ASCOT
Flat Course
/ Ascot Race Course is a triangular track, with a straight course for 7 furlong races and below and a chute for the start of the 1 mile races. The triangular circuit is almost 14 furlongs long, with a 3 furlong run in. The round course descends running away from the grandstand, to almost the furthest point of the course, Swinley Bottom, which is just before the turn into the Old One Mile course. The track runs uphill then all the way to the finishing post, although as it approaches the finishing post the gradient does ease. Due to the easy turns and flat surface Ascot suits long striding, galloping types.Course Characteristics / Comparable Courses
Direction:
Tightness:
Testing:
Uphill Finish:
Undulating: / Right-handed
Galloping
Yes
Yes
No / BEVERLEY
LEICESTER
NEWMARKET(RM)
SALISBURY
SANDOWN
NEWMARKET(JC)
CARLISLE
The Stand-Out Stat:
Favourites at Ascot fare relatively well while the going is good, particularly odds on favourites which have a strike rate of 67% returning a profit of 9 points to level stakes. However when the going changes from good to soft or worse the odds on favourites take a hammering and the strike rate drops to 42% returning a loss of -15 points to level stakes.
General Course Stats:
Stats to Back with:
Criteria / Max SP / 10 Year Data / Last Season DataStrike Rate / Profit / ROI / Strike Rate / Profit / ROI
Odds On Favourites / evens / 59.5% / 1.62 / 2.05% / 80% / 3.04 / 30.4%
Course Winners in Handicaps / 2/1 / 56.4% / 13.01 / 23.7% / 50% / 0.27 / 3.38%
Beaten Favourites in July / 6/1 / 30.6% / 6.32 / 6.45% / 44.44% / 4.17 / 46.33%
Stats to Lay with:
Criteria / Max SP / 10 Year Data / Last Season DataStrike Rate / Profit / ROI / Strike Rate / Profit / ROI
All Favourites on Good/Soft or Softer / 3/1 / 82.9% / 20.29 / 49.5% / 88.9% / 6.87 / 76.3%
All Maiden Races / 3/1 / 72.3% / 17.26 / 20.8% / 85.7% / 3.22 / 46%
Distance Winners on Good/Firm or harder / 3/1 / 76.3% / 12.34 / 20.9% / 85% / 6.17 / 44%
All Favourites in Handicaps / 2/1 / 68.7% / 8.99 / 13.4% / 88.9% / 6.72 / 74.7%
Trainer Stats:
Trainers to Back
Trainer / Criteria / 10 Year Data / Last Season DataStrike Rate / Profit / ROI / Strike Rate / Profit / ROI
Haggas W / 4 year old races in July / 37.5% / 0.88 / 10.9% / 50% / 2.88 / 47.9%
Simcock D M / Returning between 16 and 35 days / 36.3% / 52.5 / 477% / 42.9% / 52 / 742%
Tregoning M P / All races / 25% / 36.85 / 40.1% / 33.3% / 6.5 / 108%
Johnston M / 2 mile races only / 24% / 30.3 / 60.6% / 37.5% / 10.3 / 129%
Gosden J / Winner last time out / 22.7% / 31.05 / 35.3% / 25% / 3.1 / 38.8%
Trainers to Lay
Trainer / Criteria / 10 Year Data / Last Season DataStrike Rate / Profit / ROI / Strike Rate / Profit / ROI
Nicholls D / Unplaced last time returning in 5 - 14 days / 100% / 59.85 / 95% / 100% / 8.55 / 95%
Channon M / Returning between 36 - 100 days / 100% / 72.2 / 95% / 100% / 7.6 / 95%
Beckett R M / All races / 98% / 40.9 / 80% / 100% / 11.4 / 95%
Brittain C E / June / 97% / 40.1 / 55% / 100% / 5.7 / 95%
Balding A M / Unplaced last time in Non-Handicaps / 97% / 29.27 / 83% / 100% / 5.7 / 95%
Bin Suroor S / Handicap races / 97% / 29.82 / 85% / 100% / 6.65 / 95%
Jockey Stats:
Jockeys to Back
Jockey / Criteria / 10 Year Data / Last Season DataStrike Rate / Profit / ROI / Strike Rate / Profit / ROI
Spencer J / Riding for M L W Bell only / 27.6% / 19.83 / 68.4% / 50% / 8.83 / 147%
Murtagh J / 4 year old races only / 22% / 11.62 / 23.2% / 40% / 10.12 / 101%
Fanning J / Riding for M Johnston only / 12.9% / 5.18 / 6.1% / 33.3% / 28.8 / 192%
Queally T P / Non-Handicap Races only / 20.7% / 34 / 117% / 20% / 17.5 / 116%
Jockeys to Lay
Jockey / Criteria / 10 Year Data / Last Season DataStrike Rate / Profit / ROI / Strike Rate / Profit / ROI
Hills M / 1 mile races only / 100% / 55.1 / 95% / 100% / 5.7 / 95%
Heffernan J A / July only / 100% / 20.9 / 95% / 100% / 7.6 / 95%
Crowley Jim / July only / 100% / 27.6 / 95% / 100% / 10.45 / 95%
Kingscote R / Riding for Tom Dascombe only / 100% / 16.2 / 95% / 100% / 11.4 / 95%
Sanders S / 2 year old races only / 100% / 28.5 / 95% / 100% / 5.7 / 95%
Moore Ryan / Riding for R Hannon only / 98.9% / 80.7 / 85.8% / 100% / 10.45 / 95%
Draw Bias:
The stalls position at Ascot varies for various races; 5f and 6f races are either centre or low, 8f races are low, centre or high and 10f and above are predominately High. When the stalls are positioned high the higher drawn horses are closest to the rail. In order to make sense of the Draw Bias the draw numbers must be reversed, see Appendix A.
These charts are based on 3 years data on good going.
Generally the draw bias favours those horses drawn closest to the rail. The exceptions to this seem to be 5 furlong races where those horses draw towards the centre of the course seem to be favoured, the same is said of races of 2 miles or over. Although there is a draw bias is not as debilitating to have a ‘bad’ draw as some courses.
AYR
Flat Course
/ Ayr is an oval track, 12 furlongs in length, with a chute that sees the start of the 11 furlong races, the run in 4 furlongs. There is a straight course, which is considerably wider and is home to the 5 and 6 furlong races. Generally the track is relatively flat, with gentle undulations thought out, being more prominent along the far side straight part of the course. Ayr is a very fair track with a good surface and well graded turns.Course Characteristics / Comparable Courses
Direction:
Tightness:
Testing:
Uphill Finish:
Undulating: / Left-handed
Galloping
No
No
No (slight) / DONCASTER
HAYDOCK
NEWBURY
NOTTINGHAM
REDCAR
BATH
YORK
The Stand-Out Stat:
In draw bias at Ayr favours horses drawn 2 or 3 stalls away from the rails, however when the going changes to soft horse right against rails are favoured, averaging a strike rate of just 50% for the 4 horses drawn against the rails.
General Course Stats:
Stats to Back with:
Criteria / Max SP / 10 Year Data / Last Season DataStrike Rate / Profit / ROI / Strike Rate / Profit / ROI
All favourites in 4 year old races / 2/1 / 52.9% / 11.9 / 23.3% / 65% / 12.9 / 64.5%
Distance winners in Handicaps / 2/1 / 44.7% / 3 / 4% / 66.6% / 4.88 / 81.3%
All favourites on Firm going / 4/1 / 39.6% / 3.5 / 6.7% / 57.1% / 4.82 / 34.4%
Beaten Favourites / 3/1 / 37.9% / 0.5 / 0.5% / 55.5% / 6.63 / 73.6%
Course and distance winners in September / 8/1 / 33.3% / 61 / 92.5% / 33.3% / 5.75 / 95.8%
Stats to Lay with:
Criteria / Max SP / 10 Year Data / Last Season DataStrike Rate / Profit / ROI / Strike Rate / Profit / ROI
Auction Races / 3/1 / 66.9% / 9.43 / 8.9% / 85.7% / 3.77 / 53.8%
May only / 3/1 / 65.9% / 5.28 / 3.8% / 72.7% / 0.44 / 4%
Trainer Stats:
Trainers to Back
Trainer / Criteria / 10 Year Data / Last Season DataStrike Rate / Profit / ROI / Strike Rate / Profit / ROI
Easterby T / Favourites in 4 year old races / 50% / 5.25 / 66% / 57.1% / 6.25 / 80%
Fahey R / 4 year old races where placed last time out / 40% / 15 / 150% / 33.3% / 9 / 150%
Nicholls D / Favourites that where placed last time out / 38% / 1.38 / 10% / 50% / 2.5 / 41%
Wilson N / 4 year old races in July / 37% / 7.75 / 97% / 50% / 9.75 / 163%
Trainers to Lay
Trainer / Criteria / 10 Year Data / Last Season DataStrike Rate / Profit / ROI / Strike Rate / Profit / ROI
Mcgregor J / All horse unplaced last time out / 100% / 24.7 / 95% / 100% / 7.6 / 95%
Monteith P / 4 year old races returning in 6 - 14 days / 100% / 30.4 / 95% / 100% / 11.4 / 95%
Nolan D / Unplaced horse last time out returning in 15 - 35 days / 100% / 30.4 / 95% / 100% / 8.55 / 95%
Perratt L A / 4 year old races in October / 100% / 13.3 / 95% / 100% / 13.3 / 95%
Berry A / All 2 year old races / 99% / 91.3 / 91% / 100% / 10.45 / 95%
Easterby T / All 6f races / 98% / 29.15 / 37% / 100% / 7.6 / 95%
Jockey Stats:
Jockeys to Back
Jockey / Criteria / 10 Year Data / Last Season DataStrike Rate / Profit / ROI / Strike Rate / Profit / ROI
Tudhope D / All races in June / 33.3% / 21.75 / 104% / 28.5% / 2.5 / 35.7%
Egan J / All 4 year old races / 28.5% / 26.5 / 379% / 33.3% / 27.5 / 458%
Mcdonald P J / All 2 year old races / 27.3% / 6.5 / 59.1% / 33.3% / 6 / 100%
Gibbons G / All 4 year old races / 27.8% / 10.5 / 58.3% / 25% / 11 / 91.6%
Jockeys to Lay
Jockey / Criteria / 10 Year Data / Last Season DataStrike Rate / Profit / ROI / Strike Rate / Profit / ROI
Fanning J / All races in October / 98% / 46.44 / 92.8% / 100% / 5.7 / 95%
Mullen A / All 4 year old races / 97.8% / 39.45 / 85.7% / 90.9% / 6.2 / 56.3%
Hamilton T / All rides for I Semple / 100% / 11.4 / 95% / 100% / 5.7 / 95%
Tudhope D / All 10f races / 100% / 19 / 95% / 100% / 5.7 / 95%
Sullivan J P / All handicap races / 100% / 23.75 / 95% / 100% / 19.95 / 95%
Draw Bias:
The stalls at Ayr are either high or low for 5f, 6f, and 7f races, for 8f, 9f and 10f they are positioned high and low for races over 10f. When the stalls are positioned high the draw numbers must be reversed, see Appendix A.
These charts are based on 3 years data on good going.
The draw bias although generally favours a draw 3 or 4 stalls out from the rails, this does change for each distance. Also the change in going has a dramatic effect on the draw.
Draw Bias on soft going
There is marked change in Draw Bias with a change in going, the below chart shows the draw bias when the going becomes soft.
The change in going definitely favours those horses drawn closest to the rails, putting those horses that are drawn furthest away from the rails at a considerable disadvantage.
HAYDOCK PARK
Flat Course
/ Haydock Park is a 13 furlong, left handed oval course with long straights and tight turns, despite the turns Haydock does favour the galloping type. There is a straight course form 5 and 6 furlong races. The run in is 4 and half furlongs in length and is slightly up hill throughout, there a small chute off the round course where 12 furlong races start.Course Characteristics / Comparable Courses
Direction:
Tightness:
Testing:
Uphill Finish:
Undulating: / Left-handed
Galloping
No
No
No / AYR
BATH
DONCASTER
NEWBURY
NOTTINGHAM
REDCAR
YORK
The Stand-Out Stat:
Favourites at Haydock do exceptionally well, it seems that over the past 3 years the market points to potential winners especially when they are below 4/1. Favourites below 4/1 at Haydock have a strike rate of just over 40%.
General Course Stats:
Stats to Back with:
Criteria / Max SP / 10 Year Data / Last Season DataStrike Rate / Profit / ROI / Strike Rate / Profit / ROI
Odds On Favourites in 4 year old races / Evens / 68.4% / 3.65 / 19.2% / 71.4% / 2.6 / 37.1%
Distance Winners in Handicaps / 2/1 / 45.5% / 0.95 / 1.06% / 71.4% / 4.9 / 70%
Favourites in Maidens / 3/1 / 43.1% / 5.66 / 1.76% / 43.7% / 4.7 / 14.6%
Favourites on Firm Going / 4/1 / 42.8% / 10.98 / 17.4% / 75% / 13.51 / 112%
Course and Distance winners / 4/1 / 28.4% / 12.93 / 7.84% / 30.7% / 1.4 / 10.7%
Stats to Lay with:
Criteria / Max SP / 10 Year Data / Last Season DataStrike Rate / Profit / ROI / Strike Rate / Profit / ROI
Beaten Favourites in 4 year old races / 3/1 / 80% / 10.39 / 41.5% / 75% / 2.78 / 34.7%
Trainer Stats:
Trainers to Back
Trainer / Criteria / 10 Year Data / Last Season DataStrike Rate / Profit / ROI / Strike Rate / Profit / ROI
Stoute M / Winners last time out / 39.1% / 25 / 108% / 50% / 3.5 / 58.3%
Bin Suroor S / 2 year old races only / 35.7% / 5.05 / 36% / 33.3% / 3.62 / 60.2%
Spearing J / All Races / 29.4% / 12.5 / 73.5% / 42.8% / 5.5 / 78.5%
Nicholls D / 2 year old races only / 30% / 59 / 295% / 33.3% / 11.5 / 127%
Swinbank G A / 4 year old races being unplaced in last run / 32% / 27.25 / 109% / 27.2% / 13.5 / 122%
Trainers to Lay