1. Title: the Shape of Things to Come
Foreign Affairs
Volume 93, Issue 1, Jan/Feb2014
1. Title: The Shape of Things to Come
Authors:Rose, Gideon; Tepperman, Jonathan.
Abstract:An introduction is presented in which the editors discuss the topics of articles in the issue including countries poised for significant economic growth in the coming period as of 2014 such as Mexico, Turkey, and Indonesia, and general considerations in the field of economic forecasting.
2. Title:Mexico
Authors:O'Neil, Shannon K.
Abstract:The article looks at economic conditions, economic policy, and politics in Mexico, as of 2014. It outlines changes in the Mexican economy in recent decades, including trade liberalization, a growing middle class, and the movement of low-wage and manufacturing jobs. It discusses international trade agreements in which the country participates, including the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Other topics include crime and domestic security, foreign investment, the policies of Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto, and the implication's of China's economic development.
3.Title:South Korea
Authors:Noland, Marcus.
Abstract:The article looks at economic conditions, economic policy, and government in South Korea, as of 2014. It outlines the country's rapid economic growth since the 1960s, noting it has achieved a high per-capita income and is classified as a wealthy industrialized country. It cites government intervention and industrial policy as factors in the country's economic development and discusses the country's political shift from authoritarianism to democracy over the same period. Other topics include the demographic trend toward a smaller labor force, foreign commercial relations, and possible reunification with North Korea.
4. Title:Poland
Authors:Orenstein, Mitchell A.
Abstract:The article looks at economic conditions, economic policy, and government in Poland, as of 2014. It outlines the country's history, including its lack of sovereignty in the 19th century, the severe impact of World War II, and the post-war period of communist domination. It describes its rapid economic growth since 1989, citing factors including economic reforms implemented after the fall of communism, the country's membership in the European Union (EU), particularly its close economic ties with Germany, and its low wages compared to other EU countries. Topics include government bureaucracy and transparency, the country's strong education system, and research and development (R&D) and infrastructure investment.
5. Title:Turkey
Authors:Dombey, Daniel.
Abstract:The article looks at economic conditions, economic policy, and government in Turkey, as of 2014. It outlines economic trends over the past decade during the tenure of Justice and Development Party (AKP) Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, citing strong economic growth and noting the country has reduced both inflation and unemployment and paid off its International Monetary Fund (IMF) debt. It discusses factors that may portend future weakening of the country's economy, including its dependence on short-term forms of foreign investment and its relatively low labor force participation rate. Topics include Turkey's energy imports, gender inequality, and educational attainment. The impact of changes in U.S. monetary policy are discussed.
6. Title:Indonesia and the Philippines
Authors:Brooks, Karen.
Abstract:The article looks at economic conditions, economic policy, and government in Indonesia and the Philippines, as of 2014. It outlines the rapid economic growth both countries have achieved in recent years and discusses their future prospects. For Indonesia, it discusses issues including the country's dependence on the commodities sector, its falling oil and natural gas production, its high current account deficit, and shifts in the value of its currency, the rupiah. For the Philippines, it discusses issues including persistent poverty and the need to implement economic reforms so as to attract more foreign investment.
7. Title:The Mekong Region
Authors: Pongsudhirak, Thitinan.
Abstract:The article looks at economic conditions, economic policy, and government in mainland Southeast Asia, comprising Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Burma, or Myanmar, and Yunnan Province, China, as of January 2014. It says the region has achieved strong economic growth in recent years and generally have positive economic indicators including current account and foreign debt levels. It notes the region is linked by the Mekong River and outlines infrastructure projects including the building of roads and railroads to enhance their integration. Topics include demographic trends, foreign investments, education and health care systems, and potential sources of political instability.
8. Title:The Ever-Emerging Markets
Authors:Sharma, Ruchir.
Abstract:The article looks at the prospects of the emerging markets nations and issues in economic forecasting, as of 2014. The author notes that economic forecasts are frequently wrong and discusses sources of forecasting error, including extrapolating past trends into the future, focusing exclusively on a single causal factor to explain economic growth, and ignoring the impact of political factors on economic policy. He discusses these issues with respect to emerging economies including China, Mexico, the Philippines, and Brazil. He also describes a general cyclical pattern in which countries adopt economic reforms during periods of poor economic performance, then reverse those policies when the economy improves.
9. Title:The Unruled World
Authors:Patrick, Stewart.
Abstract:The article looks at international relations as of 2014, focusing on the institutions and practices of global governance. The author discusses the United Nations, noting that proposed reforms to the membership of the U.N. Security Council have not occurred. He discusses regional and other multilateral organizations such as the Group of Eight (G-8), the Group of Twenty (G-20), and the African Union. He notes that temporary and ad hoc multinational coalitions have been created to address issues such as climate change and peacekeeping. He discusses international governance issues related to three significant common resources, the seas, outer space, and cyberspace.
10. Title:How China Is Ruled
Authors: Lampton, David M.
Abstract:The article looks at politics and government in China as of 2014, focusing on long-term trends in the country's economic reform era beginning in the 1970s under Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping. The author presents a case for the view that the country's existing political institutions, including the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), are becoming inadequate and will need to undergo change if the country is to maintain political stability in the face of its dramatic social and economic changes. Topics include the fragmentation of Chinese society and the emergence of varied interest groups both within and outside government, the greater access of the population to information and the growing importance of public opinion, and the likelihood of democratization.
11. Title:Americas Social Democratic Future
Authors:Kenworthy, Lane.
Abstract:The article looks at economic policy and politics in the U.S., as of 2014. The author presents a case for the view that the U.S. will move toward a more social democratic system in the future. He outlines economic problems in the U.S., including persistent economic insecurity for a significant share of the population, a growing income gap, and relatively low intergenerational economic mobility. He cites social democratic policies that would address these problems and says that those policies can coincide with market reforms to keep the country internationally competitive. The Scandinavian countries are cited as models. Topics include the Earned Income Tax Credit and other tax policies and the political prospects of Democrats and Republicans.
12. Title:Running the Pentagon Right
Authors:Carter, Ashton B.
Abstract:The article looks at the U.S. armed forces as of 2014, focusing on the ability of the U.S. Defense Department to rapidly identify and address military needs that arise during a war. The author, a former U.S. Undersecretary of Defense, says that the department carries out long-term planning well but that the recent wars in Iraq and Afghanistan revealed its weakness in the area of addressing immediate military needs. He describes the case of roadside improvised explosive devices (IEDs), saying it took a long time for the department to recognize the need for more protective vehicles for U.S. military personnel and to develop and provide them. Topics include the department's procurement process and communication of battlefield conditions to senior officials.
13. Title:The Rise and Fall of the Failed-State Paradigm
Authors: Mazarr, Michael J.
Abstract:The article looks at international relations and U.S. foreign policy as of 2014, focusing on the country's foreign policy priorities and its stance toward failed states. The author presents a case for the view that the focus on interventionist state-building policies reflected in the U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is the wrong strategic direction for U.S. foreign policy. He outlines the history of U.S. foreign policy after the end of the Cold War, noting that the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks resulted in a focus on failed states as a cause of terrorism, but says that terrorism is not closely linked to failed states. Topics include the U.S. role in bolstering regional alliances that foster international stability and the inherent challenges of state-building.
14. Title:NAFTAs Economic Upsides
Authors: Hills, Carla A.
Abstract:The article looks at the record of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as of 2014, the 20th anniversary of its implementation. The author, a former U.S. Trade Representative, outlines the benefits of the agreement, including a sharp increase in trade and foreign investment between Mexico, Canada, and the U.S., the creation of valuable export opportunities for small- and medium-sized U.S. businesses, and the creation of an integrated North American economic bloc able to compete with other world regions. Topics include negotiations over the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, trends in Mexican immigration to the U.S., and the debate over NAFTA's impact on jobs in the U.S.
15.Title:NAFTA's Unfinished Business
Authors: Wilson, Michael.
Abstract:The article looks at the record of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as of 2014, the 20th anniversary of its implementation, focusing on its impact in Canada. The author, a former Canadian Minister of International Trade, says the agreement has provided significant economic benefits to Canada but that the goal of full economic integration among Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. has not yet been realized. He cites factors including negative public opinion about free trade policies in the U.S. and tighter border security measures implemented following the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks against the U.S. Topics include "Buy American" policies, efforts to coordinate business regulations among the three countries, and cooperation among them on energy policy and climate change.
16. Title:NAFTAs Mixed Record
Authors: CastañEda, Jorge G.
Abstract:The article looks at the record of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as of 2014, the 20th anniversary of its implementation, focusing on its impact in Mexico. The author, a former foreign minister of Mexico, describes the agreement as having mixed results for the country, saying it led to a sharp increase in trade and exports but that it has not had the beneficial effects in terms of more rapid economic growth and higher incomes that its proponents promised. Topics include Mexico's infrastructure and energy industry, foreign investment, and differences between the economic integration created by NAFTA and that of the European Union (EU).
17. Title:Iceland's Saga
Authors:
Abstract:An interview with Iceland President Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson is presented. Asked about international relations in the Arctic region in the context of its greater accessibility due to climate change, he cites the cooperation among Russia, the U.S., Canada, and the Nordic countries in the venue of the Arctic Council as a positive model. Other topics include Iceland's late-2000s financial crisis, trends in its banking industry, and the international information disclosure group Wikileaks.
18. Title: Blind Oracle
Authors: Katz, Richard.
Abstract: A letter to the editor is presented in response to the article "Never Saw It Coming" by Alan Greenspan which appeared in the November/December 2013 issue.
19. Title: Reverse the Curse
Authors: Boudreaux, Karol; Mennen, Tiernan.
Abstract: A letter to the editor is presented in response to the article "Petroleum to the People," by Larry Diamond and Jack Mosbacher, which appeared in the September/October 2013 issue.
以下是书评：
20. Title:Let the People Go
Authors: Clemens, Michael; Sandefur, Justin.
Abstract:The article reviews the book "Exodus: How Migration Is Changing Our World," by Paul Collier.
21. Title:From Shah to Supreme Leader
Authors: Secor, Laura.
Abstract:The article reviews the books "Days of God: The Revolution in Iran and Its Consequences," by James Buchan, and "Revolutionary Iran," by Michael Axworthy.
22. Title:Command and Combust
Authors:Koblentz, Gregory D.
Abstract:The article reviews the book "Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Elusion of Safety," by Eric Schlosser.
23. Title:Art in the Time of Authoritarianism
Authors: Pérez-Díaz, Victor.
Abstract:The article reviews the book "Franco's Crypt: Spanish Culture and Memory Since 1936," by Jeremy Treglown.
24. Title:Political and Legal
Authors: Ikenberry, G. John.
Abstract:The article reviews several books including "If Mayors Ruled the World: Dysfunctional Nations, Rising Cities," by Benjamin R. Barber, "Global Intellectual History," edited by Samuel Moyn and Andrew Sartori, and "NATO Before the Korean War: April 1949-June 1950," by Lawrence S. Kaplan.
25. Title:Economic, Social, and Environmental
Authors: Cooper, Richard N.
Abstract:The article reviews several books including "A Case for Climate Engineering," by David Keith, "The Price of Rights: Regulating International Labor Migration," by Martin Ruhs, and "Against the Consensus: Reflections on the Great Recession," by Justin Yifu Lin.
26. Title:Military, Scientific, and Technological
Authors:Freedman, Lawrence D.
Abstract:The article reviews several books including "The Terrorist's Dilemma: Managing Violent Covert Organizations," by Jacob N. Shapiro, "Decoding Al-Qaeda's Strategy: The Deep Battle against America," by Michael W. S. Ryan, and "Churchill's Bomb: How the United States Overtook Britain in the First Nuclear Arms Race," by Graham Farmelo.
27. Title:The United States
Authors: Mead, Walter Russell.
Abstract:The article reviews several books including "The War of 1812: Writings from America's Second War of Independence," edited by Donald R. Hickey, "The Myth of America's Decline: Politics, Economics, and a Half Century of False Prophecies," by Josef Joffe, and "Conservative Internationalism: Armed Diplomacy under Jefferson, Polk, Truman, and Reagan," by Henry R. Nau.
28. Title:Western Europe
Authors: Moravcsik, Andrew.
Abstract:The article reviews several books including "In Spies We Trust: The Story of Western Intelligence," by Rhodri Jeffreys-Jones, "Empire of Secrets: British Intelligence, the Cold War, and the Twilight of Empire," by Calder Walton, and "The Democratic Foundations of Policy Diffusion: How Health, Family, and Employment Laws Spread across Countries," by Katerina Linos.
29. Title:Western Hemisphere
Authors:Feinberg, Richard; FISHLOW, ALBERT; CRUZ, JR., ARTURO.
Abstract:The article reviews several books including "The Fate of Freedom Elsewhere: Human Rights and U.S. Cold War Policy toward Argentina," by William Michael Schmidli, "The Structure of Cuban History: Meanings and Purpose of the Past," by Louis A. Pérez, Jr., and "The Economic Development of Latin America since Independence," by Luis Bértola and José Antonio Ocampo.
30. Title:Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Republics
Authors: Legvold, Robert.
Abstract:The article reviews several books including "Hard Diplomacy and Soft Coercion: Russia's Influence Abroad," by James Sherr, "Danubia: A Personal History of Habsburg Europe," by Simon Winder, and "Ethnonationalist Conflict in Postcommunist States: Varieties of Governance in Bulgaria, Macedonia, and Kosovo," by Maria Koinova.
31. Title:Middle East
Authors: Waterbury, John.
Abstract:The article reviews several books including "Unthinkable: Iran, the Bomb, and American Strategy," by Kenneth M. Pollack, "Roots of the Arab Spring: Contested Authority and Political Change in the Middle East," by Dafna Hochman Rand, and "Fountainhead of Jihad: The Haqqani Nexus, 1973-2012," by Vahid Brown and Don Rassler.
32. Title:Asia and Pacific
Authors:Nathan, Andrew J.; Economy, Elizabeth C.
Abstract:The article reviews several books including "An Uncertain Glory: India and Its Contradictions," by Jean Drèze and Amartya Sen, "Forgotten Ally: China's World War II, 1937-1945," by Rana Mitter, and "We Didn't Start the Fire: My Struggle for Democracy in Cambodia," by Sam Rainsy with David Whitehouse.
33. Title:Africa
Authors: Van De Walk, Nicolas.
Abstract:The article reviews several books including "To the Ends of the Earth: Pentecostalism and the Transformation of World Christianity," by Allen Heaton Anderson, "Integrating Africa: Decolonization's Legacies, Sovereignty, and the African Union," by Martin Welz, and "Political Parties in Africa: Ethnicity and Party Formation," by Sebastian Elischer.