

Slaughter, A New World Order

Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War

Tzu, The Art of War

Van Agtmael, The Emerging Markets Century

Van Tol, AirSea Battle

Von Clausewitz, On War

Walker, Comeback America

West, Brain Gain

Zakaria, The Post American World

Kaplan, Monsoon

Gaddy and Hill, on Putin