Georgia Garney
October 31, 2016
GOVT 552
Many countries around the world have been profoundly shaped by their colonial histories, leaving lasting impacts on their culture, economies, and political systems. This phenomenon has been felt in many post-colonial states, but are particular acute in parts of Africa. One such state, Rwanda, has had a tumultuous history during the years since achieving independence in 1962. Rwanda has made huge strides in development since independence, and the upcoming presidential election in 2017 provides an opportunity for greater gains. This assessment is designed to analyze Rwandan history and society, the Rwandan political system, and Rwandan politics in order to identify potential sources of instability and violence in the upcoming presidential election in August 2017. Following the analysis of the vulnerabilities, a variety of stakeholder recommendations designed to reduce or mitigate electoral violence will be presented.
Colonial and Post-Colonial History of Rwanda
Rwandan history is marked by a variety of the same factors apparent throughout the African continent, namely the experience of colonialism. Rwanda is comprised of three major ethnic groups: the Hutus (about 85% of the population), the Tutsi (about 14% of the population), and the Twa (about 1% of the population).[1] Historically, it is believed that the Hutus migrated to the region first by the end of the 11th century, followed by the Tutsi in the end of the 14th century.[2] Upon their arrival in the region now known as Rwanda, the Tutsi were able to obtain economic, political, and social control over the Hutu through their advanced combat skills.[3] Over time, the relationship between the Hutu and the Tutsi became that of a feudal system, with power in the hands of the Tutsi minority.[4] Following the 1885 Conference of Berlin, Rwanda was declared a German colony.[5] During German colonial rule, the Germans ruled through the Tutsi elite, perpetuating the power differentiation in place during the pre-colonial period.[6] Following the German defeat in World War I, the League of Nations issued a new mandate, declaring Rwanda under Belgian rule.[7] During the Belgian period, the power of the Tutsi over the Hutu was reduced, though not completely extinguished. With the creation of the United Nations, the Belgian mandate was changed in order to provide greater opportunity for political representation of Rwandans.[8] In response to increasing unrest, preliminary voting for recognition of a Rwandan state began in 1960, with formal independence granted on June 27, 1962.[9]
Following independence, the Rwandan state went through a variety of political and societal upheavals. Beginning as early as 1963, ethnic violence between the Hutus and the Tutsi was being committed. A Tutsi invasion of Rwanda in 1963, though repelled, led to a massacre of over 12,000 Tutsi living in the state by the Hutu, leading to an even greater exodus of the Tutsi tribe.[10] Following this violence, a bloodless coup allowed the rise of Major General Juvenal Habyarimana in 1973.[11] As the head of Rwanda’s sole political party, Habyarimana was able to temporarily suspend the original constitution and run for office multiple times. However, a civil war broke out in Rwanda in 1990. The civil war was sparked by the invasion of between 5,000 and 10,000 Tutsi members of the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) from neighboring Uganda, leading to continued violence until a ceasefire was signed in 1991; however, sporadic fighting continued until the signing of the Arusha Peace Accords in 1993.[12] Ethnic violence came to a peak in Rwanda in 1994 when a plane carrying President Habyarimana of Rwanda and the President of Burundi was shot down in April 1994, killing both Presidents.[13] This served as the spark for the Rwandan genocide, a massacre of 100 days leading to the death of over 1,000,000 people throughout Rwanda.[14] While the killings primarily targeted Tutsi, Hutus sympathetic to the Tutsi were also targeted. The genocide ended in July 1994, as the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) successfully took control of the capital of Kigali back from the Hutu government.[15]
The history of ethnic violence and the 1994 Rwandan genocide has had a profound impact on the development of Rwanda today. Though officially there is no ethnic bias in Rwandan politics today, the following sections will examine the current political tensions rooted in the end of the Rwandan genocide.
The Rwandan Political System and Election History
The Rwandan political structure is that of a presidential republic. The head of state is the President, elected by a majority popular vote. The President appoints his Prime Minister. The legislative branch is bicameral, composed of the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies. The Senate is comprised of 26 seats of which 12 are elected by local councils, 8 appointed by the President, 4 appointed by the Political Organizations Forum, and 2 selected by institutions of higher learning.[16] The Chamber of Deputies contains 80 seats. Of these 80 seats, 53 are designated for individuals who are elected by a proportional representation vote, 24 are for women appointed by various special interest groups, and 3 are designated individuals selected by youth and disability organizations. Members of the Senate serve eight-year terms, while members of the Chamber of Deputies serve five-year terms.
The political situation in Rwanda has been greatly affected by the 1994 genocide. Following the genocide in 1994, the RPF designated their leader Pasteur Bizimungu, a Hutu, as the President of Rwanda. The RPF then worked to implement the transitional national government that was initially designed by the Arusha Accords, which created a body of 70 representative seats.[17] During the following few years, the government oversaw the judicial proceeding for the genocide trials, assisted by the United Nations and the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda.[18] This period was marked by many political tensions. In 1995 the transitional national-unity government was disbanded.[19] As a result, politicians, military officers, and judges who had stayed in Rwanda following the RPF accession to power were threatened and they began to flee the country.[20] During this period, the RPF government officially followed an ethnically neutral policy, yet access to power, wealth, and knowledge was only available to the Tutsi elite.[21] The consolidation of power by the Tutsi created tension between the party and their Hutu leader, President Bizimungu. President Bizimungu resigned from his post as President in 2000 in response to the growing Tutsi domination in the political sphere.[22] Bizimungu was later sentenced to fifteen years in jail in 2001 after attempting to set up a new political party.[23] Bizimungu’s departure from the RPF and his subsequent sentencing are examples of the consolidation of power by the Tutsi RPF party.
The first local elections held in Rwanda following the genocide took place in 2001. Official records from the election found that over 90% of the country participated in these elections.[24] Due to the ongoing ethnic situation in the country, over 200 international election officials monitored these elections in order to ensure that they were carried out non-violently and in accordance with proper procedures.[25] Following these elections, there were minor reports of forced voting and lack of transparency, catalogued in a Human Rights Watch report.[26] The 2001 local elections were generally considered a success by the international community and marked the continual development of the new Rwandan political system post-genocide.
The 2003 elections serve as the end of the post-genocide political transition period. The August 2003 elections are the first multi-party presidential and parliamentary elections held in Rwanda. Campaigning for the August 2003 elections played a role in the eventual outcome of the election. Dates for the election were only announced in May 2003; elections had previously been scheduled for that November, however the date was moved up to August.[27] Paul Kagame from the RPF party won the presidential election with 95% of the votes, followed by his opponent Faustin Twagiramungu with 3.6% of the vote.[28] The RPF party won the most seats in the parliamentary election with 73% of the vote; the remaining parliamentary seats went to RPF allies or coalition party members.[29] The 2003 elections marked one of the first instances of political choice for Rwandan citizens, and the outcome of these elections heavily favored the ruling RPF party and their allies.
Rwanda next held presidential elections seven years later in 2010, as per the guidelines set out in their newly established constitution. As written in the constitution, the incumbent Paul Kagame was eligible to run for a second term, however the constitution stipulated a maximum of two terms. During the 2010 elections, Rwanda operated with a new electoral code, which brought together provisions for the variety of elections into a single document and introduced a three-tiered process to tabulate votes, which integrated the district and national levels.[30] According to official data published after the elections, a total of 5,049,302 Rwandans participated in the elections, equaling 97.5% of the overall population.[31] The incumbent, Paul Kagame, was successfully elected with 93.1% of the votes, with his nearest candidate, Jean Damascene Ntwaukuriyayo of the Social Democratic Party, receiving only 5.2% of the overall vote.[32] The 2010 presidential elections mark only the second instance of popular voting since the 1994 genocide. The results of the elections closely mirrored the results of the previous elections in 2003, which sustained the leadership of Paul Kagame and the RPF party.
Election Risk Factors
Rwanda has had a tumultuous political and electoral history in the almost 55 years since they gained independence in 1962. While great strides have been achieved in the development of Rwanda in recent years, particularly since the 1994 genocide, some questions remain over the democratic nature of the 2003 and 2010 elections, which contribute to the potential for violence in the upcoming presidential elections in 2017. A variety of risk factors have been identified in previous elections, which may contribute to increasing conflict during the 2017 elections. Each of these election risk factors will be addressed in separate sections below, following the framework created by USAID and Creative Associates International, which analyzes the election risk factors according to four separate analytical categories including security risk factors, political risk factors, economic risk factors, and social risk factors.
Security Risk Factors
The Rwandan context, while no longer an active conflict environment, is beginning to transition out of a post-conflict environment. The genocide was formally halted with the ascension of the RPF to power in 1994, and there have been very few instances of ethnically motivated violence in recent years, in part to do the success of transitional justice mechanisms such as the Gacaca system of local community justice courts. However despite these gains, a primary source of security-based risks is the ongoing violence and targeting of political dissenters.
The Rwandan political system is characterized by the prevalence of assassination attempts on the lives of party and non-party dissenters. Since the beginning of Kagame’s rule and the general RPF leadership, there have been continued controversies surrounding murder of high-ranking Rwandan exiles. In response to violence against opposition leaders in exile, General Kayumba Nyamwasa the former Chief of Staff for the Rwandan Armed Forces, Colonel Patrick Karegeya the former Rwandan Chief of Intelligence, Dr. Theogene Rudasingwa the former Secretary General of the RPF, Ambassador to the United States, and Chief of Staff to the President, and Gerald Gahima the former Prosecutor General of Rwanda and Vice President of the Supreme Court, published the Rwanda Briefing. The Rwanda Briefing was designed to illuminate the authoritarian nature of Kagame and the RPF rule. In the report, the authors chronicle the violence perpetrated against those who speak out against the regime, including instances of extrajudicial killings, disappearances, and assassinations.[33] The authors of the report have all been subject to assassination attempts, sometimes repeatedly, and they argue that the “explicitly violent and repressive way in which the RPF deals with political opposition and critical civil society has turned Rwanda back into de factor one-party dictatorship.”[34] One of the most recent reports of an assassination is that of Colonel Karegeya. Colonel Karegeya had sought asylum in South Africa in 2008, following a falling out with Kagame and the RPF party.[35] He was working with South African and Tanzanian intelligence services in an advisory capacity when he was murdered at his hotel in Johannesburg.[36] Similar attempts have also been made on the lives of other opposition leaders living in South Africa, including General Nyamwasa, the former Chief of Staff for the Rwandan Armed Forces.[37] General Nyamwasa has survived two assassination attempts and is currently in hiding with South African state protection.[38] However this violence is not limited to high-level opposition leaders. In 2014, a number of decomposing bodies were found in Lake Wreru, on the border between Rwanda and Burundi.[39] Investigators believe that these bodies traveled down the Akagera River from Rwanda to arrive at the shores of Burundi.[40] These examples illuminate a worrying trend of violence perpetrated against dissenters to the RPF government and Paul Kagame. While these instances are not tied to elections and the electoral process, they are a concerning factor of a lack of true democracy and political freedoms in the country, and they indicate a potential area for continued violence in the future.
Political Risk Factors
As discussed above, Rwanda is formally considered a democratic system on the basis of its governmental structure as a presidential republic. Rwanda formally conducts elections for both the office of president and for its legislative bodies. However, the political system is the primary area of concern in creating cleavages that will pose as a risk factor in the upcoming election cycle.
The first political risk factor identified in this report is that of the constitutional referendum held in Rwanda in December 2015. The Rwandan constitution initially limited presidential candidates to a limit of two seven-year terms in office. The movement for a constitutional change was motivated by a petition signed by 3.7 million Rwandans, which was presented to parliament.[41] The constitutional amendment was unanimously supported by the Rwandan parliament, allowing it to be presented to the Rwandan people in a referendum vote.[42] The amendment would allow the incumbent president Kagame to run for a third seven year term, if elected, before limiting the term length to two five year terms, which Kagame would also be eligible to run for.[43] This would mean that Kagame would be eligible to hold office for an additional 17 years, totaling a presidency of 31 years.[44] In the referendum voting, there was an overwhelming turnout of Rwandans, leading to an overall vote count of 98% in favor of the constitutional change allowing for subsequent terms.[45] The voting process has received widespread criticism for a variety of reasons. In response to the referendum, a culture of fear surrounded the opposition, with many opposition party members preferring to speak anonymously for fear of retribution violence for speaking out against the presidential term limit extension.[46] In addition to pressures on the opposition party, there have been reports of forced voting and the presence of security agents in order to ensure that citizens voted and that they voted yes.[47] The referendum has also received widespread international criticism with representatives from the European Union saying that the election “undermines the principle of democratic change of government”[48] along with condemnation from the United States State Department calling for Kagame to step down.[49] While there have been few reports of outright violence following the results of the referendum and Kagame’s announcement of his intention to run again, similar procedures leading to violence in neighboring states may increase the potential risk. One such example is nearby Burundi, where the announcement that the incumbent Pierre Nkurunziza would seek a third term plunged the country into extreme violence, with some calling it genocide.[50] Similarly, protests in Burkina Faso in West Africa were launched after their incumbent announced a change to term limits, leading to his eventual flight into exile.[51] The constitutional amendment represents an increased potential for political repression and even violence in Rwanda during the August 2017 presidential election cycle.