Name: ______

Date: ______

DEMOGRAPHICS LAB

Directions – Go to The Habitable Planet’s website and read the “Overview”

The Demographic Transition: Step 1

Open the simulator and record the data for the first three columns below for each country. Use your knowledge of the demographic transition model to identify which stage (Pre-Industrial, Transitional, Industrial, or Post-Industrial) each country is in. Then, run the simulator (by hitting “Run”) and record the Population in 2050 (Simulation).

Country / Birth Rate 2005 / Death Rate 2005 / Population in 2005 / Stage in Demographic Transition in 2005 / Population in 2050 (Simulation)
USA
China
Egypt
India
Italy
Mexico
Nigeria

1.  How do living conditions differ between the country furthest along in the demographic transition compared to the country earliest in the transition? How would living conditions in these two countries affect both birth and death rates?

2.  Identify three social factors that contribute to lower birth rates in the countries farther along. How might these social conditions be encouraged in less developed countries?

The Demographic Transition: Step 2

Compare the pyramid structures from 2005 for each country with the simulated pyramids from 2050.

Country / Shape of Pyramid in 2005 / Shape of Pyramid in 2050 (Simulation)
USA
China
Egypt
India
Italy
Mexico
Nigeria

4.  How do the shapes of the population pyramids differ between the most developed and the least developed countries?

5.  Those in the population who are in the "prime of life" (roughly aged 20-60, depending on local conditions), support the populations younger and older than themselves. How might this impact the quality of life in countries with rapid growth? Negative growth?

6.  Countries that are currently "late" in the demographic transition (i.e., Industrial or Post-Industrial) generally began the transition earlier than other countries or, as with China, pursued the transition more aggressively. The USA is far along in the transition. Which stage do you suppose it was in 100 years ago? What about China 100 years ago?

Population Momentum: Step 1

Select Nigeria from the country pull-down menu. Run the simulator with the default settings to 2050, and record the results below. Reset the simulator. Predict what will change when the average age of childbearing women is increased by 5 years (fewer teenage pregnancies) and record your prediction. Now, increase the average age of childbearing women by 5 years and run the simulator. Reset the simulator. Now, increase the average age of childbearing women by 15 years and run the simulator. Reset the simulator. Now, decrease the average age by 5 years below the default setting and run the simulator.

Nigeria / Default / Prediction / + 5 years / +15 years / -5 years
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Population Growth
Total Population

6.  How does an increase or decrease in the average childbearing age change the population structure? Why do developed countries tend to have older childbearing women than developing countries?

7.  Reset the settings. Sketch Nigeria’s default population age structure. Now, change Nigeria’s birth rates and death rates to that of the USA. Run the simulator for 150 years (to the year 2150). Sketch Nigeria’s new population age structure. How and why does the shape change?

Population Momentum: Step 2

Select Italy from the country pull-down menu. Perform the same simulations as in Step 1 (with Nigeria).

Italy / Default / Prediction / + 5 years / +15 years / -5 years
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Population Growth
Total Population

8.  Did the pattern of population change match your prediction? If not, why not?

9.  Compare the final population pyramid for Italy to the final one you sketched for Nigeria (in #7). How do they compare, and why are they similar or different?

10.  Many Western European countries are giving monetary incentives to employees who have multiple children. Why would they do this? How would a baby boom change Italy's demographics?