The Big not-quite-so-Easy
The Economist print edition Jan 19th 2006
A smaller, safer New Orleans makes sense. It may not come to pass
AP
Life in the Lower Ninth
IN PARTS of the Lower Ninth Ward, people who want to rebuild their houses will have to find their land first. When the levees enclosing the Industrial Canal failed during Hurricane Katrina last August, most of this poor black neighbourhood disappeared. Its most prominent landmark is now a hulking barge that escaped from the canal and lies stranded in a wasteland. Farther away from the levee breach, buildings still look like buildings; but they have been ripped off their foundations and tangled up with other structures. Apart from a few carloads of gawkers and an encampment of earnest students, the area is devoid of life.
It may never revivify. Under a plan put forward by Mayor Ray Nagin's Bring New Orleans Back Commission (BNOB), areas that experienced minimal flooding by Katrina would be rebuilt immediately. But residents in the harder hit areas, such as the Lower Ninth Ward (which was also hammered by Hurricane Betsy in 1965), would have until May 20th to show that they would return in sufficient numbers to keep their neighbourhoods alive. If they fail to do so, homeowners could be “bought out” in some way and the areas in question could revert to swampland or be turned into parks.
A mass migration to higher ground would appear to make sense—and not just because nobody wants a repeat of last summer's disaster. For the foreseeable future, New Orleans will be a smaller city. The city's population, which rose above 600,000 in the mid-1960s, had declined to about 462,000 before Katrina emptied the town. The mayor's commission puts the current figure at 144,000, but expects the population to be only 247,000 by 2008.
Even before the hurricane, city agencies struggled to fight crime, mow grass and keep streets and waterpipes in working order. After losing much of its tax base, New Orleans may be too broke to provide services over the same geographical area. The cost of subsidising services for a few foolhardy souls could be better spent in potentially viable neighbourhoods. Most urban planners insist that the city must write off some areas for the rest to survive.
Here, however, logic runs into principle and racial politics. Many politicians feel queasy about violating the property rights of individual householders, some of whom are determined to return to their homes come what may. There are also accusations of racism. Most of the city's highest neighbourhoods are also its oldest, wealthiest and whitest. There are some exceptions—Lakeview, a rich white area, and Eastover, a rich black one, were both hit hard—but, in general, plans to shrink the city's size could mean the end of a lot of poor black neighbourhoods.
God and chocolate fudge
The city council has passed a resolution urging the immediate and equal redevelopment of all parts of the city. This looks like grandstanding. The resolution is non-binding and it is not clear who would pay for it. The Bush administration has agreed to pay for new pumping stations along Lake Pontchartrain and the closure of three drainage canals—steps that could improve the safety of areas west of the Industrial Canal. But eastern New Orleans and the Lower Ninth Ward may not be protected for years.
Inevitably, the rebuilders at BNOB have tried to put off the decision. One of its leaders, Joseph Canizaro, a property developer (and Republican fund-raiser), suggested reopening all the city to development and then deciding in three years which bits to close down. Others wanted to wait for a year, which would also have left householders unsure whether to rebuild.
The current proposal, the four-month waiting period, was a compromise. It includes a moratorium on building permits in the hard-hit areas until the decision is made—a crucial component in a city that has already issued thousands of permits and is issuing more than 100 a day.
Public officials in Louisiana tend to be chosen for their ability to bring home the pork, rather than in telling angry people what they don't want to hear. This week, the sometimes eccentric Mr Nagin called Katrina a sign that “God is mad at America” and promised that he would fulfil the Almighty's wish that New Orleans be rebuilt as a “chocolate” city with a majority black population. But he has not yet said whether he will abide by the BNOB recommendations. State officials are also mum on this subject—as is George Bush.
In this political vacuum, most of the news is coming from victims in the worst-hit areas. Signs of discord are evident. “I don't know you, but I hate you,” a resident of eastern New Orleans told Mr Canizaro at a meeting. Community activists have sued to keep the city from bulldozing in the Lower Ninth Ward. Shots were fired at a march called to show civic unity.
In the end the decisive vote in New Orleans will come not from those householders who are determined to return but from those who are currently unsure whether to rebuild or move on. Many of them owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. If they cannot extricate themselves, many will have to stay. Hence the interest in a bill sponsored by Richard Baker, a Republican congressman from Baton Rouge, who wants Congress to create a recovery corporation that would buy out the owners of ruined homes.
This could be hugely expensive: the corporation could issue up to $30 billion in bonds. But at least Mr Baker and BNOB, like the Almighty (as revealed to Mr Nagin), have come up with a plan. Unless other politicians are prepared to make some hard, expensive decisions, the Big Easy's future looks chaotic.