GSBA-516: Essentials of Data Analysis and Modeling

GSBA-516: Essentials of Data Analysis and Modeling

GSBA-516: Essentials of Data Analysis and Modeling

Term One 2016-2017

Instructor: / Phil Rogers
Office: / Bridge Hall 400E
Office Hours: / From 8/4 to 8/18: Tuesday/Thursday 3:00 – 4:00
From 8/23 to 9/1: Tuesday/Thursday 1:00 – 2:00
Phone: / (713) 705-7979
Email: /
COURSE DESCRIPTION

This course will enable you to become a power user of Excel and will show you how to build models ofunstructured business problems so you can make better decisions and gain insight into the impact various factors have on those decisions. The vehicle used for developing such models is the familiar spreadsheet. You will learn the creative process of constructing and using spreadsheet models of business problems, specifically how to design, build and test spreadsheets and workbooks, and how to improve the efficiency and effectiveness with which they are used. Topics are explored by learning how to solve a wide variety of business problems in finance, marketing, operations and engineering, often using tools and techniques from the field of management science that are built-in to Excel. With the knowledge acquired in this course, you will provide your employer with a competitive advantage and will yourself enjoy a competitive advantage over your peers who lack these skills.

COURSE OBJECTIVES

By successfully completing this course, you will be able to:

  • Analyze unstructured business situations
  • Develop models of those situations
  • Explore alternative solutions through formalized approaches
  • Do sensitivity analysis to gain insight into why the chosen solution makes business sense.

You will be better able to:

  • Evaluate and prioritize alternatives
  • Allocate resources
  • Justify and defend decisions.

COURSE MATERIALS

ExcelNow! tutorial available from using coupon code Trojan

Microsoft Excel 2013: Data Analysis and BusinessModeling by Wayne Winston ISBN 978-0-7356-6913-0

COMPUTERS AND SOFTWARE

You are required to have access to Excel 2016 running under Windows either on your own Mac or PC or via the Marshall Virtual Lab that allows Marshall studentsto use a virtual desktop in the Marshall private cloud. If you have a Mac and want to run Excel 2016 under Windows on your own laptop, you will need to check if you have enough memory to run Windows through a Windows emulator such as Boot Camp or Parallels. If you want the software on your own computer, youcan take advantage of the free version of Windows and Office 365provided by USC.

Youare welcome to use your computers in class as long the devices are used for the specific problem the professor is working on. They are not to be used for any other purpose.

GRADING

1.Class Participation (10%). The default grade for class participation will be 85. A student getting this grade will be engaged in class discussions, which means he/she will answer questions if called upon, if not correctly, then at least in a way that shows he/she was paying attention and understands the question, and will raise relevant questions and comments from time to time. Higher grades will be assigned to students who are more actively engaged in the class discussion; lower grades will be assigned to students who don’t seem to be fully engaged in the class discussion, for example,having little or nothing to say when called upon.

2.Homework (10%). Homework will be assigned at the end of each class. It is expected that you will work on the assigned problems by the assigned due dates. Working in groups is perfectly acceptable. Your performance on class participation, the two quizzes and the final exam will clearly be impacted by how much effort you have put into the homework. Homework grades will be more a reflection of effort put in than whether or not the correct answer has been provided.

3.Quizzes (20%). There will be twoquizzes, worth 10% each. The quizzes will take place in class on Tuesday, August 16th and Friday, August 26th. No make-ups of the quizzes will be given. You will receive a grade of zero for a missed quiz unless you have a written excuse from your doctor or the University.

4.Final Exam (60%). The final exam will be the morning of Tuesday, September 6th. No make-ups of the final exam will be given. You will receive a grade of zero for a missed final exam unless you have a written excuse from your doctor or the University.

Final grades represent how you perform in the class relative to other students. The rank of your weighted average of class participation, homework, quizzes and final exam will be compared to others in the class and used to determine your grade. Historically, the average grade for this class is about a 3.3.

ACADEMIC INTEGRITY

USC seeks to maintain an optimal learning environment. General principles of academic honesty includethe concept of respect for the intellectual property of others, the expectation that individual work will besubmitted unless otherwise allowed by an instructor, and the obligations both to protect one’s ownacademic work from misuse by others as well as to avoid using another’s work as one’s own. All studentsare expected to understand and abide by these principles. SCampus, the StudentGuidebook, ( or contains the University Student Conduct

Code (see University Governance, Section 11.00), while the recommended sanctions are located in

Appendix A.

Students will be referred to the Office of Student Judicial Affairs and Community Standards for furtherreview, should there be any suspicion of academic dishonesty. The Review process can be found at: Failure to adhere to the academic conduct standards set forth by these guidelines and our programs will not be tolerated by the USC Marshall community and can lead to dismissal.

No audio or video recording is permitted.

STATEMENT OF ACADEMIC CONDUCT AND SUPPORT SYSTEMS

Academic Conduct

Plagiarism – presenting someone else’s ideas as your own, either verbatim or recast in your own words – is a serious academic offense with serious consequences. Please familiarize yourself with the discussion of plagiarism in SCampusin Section 11, Behavior Violating University Standards Other forms of academic dishonesty are equally unacceptable. See additional information in SCampusand university policies on scientific misconduct,

Discrimination, sexual assault, and harassment are not tolerated by the university. You are encouraged to report any incidents to the Office of Equity and Diversity or to the Department of Public Safety This is important for the safety whole USC community. Another member of the university community – such as a friend, classmate, advisor, or faculty member – can help initiate the report, or can initiate the report on behalf of another person. The Center for Women and Men provides 24/7 confidential support, and the sexual assault resource center webpage describes reporting options and other resources.

Support Systems

A number of USC’s schools provide support for students who need help with scholarly writing. Check with your advisor or program staff to find out more. Students whose primary language is not English should check with the American Language Institute which sponsors courses and workshops specifically for international graduate students. The Office of Disability Services and Programs certification for students with disabilities and helps arrange the relevant accommodations. If an officially declared emergency makes travel to campus infeasible, USC Emergency Information will provide safety and other updates, including ways in which instruction will be continued by means of Blackboard, teleconferencing, and other technology.

Week / Lecture / Date / Topics / Textbook Chapters / Quiz and Final Exam Dates
1 / 1 / 8/04/2016 / Estimating the relationship between price and demand using curve fitting; Modeling exponential growth of a company’s revenue over time / 3, 4, 53, 54
2 / 2 / 8/08/2016 / Determining the best price to submit in a bidding contest where low bid wins / 16, 23
3 / 8/09/2016 / Summarizing data, for example monthly sales or monthly stock returns, by using descriptive statistics and histograms / 42, 41
4 / 8/11/2016 / Correlation: Evaluating how variables are related illustrated by looking at how stock returns relate to market returns; Regression toward the mean / 56
3 / 5 / 8/16/2016 / Incorporating uncertainty in business models; Analyzing problems of consumer preference, quality control, airline overbooking and election forecasting / 66, 67 / Quiz 1
6 / 8/18/2016 / Analyzing problems involving the number of or time between random events such as arrivals at a bank, hits on a Web site, catastrophic fires and explosions, or births at a hospital; Understanding the importance of and broad applicability of the normal probability distribution and the central limit theorem / 68, 69
4 / 7 / 8/23/2016 / Understanding joint, marginal and conditional probability distributions; Using empirical observations to update prior beliefs using Bayes’ theorem / Hand outs
8 / 8/25/2016 / Using simulation in the decision-making process: an overview and examples of applications / 73
9 / 8/26/2016 / Using simulation – Retirement planning, bidding on a contract, airline overbooking / 74 / Quiz 2
5 / 10 / 8/30/2016 / Using simulation – Options on S&P futures, presidential election / 75
11 / 9/01/2016 / Using Excel’s Solver to optimize a variety of business problems in areas such as product mix, workforce scheduling, transportation or distribution, capital budgeting, financial planning, warehouse location, pricing, etc. / 28 - 37
12 / 9/02/2016 / Using Solver (more applications)
6 / 9/06/2016 / Final Exam / Final: 9/06 8:00 AM
PROFESSOR’S BIO

Philip D. Rogers received a B.S. in Mathematics from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and both an M.S. and Ph.D. in Operations Research from the University of California at Berkeley, with minors in Statistics and Mathematical Economics. Following a 33-year career at Exxon Corporation, Dr. Rogers joined the University of Houston in 2003 where he taught courses in statistics, business modeling and decision making and was awarded a university-wide teaching excellence award in 2011. From January of 2014 to May of 2015, he taught business modeling and optimization at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University. He now teaches at the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California.
During his years with Exxon, Dr. Rogers developed many sophisticated mathematical models that were used to optimize a wide variety of the Corporation's business operations. Examples include competitive bidding strategies, scheduling of airport refueling operations, short-term borrowing strategies, optimization of worldwide product manufacturing and distribution, and the structure of catastrophic loss insurance policies.
As Manager of Operations Research for Exxon's affiliate in Australia, Dr. Rogers built the country's preeminent Operations Research group. In addition to multi-year assignments in London and Brussels, he served as Coordinator of all of Exxon's worldwide Operations Research activities. In that capacity, he was responsible for the allocation of a large R&D budget, for the development of Exxon's expert systems program, and for spreading throughout the Corporation the use of analytical techniques for production scheduling and for handling problems with multiple criteria.
Dr. Rogers also managed Treasury operations at Exxon's corporate headquarters and held several managerial positions in Information Systems in various Exxon locations.
Dr. Rogers has had varied consulting assignments with numerous client companies and has developed proprietary trading and options models. His personal interests include skiing, squash, tennis and the movies.

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