RA I/TCC-XIX/Doc. 6.1(1), p. 1
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION______
RA I TROPICAL CYCLONE COMMITTEE
FOR THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN
NINETEENTH SESSION
NAIROBI, KENYA
20 TO 24SEPTEMBER 2010 / RA I/TCC-XIX/Doc. 6.1(1)
(19.VII.2010)
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ITEM 6.1
Original: ENGLISH
REVIEW OF THE TECHNICAL PLAN AND ITS
IMPLEMENTATION PROGRAMME
Meteorological Component
Surface-based subsystem
(Submitted by the Secretariat)
Summary and Purpose of DocumentThis document provides information and proposals related to various aspects of the meteorological component to assist the Committee in its review of this component of its Technical Plan, which is aimed at strengthening the tropical cyclone forecasting and warning system.
ACTION PROPOSED
The Tropical Cyclone Committee is invited to:
(a)Note the information given in this document and that provided by participants at the session;
(b)Review the meteorological component of its Technical Plan and its Implementation Programme (see reference), taking into account the proposals made, and recommend specific additions and other amendments to it, including indication of items to be given priority attention during 2010-2011; and,
(c)Decide further action to be taken to promote the improvements in the forecasting and warning of tropical cyclones and on supporting meteorological observation, telecommunications and data processing facilities and arrangements.
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Reference:Technical Plan
6.1METEOROLOGICAL COMPONENT (GLOBAL OBSERVING SYSTEM)
REGIONAL BASIC SYNOPTIC NETWORK (RBSN)
6.1.1.The Regional Basic Synoptic Network (RBSN), which is a minimum regional requirement to permit members to fulfil their responsibilities within the WMO World Weather Watch (WWW) Programme, has continued to provide a fundamental basis for weather analysis and forecast and for tropical cyclone warning services in Region I. Overall, the countries of the region are contributing to the implementation of the RBSN (June 2010) by operating a total of 838 stations (744 surface and 94 upper-air) out of which 95 stations are AWSs.
6.1.2.The Annual Global Monitoring (AGM) and the special MTN Monitoring (SMM) of the operation of the WWW, carried out respectively in October and on a quarterly basis each year, provides information on the performance level of the observing and telecommunications systems. A summary of the analysis following the results of the monitoring carried out during the intersessional period, showing the availability of the SYNOP and TEMP reports from the RBSN stations in the area of the RA I Tropical Cyclone Committee, are provided in the table below. It should be noted that the overall percentage of both the SYNOP and TEMP reports received had shown a decrease during this period. The availability of reports from some areas of the region was not yet satisfactory although some parts showed a favourable increase. Upper-air stations in six countries (Botswana, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, and Zimbabwe)in the area of the RA I Tropical Committee, remained silent during the period of the monitoring exercise 2008 –2009.
RBSN stations in the area of the RA I Tropical Cyclone Committee
Availability ofSYNOP / TEMP data at MTN centres (October 2008 - 2009)
(source: AGM-IWM-SMM)
2008 / 2009 / 2008 / 2009
Botswana / 12 / 57% / 12 / 70% / 5 / 0% / 5 / 0%
Comoros / 2 / 83% / 2 / 94% / - / - / - / -
FrenchIslands / 8 / 88% / 8 / 80% / 3 / 50% / 3 / 50%
Lesotho / 3 / 14% / 3 / 14% / - / - / - / -
Madagascar / 26 / 41% / 26 / 40% / 2 / 48% / 2 / 48%
Malawi / 2 / 36% / 2 / 32% / 1 / 0% / 1 / 0%
Mauritius / 6 / 93% / 6 / 89% / 2 / 25% / 2 / 0%
Mozambique / 15 / 44% / 15 / 50% / 3 / 0% / 3 / 0%
Namibia / 15 / 45% / 15 / 48% / 1 / 43% / 1 / 0%
South Africa / 87 / 88% / 87 / 86% / 10 / 68% / 10 / 57%
Seychelles / 3 / 33% / 3 / 33% / - / - / - / -
Swaziland / 1 / 42% / 1 / 37% / - / - / - / -
Tanzania / 16 / 71% / 16 / 72% / 3 / 0% / 3 / 4%
Zimbabwe / 17 / 18% / 17 / 8% / 2 / 0% / 2 / 0%
Total / 213 / 65% / 213 / 64% / 32 / 32% / 32 / 26%
6.1.3.It should be noted that the sustainability of basic networks in some parts of the region and the low availability of data from those networks remain an issue of concern which emphasizes the need to further strengthen basic networks, especially in developing countries. For more details on AGM and Special MTN monitoring results, see
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS
6.1.4.Currently,RAI has only one operational regional AMDAR programme, South Africa. The South African AMDAR programme operates aircraft from South African Airways and averages approximately 3,200 AMDAR report, 70 vertical soundings, per day. These data are mainly over Southern Africa and the surrounding oceans and is the main source of upper air data over these regions. The South African Weather Service has shown that AMDAR data has proven very useful with all operational forecasting applications. The European EUCOS AMDAR (E-AMDAR) Programme is continuing to provide AMDAR data to the region as part of its contribution the World Wide Weather Watch Programme.
6.1.5.NMHSs in the region that have expressed an interest, or are currently working towards implementing their own AMDAR programme include: Egypt, Kenya, Morocco, Namibia and Nigeria. The AMDAR Panel has also established the North African and Western Asian Pilot Project with the Moroccan Meteorological Service agreeing to undertake the role of Project Leader for the new Pilot Project.
6.1.6.ASECNA and the E-AMDAR programme are currently developing a cooperative development that will help identify additional European based aircraft flying into the ASECNA area that could be activated for AMDAR. At present ASECNA and the E-AMDAR programme has identified that Royal Air Morocco, Brussels Airlines or Kenya Air Ways has adequate coverage over the ASECNA area. Further work is currently underway to establish whether any of these airlines are AMDAR compatible.
MARINE AND OCEAN METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS
6.1.7.Implementation of marine observing network in the region has continued to expand, thanks to prominent role of Members in the region, as they continue to provide extensive support for ocean observation programmes. Dramatic progress has been made in the implementation of the ocean observing networks in the last decade. The plan was based on the initial system targets identified in the ocean chapter of the GCOS Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in support of the UNFCCC (GCOS92). The JCOMM implementation goals will be updated according to the latest developments with regard to (i) the Progress Report on the Implementation of the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC 2004-2008; (ii) the outcome and recommendations from the OceanObs’09 Conference; (iii) the outcome of the Third World Climate Conference (WCC-3); (iv) non-climate requirements arising from the CBS Rolling Review of Requirements, including Statements of Guidance and gap analysis, and (v) the forthcoming update to GCOS-92, the implementation strategy for the global climate observing system. Overall, the ocean in situ observing system is now 61% implemented. All data are being made freely available to all Members in realtime. However, progress has been slowing down recently, and completion will require substantial additional yearly investment by the Members/Member States.
6.1.8.The global surface buoy network coordinated through the Data Buoy Cooperation Panel (DBCP) is now essentially complete and being sustained (1630 global units in May 2010). Efforts are being made to increase the number of surface drifters reporting sea level pressure (739 global units in May 2010).Regions such as the North-West Indian Ocean and the central Arabian Sea appear relatively data sparse. Cost-effective technology exists for surface drifters equipped with thermistor strings and designed to be deployed in hurricane conditions. However, no such drifters are being deployed operationally in area of interest from the Regional Association.
6.1.9.The Argo profiling float programme reached completion in November 2007 (3161 global units in May 2010) and is now providing essential upper ocean thermal data for Tropical Cyclones research, monitoring and forecast activities. However, Argo presently falls short of its design requirements as some of the floats are in marginal seas or at high latitudes (which are outside the Argo array design), some regions are overpopulated and some floats are not providing quality profile data. Regions such as the Mozambique Channel and the Gulf of Aden appear poorly covered. Efforts are necessary to ensure adequate geographical coverage and ensure sustainability of the array (requiring around 800 new floats each year).
6.1.10.The Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction (RAMA) is still developing in the Indian Ocean to complete coverage of the tropical oceans - the heat engine of global climate and weather patterns. In mid-2010, the number of ATLAS moorings in RAMA is now 51% complete for a target of 47 units. The primary datatelemetered in real time from surface moorings in the arrays are daily or hourly mean surface measurements (wind speed and direction, air temperature, relative humidity and sea surface temperature and salinity) and subsurface temperatures. Moorings provide optional enhanced measurements, which include precipitation, short and long wave radiation, barometric pressure, salinity, and ocean currents. These enhancements provide heat, moisture and momentum flux measurements at 4 Tropical Indian ocean moorings. High temporal resolution (10-min or hourly) measurements are available in delayed mode.
6.1.11.Voluntary Observing Ships (VOS) provide for marine meteorological observations in the Gulf of Aden, and the region between Cape Town and Singapore. However the Western Indian Ocean region remains data sparse. Efforts are being made to increase the number of Automatic Weather Stations installed on ships to improve realtime reporting for weather forecasting and climate. The VOS Climate Project (VOSClim) which is delivering high quality observational data for climate related applications exceeded its target of 250 ships and has now been integrated into the wider VOS as a new class of vessel. However, efforts remain to be made to provide for the required VOSClim additional information.
6.1.12.The Ship Of Opportunity Programme (SOOP) also provides for valuable upper ocean thermal data through 41 global high resolution and frequently repeated XBT lines now fully occupied (target is 51 lines). Approximately 22,000 XBTs are deployed every year under the Ship of Opportunity Programme (SOOP), of which 20,000 are distributed in real-time on GTS to end users. Approximately 4000 XBTs are made yearly in the Indian Ocean.
6.1.13.The Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) now provides for 105 global units equipped with GPS and reporting in near real-time (62% complete).
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