Blue-Action Deliverable DX.X
Title of the deliverable
Blue-Action: Arctic Impact on Weather and Climate is a Research and Innovation action (RIA) funded by the Horizon 2020 Work programme topics addressed: BG-10-2016 Impact of Arctic changes on the weather and climate of the Northern Hemisphere. Start date: 1 December 2016. End date: 1 March 2021.
/ The Blue-Action project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement No 727852.About this document
Deliverable: DX.X
Work package in charge: WPXX Title of the work package
Actual delivery date for this deliverable: Project-month XX
Dissemination level:
The general public (PU)
The project partners, including the Commission services (PP)
A group specified by the consortium, including the Commission services (RE)
This reports is confidential, only for members of the consortium, including the Commission services (CO)
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Lead author(s)
Name of the partner’s institution: Name of the colleagues who worked on this deliverable
Other contributing author(s)
Name of the partner’s institution: Name of the colleagues who worked on this deliverable
Reviewer(s)
Name of the partner’s institution: Name of the colleagues who worked on this deliverable
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Index
Summary for publication 5
Work carried out 6
Main results achieved 6
Progress beyond the state of the art 6
Impact 6
Lessons learned and Links built 11
Contribution to the top level objectives of Blue-Action 11
References (Bibliography) 13
Dissemination and exploitation of Blue-Action results 13
Dissemination activities 13
Did you implement any of these activities listed below? If yes, complete the table below with details 13
Other publications 15
Uptake by the targeted audiences To be filled in by the project office 15
Intellectual property rights resulting from this deliverable 15
Page 2Blue-Action Deliverable DX.X
Summary for publication
This section should be easy to read i.e. written in a language easily understandable by a broader public, thereby promoting the dissemination and supporting the exploitation of EU funded results. It should preferably be one page and not exceed the two pages. This part must not contain any confidential data. The summary for publication must be drafted as a "stand-alone" text. No references should be made to other parts of the report. References can be made only to publicly available information.
· Provide here a short summary explaining shortly the work done.
· Include a paragraph indicating the main results: Provide here a list of the results achieved with this deliverable. If the deliverable is for the general public (PU) make sure this content can be understood by a non-technical audience.
Work carried out
Explain here below the work carried out and give details on the work carried out and indicate clearly which partner contributed to which tasks
Explain the reasons for deviations from the DoA, changes made, difficulties in the implementation if any. The latest version of the DoA can be found here: http://blue-action.eu/index.php?id=4019, please check what was stated in PART A.
Main results achieved
Which results have been achieved with this deliverable?
Progress beyond the state of the art
Describe the advance provided beyond the state of the art (if relevant) and the extent the work has been ambitious.
Impact
How has this work contributed to the expected impacts of Blue-Action?
Provide information on the actual impacts, including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project.
Please check the DoA Section 2.2 (reported here below in grey) , how did the work in this deliverable contributed to the listed expected impacts?
Section 2.1.1 Expected impacts of the programme (DoA, Part B)
Blue-Action will attain all the expected impacts indicated in the BG10 call text.
Improve capacity to predict the weather and climate of the Northern Hemisphere, and make it possible to better forecast of extreme weather phenomena
Blue-Action will realize better the potential skill of weather and climate predictions systems along four lines of coordinated research and development activities;
· Improved representation of process specific to the Arctic (WP3, WP4)
· Optimized use of data, closing data gaps, increased operability and utility (WP2,WP3,WP4)
· Improved representation of Arctic-lower latitude linkages (WP1, WP2, WP3, WP4)
· Interaction with business stakeholders will be enhanced by testing the delivering of new downstream products and services (WP1,WP4, WP5)
Specific efforts include; optimized initialization strategies that limit the forecast shock and facilitate the uptake of Earth Observations (WP4); developing new, optimized data products by combining measurements from ocean monitoring systems with satellites information to meet the needs of the predictive community, in part by assuring near-real time data provision (WP2); improved simulation of Arctic-lower latitude ocean linkages, heat anomaly propagation and the modulation of Arctic sea-ice in the marginal ice zone (WP2); new novel approaches and parameterizations to represent the effects on turbulent vertical heat fluxes of cracks and leads in arctic sea ice cover (WP3); improved representation of the stable arctic boundary layer over ice (WP3, WP4) critical for the development of arctic weather systems (WP1,WP5); improved, initialized multi-model seasonal-decadal ensemble predictions (WP4); representation of the effects of runoff from Greenland in ocean initial conditions (WP4) presently not included due to sparse observations along the Greenland east coast.
Capitalizing on these advances in predictive capacity, Blue-Action develops risk-based forecasts of extreme weather phenomena at sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (s2s) time scales through an innovative, process-oriented description of the weather systems in which extremes are likely to form (WP1). The improved ability to both detect and predict seasonal climate variations that might result in potentially hazardous events serve to enhance the societal coping capacity and resilience (WP5).
Improve the capacity to respond to the impact of climatic change on the environment and human activities in the Arctic, both in the short and longer term
The project focus is to enhance the response capacity of specific stakeholders in the Northern Hemisphere by delivering in an open dialogue with specific end-users the results of the research activities to the society and testing the value of the climate services through joint activities with societal players (business, policy makers, NGOs, indigenous communities). Thus the project goes beyond the specific Arctic area, as the consequences of the changes in the Arctic affect not only the Arctic. Nevertheless we have strategically planned to have i) four (of the five) lighthouse projects in WP5 to focus on specific Arctic business, i.e. the tourism industry in Lapland (Finland), the forecasting of polar lows (Scandinavia), the resource-extraction in the Russian Arctic, climate services for the marine fisheries (North Atlantic); and ii) the joint-work with key decision-makers of the Inuit and Sami community and representatives of environmental NGOs in the Societal Engagement Group (WP8).
Improve the capacity of climate models to represent Arctic warming and its impact on regional and global atmospheric and oceanic circulation
The climatology of the stable planetary boundary layer over sea-ice and snow covered regions in the Arctic and at high latitudes has been shown to be one of the leading factors affecting simulated Arctic surface warming in present day climate models and the likely cause for their limited direct skill to represent the observed Arctic amplification of global warming. Blue-Action targets this deficit through improved descriptions of the effects of leads (WP3). Although leads and cracks in sea-ice make up a small fraction of the surface area, the very large temperature differences between the ocean and atmosphere result in strong fluxes of heat and water-vapour from these cracks and, the net flux from an area has a strongly non-linear dependence on the fraction of open water. Accounting for these effects has been shown to lead to radically different surface energy budgets, as compared to simple flux-gradient approximations of the dynamics. Currently these effects are not included in most of CMIP5 models. Blue-Action develops new, novel approaches and parameterizations to represent the effects on turbulent vertical heat fluxes of cracks and leads in arctic sea ice cover (WP3). A proper understanding of two-way linkages between the Arctic and lower latitudes are key to achieve more realistic representation in model systems i) for predictive skill beyond seasons through propagating thermohaline anomalies, ii) a requisite for realistic impact of arctic changes on global ocean and atmospheric circulation, iii) a requirement for communicating ocean low-latitude warming to the Arctic where it activates feedbacks leading to Arctic amplification and iv) a necessity to capture realistically atmospheric teleconnections that may serve as an additional amplification of Arctic feedback mechanisms. Climate models have been shown to have limited skill in simulating the ocean exchanges in complex oceanographic setting and Blue-Action will improve the representation of two-way ocean linkages (WP2, WP4) with the potential improvements on i) to iv). The urgency of responding to these deficits in representing ocean and atmospheric linkages is emphasized by ongoing changes in the Arctic hydrological cycle, accelerated mass loss from glaciers and ice-sheets and dramatically enhanced liquid storage of freshwater in the Arctic Ocean.
Improve the uptake of measurements from satellites by making use of new Earth observation assets
Earth observations from space of the cryosphere and ocean surface state in particular are essential assets in model initialization (WP4), for evaluation of skill (WP1,4), for identification of hazardous weather phenomena (WP1), for assessing model performance (WP2,3) and the basis for developing improved process representation (WP2,3). In Blue-Action the uptake of available near-real-time Earth observations is in part ensured through the integration of operational Copernicus products and services for initialization (ocean, cryosphere and atmosphere, WP1,2,3,4). Blue-Action improves the uptake of both operational and delayed mode data through a number of specific activities:
· By exploring more advanced methods to initialize snow cover, sea-ice extent and thickness over the Arctic (WP4) assuming advances in observational capabilities (reduced uncertainty and new missions).
· By optimizing the flux estimates from moored ocean observing systems to serve the specific needs of the predictive community. This is a achieved by identification of gaps and by developing new algorithms, taking advantage of new, high latitude Earth Observation assets (WP2).
· By the use of high-resolution SPOT satellite observations of the sea-ice cover to improve the representation of surface heat flux in Arctic and planetary boundary layer in climate models.
· By the combination of in-situ measurements from ocean mooring systems, new ocean observing platforms and data from existing and upcoming satellite missions to produce a valid view of ocean heat anomaly propagation towards the Arctic (WP2).
Lead to optimised observation systems for various modelling applications
Blue-Action will assess the suitability and utility of parts of the ocean observing system for initializing prediction systems (WP2, WP4). Targeted systems for optimisation (WP2) include the comprehensive moored observatories designed to monitor ocean exchanges and operated semi-operationally in the Atlantic and at the gateways to the Arctic. Optimization will facilitate enhanced exploitation and is focussed on operability, fast data return and closing data gaps. Coordination of efforts and the added value of estimates (near-real-time and delayed) will further enhance their utility for validation of model systems.
Contribute to a robust and reliable forecasting framework that can help meteorological and climate services to deliver better predictions, including at sub-seasonal and seasonal time scales
Blue-Action will establish a robust and reliable forecasting framework for probabilistic predictions of extreme weather phenomena at subseasonal-to-seasonal (s2s) time scales and beyond (WP1). Key to this is development of innovative, process-oriented description of the weather systems in which extremes are likely to form, building on assessment and quantification of empirical relationships between large-scale atmospheric and lower boundary (ocean surface, sea ice) drivers.
Blue-Action specifically contributes to develop arctic climate services (WP5) by providing a targeted forecasting framework which by the means of maps tailored to high-level end-users provide practical application of medium-to-long-range prediction of marine cold air outbreaks and polar lows, to limit risks for humans, business activities and the environment in the Arctic.
Improve stakeholders’ capacity to adapt to climate change
In Blue-Action a wide range of societal actors (researchers, citizens, policy makers, business, third sector organisations, etc.) work together during the whole research and innovation process in order to better align both the process and the project outcomes with the values, needs and expectations of society, in line with the European strategy for Responsible Research and Innovation.
We have identified a number of stakeholders in the project whose adaptive capacity is to be improved: 1) Key business stakeholders will be enhanced by testing the delivering of new services and products (WP5) to marine fisheries, tourism, shipping, oil and gas extraction, health sector. Additionally, Climate-KIC and the WOC will be transferring the achievements of WP5 to a larger number of business actors (WP8) amplifying the impacts achieved in WP5. 2) Key representatives of the Inuit and Sami community (policy and decision makers), engaging with the project and opening up for a dialogue and their critical review of the project results through the participation in the Societal Engagement Group. 3) Policy makers at European and national level will be timely involved in the project and requested to express their needs/provide feedback to the project and use/re-use of results at EU and national level (WP8). 4) Key representatives of environmental NGOs such as Greenpeace and BirdLife International who will be engaged in the project through the Societal Engagement Group and requested to review project results and activities on a regular basis (WP8).