Issue Number: 11
Date: October 2015
Western Australian beef commentary
Newsletter of the Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia
Prepared by Kate Pritchett and Kimbal Curtis
Partners
Summary
- The size of the Western Australian cattle herd has increased 5% year on year between 2012/13 and 2013/14 from 1.88 million head to 1.97 million head. This is reflected in the increase in the number of female cattle in the herd which has grown from around 1 million to 1.08 million head.
- During 2014/15 total turn off fell 6% when compared to 2013/14 from 720thousand head to 680thousand head however it is still higher than it has been since 2010/11.
- 425thousand cattle were slaughtered in Western Australia during 2014/15 which is an increase of 3% compared to the previous year. Australia wide there was an increase of 7% to 10.1million head
- A year on year decrease of 18% was reported for the number of cattle exported live from Western Australia in 2014/15, falling from 305thousand to 250thousand head. Our largest markets during 2014/15 were Indonesia and Israel.
- The proportion of beef exported from Western Australia has increased from 26% to 41% during the last four years. The largest markets for boxed beef were that of Japan followed by South Korea.
- During 2015 Western Australian cattle prices have remained very strong. All the major sale yard indicators were in the 97th-99th percentiles during September.
- Prices for feeder yearlings and heavy cows have been higher throughout 2015 (January to September) than they have been at any time during the preceding 3 years.
Contents
Current herd situation in Western Australia
Cattle turn-off and beef production
Cattle slaughter
Beef production
Exports by volume
Beef exports
Live exports
Exports by value
Beef and veal exports
Live exports
Market indicators
Insights and opportunities
Retail Prices
Indonesian Quotas
US Quotas
French bluetongue virus outbreak
Appendix
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Importantdisclaimer
The Chief Executive Officer of the Department of Agriculture and Food and the State of Western Australia accept no liability whatsoever by reason of negligence or otherwise arising from the use or release of this information or any part of it.
Copyright © Western Australian Agricultural Authority, 2014
Current herd situation in Western Australia
As seen in Figure 1 below, the Western Australian beef cattle herd increased 5% year on year compared to 2013/14 from 1.88 million head to 1.97 million head. Contributing to this reported increase is a reduction in the volume of cattle exported live and the withholding of female cattle from slaughter. This is the largest the herd has been since 2009/10 and may beindicative of growing confidence surrounding the industry as a result of strong prices.
Figure 1 Closing number of beef cattle and number of cows and heifers in the Western Australian herd and total turn-off (slaughter plus live export) by year. (Based on data from Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), analysed by the Department of Agriculture and Food, WA (DAFWA))
The diagram in the appendix of this document describes the avenues the producers used when disposing of cattle during the 2014/15 financial year. Domestic slaughter accounted for 62% of turn-off whilst 37% were exported live. A further 1% were moved interstate. Domestic consumption accounted for 59% of the beef produced, a significant decrease compared to 66% the year before. The remaining beef was exported to 30 destinations.
Cattle turn-off and beef production
There are two avenues available to producers in Western Australia in which to turn off cattle; that of live export or domestic slaughter. As seen in Figure 2, domestic slaughter is utilised more often than live export and is less volatile in nature, however in some parts of the state, particularly northern WA, live export is the more viable option. During 2014/15, a total of 425thousand head were slaughtered in WA continuing the increasing trend observed since 2011/12. Live export on the other hand reached 250thousand head during 2014/15 which was a decrease of 18% year on year.
Figure 2 WA cattle turn off (Based on data from ABS, analysed by DAFWA)
Cattle slaughter
Western Australian cattle slaughter has been steadily increasing since 2011/12 reaching 425thousand head in 2014/15 as seen in Figure 3. This represents a 3% increase year on year when compared to 2013/14.
A similar story is evident when analysing the slaughter data for the whole of Australia with even larger year on year increases. There has been an increase of 7% year on year from 9.5million head to 10.1million head for Australia as a whole. This is partly due to the continued sell down in the Eastern states, predominantly Queensland and New South Wales, due to ongoing drought conditions, strong prices and high demand from international markets.
Figure 3 Annual cattle slaughter for Australia (LHS) and Western Australia (RHS) (Based on data from ABS, analysed by DAFWA)
Historically a larger number of cows and heifers have been slaughtered in comparison to bulls, bullocks and steers in Western Australia however there has been a change in this trend over recent years. Since 2009/10 the number of female and male cattle slaughtered hasconverged as seen in Figure 4. Of the 414 thousand WA cattle slaughtered in 2014/15, there were equal numbers of males and females. This may be a sign of herd rebuilding as more females are retained for breeding purposes.
Figure 4 Western Australian slaughter by animal type (Based on data from ABS, analysed by DAFWA)
Beef production
The majority of beef produced in WAis consumed in the domestic market as opposed to being exported to overseas markets. Despite this the proportion of beef exported has increased markedly over the last two years from 26% in 2011/12 to 41% during 2014/15 (Figure 5). This left 59% of WA beef to be consumed by the domestic market. The reduction in domestic consumption may be due to consumers tightening their belts due to generally poorer economic conditions in WA, along with the increased cost associated with buying beef. There have been reports of protein substitution occurring; as beef becomes more expensive the consumer buys cheaper alternatives such as chicken or pork in place of beef.
Figure 5 Beef consumption by market (Based on data from ABS, analysed by DAFWA)
Exports by volume
Beef exports
Of the beef exported to overseas markets Japan is the largest market in volume terms. Over the last three years they have increased the volume of Western Australian beef they import substantially from 5million kg (CEQ) in 2011/12 to 10.4million kg (CEQ) in 2014/15 – an increase of 108%.
The USA which was our 4th largest market during 2014/15 also had a large increase in beef exports during 2014/15 compared to recent years. During 2014/15 there was an increase of 769% year on year from 651thousand kg (CEQ) to 5.66 million kg (CEQ) (Figure 6).
Figure 6 Quantity of Western Australian beef exported by destination (Based on data from ABS, analysed by DAFWA)
Live exports
As illustrated in Figure 7 the live cattle export trade is quite volatile from year to year. Whereas a low point was experienced during 2011/12 and 2012/13 following the suspension of trade to Indonesia and the subsequent implementation of the ESCAS protocol, 2013/14 was incredibly strong with an increase of 56% year on year. Unfortunately during 2014/15 there has been an 18% decrease in the number exported from 305thousand head to 250thousand head.During this period Queensland and Northern Territory exporters absorbed a larger share of the available trade.
Figure 7 Total number of cattle exported live from Western Australia (Based on data from ABS, analysed by DAFWA)
As seen below in Figure 8 Western Australia’s largest market for live export cattle is Indonesia. Despite a significant decrease in the number of cattle exported to Indonesia between 2013/14 and 2014/15, they remain Western Australia’s largest live cattle market. They are closely followed by Israel and new comer to the market Viet Nam.
Figure 8 Number of Western Australian cattle exported live by destination (Based on data from ABS, analysed by DAFWA)
Exports by value
Beef exports
As stated previously Japan is Western Australia’s largest market by volume, and it is also the largest market by value, taking $31.4million of Western Australian beef in 2014/15. This was followed by South Korea then the USA. Whereas the USA was the fourth largest export destination for Western Australian beef in volume terms it is the third largest destination in value terms meaning it takes higher value cuts than other markets. It had a meteoric year on year increase in export value of 1095% (Figure 9).
Figure 9 Value (A$ million, FOB) of beef exports by year and destination (Based on data from ABS, analysed by DAFWA).
Live exports
As expected the value of live exports, in a similar fashion to the volume, has been quite volatile over the last 10 years. Whereas there has been a year on year decrease of 10% in 2014/15 to $213 million, this followed an 80% increase during 2013/14. It is also well above the 10 year average of $189.5 million represented by the orange (horizontal) line in Figure 10.
Figure 10 Total value (A$ million, FOB) of live cattle exports from Western Australia (Based on data from ABS, analysed by DAFWA)
During 2014/15 Western Australia exported live cattle to over 10 destinations. The most lucrative destination for live cattle in both volume and value terms was Indonesia as seen below in Figure 11. The second largest destination in value terms was Israel followed by Viet Nam. Viet Nam has only been active in this market for the past three years and has been increasing substantially each year. During 2014/15 the value of live cattle exported to Viet Nam increased by 312% year-on-year.
Figure 11 Value (A$ million, FOB) of cattle exported live from Western Australia by destination (Based on data from ABS, analysed by DAFWA).
Market indicators
Western Australian cattle prices have been relatively strong so far during 2015. This may be in part due to increasing international demand outstripping supply, but also aligns with the strong prices reported in eastern Australia. As illustrated in Table 1 below the major West Australian cattle indicators have been above the 95th percentile during September 2015, other than feeder vealers which didn’t report any sales during September.
Table 1The September 2015 average and percentile, plus the first and third quartile values for the main cattle industry indicators for WA (Based on data from National Livestock Reporting Service (NLRS), analysed by DAFWA)
September 2015 average / Percentile / 1st quartile / 3rd quartileFeeder vealers / N/A / N/A / 159 / 206
Feeder yearling / 299 / 99 / 150 / 203
Heavy yearling / 291 / 99 / 146 / 203
Pastoral cows / 191 / 99 / 85 / 130
Heavy cows / 214 / 97 / 107 / 149
Light bulls / 248 / 97 / 136 / 173
Prices for feeder yearling cattle in WA have been stronger in 2015 than any of the past three years. This has been the case for each month to date in 2015 as seen in Figure 12. In January of 2015 the feeder yearling price was 224 cents/kg which then rose to 298 cents/kg in June before backing off slightly in July, but powered ahead to 299 cent/kg in September. This is 87 cents kg higher than at the same time during 2014.
Figure 12 Trend in Western Australian feeder yearling saleyard indicator (cents/kg liveweight) (Based on data from MLA/NLRS, analysed by DAFWA)
The sale yard indicator for heavy cows in Western Australia during 2015 has also been very strong, remaining higher than it has been over the last three years (Figure 13). In January of 2015 the price for heavy cows was 213 cents/kg rising to 232 cents/kg in February. It then fell to 201cents/kg in June before climbing to 214 cents/kg in September 2015. Whilst the Septemberprice is lower than earlier in the year it is still 36 cents higher than at the same time during 2014.
Figure 13 Trend in the Western Australian heavy cow sale yard indicator (cents/kg liveweight) (Based on data from MLA/NLRS, analysed by DAFWA)
Insights and opportunities
Retail Prices
Between March 2000 and September 2014 there has been a relatively strong increase in retail prices for the majority of meats within Australia (Figure 14). Beef has historically received the highest retail price closely followed by bacon and ham.
Between March 2000 and September 2014 the price of beef rose 56% from $10.47/kg to $16.33/kg. Whereas this is good news for producers and retailers it is less rosy for consumers. If prices continue to rise, it may lead to protein substitution where consumers decide to purchase other less expensive meats such as chicken rather than buying beef.
Figure 14 Australian retail meat prices (c/kg) by meat type (Based on data from MLA, analysed by DAFWA)
Indonesian Quotas
As seen in Figure 8 the largest live export market for Western Australian cattle is that of Indonesia. This market has been relatively volatile in recent years following the suspension of the live trade by the Federal government in 2011, the following implementation of ESCAS and the restrictions brought on by the size and timing of quotas issued by Indonesia.
Currently the live cattle trade with Indonesia is controlled by quarterly quotas issued to importers.
During the second quarter of 2015 (April to June) a total quota of 250000 cattle was issued to importers.
The live cattle trade was surprised and dismayed when the Indonesian government slashed the 3rd quarter (July to September)cattle quota to 50000 cattle in order to increase Indonesia’sself-sufficiency and food security.
This took both Indonesian importers and Australian cattle producers by surprise as they were expecting approximately 200000 cattle permits.
The reduction in cattle permits subsequently led to an expectation of reduced beef supplies in Indonesia and hence a sharp spike in retail beef prices. In order to combat rising prices thegovernment issued permits for a further 50000 slaughter ready cattle (as opposed to feeder cattle) however there are reports these were not successfully filled (Farm Weekly).
At the beginning of the 4th quarter (October to December) the Indonesian government made a welcome announcement of an allocation of 200000 cattle permits for the final quarter (Farm Weekly).
However due to the slow release of 4th quarter permits shipping capacity is tight as it has already been contracted to other markets and Indonesian feedlots are short of cattle. This may further drive prices higher in Indonesia.
Currently Australia is the only supplier of live cattle to Indonesia. The Indonesian government is reported to be seeking to reduce its dependency on Australian cattle. In order to do this, media reports indicate they are aiming to open up the market to India and the Philippines (despite their FMD status) and possibly New Zealand. This may help resolve their price hikes and the beef shortages going into next year (Farm Weekly).
In 2016 Ramadan in Indonesia commences in early June, meaning they need to fill beef stocks during the 4th quarter in 2015 and the 1st quarter 2016. This may prove difficult leaving them short during the important Ramadan period (Farm Weekly).
A large quota during this time of year also poses challenges to the Australian industry. Live cattle to Indonesia are predominantly sourced from Northern Australia. The 4th quarter (October to December) occurs during the end of the dry season where feed availability may be limited and cattle are generally lighter leading to less cattle being available that are ready for sale. This is then followed by the wet season during the 1st quarter when mustering all but ceases making sourcing adequate numbers of cattle difficult.
Recently Federal Trade and Investment Minister Andrew Robb visited his counterpart in Indonesia to discussan annual quota system. This would improve trade stability and allow better forward planning at all sections of the supply chain (Farm Weekly).
US Quotas
The USA is one of Australia’s largest beef markets and had grown remarkably in recent years. It was Australia’s largest market in both value and volume terms during 2014/15 though Western Australia’s 3rd largest market by value and 4thby volume.
Under the 1995 Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture and the 2005 USA- Australia Free Trade agreement, Australia can export beef tariff free to the USA as long as it remains below a certain quota. During 2015 that quota is 418214 tonnes (Department of Agriculture and Water Resources).
As of July 2015 Australia had already exported 267555 tonnes (shipped weight) to the USA (ABS exports) which is 64% of the quota.
When Australia reaches 85% of the quota, which is 355482 tonnes, prior to October an allocation system is triggered so as to manage exports. Under this system the remaining 15% is allocated according to exporter’s prior records of shipments. This quota is tradeable so exporters without any quota can buy some off those that have quota available (The Land).
Once the quota is reached Australian beef exported to the USA will be subject to a 21.12% tariff for the remainder of 2015 (ABC).
Quota usage exceeded 85% on the 31st August 2015 (Department of Agriculture and Water Resources).
French bluetongue virus outbreak
There has been another outbreak of the Bluetongue virus in France this year. It has been discovered on a farm in central France at Les Brulards. Authorities have imposed a 150 km protection zone which contains 4.6million cattle, 700000 sheep and 160000 goats.
Figure 15 Area of latest Bluetongue infection in France (Source: The Cattle Site)
The virus can be spread by the movement of infected stock or through the movement of Culicoidesmidges also known as aerial plankton.
So far it is thought that there are inadequate supplies of vaccine for the disease raising concerns that the disease could spread throughout Europe.
The French strain is generally thought to be serotype 8 which is a very aggressive strain. It caused large losses especially to the sheep industry in 2006 to 2008. Approximately 25% of sheep and 1% of cattle were killed by the strain between 2006 and 2008. Whilst fatalities in cattle are much lower the impacts are still disastrous with movement restrictions, loss of trade, reduced milk yield, decreased reproductive performance, still born calves and costs associated with disease control and surveillance.