Record of endorsement on behalf of the Government:
Marlon José Pérez MirandaGEF Operational Focal Point
Ministerio del Ambiente y de Recursos Naturales / Date: 04/06/2005
PROJECT Development Facility
Request for Pipeline Entry and PDF B Approval
This proposal has been prepared in accordance with GEF policies and procedures and meets the standards of the GEF Project Review Criteria for approval.Yannick Glemarec
Deputy Executive Coordinator
UNDP/GEF / Project Contact Person: Oliver Page
UNDP/GEF Regional Coordination Unit for Latin America and the Caribbean
Date: 21 November 2005 / Tel. and email:
(507)302-4548
Agency’s Project ID: PIMS 3518
GEFSEC Project ID: 2801
Country: Nicaragua
Project Title: Promotion of Environmentally Sustainable Transport for the Capital City of Managua
GEF Agency: UNDP
Other Executing Agency(ies):
Duration: 19 Months
GEF Focal Area: CC
GEF Operational Program: OP11-Promoting Environmentally Sustainable Transport
GEF Strategic Priority: CC6-Urban Shifts in Urban Transport and Clean Vehicle/Fuel Technologies
Estimated Starting Date: November 2005
Estimated WP Entry Date: April 2006
Pipeline Entry Date
Financing Plan (US$)GEF Allocation
Project (estimated) / 3,875,000
Project Co-financing (estimated) / 53,000,000
PDF A* / 25,000
PDF B** / 325,000
PDF C
Sub-Total GEF PDF
/ 350,000PDF Co-financing (details provided in Part II, Section E – Budget)
UNDP / 165,000
National Contribution / 58,000
Others / 300,000
Sub-Total PDF Co-financing: / 523,000
Total PDF Project Financing: / 873,000
* Indicate approval date of PDFA: April 13, 2005
** If supplemental, indicate amount and date of originally approved PDF
List of Acronyms
BCN Nicaraguan Central Bank
BRT Bus Rapid Transit
CAS Country Assistance Strategy
CIEMA Center for Research and Studies on Environment
CNCC National Committee on Climate Change
CO Carbon monoxide
CO2 Carbon dioxide (a greenhouse gas)
GEF Global Environmental Facility
GHG Greenhouse Gases
IADB Inter American Development Bank
INE Institute of Energy, Managua
INETER Institute for Territorial Studies
INIFOM Nicaraguan Institute for Municipal Promotion
IPCC International Panel on Climate Change, UNO
IRTRAMMA Institute for the Regulation of Transport in Municipality of Managua
IUTC Inter-Institutional Urban Transport Committee
JICA Japanese International Cooperation Agency
MAGFOR Ministry of Agriculture
MARENA Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources
MINREX Ministry of Foreign Affairs
MRT Mass Rapid Transport
NMT Non-Motorized Transport
NO x Nitrogenous Oxides
OLADE Latin American Energy Organization
OP11 GEF Operational Plan #11 on Sustainable Transport
PDF Project Development Facility, GEF
PMU Project Management Unit
PND National Development Plan 2004-2010
PPP Public Private Partnership for bus routes operation
UNDP United Nations Development Program
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
UNI National Engineering University, Managua
PART I - Project Concept
A - Summary
1. The general objective of the proposed project is to mitigate greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions by promoting a sustainable urban transport system in the City of Managua through modal changes to public and non-motorized transport.
2. Managua, the capital city of Nicaragua, is the Central American capital city with the most problems for the daily mobilization of drivers, bike users and pedestrians. The present public transport system is anarchic, with a high number of buses in operation, an aged bus fleet, overlaps between bus routes, and a low quality of service. It transports 740,000 passengers per day, and it has undergone a reduction of its modal share in over the past 5 years. As a consequence, local and global emissions of air pollutants due to the transport sector in Managua are increasing fast, and are expected to duplicate over the next 25 years (from 0.89 to 1.82 million tons of CO2 per year).
Acknowledging the transport issues faced by Managua, the Municipality is leading an effort to improve the public transport sector, most notably through the construction of a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system. A Full Size Project is proposed to integrate sustainable transport practices into current transportation planning and public transport investment programs. Specifically, the proposed project is designed to support and complement the development the Bus Rapid Transport system, identifying and developing opportunities not contemplated in current urban transport planning processes, and strengthening existing action plans with specific GHG emissions mitigation goals.
3. The proposed project is expected to reduce CO2 emissions from public transport by 35% (from 2005 level) in 2030. In the same time, the modal shift to NMT mode will reduce about 4% of the expected CO2 emissions due to public transport and private cars in Managua. Compared with the Baseline Scenario forecasts, the total mitigation of CO2 emissions will reach 40,000 tons per year at the end of the execution of the proposed project (2011), and then increase up to146,000 tons per year in 2030. Therefore, the proposed project will signify a reduction of about 8% of CO2 emissions from the transport sector in Managua when compared to the baseline scenario, which is equivalent to more than 2 millions tons of CO2 in 20 years.
4. The GEF project will support the implementation of an environmentally sustainable transport system in Managua by achieving the following outcomes:
1) Implementation of a new legal and operational framework for public transportation in Managua
2) Implementation of a Bus Rapid Transport (BRT) system
3) Improved land-use planning and traffic management in Managua
4) Development of a Cycling Paths Network Construction Program
5) Capacity Building, Knowledge Management and Monitoring of Project Impacts
B - Country ownership
1. Country Eligibility
5. Nicaragua has signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in December 1994, and is working to fulfill its obligations in the context of this treaty. Within this framework, the National Committee on Climate Change (CNCC) was created in 1999 as a consulting body among the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MARENA) and other institutions and sectors in the country.
6. Nicaragua prepared its First National Communication to the Convention in 2001, which included the National Survey of Greenhouse Gases. It included an assessment of the impact of climate change, along with an analysis for the sectors of hydroelectricity, forest resources and human health. A National Plan of Action for Climate Change was developed as part of the Report. Nicaragua has recently started the preparation of the Second National Communication to the Convention, which is to be finalized by the end of 2007.
2. Country DRivenness
7. The National Development Plan (PND) presented by the Nicaraguan Government in the year 2004, is an ambitious program to enhance the country’s competitiveness, economic development and social welfare. Within this Plan, a number of activities take high priorities, including improvements to the transport sector through the construction of new highways and roads and the improvement of public transport systems.
8. The Integral Transport Plan for the City of Managua, developed in 1999 with Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA) financing, asserts that the city needs to adopt and implement an integral public transportation program, and recommends the construction of three Bus Rapid Transport (BRT) corridors as one of the most important investments for the improvement of urban public transport.
9. Over the past five years, a number of studies have been developed in order to find alternative solutions for the reform of the public transport system, among them:
· The Feasibility Study for a Busway Municipal System in Managua, financed by the Inter American Development Bank (IADB) and developed by the consulting group EPYPSA-CORASCO, July 2001.
· The Action Plan for the Implementation of the North Corridor Busway System in Managua, financed by United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and developed by the consulting firm AKIRIS, December 2004. This BRT corridor represents the first stage of a long-term program for the modernization of bus transportation in Managua.
10. Besides these studies, the Municipal Authorities, through the Institute for the Regulation of Transport in the Municipality of Managua (IRTRAMMA), have developed additional studies and diagnoses that characterize the operational conditions of the transport sector in Managua, such as the numbers of passengers, the public transport fleet registration, and cost recovery analysis in order to determine transport fares under several possible scenarios.
11. The proposed project has been designed and prepared in accordance with national priorities (National Development Plan, 2004-2010) and municipal transport programs (Integral Transport Plan for the City of Managua, 1999). Commitment and ownership by the Nicaraguan Government and the Municipality of Managua is high. The proposed project has been designed in close coordination with IRTRAMMA, MARENA and the UNDP Country Office.
C – Program and Policy Conformity
1. Program Designation and Conformity
12. The GEF project will promote an integrated approach to public transport planning that addresses global environmental concerns in the context of the city’s transport needs, thus resulting in an overall reduction of GHG emissions in the urban transport sector.
13. This intervention falls under the strategic priorities of the GEF, specifically under Operational Program OP11 “Promoting Environmentally Sustainable Transport” and Strategic Priority CC 6: “Modal Shifts in Urban Transport and Clean Vehicle Fuel Technologies”.
C.2. Project Design
BASELINE
27
Urban Transport in Managua
14. Managua, the capital city of Nicaragua, has an estimated population of 1.4 million inhabitants and an annual population growth rate of 2.8%. The urban area holds almost 25% of the total population of the country and concentrates over 70% of the national industrial sector. As a result, the city is experiencing rapid and disorganized urban growth.
15. Managua is the Central American capital city with the most problems for the daily mobilization of drivers and pedestrians due to, among others, the accelerated growth of vehicle registration, insufficient traffic signals, and lack of vial education. Private car registration at the national level is around 252,000 vehicles, of which 170,000 circulate in Managua. There are approximately 2,300 urban buses in the city which transport an average of 740,000 passengers per day (37% of motorized transport demand) over 34 bus routes. These buses are operated by two private enterprises and 25 cooperative enterprises.
16. The City of Managua has severe structural and operational problems in its public transport system, which in turn causes deficient service and quality, high index of accidents, and reduced quality living standards for its inhabitants. The present public transport is anarchic and has a low quality of service. IRTRAMMA, the municipal entity in charge of regulating the urban transport system, lacks technical and economical resources to implement adequate planning, regulation and control of the transport on behalf of the municipal authorities. Without a widespread public transport reform in the City of Managua, the modal share of buses in the urban mobility is expected to drop below 30% of motorized transport in the next 15 years. This will have strong impacts in terms of air pollutants emissions both due to the shift to private cars and the weak financial capacity of bus companies to maintain vehicles and replace older buses.
Transport related CO2 emissions in Managua
17. The First National Communication to UNFCCC was prepared with 1994 as the reference year. The total CO2 emissions due to energy uses was 2,374,000 tons per year, emitted by the following sectors: energy industry (902,000 tons), transport sector (842,000 tons), manufacturing industry and construction (369,000 tons), commercial, institutional and public sector (151,000 tons), agriculture, residential and others (110,000 tons). Thus, the transport sector accounted for 35% of the total emissions due to energy uses.
18. According to the results of several surveys[1], local air pollutants (NOx, Lead, PM10) are well below the standard limit values of atmospheric concentration, except for Ozone. In the short and medium term, air quality in the City of Managua can be evaluated as non critical. However, projections indicate that, without improvements in public transportation, the number of private vehicles will increase substantially. In this scenario, the level and concentration of local air pollutants will increase, especially if there are no changes in vehicle maintenance standards and controls. In today’s context, however, the mitigation of GHG emissions in the urban transport is the main environmental challenge, thus making it relevant and opportune to implement a sustainable transport program that addresses both public transport reform (through a strong BRT development program) and the promotion of NMT transport modes.
19. There is a need to update the GHG emissions information, because the available data used in the First National Communication to UNFCCC is already ten years old. During the PDF-A phase of this project, CO2 emissions were estimated using per capita indicators published in the Human Development Report (UNDP, 2004). For the transport sector, the energy balances published by the Latin American Energy Organization (OLADE) were used. These estimates indicate that the national transport sector represented 39% of the energy end-uses in 2004, instead of 35% in 1994. Finally, the CO2 emissions due to the transport sector in Managua were estimated, using the vehicle registration, average annual mileage and IPCC emissions indicators, as well as specific indicators included in several air pollution surveys in other Latin American cities[2], when data was not available for Managua.
20. Table 1 below shows the preliminary results. The national transport sector represented CO2 emissions for an amount of 1,325,000 tons per year in 2004, of which the transport sector in Managua is estimated around 890,000 tons per year (67% of the total). Both private cars and taxis concentrated 85% of transport emissions in the capital city (755,000 tons per year), meanwhile urban buses amounted to 110,000 tons per year (12% of the total).
Table 1: CO2 emissions in Nicaragua – 1994-2004
21. These figures point out a significant participation of buses in transport air pollution in the City of Managua. Consequently, the implementation of a modern public transport system (BRT) will have significant impacts in terms of GHG emissions mitigation, as part of a long-term air quality strategy relying on efficient modal shifts from private cars to public transport and NMT modes.
22. The Baseline scenario takes into account historical trends in urban mobility. Over the next 25 years, the private cars registration is expected to increase 182%, while the growth in urban population and transport demand is expected to reach 93% and 100%, respectively. Consequently, the share of private cars and taxis will increase from 44% to 51% of total urban mobility, resulting in a reduction of public transport modal share. It is worth mentioning that both pedestrians and bicycles will reduce their participation, due to the increase of motorized transport modes. In this Baseline scenario, the bicycle mode is supposed to drop to round 1% of the daily trips.