Open Source Intelligence (OSINT)
Draft Chapter for Strategic Intelligence
Open Source Intelligence (OSINT)
Robert David Steele
PROPOSED OUTLINE
Executive Summary
Strategic Value of OSINT: will change who decides what, when, where, and how. OSINT will change strategic outcomes over time, and is the transformational agent for intelligence reform, electoral reform, governance reform, and—consequently—national security & prosperity reform—grand strategy.
History of strategic intelligence—secret war actually low strategy—strategic analysis as secret strategy but not grand strategy—Smart Nation as open high long-term grand strategy, collective intelligence, then place in context of INFORMATION OPERATIONS (OSINT as reality, JIOC tools, SC/PD as message)
Requirements not now long term and lacking in strategic generalizations, reality-based investments, and inter-agency strategic coherence. OSINT changes all of that. No strategic culture, no domestic policy on education as a source of national power, including internationalization of education Bottom line: pathological mindsets and “who plays” is dysfunctional under secret executive based model
Collection, covert tail, high tech waste, ignored OSINT and deep looks [cite Ada Bozeman]. Discuss what OSINT can do for strategic collection priorities
Processing, no proper investment in TPED, sense-making, no standards for sharing, ignored coalition and private sector contributions to “all source” sense-making. [cite Paul Strassman, NIMA Report, DSB]
Discuss what OSINT can do for strategic sense-making with machine translation, visualization, analysis
Analysis, security crushed expertise, technical collection substitute for advanced thinking, policy could ignore secret intelligence [cite Treverton, competing influences, Cleveland on higher education, Gilad on policy leadership myopia and mis-information] Politicization of analysis, between Exec and Congress, between Exec and people, between USA and world. Discuss what OSINT can do for strategic analysis that is shareable, accountable, and impactful.
Covert Action, lacks deep intelligence in sense of understanding of circumstances or consequences, constitutes “virtual colonialism” that inspires Bin Laden and Hugo Chavez, comes with long-term costs that are simply not understood nor calculated—loss of moral high group, financial costs, practical costs
Counterintelligence totally missing in action—none on loss of secrets, loss of innovative technologies, loss of strategic competitiveness. Discuss OSINT and “overt action” as a more cost-effective alternative, one consistent with peacekeeping intelligence and information peacekeeping.
Accountability, Civil Liberties, and Oversight. Discuss OSINT as a means of achieving retrospective accountability, need for three truth commissions: A. Secret Sores; B. Federal treason against the public (e.g. Peak Oil cover-up by US Senate and White House in 1974-1979); and C. USA versus World. Discuss need for transformation of Congressional intelligence and information operations (I2O) oversight, need for subcommittee on I2O in each jurisdiction, special joint committee. Discuss Open Source Agency that integrates OSC, FBIS, USIA, BBG and constitute public intelligence baseline for lasting accountability, protection of civil liberties, and public oversight of public spending and policy
Strategic Warning. What OSINT can do for long-term trends and catastrophic events. [cite Herman]
Strategic Sharing. What OSINT can do to lower the cost and raise the benefits of global and national governance.
Emerging Prospects. Internet and sense-making, collective (public) intelligence, public sustained real time accountability at all levels of governance, sensible cost-effective budgets and actions, end to scarcity and waste and fraud.
What Can Be Known. Use 600+ books reviewed at Amazon and the 15 Amazon lists as basis for SHORT section on what can be known about information, intelligence, emerging threats, blow back and dissent, strategy and inter-agency structure, pathological aspects of domestic politics in relation to long term grand strategy and security.
OSINT & the Millennium. Address what OSINT can do for each of the Millennium challenges, top seven threats, long-term stabilization and reconstruction. Footnote Aspin-Brown and Burundi Exercise.
ReferencesAbbreviations
Version 1.0 dated 18 March 2006