Carleton Retention and Graduation Rates

In light of recent reports of the six-year graduation rate of Carleton’s African-American students from the entering cohort of 2000 relative to white students in the same cohort (a 24 percentage point differential), it is instructive to see those numbers in context. At the risk of offering too much data, the following provides some comparison across ethnic groups and some comparison across time.

Each row in Tables 1-4 follows an entering cohort across time. For example, in Table 1 the cohort of African-American students entering Carleton in the Fall of 2001 retained 90% of their cohort after their first year, 73% after their second year (relative to the full cohort), 63% after their third year, and graduated 70% with the remainder of their class. No other students from this cohort have graduated since then. The columns in the “Percent of Cohort Graduating in Spring of 4th Year” are shaded because they represent the standard model of students graduating with their class. The remaining cells that are shaded represent the most recent year’s data for that cohort (e.g. the 2004 African-American student cohort has a retention rate of 89% as of the Fall of 2007-08 – their 4th year; the 2005 African-American student cohort has a retention rate of 84% as of the Fall of 2007-08 – their 3rd year).

Each column in Table 5 represents the total attrition rate during that academic year (literally the percentage of students that were enrolled in the fall of that academic year and not enrolled in the fall of the following academic year). This same information is graphed in Figure 1.

Table 1

African-American Student Retention Rates
Year Cohort Entered Carleton / Percent of Cohort at Start of Fall 1st Year / Percent of Cohort at Start of Fall 2nd Year / Percent of Cohort at Start of Fall 3rd Year / Percent of Cohort at Start of Fall 4th Year / Percent of Cohort Graduating in Spring of 4th Year / Percent of Cohort Graduating in Spring of 5th Year / Percent of Cohort Graduating in Spring of 6th Year
1992 / 100% / 94% / 76% / 59% / 59% / 76% / 76%
1993 / 100% / 75% / 50% / 38% / 50% / 63% / 63%
1994 / 100% / 91% / 77% / 77% / 68% / 77% / 86%
1995 / 100% / 88% / 81% / 81% / 75% / 75% / 75%
1996 / 100% / 85% / 69% / 69% / 62% / 62% / 69%
1997 / 100% / 83% / 67% / 58% / 33% / 67% / 67%
1998 / 100% / 91% / 91% / 74% / 57% / 65% / 65%
1999 / 100% / 88% / 56% / 50% / 50% / 56% / 63%
2000 / 100% / 100% / 100% / 92% / 77% / 100% / 100%
2001 / 100% / 90% / 73% / 63% / 70% / 70% / 70%
2002 / 100% / 93% / 82% / 68% / 68% / 75%
2003 / 100% / 94% / 94% / 91% / 83%
2004 / 100% / 100% / 89% / 89%
2005 / 100% / 97% / 84%
2006 / 100% / 100%

Table 2

White Student Retention Rates
Year Cohort Entered Carleton / Percent of Cohort at Start of Fall 1st Year / Percent of Cohort at Start of Fall 2nd Year / Percent of Cohort at Start of Fall 3rd Year / Percent of Cohort at Start of Fall 4th Year / Percent of Cohort Graduating in Spring of 4th Year / Percent of Cohort Graduating in Spring of 5th Year / Percent of Cohort Graduating in Spring of 6th Year
1992 / 100% / 95% / 92% / 87% / 83% / 88% / 89%
1993 / 100% / 92% / 89% / 87% / 82% / 89% / 90%
1994 / 100% / 96% / 92% / 90% / 86% / 89% / 90%
1995 / 100% / 96% / 93% / 92% / 88% / 91% / 91%
1996 / 100% / 93% / 89% / 86% / 83% / 86% / 86%
1997 / 100% / 100% / 98% / 96% / 88% / 91% / 92%
1998 / 100% / 97% / 95% / 92% / 89% / 92% / 92%
1999 / 100% / 97% / 94% / 90% / 83% / 88% / 89%
2000 / 100% / 97% / 95% / 94% / 89% / 92% / 93%
2001 / 100% / 97% / 96% / 94% / 92% / 94% / 95%
2002 / 100% / 98% / 97% / 95% / 92% / 94%
2003 / 100% / 99% / 96% / 94% / 92%
2004 / 100% / 98% / 95% / 93%
2005 / 100% / 97% / 93%
2006 / 100% / 98%

Table 3

Hispanic Student Retention Rates
Year Cohort Entered Carleton / Percent of Cohort at Start of Fall 1st Year / Percent of Cohort at Start of Fall 2nd Year / Percent of Cohort at Start of Fall 3rd Year / Percent of Cohort at Start of Fall 4th Year / Percent of Cohort Graduating in Spring of 4th Year / Percent of Cohort Graduating in Spring of 5th Year / Percent of Cohort Graduating in Spring of 6th Year
1992 / 100% / 95% / 79% / 68% / 68% / 74% / 74%
1993 / 100% / 93% / 89% / 85% / 70% / 85% / 89%
1994 / 100% / 100% / 83% / 75% / 75% / 75% / 79%
1995 / 100% / 100% / 79% / 74% / 74% / 79% / 79%
1996 / 100% / 94% / 89% / 78% / 67% / 78% / 78%
1997 / 100% / 80% / 70% / 65% / 70% / 70% / 70%
1998 / 100% / 93% / 93% / 93% / 86% / 86% / 86%
1999 / 100% / 95% / 80% / 70% / 70% / 75% / 75%
2000 / 100% / 95% / 84% / 84% / 79% / 89% / 89%
2001 / 100% / 92% / 92% / 88% / 88% / 92% / 92%
2002 / 100% / 95% / 90% / 85% / 85% / 90%
2003 / 100% / 94% / 82% / 76% / 71%
2004 / 100% / 93% / 89% / 82%
2005 / 100% / 100% / 97%
2006 / 100% / 96%

Table 4

Asian-American Student Retention Rates
Year Cohort Entered Carleton / Percent of Cohort at Start of Fall 1st Year / Percent of Cohort at Start of Fall 2nd Year / Percent of Cohort at Start of Fall 3rd Year / Percent of Cohort at Start of Fall 4th Year / Percent of Cohort Graduating in Spring of 4th Year / Percent of Cohort Graduating in Spring of 5th Year / Percent of Cohort Graduating in Spring of 6th Year
1992 / 100% / 98% / 94% / 90% / 82% / 88% / 88%
1993 / 100% / 93% / 86% / 82% / 75% / 84% / 89%
1994 / 100% / 100% / 94% / 91% / 89% / 89% / 89%
1995 / 100% / 95% / 88% / 85% / 73% / 85% / 90%
1996 / 100% / 98% / 93% / 91% / 89% / 89% / 89%
1997 / 100% / 93% / 88% / 88% / 80% / 85% / 85%
1998 / 100% / 94% / 86% / 84% / 80% / 82% / 82%
1999 / 100% / 95% / 88% / 85% / 76% / 80% / 83%
2000 / 100% / 100% / 97% / 92% / 82% / 92% / 92%
2001 / 100% / 98% / 96% / 96% / 91% / 91% / 91%
2002 / 100% / 98% / 93% / 93% / 84% / 89%
2003 / 100% / 91% / 89% / 85% / 87%
2004 / 100% / 96% / 96% / 92%
2005 / 100% / 98% / 97%
2006 / 100% / 100%

Table 5

Percentage of Students Enrolled in Fall of Year NOT Enrolled in Fall of Next Year
Year / African-American / White / Hispanic / Asian-American
1994-95 / 17% / 4% / 5% / 4%
1995-96 / 15% / 3% / 7% / 6%
1996-97 / 7% / 4% / 12% / 4%
1997-98 / 11% / 2% / 12% / 5%
1998-99 / 10% / 3% / 11% / 5%
1999-00 / 7% / 2% / 4% / 5%
2000-01 / 19% / 3% / 8% / 3%
2001-02 / 8% / 3% / 10% / 2%
2002-03 / 12% / 1% / 2% / 3%
2003-04 / 10% / 2% / 5% / 4%
2004-05 / 5% / 2% / 8% / 2%
2005-06 / 5% / 2% / 3% / 2%
2006-07 / 5% / 3% / 5% / 2%

Figure 1

Carleton Retention Rates, November 5, 2007

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