Note on the Index of Economic outlookIndustrial production in1 st Quarter 2009
I-INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
I.1 Comprehensive analysis of industrial production
Industrial activity in the first quarter of 2009 was marked by an increase in production.Indeed, the harmonized index of industrial production in the first quarter of 2009 amounted to 109.6 from 94.9 the previous quarter, an increase of 15.6%.The correct orientation of the activity is attributable to an increase in production of textile and leather, food, construction materials, and to a lesser extent, mining, engineering and other manufacturing industries.In contrast, the wood, paper and cardboard, power generation and chemical industries saw their levels of production decline from the previous quarter.Industrial production averaged the first three months of 2009 compared to that of the corresponding period of 2008 reported an increase of 0.2%.
I.2 Sectoral Analysis of Industrial Production
A surge in production of textile and leather
Unlike the decline in the previous quarter, production of textile and leather industries has grown significantly in the first quarter of 2009.This result is attributable to an upturn in cotton ginning, in conjunction with the production cycle of the main unit of the sub-sector, and at the right pace of entry of seed cotton at the factory.The average production of the first three months of 2009, compared to the corresponding period last year grew by 47.1%.
Increased production of food industries

During the first quarter of 2009, production of foodstuffs rose by 26.7% quarter on quarter.This change reflects a consolidation of the recovery of the sugar manufacturing business started in the previous quarter and a good performance of the production activity of the oil mills.In contrast, production of beverages fell by 26.8% and food from cereals not elsewhere 9.9%.Confectionery manufacture grew when the tobacco was slightly bent.The average production of the first three months of 2009, compared to the corresponding period the previous year improved by 2.3%.
An increase in the activity of construction materials industries
The contraction of building materials industries began in the third 2008, has faded.Indeed, production of construction materials industries in the first quarter of 2009 was up by 17.0% from the previous quarter primarily as a result of rising demand for cement.The decline in the production of clinker could not reverse the upward trend in the industry.The average production of the first three months of 2009, compared to the corresponding period the previous year was enhanced by 8.1%.
An increase in mining production
The increase in mining production began in the previous quarter continued in the first quarter of 2009, up 5.8% qoq.Apart from the sub sector "extraction or production of salt and soda" (-3.8%), all others have seen the level of their production to increase over the period.The average production of the first three months of 2009, compared to the corresponding period the previous year decreased 1.8%.
A production growth of engineering industries
Production engineering industries grew 4.7% quarter on quarter.This evolution of the activity of the branch results from a good performance of the manufacturing equipment and radios, television and communication (+25.6%), other metal products (+16.9%), andsteel products (+5.6%).However, the dynamism observed in the industry has been weakened by the decline recorded in the sub-sector machinery and electrical materials.It should be recalled that in March manufacturing activity equipment and radios, tv recorded zero production.The main production unit who preferred to import and sell in a state of TV stations, instead of producing it.The average production of the first three months of 2009, compared to that of the corresponding period of previous year is below 31.9%.
A slight increase in the activity of other manufacturing
Unlike the previous quarter, production in other manufacturing industries grew slightly by 2.6% from the previous quarter.This change is consequential to the dynamism of the manufacturing activity of mattresses and household candles during the period under review.The average production of the first three months of 2009, compared to the corresponding period of previous year has risen by 36.0%.
A downturn in the wood industries
Production of wood industries in the first quarter 2009 showed a decline of 67.2% from the previous quarter.This result is mainly due to the drop in manufacturing activity of flush doors, in liaison with the difficulties of supply of raw materials, including cons tackles.The average production of the first three months of 2009, compared to that of the corresponding period the previous year fell by 27.4%.
A decrease in activity of industries from paper and cardboard
The dynamism of the activities of industries of paper and paperboard in the second quarter 2008 was dimmed.This resulted in a decline in production of 19.6% over the fourth quarter of 2008.It should be noted that stopping the production of paper and board during the month of January because of staff leave the main production unit of the branch said among other things, the downward trend ofbranch.However, in reference to the first quarter of 2008, average production industries of paper and paperboard rose 3.9%.
A decline in energy production
In the first quarter of 2009, energy production decreased by 6.5% over the previous quarter, reflecting a contrasting trend, evidenced by a slight increase of 0.7% of the activitycapture, processing and distribution of water, and a decline of 11.9% of the production of electricity.The difficulties of fuel supply during the quarter under review from one unit of electricity production explains the decline observed in the sub-sector.Compared to the first quarter of 2008, the average production of energy fell by 9.7%.
A decline in activity of the chemical
As in the previous quarter, production of chemical industries declined by 5.7% from the previous quarter.This development is particularly due to the decline of the activity of pharmaceutical manufacturing, especially in connection with the fall of the production of insecticides, the downturn in manufacturing soaps, detergents and cleaning products, and thatoil refining.It should be noted that the oil refining business has been off during the month of February because of financial difficulties of the main unit of the sub-sector.However, during the period under review chemical production base remained strong due to the resumption of fertilizer production, and growth in the production of phosphoric acid.Compared to the first quarter of 2008, the average production of chemical industries declined by 8.7%.
II-MONITORING OF LABOR INDUSTRY
The analysis is based in part on the use of data collected from sample firms.They are related to changes in certain economic variables such as employment which is measured here by the staff, and payroll for the first quarter of 2009.
The interpretations are based on calculating a simple index, representing the ratio of the amount during the current quarter that corresponding to the average base year.The branch index is the simple average of the previous elementary indices for enterprises.However, it is important to note that the results relate to average 63.9% of firms in the sample who reported their workforce in the quarter under review, and no system of weighting was used in computingthese indices.

II.1 Evolution Quarterly Employment
In the first quarter of 2009, the permanent workforce in industry fell by 1.1% over the previous quarter.This is related to developments of the permanent workforce in the industries of paper and paperboard (-6.4%), textiles and leather (-2.4%), chemicals (-2.0%), energy production (-1.9%), industry of building materials (-1.8%), other manufacturing (-1.1%) and mining (-1.0%).However, it is noted an increase in permanent employment of mechanical engineering (+3.7%) and food (+0.4%), at the time, the wood industries was unchanged during the periodunder review.
Contrary to the trend observed in the previous quarter, the temporary staffing industry in the first quarter of 2009, recorded a decline of 10.4% qoq.This result is a row including a temporary contraction in employment recorded in the wood industries, in conjunction with the slump in manufacturing activity wooden furniture, and a decline in the production of energy.However, it should be noted that the chemical, food and other manufacturing industries have seen growth in the number of temporary staff, thus reducing the downward trend recorded throughout the industry.The number of temporary employees in the textile and leather, paper and cardboard, as well as mechanical did not record substantial changes.
II.2 Quarterly change in payroll
In the first quarter of 2009, the payroll paid to permanent staff in the industry fell by 3.8%, driven mainly by a decline in the chemical industries, and to a lesser extent, food industries andconstruction materials.It should be noted that the contraction of the payroll of permanent staff of the chemical due to lack of payment during the period under review, premiums outstanding at year-end compared to the previous quarter.The total payroll for the extractive industries and energy production, meanwhile, increased slightly qoq.
Under the wage paid to temporary staff in the industry, it was noted during the period under review, down 19.9% ​​qoq, due to almost all sectors except those under paperand board, and the food.Meanwhile, the textile and leather industries have not experienced substantial changes in the remuneration of temporary staff, compared to fourth quarter 2008.
Same level of production
The general outlook for production in industry would be flat in the second quarter of 2009.This view is shared by almost all such business leaders of the mining, paper and paperboard, and chemicals.However, the balance of opinion of the whole industry was down 32.5%.
A downturn in local orders and those from outside
Contrary to the opinion of entrepreneurs in the previous quarter, order books locally and from outside the next quarter would be depleted.Indeed, analysis of the prospects of orders reveals that none of the entrepreneurs is silent for improved controls.However, they are 59.0% to vote for a decrease in orders at the local level and 67.8% for those from outside.The balance of opinion was down 59.0% to order books at the local level and 67.8% for those from outside.
An even level of stocks of finished goods
As in the previous quarter, the company directors (68.3%) expect the same level of stocks of finished goods in the second quarter of 2009, but at a slower pace.However, they are 10.9% to vote for an increase to 20.8% against a decline.The balance of opinion has emerged down 9.9%.
Development prospects and stability of mixed production capacity of the company
In the opinion of business leaders surveyed, the general trend of production would be mitigated in the second quarter of 2009.Indeed, they are 45.5% to provide a stable outlook for production, when 28.5% anticipate an increase and a 25.9% decline.The balance of opinion is 2.6%.
Under the production capacity, 50.8% of business owners are in favor of stability, when 17.9% reported an improvement and a 31.2% decrease, leaving a balance of opinion of -133%.
Outlook for price developments and employment unchanged
In the second quarter of 2009, the evolution of prices and employment would be maintained at the same level as the entrepreneurs interviewed.This stability is expected by 91.0% of them, and the evolution of employment, by 74.7%.The balance of opinion is -1.0% for price changes, whereas that of employment, it is 3.3%.

Stability of the company's competitiveness
Next quarter, the competitiveness of enterprises remain unchanged, but less intense than the previous quarter, according to the opinion of business leaders.This stability is expected by 60.8% of business leaders, when 6.1% of them provide good guidance against 33.1% a worsening.The balance of opinion was down 27.0%.