The Future of Dating

A study of trends in relationship formation in the UK 1996-2040

Contents

Introduction

The Research Programme

Methodology

1.Trends in dating

1.1.The role of the internet in UK dating in 2013

1.2.Trends in the role of the internet in UK dating

1.3.Trends in devices used for online dating

1.4.Trends in consumer expenditure on online dating service fees

2.The future of online dating in the UK

2.1.The future of relationship formation in the UK

2.2.Which segments will provide the biggest growth in online daters?

3.Changing attitudes to online dating

3.1.Acceptability of online dating

3.2.Prospective use of online dating

3.3.Consumers’ experience of online dating

4.Regional comparisons

Conclusion

Introduction

In autumn 2013, eHarmony and Third City approached the Future Foundation to pursue an original programme of original qualitative research, historic data analysis, and forecasting, focussed on predicting the future of dating in the UK.

The Research Programme

We used a two-pronged approach to gather data for this project; first, an audit and collation of existing quantitative research resources, including government, academic andproprietary Future Foundation data and forecasts, and second, a nationally representative survey of 2,067 adults.

Methodology

We interviewed a nationally representative sample of 2,067 UK adults aged 18-64. Respondents were recruited and interviews were carried out online by PureProfile, during December 2013. Quotas were set by age, gender and legal marital status, and where appropriate results have been re-weighted so as to be representative of the entire UK population aged 18-64.

Our forecasts were built by mapping results from our December 2013 survey data onto the latest Government Actuary’s Department principle forecasts for the size and age of the UK population, the latest GAD principle forecasts for the legal marital status and partnership profile of UK adults in each age group, and Eurostat/ Future Foundation trend data / forecasts for internet uptake and usage by age group.

Purpose of this document

This report is intended to deliver selected key findings from our research programme in a concise form.

1.Trends in dating

1.1.The role of the internet in UK dating in 2013

We’llstart by looking at the proportion of couples who have used the internet tofind one another or establish their new relationship.

Our research shows thatin 2013, four in ten new UK relationships began online:

  • 27% of couples who got together in 2013 found their partner online through a dating site or meeting website, and a further 13%say thatthe internet was either essential or very important to getting the relationship started

Breaking this down:

  • 17% of UK couples who got together in 2013 met their partner through an internet dating or matchmaking service
  • A further 10% of 2013 couples first met their partner on any other type of social networking or ‘meeting’ website
  • A further 13% did not meet their partner online, but say that communicating online was essential to, or very importantin establishing their relationship
  • This means in total, fourout of ten couples who got together in 2013 said that the internet played a vital role

As well as helping couples to find each other and communicate, the internet is also coming in useful in other ways, for the new couples of 2013:

  • 40% used email or online messaging to communicate at the start of their relationship
  • 39% used social networking sites to communicate and 37% used them to find out more about their new partner
  • 15% - one in six - searched for information on their new partner using an internet search engine

1.2.Trends in the role of the internet in UK dating

Over the past decade, internet access among UK 18-64s has more than doubled, from 43% in 2003 to 88% today. At the same time, the proportion of couples finding love online has trebled:

  • The proportion of couples meeting each other via online dating or meeting sites has grown from less than one in ten (9%) in 2003, to 17% in 2008, andto more than one in four (27%) in 2013
  • The proportion of couples who didn’t meet each other online, but said the internet was essential or very important to establishing their relationship, has grown from 6% in 2003 to 13% today

Online dating helping to broaden horizons

We also found that the rise of online dating has meant that some other common ways of meeting new partners have been in decline in recent years:

  • The proportion of relationships starting with colleagues was rising until around six years ago, but has since been falling sharply as online dating rises (from 18% in 2007 to 12% today). The same exact trend has been found in the proportion who start relationships with their close friends (down from 18% to 12% since 2007).

1.3.Trends in devices used for online dating

For online daters in 2013, the ‘traditional’ PC is now the least popular of the major devices used by online daters, and more than half now use a Smartphone to interact with their online dating service:

  • Only 31% of today’s online daters ever use a traditional PC and monitor for online dating – down from 67% a decade ago
  • The most popular device today for online dating is a laptop computer (69%) up from 24% a decade ago
  • More than half (52%) now use a Smartphone to interact with their online dating service, and one in three online daters now use a ‘tablet’ computer

1.4.Trends in consumer expenditure on online dating service fees

According to our survey data, in 2013, 41% of online daters used a paid-for service, (a proportion that has declined over the past decade but only very gradually). With total numbers of online daters growing strongly (as the number of singles in the UK grows and internet use continues to rise), and average annual expenditure per paying dater growing at slightly above the rate of inflation, total consumer spending on online dating site fees is set to grow enormously.

Breaking down the 41% of online daters who pay fees:

  • 14% of 2013 online daters paid a joining fee to an online dating website
  • 24% of 2013 online daters paid ongoing subscription fees to a dating website
  • 3% paid both types of fees

Mapping our survey data onto Government Actuary’s Dept. forecasts for the size, age and marital status of the UK population, we estimate that UK-wide:

  • Average annual expenditure per fee-paying online dater in 2013 was £127.91
  • Average annual expenditure per online dater was £52.19 in 2013
  • Total consumer spending on online dating was £141.6 million in the year 2013

And mapping today’s expenditure levels onto our forecasts for the prevalence of online dating, the proportion paying and average fee levels among those paying, we conclude that:

  • Expenditure on online dating is expected to rise by 81% in constant 2013 prices, to £256.8 million by 2030

2.The future of online dating in the UK

What does the future hold for online dating?

Using a combination of existing trend data and forecasts from Eurostat, Ofcom, the Government Actuary’s Dept, and Future Foundation’s proprietary forecasts for internet uptake and use, alongside our new retrospective recall survey data on use of online dating 1996-2013, we have built a model of uptake of online dating and use of the internet in establishing relationships for the period 1996 to 2040.

The figures below relate to the entire UK adult population aged 18-64.

2.1.The future of relationship formation in the UK

The chart below shows historic data from 1996-2013 on the proportion of new relationships that happened via an online dating or matchmaking service, via ‘any other website designed to help people meet each other’, and also the proportion of relationships in which the internet was considered essential, or important, despite the couple not actually first meeting online.

It also shows our forecasts for each category, between 2014 and 2040.

Chart 1: The role of the internet in new relationship formation, 1996 to 2040

Base: 1666 United Kingdom adults age 18-64 starting new relationships between 1996 and 2013 / Eurostat 2001-12 / Government Actuary’s Dept. & Future Foundation forecasts Source: eHarmony/The Future Foundation, 2014

As the chart above illustrates, we forecast that:

  • By 2031, the majority (just over 50%) of relationships will start on the internet (involve partners who first meet each other online)
  • Dedicated dating or matchmaking services or apps will continue to grow in popularity. By 2030, 38% of new relationships will start via an online dating or matchmaking service, up from 17% today[1].
  • This said, we also anticipate continued (steady, almost linear) growth in the proportion of new relationships starting via ‘other sites designed to help people meet each other’[2], up from 10% in 2013 to 12% by 2030
  • A further 13% of partners didn’t meet on online but nonetheless say that using the internet was essential or very important to establishing their relationship – a proportion that will also grow steadily (in line with growth in net usage), up to 15% by 2030
  • So, with 40% of UK new relationships already relying on the internet in one way or another, the role of the internet will continue to grow in overall terms, and by 2040 only three in ten new relationships will owe little or nothing to online dating or online communication – with seven in ten either meeting online or using online communication to get to know eachother.

2.2.Which segments will provide the biggest growth in online daters?

  • In terms of age groups, the biggest growth segment over the next decade is expected to be the 55-64 age group, who will see a 30% rise in total numbers of singletons between 2013 and 2030 (from 1.87 million in 2003 to 2.41 million in 2030), while continuing to significantly increase their rates of internet usage.
  • The 35-44 age group will see an even higher rise in numbers of singles (up 33% between 2013 and 2030, but much less growth in internet access (the vast majority being online already). This makes them likely to be the second largest growth group, in age terms.
  • Women will also continue to drive growth, with only one in six single women (16%) feeling that their local area offers ample attractive options (cf. 27% of single men).
  • Regionally, the fastest expected growth in online dater numbers to 2030 is expected to be in London (London’s population is expected to grow at more than double the rate of the rest of the UK between 2013 and 2030).

3.Changing attitudes to online dating

In section three, we focus on attitudes to dating and online dating.

3.1.Acceptability of online dating

  • 94% think online dating has become more ‘normal’ in recent years
  • 86% don't think there is anything wrong with online dating
  • 58% of UK adults agree that ‘If I wanted to meet a partner in future, I would probably use online dating’

3.2.Prospective use of online dating

  • Among current daters who have never tried online dating, 40% say that they would definitely consider trying it, and a further 33% say they might do so
  • Overall, 24% of all UK adults aged 18-64 who have never done online dating say they would definitely consider it if looking for a partner in future – the highest likelihood of consideration was among 35-44 year-olds (32%)
  • Among those who have never dated online, 25% say they wish they’d had a chance to try online dating – (and 27% of married people say they wish they had had a chance to try online dating)

3.3.Consumers’ experience of online dating

Lastly, let’s summarise key facts about how familiar we are with online dating today.

  • 27% of today’s couples met each other through an online dating or meeting service
  • A further 13% of partnered individuals did not meet their current partner via online dating, but have used an online dating service in the past
  • A majority (52%) of UK adults aged 18-64 now have at least one friend or family member who is currently in a relationship with someone they met through an online dating service
  • Online daters are significantly more likely than ‘on-the-town’ daters to say that they generally enjoyed the experience of dating (34% vs. 29%)

4.Regional comparisons

Finally, let’s examine some regional breakdowns. The table below shows how experience of online dating varies by region, and (see right-most column) how rapidly we expect each regions’ online dating population to grow.

Table 1: Regional comparisons:% partners who met online, total % ever tried online dating, total % who would consider in future, £ spend per dater, expected % change in numbers of daters 2013-2030

All UK adults aged 18-64 / % of couples who met partner online / % who have ever tried online dating / % who would consider online dating in future / £ spend on online dating per online dater 2013 / % growth in number of online daters, 2013-2030
UK / 27% / 40% / 57% / £52.19 / 95%
South East / 28% / 42% / 54% / £49.02 / 95%
South West / 27% / 47% / 60% / £52.90 / 94%
North West / 27% / 40% / 60% / £29.40 / 91%
East of England / 27% / 38% / 46% / £38.79 / 94%
West Midlands / 25% / 40% / 61% / £41.96 / 94%
London / 23% / 38% / 62% / £89.30 / 103%
North East / 22% / 38% / 47% / £56.74 / 91%
Scotland / 19% / 27% / 55% / £56.32 / 91%
Yorkshire & the Humber / 19% / 32% / 59% / £64.45 / 94%
Wales / 18% / 38% / 67% / £54.44 / 94%
East Midlands / 18% / 33% / 54% / £43.03 / 94%
Northern Ireland / 13% / 22% / 50% / - / 93%

As we can see:

  • Couples from the South East (28%) are the most likely to have met one another online
  • Northern Ireland’s couples are currently the least likely (13%)to have met online, (but the most likely to have used a paid service)
  • The fastest expected growth in online dating to 2030 is in London, where, we think, the numbers of daters can still more than double by 2030, rising 103%, driven on by London’s higher rate of population growth

Conclusion

It has been striking to see how far - and how fast - online dating is changing the way in which couples meet, and fascinating to think about where we are likely to get to by the 2030s.

One likely feature of online dating in 2030 and beyond is that it probably won’toften be thought of or described as ‘online’ anymore; in a world where anything and everything will be online, and the internet is everywhere (in every location, on every device), the ‘online-ness’ of online dating (and indeed online shopping, online banking, etc.) will simply no longer seem particularly significant to people.

What will remain important to people in 2030 is finding ‘Mr. or Mrs. Right’, and figuring out the best way to go about it. There will certainly be no shortage of options.

Online dating is set to help ever-growing numbers of people move beyond their immediate social circles and undertake the quest to find love in a safer, more efficient way. Perhaps, in doing so, it willeven contribute to creating a happier Britain in the long term.

[1]The options for daters will continue to diversify in terms of price and approach (despite increasing underlying systems integration) and we may see increasing integration with other social networking platforms: but a specialised interface and set of privacy protocols will continue to have relevance and appeal for daters, and such websites and apps will continue to account for the large majority of relationships-that-begin-online. Growth will describe an s-curve (as it has done so far), levelling off at around 50-55% for all online-starts. The reason we anticipate levelling off at this level is that our survey data tells us that in the very long term (going right back to 25+ years ago), around half of all relationships were formed with strangers, and half with co-workers, friends, and other ‘already-known’ individuals. We expect this historic ratio to remain similar, with online dating and networking set to largely replace (or insert themselves into) other methods of meeting previously unknown others (even in out-of-home leisure venues, some use of mobile and location-based services is likely to be a prelude or accompaniment to real-world contact). Online dating will also supplant a small proportion of relationships that start between ‘known others’ (simply by providing better alternatives), but we expect pre-existing friendships and acquaintances to continue to provide the basis for just under half of all relationships in future.

[2](this is a deliberately broad/vague category of websites which could encompass anything from ‘casual’ dating apps to social networking websites). We readily acknowledge that the lines between these categories are blurred and somewhat at the mercy of subjective perceptions – and they will certainly become increasingly blurred in future. What ‘counts’ as an online dating agency, what distinguishes such a service from one that facilitates more casual or prosaic encounters, is, in part, a question of perception (i.e. shaped by marketing, prior expectations, behaviour of users, etc, as much as technical or functional difference). Our trend data is thus explicitly defined as reflecting respondents’ subjective description of the service/site/app they used, rather than any ‘technical’ boundary.