Applying FTA for Nationbuilding in Post-War Sri Lanka

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/ The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):
12 & 13 May 2011
FTA and Grand Societal Challenges:
Shaping and Driving Structural and Systemic Transformations

Applying FTA for NationBuilding in Post-War Sri Lanka

Authors: / Chaminda Hettiarachchi>email ,
Type: / <national FTA exercise in a developing country context
Geographic Coverage: / Sri Lanka, South Asia
Scope: / National Development in General , Education, Health and Energy and Infrastructure Sectors
Applied Methods: / Simulation Models, Multi-Stake Holder Analysis, Game Theory, Scenario Analysis, Forecasting
Evaluation:Impacts: / Pilot Testing done successfully
Nation Building, Evidence Based Policy Making
Organiser: / Regional Centre for Strategic Studies ( RCSS), Associate Director. email
Duration: / <N/A / Budget: / <N/A / Time Horizon: / <2011 / Date of Brief: / 1st April, 11
Keywords: / Sri Lanka, Post-Conflict, NationBuilding, Economic Development, Power Decentralization

Purpose

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(The focus of this study is to apply relevant FTA to analyse the future orientation of the Sri Lanka for various possible outcomes and use the results for possible policy options.)

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<Background & Context

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What were the most important reasons for having launched the FTA exercise?

-Sri Lanka recently ended its three decades long ethnic war. It is considered to be the “first military victory by a nation state in 21st century against a home grown terrorism”.

-Sri Lankanow is in a very optimistic mood about its future. The country is trying to plan its economic development by managing the post war situation.

-Sri Lanka as “a centre of excellence in Asia” by transforming to a dynamic global hub in five sectors: A maritime hub, an aviation hub, a commercial hub, an energy hub and a knowledge hub.

-However, not everybody is sharing the same views for a bright future. The ethnic minorities perceive that the military victory has delayed any political solution to their grievances. The directly affected victims feel that the government is not protecting even their basic rights. The opposition parties complain that the government is dragging the country to an authoritarian regime by violating the norms of multi-party democracy misusing the high popularity the government enjoys due to war victory. Meantime the international community is trying to probe the possible war crimes against the government of Sri Lanka.

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FTA Process >

What did the exercise deal with (i.e. focus)?

What did you want to achieve (i.e. objectives)?

How were the project team and the steering committee identified and defined?

Who were theintended users of the exercise?

Which approach was employed (e.g. bottom-up, top-down, product or process oriented, etc)?

Who selected the participants? How were these engaged across different phases of the exercise?

What were the main aspects of managing the exercise that should be highlighted with regards to time, participation, and communication within the exercise and with external stakeholders/clients?

What were the major methodologies used and how did they fit together? Did you rely on previous experiences?

A pilot testing was done with the active participation of following members (30 in number).

Postgraduate Students

University Lecturers

Corporate Managers

NGO employees

Government Employees

The team was allowed to carry out detailed discussions and interaction of above topics and they were involved in following excursuses.

Case Studies

Role Plays

Simulation Exercises

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Output & Impacts

In terms of output: Was there a success indicator?

Did the output meet your expectations (or that of other participants/organizers/clients) and/or the objectives set?

What effect or impactdid the exercise have, e.g. on the client’s policy?

Who is the main addressee for the results of your FTA? How were final results disseminated?

Did the findings of your FTA exercise result into any (policy) options or recommendations?

Did they have an impact on the client’s future application of FTA as a methodology?

Did they have an impact on the client’s or other actor’s policies?

Did they have an impact on research options/policies?

Has the monitoring system proven an appropriate alternative to modeling?

Is it accepted in the “community”?

How do you measure the success of your FTA exercise?

Whom are your recommendations addressed to?

Have any of the measures been applied?

The pilot testing was successful. They have done a successful modeling of the future oriented policy issues, the prioritization of the issues and the alternative actions as policy recommendations.

The exercise was also successful as it facilitated the learning of the process dynamic of the actor interaction, they behavioralpatterns and communicational strategies.

The participants well understand the FTA tools and their applications

Suggested proposal and recommendations are policy oriented

The testing was scalable and duplicatable.

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<Outcome & Evaluation

Was the FTA designed to create recommendations to be implemented?

In the long run: what do you consider the intended or unintended results? And how can they be recognized?

If results have been implemented: What do you think were the crucial variables that made the recommendations/results prone for implementation?

What is your perception of the FTA exercise (process, participants, methods, output etc.) from today’s perspective?

What would you say were the main lessons learned as well as what worked best throughout the whole exercise?

What went well and where did you encounter obstacles?

Would you do anything different?

Were you or your partners involved in any kind of implementation process?

What is the benefit that the participants/experts gained from the FTA experience?

Did you get any feedback? Did you ask for it?

Did you take any measures to support the networking effect?

Are you aware of any citations/follow-up, second-hand use of your results, papers etc.?

From the exercise, it is clear that FTA can be applied in grand scale under the controlled and well designed system. It is clear that FTA tools are useful and effective in application. They are very powerful in interaction, communication and also decision making. However, attention should be made in facilitation of the interaction process, selection of appropriate tools, involvement of all relevant players and direct them for shared outcomes.Several trails should be carried out for consolidation of decisions and outcomes before presenting them for policy making.

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(Links for further information, references used, etc.)

A.Bilsel and Ö. Oral “Role of Education, Science and Technology in Developing Countries” Eastern Mediterranean University Gazimagusa, North Cyprus Turkey 1995

Hettiarachchi, Chaminda (2006) “Future- Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) as an Enabler of Federalism in Sri Lanka” Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Impact of FTA Approaches on Policy and Decision-Making – SEVILLE 28-29 SEPTEMBER 2006

Georghiou, L. ( 2007) “Future of Foresighting for Economic Development”, UNIDO Expert Group Meeting on the Future of Technology Foresight held in Vienna on 29-30 May 2007

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