Young People and Risk

Young People and Risk

Troubles of Youth

12th November 2007

Lecture Outline

•Theories of Risk

•Risk-focused prevention

•Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development

–Factors

–Theories

–Critique

Theorising Risk

•Cognitive Science Perspective

–Risk is objective, calculable and controllable

–Cognitive Science recognises the public cynicism, and aims to foster an understanding between public and ‘institutions’

–Also aims to provide “correct” knowledge about risk

–Rational-choice

Theorising Risk (2)

•Socio-cultural perspectives

–Address the social and cultural contexts within risk is understood: Risk is

•An increasingly pervasive concept

•A central aspect of human subjectivity

•Seen as manageable

•Associated with choice, responsibility and blame

Theorising Risk (3)

•Social constructionist perspective

–Risk is never fully objective, and can only be identified and managed via pre-existing discourses and knowledge

–The distinction between ‘real’ and ‘false’ risks is meaningless

Developmental / Risk focused prevention

•4 major prevention strategies

Tonry and Farrington (1995)

•Developmental / risk focused prevention

•Community prevention

•Situational prevention

•Criminal justice prevention

•Risk-focused prevention: logic -

–identify key risk factors for offending and key protective factors designed to counteract them

–interventions aimed at increasing protective, and decreasing risk factors

–emphasis on high-quality evaluations

The Cambridge Study

•The Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development

•Headed by Prof David Farrington

•Prospective longitudinal survey addressing development of offending and antisocial behaviour in 411 males in a working class inner city area of South London

•First contacted 1961–62

•Over 150 publications using the data

Individual Risk Factors

•Personality

•Temperament

•Empathy

•Impulsiveness

•Cognition

Family Risk Factors

•Criminal and Antisocial Parents

•Large Family Size

•Child-rearing methods

•Child Abuse and Neglect

•Parental Conflict and Disruption

School Risk Factors

•Characteristics of Schools

•Low Intelligence and Attainment

Multicollinearity

•Problem: huge overlap and interrelationships between factors

•Independent predictors:

–impulsivity

–intelligence / attainment

–poor parenting

–criminal family

–socio-economic deprivation

–child antisocial behaviour

Farrington’s Theory

•Offending is the end point of a 4 stage process

•energizing

–long term: desires for material good, status and excitement

–short term: boredom, frustration, anger and alcohol consumption

•directing

–how these factors are directed is important: habitually choosing socially disapproved methods leads to delinquency – strain theories (not just material strain)

•inhibiting

–scripts of conformity and deviance: internalized beliefs constructed through social learning, due to rewards and punishments, along with empathy

•decision making

–the situational position of an individual in his environment – perceptions of cost and benefits: costs include disapproval by significant others

Critique of Farrington

•Methodological

•Logic looks for variation between individuals, to predict variation within individuals

•Focus on the individual

•Focus on onset

Critique of Farrington

•Factors

–Methodology / Theory (?) ignores race and gender

–Assumes consistent “effect”

•over time

•between individuals

–Symptoms or Causes of offending?

–Factors, not turning points: “critical moments”

Critique of Farrington (2)

•Interpretation

–Over-predictive

•Chronic offenders “might be identified with a reasonable accuracy at age 10”

–False Positives: “Many are called: few are chosen” (MacDonald)

–Still forms the basis of large parts of criminal justice, and other youth interventions

•e.g. OASys, Youth Inclusion Projects

Risk Focused Prevention

•Parent Education and Training

•Pre-School Programmes

–eg. “HeadStart”: daily pre-school programmes, targeting cognition, intelligence and attainment

•School Programmes

–attainment

–anti-bullying

•Communities that Care

–community wide programmes targeting risk and protective factors

•Actuarial Justice?

–rehabilitation, or even ‘just deserts’ disappearing?