David Clarke • Understanding Patterns of Action • Page 1
UNDERSTANDING PATTERNS OF ACTION
Third Year Module
Professor David Clarke, School of Psychology
'Starter references' are in bold.
Quotations to think about
"He has only half learned the art of reading who has not added to it the more refined art of skipping and skimming." Lord Balfour (Prime Minister, 1902 - 05).
"If everyone is thinking alike, someone isn't thinking." Gen George S Patten, US Army.
The physicist Wolfgang Pauli divided incorrect answers into "wrong, very wrong, and not even wrong". (Times Higher Education, 17/11/11.)
"The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one that heralds new discoveries, is not 'Eureka!' (I found it!) but 'That's funny ...'" (Isaac Asimov)
" . . . experiments rarely tell us what we think they're going to tell us. That's the dirty secret of science." Kevin Dunbar,
General reading
Clarke, D. D. and Crossland, J. Y.(1985) Action systems. London: Methuen. Also available to download from the Web, at . . .
Clarke, D. D. (2008) Actions in Time: A 'virtual book'.
van den Brink-Budgen, R. (2000) Critical Thinking for Students: Learn the Skills of Critical Assessment and Effective Argument. 3rd Revised edition. Begbroke, Oxfordshire: How To Books. ISBN-10: 1857036344.
Lecture 1: Introduction and overview - Concepts of action and structure
APA (1992) Ethical principles of psychologists and code of conduct. American Psychologist, 47, 1597-1611.
Behavioural and Brain Sciences. [Recent issues. See main articles and peer commentaries on any topic relating to this course.]
Beishon, J. (1971) Systems. Technology Foundation Course Unit 1. [T 100 1] Milton Keynes: Open University Press.
Blakemore, C. and Greenfield, S. (eds.)(1987) Mindwaves. Oxford: Blackwells.
BPS (1995) Code of conduct. The Psychologist, 8(10), 452-453.
Clarke, D. D. (1987) Fundamental problems with fundamental research. Philosophica, 40, 23-61.
Cohen, D. (1977) Psychologists on psychology. (Paperback 1985. London: Ark.)
Elms, A. C. (1975) The crisis of confidence in social psychology. American Psychologist, 30, 967-76.
ESRC.
Feyerabend, P. (1975) Against method. Verso.
Gale, A. (1997) The reconstruction of British psychology. The Psychologist, 10(1), 11-15.
Gall, J (1979) System-antics: How systems work and especially how they fail. London: Fontana.
Gollwitzer, P. M., & Bargh, J. A. (Eds.) (1996). The psychology of action: Linking cognition and motivation to behavior. New York: Guilford Press.
Harré, R. and Secord, P. F. (1972) The explanation of social behaviour. Oxford: Blackwells.
Harré, R. (1977) The ethogenic approach. In L. Berkowitz (ed.) Advances in experimental social psychology, 10. New York: Academic Press.
Harré, R. (1979) Social being. Oxford: Blackwells.
Harré, R., Clarke, D. D. and de Carlo, N. (1985) Motives and Mechanisms. London: Methuen.
Hewstone, M., Manstead, A. S. R. and Stroebe, W. (1997) The Blackwell Reader in Social Psychology. Oxford: Blackwells. ISBN 0-631-19997-7.
Hofstadter, D. R. (1979) Gödel, Escher and Bach: An eternal golden braid. Harmondsworth: Penguin.
Hofstadter, D. R. (1985) Metamagical themas: Questing for the essence of mind and pattern. Harmondsworth: Penguin.
Hofstadter, D. R. and Dennett, D. C. (1981) The mind's I: Fantasies and reflections on self and soul. Harmondsworth: Penguin.
Johnson-Laird, P. N. (1988) The computer and the mind: An introduction to cognitive science. London: Fontana.
Kuhn, T. (1962) The structure of scientific revolutions. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Liebert, R. M. and Spiegler, M. D. (1987) Personality: Strategies and issues - 5th edition. Chicago: Dorsey.
Manicas, P. T. and Secord, P. F. (1983) Implications for psychology of the new philosophy of science. American Psychologist, 38, 399-413.
Nature - International weekly journal of science.
Norman, D., & Shallice, T., 1986: Attention to action: Willed and automatic control of behavior. In Davidson, R., Schwartz, G., and Shapiro, D., (eds.) Consciousness and Self Regulation: Advances in Research and Theory, Volume 4. Plenum, New York, NY. pp. 1-18.
NVC at U of Cal.
Popper, K. (1972) The logic of scientific discovery. (3rd edition). London: Hutchinson.
Psychology journals indexed in Psychological Abstracts and PsycInfo.
Science Connections.
Scientific American.
Searle, J. (1984) Minds, brains and science. London: BBC.
Social interaction etc.
Waddington, C. H. (1977) Tools for thought. St. Albans: Paladin.
Lecture 2: Action and language
Atkinson, J. M. and Drew., P. (1979). Order in Court: The Organisation of Verbal Interaction in Judicial Settings. Atlantic Highlands, NJ: Humanities Press.
Austin, J. L. (1962) How to do things with words. Oxford: Clarendon.
Brown, S., Martinez, M. J., & PARSONS, L. M. (2006). Music and language side by side in the brain: A PET study of generating melodies and sentences. European Journal of Neuroscience, 23, 2791-2803.
Chomsky, N. (1980) Rules and representations. Oxford: Blackwells.
Clarke and Crossland, Action Systems, Chapters 2 & 3.
Clarke, D. D. (1979) The linguistic analogy. In G.P.Ginsburg (ed.) Emerging strategies in social psychological research. London: Wiley.
Clarke, D. D. (1980) Developments in the syntax of action. In M. Brenner (ed.) The structure of action. Oxford: Blackwells.
Clarke, D. D.(1983) Language and action. Oxford: Pergamon.
Coulthard, M. (1977). An Introduction to Discourse Analysis. London: Longman.
Edmondson, W. (1981). Spoken Discourse: A Model for Analysis. London: Longman.
Garfinkel, H. (1967). Studies in Ethnomethodology. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
Gazdar, G. (1981). Speech-act assignment. In A. K. Joshi, B. L. Webber, and I. A. Sag (eds.) Elements of Discourse Understanding. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Grice, H. P. (1975). Logic and conversation. In P. Cole and J. Morgan (Eds.), Syntax and Semantics. New York, NY: Academic Press.
Gumperz, J. (1982). Discourse Strategies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Halliday, M. A. K. (1973). Explorations in the Functions of Language. London: Arnold.
Kirkland, J. (1977). Perception of equally-different computer-drawn mirth-like schematic faces. It's A Funny Thing Humour. A. J. Chapman and H. C. Foot, Pergamon Press: 457-459. [Seems to show 'categorical perception' for laughter.]
Labov, W., & Fanshel, D. (1977). Therapeutic Discourse: Psychotherapy as Conversation. New York: Academic Press.
Leech, G. (1983) Principles of pragmatics. London: Longman.
Levinson, S. (1983). Pragmatics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Norris, C. (1987) Derrida. Glasgow: Fontana.
Pollak, S. D. and Kistler, D. J. (2002) Early experience is associated with the development of categorical representations for facial expressions of emotion. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 99(13), 9072–9076.
Potter, J. and Wetherell, M. (1987) Discourse and social psychology: Beyond attitudes and behaviour. London: Sage.
Rawls, J. (1955). Two concepts of rules. Philosophical Review, 64, 3-32.
Robey, D.(ed.)(1973) Structuralism. Oxford: Clarendon.
Saussure, F. de. (1974). Course in General Linguistics. London: Fontana. [First published in 1916.]
Schegloff, E. (1972). Sequencing in conversational openings. In J. Gumperz and D. Hymes (Ed.), Directions in Sociolinguistics: The Ethnography of Communication. New York, NY: Academic Press.
Searle, J. (1969). Speech Acts: An Essay in the Philosophy of Language. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press.
Searle, J. (1980). The intentionality of intention and action. Cognitive Science, (4), 47-70.
Searle, J. R. (1976). The classification of illocutionary acts. Language in Society, 5, 1-24.
Searle, J. R., & Vanderveken, P. (1985). A Logic of Illocutionary Acts. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Sebeok, T. A., Hayes, A. S. and Bateson, M. C. (1964) Approaches to semiotics. The Hague: Mouton. [Out of print].
Streeck, J. (1980). Speech acts in interaction: A critique of Searle. Discourse Processes, 3, 133-54.
Turner, R. (1962). Words, utterances and activities. In R. Turner (Ed.) Ethnomethodology: Selected readings. Harmondsworth, Middlesex: Penguin.
Van Dijk, T. A.(1980) Macrostructures: An interdisciplinary study of global structures in discourse, interaction and cognition. Hillsdale: Erlbaum.
Westman, R. S. (1977) Environmental languages and the functional bases of animal behaviour. In B. Hazlett (ed.) Quantitative methods in animal behaviour. London: Academic Press.
Lecture 3: Systems of action
Axelrod, R. (1984) The evolution of cooperation. New York: Basic Books.
Ball, P. (2010) The Earth Simulator: Packing the world of human interactions into a computer could help solve our planet's woes. New Scientist, Vol 208, No 2784, October 30, 48-51.
Barton, S. (1994) Chaos, self-organisation, and psychology. American Psychologist, 49, 5-14.
Beishon, J. and Peters, G. (1972) Systems behaviour. London: Harper and Row.
Blackmore, S. (1999) The meme machine. Oxford: OUP.
Broadbent. D. E. (1977) Levels, hierarchies and the locus of control. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 29, 181-201.
Carver, C. S. and Scheier, M. F. (2003) Self-regulatory perspectives on personality. In Millon, T. and Lerner, M. J. (eds) Handbook of Psychology, Volume 5: Personality and social psychology. John Wiley & Sons.
Clarke and Crossland, Action Systems, Chapter 4.
Colman, A. (1995) Game theory and its applications. London: Routledge. (2nd edition.)
Colman, A. Game theory and experimental games. International series in experimental social psychology, No 4. Oxford: Pergamon.
Cooper, D. L. (1998) Linguistic attractors: The cognitive dynamics of language acquisition and change. Amsterdam: Benjamins. Human Cognitive Processing Series, No. 2.
Dawkins, R. (1976) Hierarchical organisation. In P. P. G. Bateson and R. A. Hinde (eds.) Growing points in ethology. Cambridge: CUP.
Dawkins, R. (1986) The blind watchmaker. Harlow: Longmans. [See esp. pp. 11-14 for an explanation of 'hierarchical reductionism.]
Denman, C. (1994) Strange attractors and dangerous liaisons: A response to Priel and Schreiber ‘On psychoanalysis and non-linear dynamics: The paradigm of bifurcation’. British Journal of Medical Psychology, 67(3), 219-222.
Eiser, J. R. (1993) Attitudes, chaos and the connectionist mind. Oxford: Blackwells.
Fodor, J. A. (1983) The Modularity of mind: An essay on faculty psychology. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
Faure, P. and Korn, H. (2001) Is there chaos in the brain? I: Concepts of non-linear dynamics and methods of investigation. Life Sciences, 324, 773-793.
Friedman, B. H. (2007) An autonomic flexibility–neurovisceral integration model of anxiety and cardiac vagal tone, Biological Psychology Volume 74, Issue 2, February 2007, Pages 185–199. [For phase-space diagram of bipolar disorder.]
Gallistel, C. R. (1980) The organisation of action: A new synthesis. Hillsdale: Erlbaum.
Gardner, S. (1994) Commentary on Priel and Schreiber ‘On psychoanalysis and non-linear dynamics’ British Journal of Medical Psychology, 67(3), 223-225.
Gleick, J.( 1988) Chaos: Making a new science. London: Heinemann.
Granic, I. (2005) Timing is everything: Developmental psychopathology from a dynamic systems perspective.Developmental Review Volume 25, Issues 3–4, September–December 2005, Pages 386–407 .
Greenfield, P. M. (1991) Language, tools and the brain: The ontogeny and phylogeny of hierarchically organised sequential behaviour. Behavioural and Brain Sciences, 14, 531-595.
Guastello, S. J. (2001) Non-linear dynamics in psychology. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, 6, 11-29.
Guastello, S. J. (2002) Managing emergent phenomena: Non-linear dynamics in work organisations. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
Karoly, P. (1993) Mechanisms of self-regulation: A systems view. Annual Review of Psychology, 44, 23-51.
Korn, H. and Faure, P. (2003) Is there chaos in the brain? II: Experimental evidence and related models. Comptes Rendus Biologies, 326, 787-840.
Lumsden, C. J. and Wilson, E. O.(1981) Genes, mind and culture. Cambridge, Mass: Harvard University Press.
Mandel, D. R. (1995) Chaos theory, sensitive dependence, and the logic equation. American Psychologist, 50(2), 106-107.
Masterpasqua, F and Perna, P. A. (eds)(1997) The psychological meaning of chaos. Washington: American Psychological Association.
Maynard Smith, J. (1978) The evolution of behaviour. Scientific American, 239(3), 136-45.
Mendenhall, M. E., Macomber, J. H., Gregersen, H. and Cutright M. (1998) Non-linear dynamics: A new perspective on IHRM research and practice in the 21st century. Human Resource Management Review, 8(1), 5-22. [IHRM is International Human Resource Management.]
Miller, G. A., Galanter, E. and Pribram, K. L. (1960) Plans and the structure of behaviour. New York: Holt, Reinhart and Winston.
Newell, A. and Simon, H. (1972) Human Problem Solving. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
O'Connor, J. & McDermott, I. (1997) The Art Of Systems Thinking: Essential Skills for Creativity and Problem Solving. London: Thorsons (Harper Collins).
Priel, B. and Schreiber, G. (1994) On psychoanalysis and non-linear dynamics: The paradigm of bifurcation. British Journal of Medical Psychology, 67(3), 209-218.
Ruthen, R. (1993) Adapting to complexity. Scientific American, January, 110-117. [Including Game Theory]
Simon, H. (1981) Sciences of the artificial. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press. 2nd edition.
Society for Chaos Theory in Psychology & Life Sciences:
Stewart, I. N. and Pegeroy, R. (1983) Catastrophe modelling in psychology. Psychological Bulletin, 94(2), 336-362.
Vallacher, R. R., read, S. J., and Nowak, A. (2002) The dynamical perspective in personality and social psychology. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 6(4), 264-273.
Vickers, G. (1983) Human systems are different. London: Harper and Row.
Von Bertalanffy, L. (1968) General systems theory. New York: Braziller.
Zeeman, E. C. (1976) Catastrophe theory. Scientific American, 234(4), 65-83.
Also
And a very good film (especially the second half), which I may play before a lecture, or you can watch online:
Lectures 4 & 5: Action sequences
Also see references for topic 3.
Bakeman, R. and Gottman, J. M. (1986) Observing interaction: An introduction to sequence analysis. Cambridge: C.U.P.
Bakeman, R. and Quera, V. (2011) Sequential Analysis and Observational Methods for the Behavioral Sciences. Cambridge: CUP.
Beale, D., Cox, T., Clarke, D. D., Lawrence, C., and Leather, P. (1998) Temporal architecture of violent incidents. Journal of Occupational Health Psychology, 3(1), 65-82. ISSN 1076 8998.
Beale, D., Clarke, D. D., Cox, T., Leather, P. J. and Lawrence, C. (1999) Systems memory in violent incidents: Evidence from patterns of reoccurrence. Journal of Occupational Health Psychology, 4(3), 233-244. ISSN 1076 8998.
Briffa, M,. Hardy, I. C. W., Gammell, M. P., Jennings, D. J., Clarke, D. D. and Goubault, M. Analysis of animal contest data. In Ian C. W. Hardy and M. Briffa (eds) (2013) Animal Contests. Cambridge: CUP ISBN. 978-0-521-88710-6. [Chapter 4, Section 4.5.2.1, is a description of sequence analysis (by me!)].
Burnett, R. McGhee, P. and Clarke, D. D. (1987) Accounting for relationships: Explanation, representation and knowledge. London: Mehuens. [Chapter by Clarke.]
Canter, D. D. (1990) Fires and human behaviour. London: Fulton [Second edition].
Clarke and Crossland, Action Systems, Chapter 3.
Clarke, D. D. (1975) The use and recognition of sequential structure in dialogue. British Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology, 14, 333-339.
Clarke, D. D. (1982) The sequential analysis of action structure. In M. von Cranach, and R. Harré (eds.) The analysis of action. Cambridge: CUP.
Clarke, D. D. (1983) Language and action. Oxford: Pergamon.
Clarke, D. D. and Argyle, M. (1982) Conversation sequences. In C. Fraser and K. R. Scherer (eds.) Advances in the social psychology of language. Cambridge: CUP.
Clarke, D. D. , Forsyth, R. S. and Wright, R. L. (1998) Behavioural factors in accidents at road junctions: The use of a genetic algorithm to extract descriptive rules from police case files. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 30(2), 223-234. ISSN 0001-4575.
Clarke, D. D. , Forsyth, R. S. and Wright, R. L. (1998) Junction road accidents during cross-flow turns: A sequence analysis of police case files. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 31(1-2), 31-43. ISSN 0001-4575.
Clarke, D. D. , Forsyth, R. S. and Wright, R. L. (1998) Machine learning in road accident research: Decision trees describing road-accidents during cross-flow turns. Ergonomics, 41(7), 1060-1079. ISSN 0014-0139.
Clarke, D. D. and Letchford, A. N. (1998) Action rules extracted by machine induction from feature-coded self-reports. Journal of Social Behavior and Personality, 13(1), 33-50. ISSN 0886-1641.
Clarke, D. D., Ward, P. J. and Jones, J. (1998) Overtaking road-accidents: Differences in manoeuvre as a function of driver age. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 30(4), 455-467. ISSN 0001-4575.
Clarke, D. D., Ward, P. J. and Jones, J. (1999) Processes and countermeasures in overtaking road-accidents. Ergonomics, 42(6), 846-867. ISSN 0014-0139.
Dickman, H. R. (1963) The perception of behavioural units. In R. G. Barker (ed.) The stream of behaviour. New York: Appleton Century Crofts.
Gottman, J. M. (1979) Marital interaction. New York: Academic Press.
Gottman, J. M. and Roy, A. K. (1990) Sequential analysis: A guide for behavioral researchers. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Holland, J. H. (1992) Genetic algorithms. Scientific American, 267(1), July, 44-50.
Magnusson MS (2000), Discovering hidden time patterns in behavior: T-patterns and their detection. Behavior, Research Methods, Instruments & Computers 32, 93-110.
Moore, C. M. (1987) Group techniques for idea building. London: Sage.
Newtson, D. (1973) Attribution and the unit of perception of ongoing behaviour. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 28, 28-38.
Raush, H. L. (1965) Interaction sequences. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2(4), 487-499.
Sequential analysis references on the Web: The first 25 of 130+ and links to the rest are at May be superseded by …
Sharpe, T. & Koperwas, J. (2003) Behavior and Sequential Analysis: Principles and Practice. London: Sage. ISBN 0761925600.
Slater, P. J. B. 1973) Describing sequences of behaviour. In P. P. G. Bateson and P. H. Klopfer (eds.) Perspectives in ethology. New York: Plenum.
Taylor, P. J., Jacques, K., Giebels, E., Levine, M., Best, R., Winter, J. and Rossi, G. (2008) Analysing forensic processes: Taking time into account. Issues in Forensic Psychology 8, 45-57.
Thomas, A. P., Roger, D. and Bull, P. (1983) A sequential analysis of informal dyadic conversation using Markov chains. British Journal of Social Psychology, 22, 177-188.
Van Hooff, J. A. R. A. M.( 1973) A structural analysis of the social behaviour of a semi-captive group of chimpanzees. In M. von Cranach and I. Vine (eds.) Social communication and movement. London: Academic Press.
Lecture 6: Action forecasting
Armstrong, J. S. (1984). Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact. In S. Makridakis, A. Anderson, R. Carbone, R. Fildes, R. Lewandowski, J. Newton, E. Parzen, & R. Winkler (Eds.) The Forecasting Accuracy of Major Time Series Methods. New York: Wiley.
Armstrong, J. S. (1988). Research Needs in Forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 449-465.
Assimakopoulos, V., & Konida, A. (1992). An Object-Oriented Approach to Forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 8(2), 175-185.
Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control. San Francisco: Holden Day.
Chatfield, C. (1993). Neural Networks: Forecasting breakthrough or passing fad? International Journal of Forecasting, 9, 1-3.
Clarke, D. D. (1992) Qualitative judgemental forecasting methods for use in strategic decision making. In Proceedings of IDASCO '92: International Conference on Information-Decision-Action Systems in Complex Organisations. London: Institution of Electrical Engineers, Conference Publication, No. 353.
Clarke, D. D. (2004) ‘Structured Judgement Methods’ - The best of both worlds?’ In Todd, K. Z., Nerlich, B., McKeown, S. and Clarke D. D. (eds.) Mixing Methods in Psychology: The integration of qualitative and quantitative methods in theory and practice. Hove & New York: Psychology Press. ISBN 0-415-18649-8 (Hbk) ISBN 0-415-18650-1 (Pbk) Pp 81 – 100.
Clarke, D. D. and Blake, H. (1997) The inverse forecast effect. Journal of Social Behavior and Personality, 12(4), 999-1018. ISSN 0886 1641.
Clemen, R. (1989). Combining Forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography. International Journal of Forecasting, 5, 559-583.
Collopy, F., & Armstrong, J. S. (1992). Expert Opinions About Extrapolation and the Mystery of the Overlooked Discontinuities. International Journal of Forecasting, 8, 575-582.
Fischhoff, B. (1988). Judgemental Aspects of Forecasting - Needs and Possible Trends. International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 331-339.
Forecasting software:
Gardner, E. S., & Makridakis, S. (1988). The Future of Forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 325-330.
Harvey, N. (1990). Effects of Difficulty on Judgemental Probability Forecasting. Journal of Forecasting, 9, 373-387.
Hogarth, R. M. (1987) Judgement and choice: The psychology of decision. (2nd edition) New York: Wiley.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1973). On the Psychology of Prediction. Psychological Review, 80(4), 237-251.
Lagnado, D.A. & Sloman, S.A. (2006). Time as a guide to cause. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 32, 451-460.
Lawrence, M., Goodwin, P., O’Connor, M. & Önkal, D. (2006). Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years. International Journal of Forecasting, 22, 493-518.
Mahmoud, E., DeRoeck, R., Brown, R., & Rice, G. (1992). Bridging the Gap Between Theory and Practice in Forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 8(2), 251-267.
Makridakis, S. (1988) Metaforecasting: Ways of improving forecasting accuracy and usefulness. International Journal of Forecasting, 4(3), 467-491.
Makridakis, S., Anderson, A., Carbone, R., Fildes, R., Hibon, M., Lewandowski, R., Newton, J., Parzen, E., & Winkler, R. (1984). The Accuracy of Extrapolation (Time Series) Methods: Results of a Forecasting Competition. In S. Makridakis, A. Anderson, R. Carbone, R. Fildes, J. Newton, E. Parzen, & R. Winkler (Eds.) The Forecasting Accuracy of Major Time Series Methods. New York: Wiley.
Makridakis, S., Chatfield, C., Hibon, M., Lawrence, M., Mills, T., Ord, K., & Simmons, L. F. (1993). The M2-Competition: A real-time judgementally based forecasting study. International Journal of Forecasting, 9, 5-22.
Martino, J. P. (Ed.). (1972). An Introduction to Technological Forecasting. London: Gordon & Breach.
McMillan, D., Hastings, R. P., and Coldwell, J. (2004) Clinical and actuarial prediction of physical violence in a forensic intellectual disability hospital: A longitudinal study. Journal of Applied Research in Intellectual Disabilities, 17, 255–265.
Newbold, P., & Granger, C. W. J. (1977). Forecasting Economic Time Series. New York: Academic Press.
Nisbett, R. E., & Borgida, E. (1975). Attributions and the Psychology of Prediction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32, 932- 943.
O'Connell, S. (2010) "The man who sees the future" [Bruce Bueno de Mesquita] 'The predictioneer: The future according to Game Theory'. New Scientist, No2752 (20/3/10) p42-45.