Local Climate Impacts Profile (LCLIP) for the Omagh District Council area

June 2012

Acknowledgements

This report on the first local climate impact profile (LCLIP) in Northern Ireland was undertaken by the Chartered Institute of Environmental Health in Northern Ireland (CIEH NI) in partnership with Omagh District Council.

Authors: Colin Eskins, Gary McFarlane (CIEH), Dr Ian Leitch, Raymond Smyth (OmaghDC)

Other Contributors:Dr Joanna Wydenbach (CIEH), Jane O’Neill (OmaghDC)

and interviewees from 8 Departments as detailed below.

Arts & Tourism / Mr.Frank Sweeny
Building Control / Mr.Sean Kelly
Client Services / Mr.Kevin O’Gara
Corporate Services / Mr. Danny McSorley
Development / Mr.Harry Parkinson
Emergency planning coordinator
(WGEHS Environmental Health) / Ms.Joan M. McCaffrey
Environmental Health / Mr.David Gillis
Finance / Ms.Joan McCaffrey
Human Resources / Ms.Rosemary Rafferty

It is hoped that this report will assist Omagh District Council in developing a robust climate change adaptation strategy and may encourage other local authorities in Northern Ireland to do likewise.

Abbreviations

CCPBCivil Contingencies Policy Branch

CEChief Executive

CIEH NIChartered Institute of Environmental Health Northern Ireland

EHOEnvironmental Health Officer

EMSEnvironmental Management System

EPCOEmergency Planning Coordinating Officer

IPCCInternational Panel on Climate Change

LCLIPLocal Climate Impact Profile

NILGANorthern Ireland Local Government Association

OFMDFMOffice of First Minister and Deputy First Minister

PSNIPolice Service of Northern Ireland

SAMSustainable Audit Matrix

SEHOSenior Environmental Health Officer

WGEHSWestern Group Environmental Health Service

UKCIPUnited Kingdom Climate Impact Profile

Table of Contents

Acknowledgements

Abbreviations

Table of Contents

List of Figures

1.Introduction

1.1 Background

1.2 Benefits

1.3 Current UK overview

1.4 Climate change

1.5 Aim and objectives

2.Methodology

2.1 Phase 1: Media trawl

2.2 Interviews

3.Northern Ireland’s climate

3.1 Temperature

3.2 Sunshine

3.3 Rainfall

3.4 Snowfall

3.5 Wind

4. Omagh climate profile

4.1 Omagh

4.2 Temperature

4.3 Rainfall

4.4 Wind

4.5 Sunshine

4.6 Snowfall

4.7 Sleet/snowfall

5. UK Climate Projections ‘09

6.Media Trawl

6.1Strong winds

6.2Heavy rainfall/flooding

6.3High temperatures

6.4Frost, ice, snow

6.5Lightning

6.6High impact events

6.7 Tabulated media trawl- weather findings by type of event

6.7.1 Media trawl findings: heavy rainfall/flooding

6.7.2 Media trawl findings: strong winds

6.7.3 Media trawl findings: frost/ice/snow

6.7.4Media trawl findings: high temperatures

6.7.5 Media trawl findings: lightning

7.Council Departmental Interviews

8.Results

8.1 Impact of past weather related events

8.2Monitoring, recording or assessing the risks associated with severe weather

8.2.1Advance monitoring

8.2.2Investigative tools (to assess impacts)

8.2.3Planning for the future

8.2.4Suggestions as to how ODC might better prepare for dealing with future events. …………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

8.2.5Assessment of the impact that past weather events had had upon departmental operations

8.2.6Any future plans for stakeholder engagement on climate related events

8.2.7Disadvantaged groups

9.Deprivation

9.1Deprivation by Ward

10. Other Financial Costs

11.Discussion and Recommendations

11.1 Discussion

11.1.1 Departmental Reviews

11.1.2 Data recording

11.1.3 Partnerships

11.1.4 Vulnerable groups

11.2 Recommendations and next steps towards adaptation

List of Figures

Fig1: Summary of climate change projections for Northern Ireland to 2050 based on a medium scenario...... 9

Fig. 2:Pie chart illustrating the percentages of headlines, discovered during the media trawl of local newspapers, attributed to each extreme weather event occurring between January 2001 and December 2010...... 10

1

1.Introduction

1.1 Background

A Local Climate Impact Profile (LCLIP) is a tool which is intended to assist local authorities better understand the vulnerabilities of their particular area to the impacts of climate change. Such understanding is seen as a powerful catalyst to develop awareness within local authorities, as well as providing a useful starting point towards developing a climate change adaptation strategy.

In order to assess current vulnerabilities, there is a need to understand how and why the local authority area is affected by the weather and how this impinges on its ability to deliver services.

The methodology has been developed by the UK Climate Impacts Partnership(UKCIP). The UKCIP was established in 1997 to help co-ordinate scientific research into the impacts of climate change, and to help organisations adapt to those unavoidable impacts. UKCIP is based at the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford.

1.2 Benefits

An LCLIP is a starting point towards creating a climate change adaption strategy. It can help highlight problem areas and prepare the local authority to respond better to future events. It can also assist in raising awareness of potential impacts with key stakeholders, for example elected members, Councilstaff, local businesses and the general public. Using the findings from an LCLIP helps inform future planning and adaptation to ensure continuity of services and also to return cost savings in areas such as emergency provisions, preparing properties for winter, or minimising insurance claims.

1.3 Current UK overview

To date 106 councils in England have completed LCLIPs, with many more councils committed to doing the same. Scotland andWales have produced four LCLIPs each, with more expected.

Omagh District Council (ODC) is the first local authority in Northern Ireland (NI) to complete an LCLIP.

1.4 Climate change

Our climate is changing. The following points highlight some of those documented changes:

  • Eight of the warmest 15 years globally have occurred since 2000[1].
  • The observed global temperature increase since 1990 has been 0.33oC, a figure which lies at the upper end of the 2007 International Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) predicted range (Fusell 2009)
  • Over the next two decades, a warming of 0.2oC is expected per decade (IPCC, 2007).
  • By the end of the 21st century, best estimates from a range of six differing scenarios have projected global temperatures to rise by between 1.8-4.0oC (IPCC, 2007).

Apart from gradual climate change, it is expected that there will be an increased frequency and intensity of some extreme weather events. Floods, droughts, heat waves and storm surges could become more frequent and intense (Van Vuurenet al, 2010).

Such changes will create a number of impacts, including direct health impacts:

  • Temperature-related mortality is expected to rise with heat waves (IPCC, 2007).
  • Increased flooding will damage property, displace people and affect crop yields, but it will also bring about the spread of disease and injury (Van Vuuren et al, 2010).
  • The IPCC report highlights that such weather related events will lead to an increased burden on services due to a rise in human health issues such as diarrhoeal diseases, cardio-respiratory diseases and an altered spatial distribution of some infectious diseases.

The potential impacts of global warming are complex. NI is likely to face warmer and drier summers, contrasted with milder and wetter winters, leading to increased likelihood of periods of drought and flooding. These changes have the potential to affect all sectors of society, from health and social care to economic market activity. Potential impacts include:

  • The destruction of property
  • The spread of diseases
  • The displacement of large groups of people (from other regions of the world)
  • An increase in heat related fatalities
  • Logistical problems in providing aid and support.

1.5 Aim and objectives

This LCILP provides a profile of the ODC area’s vulnerability to climate change. In the past, the district experienced a number of extreme weather events such as flooding, which led to property damage, causeddistress to residents, and placed extra demands on the Council’s services. This report examines past weather related events and how their impacts were managed.

The aims of this LCLIPare:

  1. To gather information on past impacts of extreme weather events within the ODC area
  2. To asses the vulnerability of ODC to these events from an operational and financial point of view
  3. To assess climate change impacts on vulnerable/deprived groups within ODC.
  4. To highlight possible future impacts.
  5. To provide information that will help inform future climate change adaptation measures.

The objectives to achieve these are:

  1. To catalogue all significant weather events affecting ODC area over a ten year period.
  2. To establish how all ODC departments were affected by the extreme weather events and to determine how they might better respond in the future.
  3. To assess the impacts of these events and their associated costs, where possible.
  4. To highlight these impacts in relation to future climate change scenarios.
  5. To produce recommendations for action by ODC.
  6. To produce a foundation for a climate change adaptation strategy.

2.Methodology

This LCLIP is based on the methodology5 designed by UKCIP which involves a two phased research approach.The first phaseinvolved a media trawl of local newspapers in order to identify weather events which affected the area during a ten year timeframe (from January 2001 toDecember 2010). The second phase involved conducting interviews with the heads of Departments in ODC.

2.1 Phase 1: Media trawl

A media trawl of the two local newspapers,the Ulster Herald and the Tyrone Constitution, was undertaken to identify the weather events which received headline attention. Copies of each issue of each newspaper from the study period, January 2001 to December 2010, were accessed from archives and were manually searched for relevant information.Information gathered included: the source newspaper,the headline, date of event, weather type, for example wind, excessive rainfall etc and its impact and significance.

2.2 Interviews

To determine whether or not, and if so to what extent, the operations within various Council departments had been affected by any weather events, staff within the following eight departments were interviewed:

  • Arts and Tourism.
  • Building Control.
  • Corporate Services.
  • Development.
  • Environmental Health (incorporating Emergency Planning).
  • Finance.
  • Human Resources.
  • Technical Services.

Interviews took place with the Chief Officer or a nominated senior member of staff from each department and were conducted by the Policy Researcher from the CIEH, with the support of a SeniorEHO from Omagh District Council and a Principal EHO from the Western Group Environmental Health Service.

Specific attention was paid to two weather events identified from the media search results as having had the highest impacts on the Omagh area: a flash flooding incident in 2007 and a prolonged period of frost, ice and snow in January 2010.

3.Northern Ireland’s climate

The NI climate is characterised by the moderating effects of the Atlantic Ocean, the indented shape of the coastline and the presence of high ground which results in localised differences in temperature, cloud and precipitation.

3.1 Temperature

The main factors influencing temperature are distance from the sea and altitude. During winter, temperatures are influenced to a large extent by the surface of the surrounding sea which reaches its lowest temperature level in late February or early March. Therefore around coastal areas, February is normally the coldest month.

The lowest temperatures generally occur away from the moderating influence of the sea. The lowest officially accepted temperature recorded in NI was -18.7oC, at Castlederg, CountyTyrone on 23 December 2010.

July is normally the warmest month, with average daily maximum temperatures varying from around 17oC in upland areas and along the north coast, to almost 20oC in low lying areas to the south of Lough Neagh and in Fermanagh. The highest temperature ever recorded was 30.8oC measured at both Knockarevan in CountyFermanagh on 30 June 1976 and at Shaw’s Bridge in Belfast on 12 July 1983.

3.2 Sunshine

NI is cloudier than the rest of the UK because of the hilly nature of the terrain and its proximity to the Atlantic Ocean. However, the coastal strip of CountyDown manages an annual average total of over 1400 hours of sunshine.

The least sunny parts are the upland areas of the north and west, with annual average totals of less than 1100 hours. Mean monthly sunshine figures reach a maximum in May and are at their lowest in December.

3.3 Rainfall

Rainfall varies widely, with the wettest places being in the Sperrin, Antrim and MourneMountains. Exposure to rain-bearing winds off the Atlantic results in higher average rainfalls in the more western counties of Fermanagh, Londonderry/Derry and Tyrone. In the wettest areas, rainfall totals reach 1950 mm. Average annual totals are just below 800 mm. The highest rainfall areas have average annual totals of about 1600 mm. In all areas, the wettest months are between October and January.

The combination of close proximity to active weather systems arriving from the Atlantic and the extensive areas of upland can lead to notable daily and monthly rainfalls. Periods of prolonged rainfall can lead to widespread flooding, for example, the autumn of 2000 was the wettest season for over 100 years with several flooding episodes, including a fall of 167 mm of rain at theSilentValley, CountyDown over 48 hours in early November.

3.4 Snowfall

Snowfalls rarely occur if the temperature is higher than 4oC. The number of days during which snowfalls, increases with increasing latitude and altitude. Snowfall is comparatively rare near sea level in NI.

The average number of days each year when sleet or snow fallsvaries from around 10 days near the east coast, to over 35 days in the Sperrin, Antrim and Mourne mountains.

The average annual number of days with snowlying in Northern Ireland varies from less than 10 in coastal areas, to over 30 in the mountains.A day of lying snow is defined as the ground being more than 50% covered at 0900. The number of days of snowfall and snow cover varies enormously from year to year. During the last 50 years it has ranged from zero to in excess of 30 days during the winters of 1962/63 and 1981/82.In heavy snowfalls there can be quite extensive drifting of snow in strong winds, especially over higher ground.

3.5 Wind

NI is one of the windier parts of the UK, particularly over the highest ground and along the coasts of counties Antrim and Down.

The strongest winds are in the winter months, especially from November to January.

Gales[2] occur most frequently in low altitude areas, such as along the coasts of counties Antrim and Down, with an average of around 15 days of gales each year. The number of gales decreases inland to 5 days or fewer around Lough Neagh.

Wind speed is sensitive to local topographic effects.

A prevailing south-westerly wind direction through the year is typical in low lying inland locations. However, in spring, north, north-east and easterly winds occur frequently.

4. Omagh climate profile[3]

4.1 Omagh

The district of Omagh covers an area of almost 113,000 hectares (440 squaremiles), making it the second largest district council area in NI. It has a population of some 52,500. The county town of Omagh is at the centre with the rest of the district primarily rural in character, with people living in scattered small towns and villages or in dispersed rural communities.[3]

Omagh town is situated at the confluence of the Camowen, Strule and Drumragh rivers, within a natural bowl-shaped valley that is enclosed to the north by the mountain of Mullaghcarn.

4.2 Temperature

Due to its inland western locality, the area can experience some of the highest temperatures in NI.

Monthly maximum temperatures during the time under study ranged from 4.1oC (January 2010) to 21.8oC (July 2006) with an average of 13.06oC.

Minimum temperatures ranged from 11.9oC (July 2006) to -2.2oC (January 2010), with an average of 5.54oC.

4.3 Rainfall

Compared to other low-lying areas in NI, Omagh tends to experience wetter conditions on an annual basis, due to its proximity to the SperrinMountains.

Monthly rainfall totals ranged from 29.9 mm (February 2009) to226.3 mm (November 2009) with an average of 96.82 mm. On the 12 July 2007 the Edenfel weather station recorded a total of 94.7 mm of rain, which was the wettest day in the station’s history, since it was established in 1872.

4.4 Wind

Monthly average wind speeds ranged from 5.01 knots (December 2009) to 10.69 knots (January 2005), with an average of 6.8 knots

4.5 Sunshine

Monthly average hours of sunshine ranged from 26.2 hours (November 2007) to 229 hours (May 2008), with an average of 101.25 hours.

4.6 Snowfall

As Omagh lies in the foot-hills of the SperrinMountains, the area tends to see rather more days of falling and lying snow in winter, and a higher incidence of frost than other low-lying areas.

The annual number of days with snowfall ranged from 1 day in 2007 to 24 days in 2009, and from January-August 2010. The annual average number of days of snowfall is 8.

4.7 Sleet/snowfall

The average number of days each year of sleet/snowfall varies from around 10 near the east coast to over 35 in the mountains of Sperrin, Antrim and Mourne[4].

5. UKClimate Projections ‘09

The following figure depicts climate projections for NI based on the findings of the UK Climate Projection ’09.[5] All projected values are relative to 2009 climate conditions and the projections illustrate what the climate may be like, long into the future.

Estimating our future climate is an imprecise science as the outcomes depend greatly on changes in greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change modelling for a medium scenario for the UK into the 2050s has indicated rising temperatures, even if emissions are cut significantly.

Fig 1. Based on the medium scenario, the following points summarise the projections for NI to 2050

Average summer temperature / 2.2oC Increase
Average winter temperature / 1.7oC Increase
Average summer rainfall / 13% Decrease
Average winter rainfall / 9% Increase

More prolonged winter rainfall may well result in an increased incidence of flooding – (perhaps similar to that experienced in Fermanagh in Autumn 2009). While rainfall in summer is expected to decrease overall, a greater proportion may fall as intense short duration episodesincreasing the risk of flash flooding in summer, (as happened in Omagh in 2007). This type of rainfall however tends to be more localised in nature and the reduction in summer rainfall overall would increase the risk of more prolonged periods of exceptionally dry weather or even periods of drought.

Ref. UKCP09, DEFRA. 50% probability level

6.Media Trawl

The two local newspapers, the Ulster Herald and the Tyrone Constitution, were searched for stories concerning extreme weather events in the Omagh area between January 2001 and December 2010 (i.e. a total study period of 10 years). The trawl produced 58 headlines, illustrated in Fig.2 below.