METR 104: Worksheet: Forecasting Tactic
Our Dynamic Weather for Tomorrow’s 18Z Temperature
Step-by-Step Tactics:
(1) Estimate the increase in temperature from the low to 18Z expressed as a fraction (or percentage) of the daily temperature range.
(a) Using the most recent meteogram that record’s the day’s high temperature:
(i) Increase in temperature
from the low to 18Z = 18Z Temp ( ______°F) – Low ( ______°F) = _____°F
(ii) Daily Temperature Range = High ( ______°F) – Low ( ______°F) = _____°F
(iii) Increase in temperature by 18Z
expressed as a fraction (or %)
of the daily temperature rang = (i) ÷ (ii) [or 100% × (i) ÷ (ii)] = ______
(b) Repeat steps (a)(i) through (a)(iii) for the next-most recent meteogram:
(i) Increase in temperature
from the low to 18Z = 18Z Temp ( ______°F) – Low ( ______°F) = _____°F
(ii) Daily Temperature Range = High ( ______°F) – Low ( ______°F) = _____°F
(iii) Increase in temperature by 18Z
expressed as a fraction (or %)
of the daily temperature range = (i) ÷ (ii) [or 100% × (i) ÷ (ii)] = ______
(c) Average fractional (or %) temperature increase = [(a)(iii) + (b)(iii)] ÷ 2 =
(2) Calculate tomorrow’s forecast daily temperature range.
Using tomorrow’s NWS Point forecast for your forecast location:
(a) Forecast daily temperature range
= Forecast high ( ______°F) – Forecast low ( ______°F) =
(3) Estimate tomorrow’s increase in temperature from the low to 18Z:
(a) Tomorrow’s forecast temperature increase by 18Z = (1)(c) × (2)(a) =
(4) Estimate tomorrow’s 18Z temperature:
Tomorrow’s 18Z temperature forecast
= Forecast low ( ______°F) + (3)(a) ( ______°F) =
Resources Needed:
(1) Meteograms for the last two days for your forecast location
§ From the METR 104 class Web home page, in the “Forecasting Assignment” section, click on the link to maps and images to prepare forecasts for the current forecast location
§ Click on the link to “Surface Analyses”
§ In the section called “Local Source”, click on the links to “Latest Meteogram” and/or “Yesterday’s Meteogram”.
(2) Tomorrow’s National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for your forecast location.
§ On the same page as the links to recent meteograms above, in the section called “Forecasts, Climate Data, etc.”, under “National Weather Service (NWS)”, click on the link to “Point Forecast for [your forecast location]”.