Supplement 1.
Figure S1. Relationship between species’ responses to climate and mean FFD
Linear regressions. Concord: slope=0.013, p>0.05; Gothic: slope=0.007, p>0.05; Tucson: slope=-0.076, p=0.07
Supplement 2.
modA / modB / modC
temp / temp + precip/snow / temp + precip + temp*precip
Concord / 4290 / 4293 / 4369
Gothic / 2886 / 2495 / 2534
Tucson / 7448 / 7491 / 7430
17
Supplement 3.
Tables S2-5. Species lists and parameter values for model including temperature and precipitation. Reported are the mean and 95% credible intervals of the regression parameters for each species.
Concord species / Temperature / Precipitation / Temp x Precip Interactionmean / C.I. 2.5% / C.I. 97.5% / mean / C.I. 2.5% / C.I. 97.5% / mean / C.I. 2.5% / C.I. 97.5%
Amelanchier canadensis / -3.6 / -5.0 / -2.2 / 0.1 / -0.1 / 0.3 / 0.1 / -0.2 / 0.4
Anemone quinquefolia / -2.4 / -4.3 / -0.6 / 0.3 / 0.0 / 0.5 / -0.2 / -0.6 / 0.1
Anemonella thallictroides / -3.8 / -5.5 / -2.1 / 0.1 / -0.1 / 0.3 / 0.0 / -0.3 / 0.4
Aquilegia canadensis / -0.7 / -3.4 / 2.3 / 0.3 / -0.1 / 0.6 / -0.3 / -0.7 / 0.1
Aralia nudicaulis / -1.7 / -3.3 / 0.1 / 0.2 / 0.0 / 0.4 / -0.2 / -0.6 / 0.2
Arenaria lateriflora / -4.2 / -7.9 / -0.6 / 0.2 / -0.3 / 0.6 / 0.2 / -0.6 / 0.9
Arisaema atrorubens / -3.2 / -4.9 / -1.5 / 0.2 / 0.0 / 0.4 / -0.2 / -0.5 / 0.1
Berberis vulgaris / -4.4 / -7.4 / -1.2 / -0.1 / -0.5 / 0.3 / 0.3 / -0.2 / 0.7
Caltha palustris / -1.4 / -4.7 / 1.9 / 0.5 / 0.1 / 0.9 / -0.3 / -0.6 / 0.0
Chamaedaphne calyculata / -3.0 / -4.8 / -1.3 / 0.1 / -0.1 / 0.3 / -0.2 / -0.5 / 0.2
Chelidonium majus / -4.9 / -6.9 / -2.8 / 0.2 / 0.0 / 0.5 / -0.1 / -0.4 / 0.2
Chrysanthemum leucanthemum / -1.2 / -4.1 / 1.8 / 0.5 / 0.2 / 0.8 / 0.2 / -0.3 / 0.6
Coptis groenlandica / -5.2 / -8.0 / -2.5 / -0.1 / -0.5 / 0.2 / 0.1 / -0.3 / 0.5
Cornus canadensis / -2.5 / -5.0 / -0.1 / 0.1 / -0.2 / 0.5 / -0.3 / -0.7 / 0.2
Cornus florida / -2.7 / -5.0 / -0.4 / 0.2 / -0.1 / 0.4 / 0.1 / -0.3 / 0.6
Cypredium acaule / -2.6 / -4.5 / -0.5 / 0.3 / 0.1 / 0.5 / -0.1 / -0.5 / 0.2
Fragaria virginiana / -2.0 / -5.4 / 0.9 / -0.1 / -0.6 / 0.3 / -0.1 / -0.4 / 0.4
Gaylussacia baccata / -5.0 / -8.1 / -2.0 / 0.3 / -0.1 / 0.6 / -0.1 / -0.5 / 0.3
Geranium maculatum / -1.0 / -2.9 / 0.8 / 0.2 / 0.0 / 0.4 / -0.3 / -0.7 / 0.1
Houstonia caerulea / -2.4 / -4.6 / -0.4 / 0.2 / 0.0 / 0.5 / -0.2 / -0.5 / 0.2
Hypoxis hirsuta / -1.4 / -3.7 / 1.0 / 0.1 / -0.1 / 0.3 / 0.0 / -0.4 / 0.4
Krigia viginica / -3.6 / -7.2 / 0.1 / 0.2 / -0.2 / 0.7 / -0.1 / -0.6 / 0.4
Lepidium virginicum / -6.8 / -12.8 / -0.7 / 0.3 / -0.5 / 1.1 / 0.0 / -0.5 / 0.5
Malus malus / -2.9 / -5.3 / -0.6 / 0.1 / -0.2 / 0.4 / -0.3 / -0.6 / 0.2
Oxalis europaea / -6.6 / -10.0 / -3.3 / 0.3 / -0.1 / 0.7 / 0.1 / -0.3 / 0.4
Polygala pauciflora / -1.6 / -3.5 / 0.4 / 0.2 / -0.1 / 0.4 / -0.4 / -0.7 / -0.1
Potentilla argentea / -2.8 / -7.5 / 2.0 / 0.2 / -0.3 / 0.8 / 0.2 / -0.3 / 0.6
Potentilla canadensis / -4.3 / -8.9 / 0.1 / 0.4 / -0.2 / 0.9 / -0.1 / -0.4 / 0.3
Prunus americana / -2.7 / -4.1 / -1.2 / 0.4 / 0.2 / 0.5 / 0.0 / -0.3 / 0.3
Prunus pensylvanica / -3.6 / -5.6 / -1.6 / 0.3 / 0.1 / 0.5 / -0.3 / -0.6 / 0.0
Prunus serotina / -5.2 / -11.2 / 0.9 / 0.4 / -0.2 / 1.1 / 0.0 / -0.6 / 0.6
Prunus virginiana / -3.8 / -7.5 / -0.2 / 0.2 / -0.3 / 0.6 / -0.4 / -0.8 / 0.1
Ranunculus acris / -1.7 / -4.1 / 0.6 / 0.1 / -0.2 / 0.4 / 0.1 / -0.4 / 0.7
Ranunculus bulbosus / -1.6 / -4.5 / 1.2 / 0.2 / -0.2 / 0.6 / -0.4 / -0.7 / 0.2
Rhododendron canadense / -3.6 / -5.1 / -2.0 / 0.1 / -0.1 / 0.3 / -0.1 / -0.4 / 0.2
Rumex acetosella / -4.7 / -7.1 / -2.4 / 0.3 / 0.1 / 0.6 / 0.1 / -0.2 / 0.4
Saxifraga virginiensis / -0.9 / -3.1 / 1.4 / 0.1 / -0.2 / 0.4 / -0.3 / -0.6 / 0.0
Scleranthus annuus / -5.3 / -15.6 / 5.4 / 0.0 / -1.4 / 1.5 / 0.3 / -0.4 / 0.9
Senecio aureus / -1.1 / -3.7 / 1.4 / 0.2 / -0.1 / 0.6 / -0.2 / -0.5 / 0.2
Silene caroliniana / -2.1 / -3.8 / -0.5 / 0.3 / 0.0 / 0.5 / -0.3 / -0.6 / 0.0
Sisymbrium officinale / -5.8 / -13.3 / 1.8 / 0.7 / -0.2 / 1.6 / 0.2 / -0.4 / 0.7
Smilacina racemosa / -1.3 / -4.2 / 1.8 / 0.0 / -0.4 / 0.3 / 0.0 / -0.5 / 0.6
Stellaria media / -5.8 / -10.5 / -1.2 / 0.1 / -0.5 / 0.7 / 0.1 / -0.3 / 0.5
Taraxacum officinale / -4.5 / -6.9 / -1.9 / 0.2 / -0.1 / 0.5 / -0.1 / -0.4 / 0.3
Trientalis borealis / -3.5 / -5.9 / -1.3 / 0.1 / -0.2 / 0.4 / -0.1 / -0.5 / 0.3
Trifolium pratense / -3.0 / -5.2 / -1.0 / 0.0 / -0.2 / 0.3 / 0.1 / -0.3 / 0.5
Trifolium repens / -1.1 / -5.6 / 3.3 / -0.2 / -0.7 / 0.3 / 0.0 / -0.5 / 0.4
Trillium cernuum / -1.3 / -3.5 / 0.9 / 0.2 / -0.1 / 0.4 / -0.5 / -0.9 / -0.1
Uvularia sessifolia / -3.9 / -6.0 / -1.8 / 0.0 / -0.2 / 0.3 / 0.3 / -0.1 / 0.7
Vaccinium angustifolium / -5.1 / -6.6 / -3.6 / 0.2 / 0.0 / 0.4 / 0.0 / -0.3 / 0.2
Vaccinium corymbosum / -6.2 / -7.9 / -4.4 / 0.2 / 0.0 / 0.4 / 0.1 / -0.2 / 0.3
Vaccinium vacillans / -3.2 / -5.2 / -1.0 / 0.3 / 0.1 / 0.6 / 0.0 / -0.4 / 0.3
Veronica serpyllifolia / -4.8 / -7.2 / -2.3 / 0.1 / -0.2 / 0.4 / 0.0 / -0.3 / 0.4
Viola brittoniana / -6.6 / -12.2 / -1.1 / 0.9 / 0.2 / 1.6 / 0.0 / -0.5 / 0.6
Viola cucullata / -3.8 / -5.7 / -1.8 / 0.3 / 0.0 / 0.5 / -0.2 / -0.5 / 0.1
Viola fimbriatula / -1.6 / -4.5 / 1.3 / -0.1 / -0.4 / 0.3 / 0.1 / -0.2 / 0.5
Viola lanceolata / -4.2 / -7.4 / -1.0 / 0.1 / -0.2 / 0.5 / 0.3 / -0.3 / 0.9
Viola pubescens / -5.9 / -8.4 / -3.4 / 0.4 / 0.1 / 0.7 / 0.1 / -0.3 / 0.4
Gothic species / Temperature / Precipitation / Temp x Precip Interaction
mean / C.I. 2.5% / C.I. 97.5% / mean / C.I. 2.5% / C.I. 97.5% / mean / C.I. 2.5% / C.I. 97.5%
Amelanchier pumila / -2.9 / -5.2 / -0.6 / 0.4 / 0.3 / 0.6 / -0.1 / -0.4 / 0.1
Androsace septentrionalis / -5.1 / -9.4 / -0.9 / 0.6 / 0.3 / 0.8 / 0.1 / -0.2 / 0.4
Arabis drummondii / -2.2 / -5.1 / 0.7 / 0.5 / 0.3 / 0.7 / -0.2 / -0.5 / 0.1
Cardamine cordifolia / 0.0 / -3.6 / 3.8 / 0.6 / 0.3 / 0.8 / -0.3 / -0.6 / 0.1
Claytonia lanceolata / -0.9 / -5.9 / 4.2 / 0.9 / 0.5 / 1.2 / 0.0 / -0.3 / 0.4
Delphinium nuttallianum / -2.6 / -5.3 / 0.2 / 0.4 / 0.2 / 0.6 / -0.2 / -0.5 / 0.1
Dodecatheon pulchellum / -3.1 / -5.3 / -0.6 / 0.4 / 0.3 / 0.6 / -0.1 / -0.3 / 0.2
Draba aurea / -2.3 / -5.0 / 0.6 / 0.5 / 0.3 / 0.7 / -0.1 / -0.4 / 0.1
Draba nemorosa / -6.6 / -9.9 / -2.9 / 0.2 / 0.0 / 0.5 / 0.5 / -0.1 / 1.0
Eriogonum umbellatum / -3.8 / -5.7 / -1.6 / 0.4 / 0.3 / 0.6 / 0.0 / -0.2 / 0.2
Erysimum asperum / -3.5 / -7.6 / 0.8 / 0.5 / 0.2 / 0.7 / -0.2 / -0.6 / 0.2
Erythronium grandiflorum / -2.6 / -5.5 / 0.3 / 0.4 / 0.2 / 0.6 / 0.0 / -0.3 / 0.3
Fragaria virginiana / -2.8 / -5.0 / -0.8 / 0.5 / 0.3 / 0.6 / -0.1 / -0.3 / 0.1
Galium bifolium / 2.2 / -9.2 / 13.9 / 0.8 / 0.0 / 1.5 / -0.6 / -1.2 / 0.0
Hydrophyllum capitatum / -2.2 / -4.6 / 0.2 / 0.5 / 0.3 / 0.7 / -0.1 / -0.4 / 0.1
Hydrophyllum fendleri / -3.0 / -6.8 / 0.9 / 0.3 / 0.1 / 0.6 / -0.1 / -0.5 / 0.2
Lathyrus leucanthus / -2.9 / -5.7 / -0.1 / 0.5 / 0.3 / 0.7 / -0.3 / -0.6 / -0.1
Lomatium dissectum / -3.7 / -8.2 / 1.0 / 0.5 / 0.3 / 0.8 / -0.1 / -0.5 / 0.3
Lupinus / -2.7 / -5.6 / 0.3 / 0.3 / 0.1 / 0.5 / 0.1 / -0.2 / 0.5
Lupinus amplus / -3.2 / -10.0 / 3.1 / 0.4 / 0.0 / 0.7 / -0.6 / -1.2 / 0.0
Lupinus prunophyllus / -3.4 / -7.1 / 0.1 / 0.2 / -0.1 / 0.5 / 0.0 / -1.0 / 1.0
Mahonia repens / -2.8 / -6.3 / 0.6 / 0.6 / 0.4 / 0.9 / 0.0 / -0.3 / 0.2
Maianthemum stellatum / -4.6 / -6.5 / -2.4 / 0.2 / 0.0 / 0.4 / -0.1 / -0.3 / 0.1
Mertensia ciliata / -4.0 / -6.9 / -1.2 / 0.2 / 0.0 / 0.4 / -0.1 / -0.4 / 0.2
Mertensia fusiformis / -2.9 / -6.7 / 0.9 / 0.5 / 0.2 / 0.8 / 0.0 / -0.3 / 0.4
Noccaea montanum / -3.3 / -6.1 / -0.3 / 0.5 / 0.3 / 0.7 / 0.0 / -0.2 / 0.3
Oxypolis fendleri / 0.2 / -8.8 / 9.0 / 0.3 / -0.6 / 1.2 / -0.3 / -3.4 / 2.9
Paxistima myrsinites / -5.3 / -9.4 / -1.3 / 0.3 / 0.0 / 0.6 / 0.1 / -0.3 / 0.5
Pedicularis bracteosa / -1.7 / -4.9 / 1.7 / 0.4 / 0.2 / 0.6 / -0.2 / -0.6 / 0.2
Potentilla hippiana / -3.2 / -6.8 / 0.3 / 0.2 / -0.1 / 0.4 / -0.4 / -0.9 / 0.1
Potentilla pulcherrima / -1.5 / -3.9 / 0.7 / 0.5 / 0.3 / 0.7 / -0.1 / -0.4 / 0.1
Pseudocymopterus montanus / -3.1 / -6.1 / -0.1 / 0.5 / 0.3 / 0.7 / -0.2 / -0.5 / 0.1
Ranunculus inamoenus / -3.5 / -6.9 / -0.3 / 0.4 / 0.2 / 0.6 / -0.2 / -0.5 / 0.1
Salix brachycarpa / -7.4 / -11.6 / -3.4 / 0.3 / 0.0 / 0.5 / -0.1 / -0.4 / 0.2
Salix geyeriana / -6.4 / -10.6 / -2.5 / 0.3 / 0.1 / 0.6 / -0.1 / -0.5 / 0.3
Salix monticola / -3.9 / -7.8 / 0.5 / 0.4 / 0.1 / 0.7 / -0.1 / -0.4 / 0.3
Sedum rosea / -4.0 / -7.0 / -1.3 / 0.2 / 0.0 / 0.5 / 0.0 / -0.3 / 0.4
Senecio integerrimus / -1.9 / -5.1 / 1.0 / 0.4 / 0.2 / 0.6 / 0.0 / -0.4 / 0.3
Taraxacum officinale / -3.6 / -7.2 / 0.1 / 0.5 / 0.3 / 0.8 / -0.1 / -0.4 / 0.2
Valeriana capitata / -1.7 / -4.2 / 1.1 / 0.6 / 0.4 / 0.8 / -0.2 / -0.4 / 0.0
Valeriana edulis / -3.3 / -8.2 / 1.3 / 0.3 / 0.0 / 0.6 / -0.2 / -0.6 / 0.2
Viola praemorsa / -2.8 / -6.0 / 0.4 / 0.5 / 0.3 / 0.7 / -0.1 / -0.4 / 0.2
Tucson species / Temperature / Precipitation / Temp x Precip Interaction
mean / C.I. 2.5% / C.I. 97.5% / mean / C.I. 2.5% / C.I. 97.5% / mean / C.I. 2.5% / C.I. 97.5%
Ambrosia ambrosioides / 0.1 / -7.8 / 8.2 / -1.7 / -3.9 / 0.5 / -2.2 / -11.5 / 7.1
Ambrosia deltoidea / 1.8 / -5.3 / 8.9 / 0.0 / -2.2 / 2.3 / 2.7 / -7.6 / 12.4
Amsinckia intermedia / 0.3 / -6.7 / 7.7 / -0.3 / -2.7 / 1.9 / 6.1 / -4.5 / 16.3
Avena fatua / 4.3 / -14.6 / 23.6 / -4.4 / -9.8 / 0.8 / -12.8 / -37.0 / 11.4
Boechera perennans / 10.8 / 3.1 / 18.7 / -1.1 / -3.1 / 1.0 / -3.1 / -11.7 / 4.9
Bromus rubens / -0.9 / -9.0 / 7.2 / -2.9 / -5.3 / -0.3 / -7.7 / -18.5 / 3.4
Camissonia californica / 6.0 / -0.8 / 12.9 / 2.1 / -0.1 / 4.2 / 11.7 / 2.2 / 20.7
Cirsium neomexicanum / -2.6 / -12.1 / 6.1 / -3.0 / -6.0 / 0.1 / -8.2 / -21.9 / 6.1
Coursetia glandulosa / -6.9 / -14.7 / 0.5 / -0.3 / -2.5 / 1.9 / 3.7 / -4.9 / 12.8
Cryptantha barbigera / 0.4 / -6.9 / 7.3 / 1.4 / -0.7 / 3.4 / 14.0 / 5.5 / 22.6
Cylindropuntia bigelovii / -2.8 / -7.7 / 2.0 / -0.8 / -2.3 / 0.6 / -1.1 / -7.8 / 5.2
Cylindropuntia versicolor / -1.4 / -5.7 / 2.6 / -1.3 / -2.5 / -0.2 / -3.6 / -8.4 / 1.1
Descurainia pinnata / -3.9 / -13.4 / 5.3 / 1.3 / -1.6 / 4.1 / 13.8 / 1.1 / 26.2
Dichelostemma pulchellum / -0.9 / -7.1 / 5.2 / -0.8 / -3.0 / 1.7 / 1.6 / -9.1 / 11.9
Digitaria californica / -7.1 / -30.6 / 17.7 / -2.3 / -8.0 / 3.7 / -24.2 / -50.5 / 1.7
Eriastrum diffusum / 2.2 / -5.4 / 9.4 / 1.7 / -1.1 / 4.3 / 5.3 / -6.4 / 16.6
Galium aparine / 4.9 / -16.5 / 25.1 / -4.7 / -10.0 / 0.8 / -17.1 / -43.6 / 9.1
Hordeum murinum subsp. glaucum / 3.4 / 0.0 / 6.7 / -0.9 / -1.9 / 0.0 / -3.7 / -7.7 / 0.4
Lupinus sparsiflorus / 1.9 / -4.0 / 7.9 / 0.1 / -2.1 / 2.1 / 8.1 / -1.3 / 16.4
Medicago polymorpha var. vulgaris / -3.0 / -14.0 / 8.2 / -3.7 / -6.6 / -0.8 / -6.5 / -19.0 / 5.4
Mentzelia jonesii / -3.9 / -9.1 / 1.5 / -1.3 / -3.3 / 0.7 / 8.8 / 1.0 / 16.8
Mimulus guttatus / 5.1 / -11.8 / 21.8 / -4.0 / -8.2 / 0.4 / -13.4 / -31.6 / 4.9
Oenothera primiveris subsp. primiveris / -4.3 / -13.9 / 4.4 / 2.0 / -0.6 / 4.5 / 19.2 / 8.0 / 28.9
Opuntia engelmannii var. engelmannii / -1.9 / -5.5 / 1.8 / -0.5 / -1.5 / 0.5 / -0.1 / -4.3 / 4.2
Parietaria hespera var. hespera / -0.5 / -12.1 / 10.4 / 1.6 / -2.6 / 5.4 / 17.3 / 1.7 / 30.7
Parkinsonia florida / -1.9 / -8.6 / 5.0 / -0.6 / -2.6 / 1.5 / -0.1 / -7.8 / 7.7
Parkinsonia microphylla / 0.6 / -4.8 / 5.9 / -0.9 / -2.6 / 0.7 / -1.2 / -8.3 / 6.3
Penstemon parryi / 1.9 / -5.0 / 9.2 / -1.9 / -3.8 / 0.0 / -5.7 / -14.2 / 2.8
Phacelia distans / 6.0 / 0.4 / 11.7 / 1.5 / -0.3 / 3.1 / 13.1 / 5.3 / 20.6
Phacelia ramosissima / -25.9 / -45.7 / -5.3 / -4.2 / -9.5 / 1.4 / -2.4 / -28.4 / 21.3
Plantago patagonica var. gnaphalioides / 0.7 / -5.2 / 6.6 / -1.7 / -3.5 / 0.2 / -1.4 / -9.6 / 6.8
Prosopsis velutina / -2.5 / -6.6 / 2.0 / -0.7 / -1.9 / 0.5 / -1.3 / -6.3 / 3.9
Rafinesquia neomexicana / -1.2 / -7.3 / 5.0 / -1.2 / -3.3 / 1.0 / 5.6 / -2.4 / 13.7
Schismus barbatus / -2.9 / -11.0 / 4.7 / 0.3 / -2.8 / 3.2 / 12.3 / -0.7 / 24.4
Sisymbrium irio / 9.2 / -6.9 / 26.0 / -3.9 / -8.1 / 0.2 / -10.9 / -29.3 / 7.6
Stemodia durantifolia / -2.3 / -21.2 / 17.2 / -2.6 / -7.2 / 2.3 / -9.9 / -29.7 / 8.6
Streptanthus carinatus / 0.9 / -6.6 / 8.1 / 3.0 / 0.7 / 5.2 / 21.0 / 11.7 / 30.3
Thysanocarpus curvipes / -2.2 / -11.5 / 6.7 / 1.0 / -1.6 / 3.7 / 17.6 / 6.1 / 27.8
17
Supplement 4: References for Box 1
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Alizoti P.G., Kilimis K. & Gallios P. (2010). Temporal and spatial variation of flowering among Pinus nigra Arn. clones under changing climatic conditions. Forest Ecology and Management, 259, 786-797.
Arroyo M.T.K., Armesto J.J. & Villagran C. (1981). Plant phenological patterns in the high Andean cordillera of Central Chile. Journal of Ecology, 69, 205-223.
Baker A.M., Burd M. & Climie K.M. (2005). Flowering phenology and sexual allocation in single-mutation lineages of Arabidopsis thaliana. Evolution, 59, 970-978.
Bawa K.S., H. Kang, and M. H. Grayum. (2003). Relationships among time, frequency, and duration of flowering in tropical rain forest trees. American Journal of Botany, 90, 877–887.
Bertiller M.B., Irisarri M.P. & Ares J.O. (1990). Phenology of Festuca pallescens in relation to topography in North America. Journal of Vegetation Science, 1, 579-584.
Bolmgren K. & Cowan P.D. (2008). Time-size tradeoffs: a phylogenetic comparative study of flowering time, plant height and seed mass in a north-temperate flora. Oikos, 117.