APPENDIX A-2

GREAT LAKES WATER QUALITY AGREEMENT PHOSPHORUS LOAD RESPONSE

ENSEMBLE MODELING WORKSHOP

September 29-30, 2014, University of Michigan

Registered Participants

Modelers

Auer / Martin / Michigan Tech
Bertani / Isabella / University of Michigan
Bocaniov / Serghei / University of Michigan
Chapra / Steve / Tufts University
Depinto / Joe / LimnoTech
Leon / Luis / Environment Canada
McCrimmon / Craig / Environment Canada
Obenour / Daniel / University of Michigan
Rucinski / Daniel / LimnoTech
Scavia / Don / University of Michigan
Stumpf / Richard / NOAA
Verhamme / Ed / LimnoTech
Yerubandi / Ram / Environment Canada
Zhang / Hongyan / University of Michigan

Observers/Advisors

Chruscicki / Jean / US EPA
George / Sandra / Environment Canada
Perkins / Sarah / Battelle
Redder / Todd / LimnoTech
Schlea / Derek / LimnoTech
Stow / Craig / NOAA-GLERL
Warren / Glenn / US EPA
Wortman / Santina / US EPA

September 29-30, 2014, University of Michigan

214 South State Street, Ann Arbor, MI

September 29, 2014

10:00 AM / Convene, welcome, opening discussion (process, planned outcomes, and evaluation criteria) / Don Scavia
11:00 AM / *Modeling group presentations and discussion
11:00 / Western Basin bloom severity index / Rick Stumpf
11:15 / Western Basin probabilistic cyanobacteria model / Dan Obenour
11:30 / Great Lakes Cladophora model / Marty Auer
12:00 PM / Lunch (provided)
1:00 PM / *Modeling group presentations and discussion, continued
1:00 / TP Mass Balance Model / Steve Chapra
1:30 / 1D Central Basin hypoxia model / Dan Rucinski
2:00 / EcoLE / Hongyan Zhang
2:30 / Lam’s 9-Box Model / Craig McCrimmon
3:00 PM / Break
3:15 PM / *Modeling group presentations and discussion, continued
3:15 / WLEEM / Joe DePinto
4:00 / ELCOM-CAEDYM / Ram Yerubandi, Luis Leon, Serghei Bocaniov
4:45 / Day 1 Recap, Day 2 Preview / Don Scavia
5:00 / Adjourn
5:30 PM / Group dinner at Sava’s Restaurant

September 30, 2014

8:30 AM / Continental breakfast (provided)
9:00 AM / Comparison and discussion of response curves / Don Scavia
Phytoplankton biomass / Steve Chapra
Western Basin Cyanobacterial blooms / Joe DePinto
Central Basin Hypoxia / Serghei Bocaniov
Eastern Basin Cladophora / Marty Auer
10:30 AM / Break
10:45 AM / Assembling the ensemble model / Joe DePinto
12:30 PM / Lunch (provided)
1:15 PM / Group Discussion / Don Scavia
Individual Model Deliverables
Uncertainty in models and ensemble
Updates needed
Next steps, deadlines, writing assignments
3:00 PM / Adjourn