Sector and Program Area Long Term Research Roadmaps

Sector and Program Area Long Term Research Roadmaps

Residential

As indicated in the California Energy Efficiency Strategy Plan, in 2008, energy demand for California’s 12.6 million households represent 32% of total state electricity consumption and 36% of its total natural gas consumption. Approximately one-third of all households reside in multi-family structures and the other two-thirds of households live in single family homes. The concentration of renters as compared to homeowners is about 42% and 58%, respectively. Below is a profile of the electricity and nature gas usage profile from the California Energy Efficiency Strategy Plan (January 2011 update).

Figure 4. Profile of Electricity and Nature Gas Usage

The California Energy Efficiency Strategy Plan establishes the following goals:

1. New construction will reach “zero net energy” (ZNE) performance (including clean, onsite distributed generation) for all new single and multi-family homes by 2020.
2. Home buyers, owners and renovators will implement a whole house approach to energy consumption that will guide their purchase and use of existing and new homes, home equipment, household appliances, and lighting and plug load amenities.
3. Plug loads will be managed by developing consumer electronics and appliances that use less energy and provide tools to enable customers to understand and manage their energy demand.
4. The residential lighting industry will undergo substantial transformation through the deployment of high-efficiency and high-performance lighting technologies, supported by the state and national codes.

These goals above are designed into the IOUs portfolio of residential programs for the 2013-2014 transition period.

Residential Portfolio of Programs for 2013-2014

For the 2013-2014 Program Cycle, the residential portfolio of programs has been substantially reorganized into the following structure:

1. Whole Home Programs – a market transformation program
2. Whole House - Energy Upgrade California (EUC) – Basic/Advanced/Flex Path
3. Multifamily - Energy Upgrade California (EUC)
4. Moderate Income Direct Install (MIDI) (SCE-Only)

1. Multifamily Programs
2. Multifamily Energy Efficiency Rebate Program (MFEER)
3. Comprehensive Manufactured Homes (CMHP, 3P program, SCE Only)
4. Direct Install for Manufactured and Mobile Homes Program (DIMMHP, 3P program, PG&E Only)
5. Home Energy Advisor Program
6. Home Energy Advisor Survey (HEA) & Universal Audit Tool (UAT)
7. Comparative Energy Usage Report
8. Home Buyer Guide (aka On-line Buyer Guide)
9. Plug Load & Appliance Program (PLA) – a market transformation program
10. Home Energy Efficiency Rebate Program (HEER/downstream & midstream),
11. Appliance Recycling Program (ARP/downstream)
12. Residential New Construction Program- a market transformation program
13. Residential HVAC Program – a market transformation program
14. Residential Third Party Program

Table 4. 2013-2014 Residential Portfolio Savings and Budget Summary

For the purpose of this long-term residential research roadmap, we will set aside the Residential HVAC and Residential Third Party Programs. Evaluation of HVAC and Third Party activities will be managed by the other PCGs. This residential long term study roadmap is organized into two parts:

Part-1: Residential Retrofit Programs and Study Area

Part-2: Residential New Construction Program and Study Area

Background – Part-1: Residential Retrofit Programs & Study Area

Sector or Program Area Description

The 2013-2014 Statewide Residential Program Portfolio is 17% of the total IOUs’ statewide EE program portfolio budget. It is the second largest program budget in aggregate next to the statewide Commercial Program Portfolio. Within the Residential Program Portfolio, each IOU has opted to implement different program strategies to meet their energy savings goals.

Each IOU is asked to provide a broad scope and array of programs to serve a multitude of customer wants and needs, including lower income homeowners (i.e., those not meeting the low-income qualification requirements). In addition, several residential retrofit programs are identified as market transformation programs (i.e., Energy Upgrade California and Plug Load and Appliance Programs).

These programs are generally designed to target two distinct groups of customer segments:

1. Homeowners & renters,

1. Apartment owners/managers.

The residential portfolio of programs is also designed to serve the needs of small business entities that behave like homeowners and/or renters in terms of their purchase behavior and/or energy usage profile.

The program theories are often expressed to overcome the following market barriers commonly faced across the residential energy efficiency sector:

Lack of energy efficiency information available to and understood by consumers and contractors;

Lack of awareness of specific measures, programs and/or practices available for consumers and contractors;

Availability of energy efficiency products for retailers and contractors;

Split incentive challenges in motivation for property owners versus renters;

Lack of funds or financing options;

Lack of quantity and quality of skilled contractors and installation workforce.

For these programs to be successful it is important for all the participating and non-participating market actors to be aware and knowledgeable about the specific program - thus motivating the desired purchase decisions and best quality installation efforts.

Programs included in the Research Scope

As indicated above, the residential program portfolio has changed substantially for 2013-2014. Several programs have been consolidated into this sector to simplify program design and administration and to allow for synergy savings and cost effectiveness.

1. Whole Home Programs – a market transformation program
2. Multifamily Programs
3. Home Energy Advisor Program
4. Plug Load & Appliance Program (PLA) – a market transformation program

Table 5. 2013-2014 Residential Retrofit Programs Savings and Budget Summary (Without HVAC, New Construction & Res. Third Party Programs)

These residential programs serve residential single family and multi-family customers energy efficiency purchase needs, comprehensive retrofit needs, and behavior/information needs.

Uncertainties and Challenges to Successful Implementation

The residential retrofit programs face the following uncertainties:

In 2013-2014, two of the residential sub-programs are identified as “market transformation programs”: Plug Load and Appliance and Whole House programs. To support this directive, the preliminary process for managing market transformation has been identified in the program implementation plan. Furthermore, Decision 12-05-015 has identified the need to engage an additional market transformation consultant to help direction for this process for the various stakeholders.

Below is a list of uncertainties facing the residential program (i.e., retrofit only):

1. Support for progress tracking and planning efforts for residential retrofits markets and deep energy reduction strategic planning goals,
2. Determine the effectiveness of new program designs and accuracy of associated energy impacts (i.e., EUC Whole House and EUC-MF/MIDI, Comparative Energy Usage, Online Audit Tools, etc.),
3. Support efforts to update work-papers to ensure accuracy of energy savings claims,
4. Collect data to support innovation activities,
5. Support required for WE&T residential contractor data and sector strategy needs (i.e., EUC Whole House and MF)
6. Uncertainty about double-counting deductions from behavior program savings

Much like the lighting studies, a wide range of residential studies are typically authorized by both ED and IOUs to cover Low-income/ESAP, Demand Reduction, Marketing Education and Outreach programs. A critical synthesis may be required to summarize key data such as customer awareness and attitudes across these study areas.

The residential retrofit study roadmap is designed to address these uncertainties and data needs to support program designers, policy makers, key stakeholders and other entities.

1.1.1.Ex Ante Coordination

Ex ante processes (including DEER updates, Uncertain Measures List updates, work papers review, and custom projects review) incorporate data and results from the latest EM&V studies. The ex ante values that are relevant to this sector are highlighted in this section, they may also be included in other relevant chapters.

Summary of DEER 2016 Updates:

• Clothes washers updated to reflect new rating systems
• Appliance (refrigerators and freezers) updated to reflect that a large fraction of the program collected units had little or no market value and thus have no gross savings. The result of this revision was a reduction in gross savings, but an increase in NTG compared to previous DEER versions.

Summary of 2015 Uncertain Measure Updates:

To assess what measures to move off and/or add onto the Uncertain Measures List requires looking ahead to IOU portfolios and analysis of ex ante and ex post teams. The current 2015 Uncertain Measures List ( Attachment 3) contains the following items for this sector and shall be prioritized in the evaluation studies.

The 2015 Uncertain Measure list for residential measures other than lighting remain unchanged.

2015 Uncertain Measures

Ex ante staff leads and ex post staff leads will coordinate processes, studies, and timelines to better align the flow of information between ex ante and ex post projects. Ex post evaluation studies provide data and results for ex ante updates. Planning for ex ante updates in the future will also require evaluation planning and input. Evaluation studies will need to budget time and schedule to provide input into ex-ante processes, such as DEER and the uncertain measure list. Currently, ex ante funding is budgeted under the overall ex ante contract. More information about the budget is provided in the Ex Ante Review section of this document.

Next planned DEER Update

The DEER team is currently in the planning stages for 2017 updates. The scope of these updates is still under development

Program Administrators’ Planned Work paper Submissions

Program Administrators submit planned work papers for the upcoming portfolio cycle to Commission staff. These work papers often use DEER data and/or methodology to add technologies that are not in DEER to the energy efficiency portfolio.

2013-2014 EM&V Studies

Key Research Questions to Be Addressed in 2013-2014 EM&V

In this section, we describe the planned 2013-14 studies for this roadmap as well as studies authorized elsewhere. Below, please find a list of the residential research studies that addressed specific residential retrofit information needs. In addition to this list of studies, the following residential studies were completed for 2015 in the Low-Income/ESAP proceedings:

ESA Program Impact Evaluation Study

LI Multi-family Segmentation Study, ECD

ESA Program Energy Education Study

Low Income Needs Assessment

These studies above are funded by a different CPUC proceeding and will be managed by the Low-Income ESAP study team. As indicated earlier, the need for critical synthesis of all residential information will be increasingly critical so a consistent set of overarching findings and recommendations will be possible.

Table 6. 2013-2014 Residential Retrofit Programs EM&V Research Questions Summary