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APPENDICES
Appendix A. Tree Species in This Study and Their Change in Geographic Mean Center (∆MC; distance [km] from current to year 2100 mean center at the eastern U.S. scale). Iverson and others (2008b) modeled habitat space with high reliability, except where noted.∆MC values reported for ensemble low and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.
Latin name / Common name / ∆MC (ensemble low emissions) / ∆MC (ensemble high emissions)Abiesbalsamea / Balsam fir / 347.1 / 564.3
Acer pensylvanicum / Striped maple / 206.2 / 432.8
Acer rubrum / Red maple / 106.7 / 221.7
Acer saccharinum / Silver maple / 185.9 / 223.5
Acer saccharum / Sugar maple / 188.4 / 328.8
Acer spicatum / Mountain maple / 200.3 / 447.6
Betulaalleghaniensis / Yellow birch / 197.1 / 416.7
Caryaglabra / Pignut hickory / 194.3 / 289.9
aCaryaovata / Shagbark hickory / 238.7 / 338.7
Caryatexana / Black hickory / 333.7 / 507.0
Caryatomentosa / Mockernut hickory / 193.9 / 307.7
Fagusgrandifolia / American beech / 177.2 / 305.9
Fraxinusamericana / White ash / 125.8 / 197.6
Liquidambar styraciflua / Sweetgum / 201.5 / 375.9
Liriodendron tulipifera / Tulip poplar / 204.9 / 288.2
Picearubens / Red spruce / 230.9 / 408.7
Pinusechinata / Shortleaf pine / 235.6 / 398.2
Pinuselliottii / Slash pine / 141.8 / 334.3
Pinuspalustris / Longleaf pine / 178.7 / 414.9
aPinuspungens / Table mountain pine / 269.8 / 494.6
Pinustaeda / Loblolly pine / 163.6 / 362.1
Pinusvirginiana / Virginia pine / 223.6 / 431.5
Populustremuloides / Quaking aspen / 139.8 / 157.7
Prunusserotina / Black cherry / 130.5 / 239.0
Quercus alba / White oak / 152.5 / 211.6
Quercusfalcatafalcata / Southern red oak / 211.1 / 394.1
aQuercusmarilandica / Blackjack oak / 233.3 / 378.0
Quercusprinus / Chestnut oak / 235.2 / 375.8
Quercusrubra / Northern red oak / 158.3 / 260.3
Quercusstellata / Post oak / 261.0 / 418.1
Quercusvelutina / Black oak / 194.3 / 275.7
aTiliaamericana / American basswood / 175.2 / 263.7
Tsugacanadensis / Eastern hemlock / 207.7 / 398.9
Ulmusalata / Winged elm / 202.3 / 322.7
aUlmusamericana / American elm / 124.6 / 189.0
aSpeciesmodeled by Iverson and others (2008b) with medium reliability.
Iverson and others (2008b) modeled habitat space with high reliability, except where noted.∆MC values reported for ensemble low and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.
Appendix B. Average Correspondence (%) by Percentile of Species Occurrence in Focal AOIs, Under High and Low GHG Emissions Scenarios
Average correspondence (%)Emissions scenario / Occurrence percentile / Eastern U.S. / ALCC / DEWA PACE / SHEN PACE / GRSM PACE
High GHG / ≥ 75% / 48.5 / 69.8 / 77.1 / 86.7 / 60.7
High GHG / ≤ 25% / 28.7 / 8.8 / 0.0 / 18.9 / 0.0
Low GHG / ≥ 75% / 66.4 / 76.1 / 67.3 / 80.0 / 76.8
Low GHG / ≤ 25% / 30.5 / 1.3 / 0.0 / NA / 6.9
Appendix C. Average GCM correspondence (%)for the subset of species where elevation-related predictor variables ranked within or outside of the top five predictors of tree species habitat space in the eastern U.S. (by Iverson and others 2008a) under high (A) and low (B) GHG emissions.
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Appendix D.Range of change in suitable habitat space (∆SHS) projected by all six GCMs under (A) average high emissions and (B) average low emissions (Table 1). The data represent ∆SHS by 2100 for 35 tree species across the ALCC. Squares represent median ∆SHS and the vertical stippled line represents the change threshold, values above and below which indicate an increase and decrease in suitable habitat (that is, > 1.0 and < 1.0, respectively). For example, 0.5 = ½ of existing area, 1 = no change, 2 = doubling in area. Arrows indicate ∆SHS > 2, whereby * = max ∆SHS > 2; ** = max ∆SHS > 10; *** = max and median ∆SHS > 10. GHG = greenhouse gas emissions.
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Appendix E.Inter-PACE Jaccard Distance, Calculated with PACE-level Species Habitat Projections for Different Combinations of PACEs at Current and 2100
PACE (Current) / PACE (2100) / Average ensemble high (A1FI, A2) / Average ensemble low (B1)DEWA / SHEN / 0.21 / 0.19
DEWA / GRSM / 0.20 / 0.17
SHEN / DEWA / 0.07 / 0.06
SHEN / GRSM / 0.09 / 0.06
GRSM / DEWA / 0.01 / 0.03
GRSM / SHEN / 0.07 / 0.05
PACE = Protected Area Centered Ecosystem;,A1fiA1FI, A2, B1 = GHG emissions scenarios (Table 1);,DEWA = aggregation of Delaware Water Gap and Upper Delaware Scenic and Recreational River;, SHEN = Shenandoah National Recreation Area;, GRSM = Great Smoky Mountains National Park.
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