USC Marshall School of Business
Seminar In MKT 615Fall 2013
Strategic Dynamic Models (Tellis)
Fall 2013 Schedule
Course Syllabus
(Revised 22 August, 2013)
Instructor: Gerard J. Tellis
Professor of Marketing, Neely Chair in American Enterprise
Director of Global Innovation Center
814 HOF. Phone: 2137405031 email:
url: www.gtellis.net
Seminar Times: 3:30 PM to 6:20 PM, Mondays, Aug 26th to Oct 14th, 2013, HOH 506
Office Hours: By appointment
Readings: Readings available from Ruth Joya in the marketing department
References: Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions
Lilien, Kotler, & Moorthy, Marketing Models
Hanssens, Parsons and Schultz, Market Response Models: Econometric and Time Series
Description
The seminar focuses on strategic dynamic models in marketing. The seminar focuses on how dynamic models solve strategic issues. The seminar will provide an introduction to the models and an intuition of their working. The schedule describes the models, topics and readings that will be covered in each session. Papers listed under “Discussion” will be presented and critiqued. Papers listed under “Background” give a sense of the literature on the topic. Prior knowledge of econometrics, statistics, and time series models would be helpful, though it is not a pre-requisite.
One of the best ways for doctoral candidates to understand a research area is to critically review articles describing research in that area. While less efficient than following a textbook, the approach provides a deeper understanding of specific issues, a better appreciation of the research process, and stronger training in research skills than the textbook approach. So the seminar will consist primarily (though not exclusively) of a discussion of key articles on each topic. The instructor will present most of the articles he has co-authored. Students will be challenged to present some of the other articles assigned for discussion and to critique all articles. The class discussion will evaluate the presentations. The instructor will provide his perspective on the articles and the direction of research.
Goals
The seminar seeks to:
1) Expose students to important problems in strategic marketing
2) Help students understand how various dynamic models address these problems.
3) Familiarize students with findings in the area.
4) Refine students’ skills in reviewing articles and integrating literature.
Method
The sessions will involve a discussion of the readings assigned for the day, classified by Discussion readings and Background readings. Students should read all papers and participate constructively in the discussion of every reading, even if they are not responsible for the presentation. In addition, on each session, some students will have one of two assignments: 1) Prepare a summary and critique of a paper. 2) Prepare only a critique of a paper. Because we have more students than articles assigned, students will have 3 to 4 such assignments by the end of the first half of the semester. Students will have to prepare these critiques on PowerPoint and deliver to the class on the scheduled date. Students should email the presentation to the instructor ahead of class or bring it to class on a thumb drive. They should make handouts (6 per page) of the presentation for all participants in the seminar (currently 8). Students should not consult notes, reviews, or answers of former students of this course, when preparing these assignments.
Attendance
Students need to attend all sessions punctually and should inform the instructor ahead of time for any absence.
Grading
Grades will be based on the instructor’s assessment of a student’s learning and contribution. Weights will be as follows:
Class Participation 25%
Critiques presented 35%
Partially closed book final exam 40%
Final Exam
The final exam will consist of answering two of four questions in a 3 to 4 hour period. The exam is partially closed book. Students may bring their own hand written or printed notes to the exam but not bring others’ notes and printed or electronic material, articles, or books. They should not use laptops, tablets, or smart phones.
MKT 615 I Strategic Dynamic Models (Tellis)
Fall 2013 Tentative Schedule
No
/ Date / Model/Method / Topic/Guest / Authors
(Highlights indicate readings not included in Course Reader or Dropbox)
1a / Aug 26th / Phil Method / Philosophy of Science / Discussion: Davis 1973Background: Kuhn 2012; Fader 2012; Varian 1997
1b / Aug 26th / Archival research / Market Entry, Innovation / Discussion: Golder & Tellis 1993; Chandy and Tellis 2000; Johnson & Tellis 2008;
Background: Kuhn 2012
2 / Sep 9th / Bass Model,
FDA / Diffusion / Discussion: Bass 1969; Sood & James & Tellis 2009; Jiang and Jain 2012
Background: Chandrasekaran and Tellis 2006
3 / Sep 16th / Koyck Model, ADL / Advertising Response / Discussion: Clarke 1972; Tellis & Chandy & Thaivanich2000; Tellis & Franses 2006; Teixeira Wedel Pieters 2010
Background: Sethuraman & Tellis & Briesch 2011
4 / Sep 23rd / VAR / Miscell. / Discussion: Dekimpe and Hanssens (2004); Pauwels et al (2004);
Tirunillai and Tellis (2012)
Background: Tirunillai and Tellis (2012) Technical Appendix
5 / Sep 30th / Hazard Model / Innovation,
Takeoff / Discussion: Tellis & Stremersch & Yin 2003; Srinivasan & Lilien & Rangaswamy 2006; Sood & Tellis 2011
Background: Hauser, Tellis & Griffin 2006; Hernandez & Tellis 2013; Golder and Tellis 1997
6 / Oct 7th / Event Analysis,
DID, DSC / Financial Returns to Marketing / Discussion: Fornell et al 2006; Sood & Tellis 2009; Abadie & Diamond & and Hainmueller (2010); Tirunillai & Tellis 2013b
Background: Srinivasan and Hanssens 2009
7 / Oct 14th / LDA / Social Media / Discussion: Godes and Mayzlin 2004; Bayus 2011; Yoganarasimhan 2011; Tirunillai and Tellis 2013a
Background:
Acronyms:
· FDA = Functional Data Analysis
· ADL = Autoregressive Distributed Lag model
· VAR = Vector AutoRegressive model
· DID = Difference in Difference analysis
· DSC = Dynamic Synthetic Control
· LDA = Latent Dirichlet Allocation
Readings
Bass, F. M. (1969) / “A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables.” Management Science, 15(5): pp. 215-227
Bayus, Barry / “Crowdsourcing New Product Ideas Over Time: An Analysis of the Dell IdeaStorm Community,” Management Science.
Clarke, D. G. (1976) / ”Econometric Measurement of the Duration of Advertising Effect on Sales.” Journal of Marketing Research, 13(4): pp. 345-357
Chandrasekaran, D. and Tellis, G. J. (2007) / “A Critical Review of Marketing Research on Diffusion of New Products.” In Review of Marketing Research, vol. 3, Malhotra, N. K. (ed.). Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharp
Chapter 2, pp. 39-80
Chandy, Rajesh and Gerard J. Tellis (2000) / “The Incumbent's Curse? Incumbency, Size and Radical Product Innovation,” Journal of Marketing, 64, 3 (July), 1 to 17.
Davis, Murray (1973) / “That's Interesting! Towards a Phenomenology of Sociology and a Sociology of Phenomenology,” Phil. Soc. Sci. 1 (1971), 309-344
Dekimpe, M. and Hanssens, D. (2004) / “Persistence Modeling for Assessing Marketing Strategy Performance,” In Assessing Marketing Strategy Performance. Moorman, C. and Lehmann, D. (eds.). Cambridge, Mass.: Marketing Science Institute, pp. 69-93
Fader, Peter (2012) / “Marketing vs Economics: Gymnastics or High-Wire Act?” Today, Knowledge @ Wharton
Fornell et al (2006) / “Customer Satisfaction and Stock Prices: High Returns, Low Risk“ Journal of Marketing, 70 (January), 3-14
Godes, David and Dina Mayzlin (2004) / Using Online Conversation to Study Word-of –Moth Communication, Marketing Science, 23 (Fall), 545-560
Golder Peter N. and Gerard J. Tellis (1993) / “Pioneering Advantage: Marketing Logic or Marketing Legend,” Journal of Marketing Research.
Golder, Peter N. and Gerard J. Tellis (1997) / “Will It Ever Fly? Modeling The Takeoff of New Consumer Durables,” Marketing Science, 16, 3, 256-270.
Hauser John, Gerard J. Tellis and Abbie Griffin (2007) / “Research on Innovation and New Products: A Review and Agenda for Marketing Science,” Marketing Science, 25, 6, 687-717.
Jiang Z and D Jain 2012 / “A Generalized Norton-Bass Model for Multigenerational Diffusion,” INSEAD Working Paper
Johnson, Joseph and Gerard J. Tellis (2008), / “Drivers of Success for Market Entry Into China and India,” Journal of Marketing, 72 (May) 1-13.
Kuhn, T. S. (2012) / The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, Amazon.com
Hernandez, Carlos, Effraimidis and Tellis, G. J. (2013) / “A Trivariate Hazard Model of Price-Sales Crashes for New Products.”
Working Paper.
Pauwels, K., Silva-Risso, J., Srinivasan, S. and Hanssens, D. M. (2004) / “New Products, Sales Promotions, and Firm Value: The Case of the Automobile Industry.” Journal of Marketing, 68(4): pp. 142–156
Sethuraman, Raj, Gerard J. Tellis, and Richard Briesch (2011) / “How Well Does Advertising Work? Generalizations from a Meta-Analysis of Brand Advertising Elasticity,” Journal of Marketing Research, XLVIII, June, 457-471.
Sood, A. and Tellis, G. J. (2009) / “Do Innovations Really Payoff? Total Stock Market Returns to Innovation.” Marketing Science, 28(3): pp. 442-456
Sood, A., James, G. M. and Tellis, G. J. (2009) / “The Functional Regression: A New Model for Predicting the Market Penetration of New Products.” Marketing Science, 28(1): 1, 36-51
Sood, A. and Tellis, G. J. (2011) / “Demystifying Disruptions: A New Model for Understanding and Predicting Disruptive Technologies.” Marketing Science, 30(2): pp. 339-354
Srinivasan, R.,
Lilien, G. L. and Rangaswamy, A. (2006) / “The Emergence of Dominant Designs.” Journal of Marketing, 70(2): pp. 1-17
Srinivasan, S. and Hanssens, D. M. (2009) / “Marketing and Firm Value: Metrics, Methods, Findings, and Future Directions.” Journal of Marketing Research, 46(3): pp. 293-312
Tellis, G. J. and Franses, P. H. (2006) / “Optimal Data Interval for Advertising Response Models.” Marketing Science, 25(3): pp. 217-229
Tellis, G. J., Stremersch, S. and Yin, E. (2003) / “The International Takeoff of New Products: Economics, Culture and Country Innovativeness.” Marketing Science, 22(2): pp. 188-208
Tellis, G. J., Chandy, R. and Thaivanich, P. (2000) / “Which Ad Works, When, Where, and How Often? Modeling the Effects of Direct Television Advertising.“ Journal of Marketing Research, 37 (1): pp. 32-46
Teixeira, T. S., Wedel, M. and Peters, R. (2010) / “Moment-to-Moment Optimal Branding in TV Commercials: Preventing Avoidance by Pulsing.“ Marketing Science, 29(5): pp. 783-804
Tirunillai, S. and Tellis, G. J. (2013b) / “Does Offline Advertising Affect Online Chatter? A Dynamic Difference-in-Difference Analysis.” Working Paper not yet available
Tirunillai, S. and Tellis, G. T. (2013a) / “Extracting Dimensions of Quality from User Generated Data: An Integrated Approach Based on Latent Dirichlet Allocation” Working Paper
Tirunillai, S. and Tellis, G. T. (2012) / “Does Chatter Really Matter? Dynamics of User-Generated Content and Stock Performance.” Marketing Science, 31(2): pp. 198-215
Varian, Hal R. (1997) / “How to Build an Economic Model in Your Spare Time,” in Passion and Craft: Economists at Work
Yoganarasimhan, Hema (2012) / “Impact of Social Network Structure on Content Propagation: A Study Using YouTube Data” QME, 10, 111-150
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