Add these references (and hot links to .pdf papers) to those already on my web pages (with edits).

Barber, J.J., A.E. Gelfand and J.A. Silander. 2006. Modeling map position error to infer about true feature location. Canadian Journal of Statistics. 34(4): 1–18. (.pdf file)

Leicht-Young, S.A. , J. A. Silander Jr.and A. M. Latimer. 2007. Comparative performance of invasive and native Celastrus species in heterogeneous environments. Oecologia 154(2):273-282.(.pdf file)

de Gouvenain, R. C., R. K. Kobe, and J. A. Silander, Jr. 2007. Partitioning of understory light and dry-season soil moisture gradients among seedlings of four rain-forest tree species in Madagascar. Journal of Tropical Ecology 23(5): 569-579. (.pdf file)

Bond, W., J. A. Silander, Jr., J. Ranaivonasy and J. Ratsirarson 2008. The antiquity of Madagascar’s grasslands and the rise of C4 grassy biomes. Journal of Biogeography 35(10): 1743-1748 (with editorial commentary on the article).(.pdf file)

Ibáñez, I., J. A. Silander, A. M. Wilson, N. LaFleur, N. Tanakaand Ikutaro Tsuyama. 2009. Multi-variate forecasts of potential distributions of invasive plant species. Ecological Applications 19(2): 359–375. (.pdf file)

Mosher, E.S., J.A. Silander, Jr. and A.M. Latimer 2009. The role of land-use history in major invasions by woody plant species in the northeastern North American Landscape. Biological Invasions11(10): 2317-2328. (.pdf file)

Latimer, A.M., S. Banerjee, H. Sang, E. S. Mosher and J. A. Silander, Jr. 2009. Hierarchical models facilitate spatial analysis of large data sets: a case study on invasive plant species in the northeastern United States. Ecology Letters 12: 144–154. (.pdf file)

Leicht-Young, S.A., H. O’Donnell, A.M. Latimer and J.A. Silander, Jr. 2009. Effects of an invasive plant species, Celastrus orbiculatus, on soil composition and processes. American Midland Naturalist 161: 219-231. (.pdf file)

Latimer, A.M., J.A. Silander, Jr. A.G. Rebelo and G.F. Midgley. 2009. Experimental biogeography: the role of environmental gradients in high geographic diversity in Cape Proteaceae. Oecologia 160:151–162. (.pdf file)

Primack, R.B., I. Ibáñez, H. Higuchi, S.D. Lee, A.J. Miller-Rushing, A. Wilson and J.A. Silander, Jr. 2009. Spatio-temporal mismatches in species responses to climate change. Biological Conservation 142: 2569–2577. (.pdf file)

Ibáñez, I., J.A. Silander Jr., J.M. Allen, S.A. Treanor, and A.M. Wilson. 2009. Identifying hotspots for plant invasions and forecasting focal points of further spread. Journal of Applied Ecology 46, 1219–1228. (.pdf file)

Wilson, A.M. A.M Latimer, J.A. Silander, Jr., A.E. Gelfand and H. de Klerk. 2010. A Hierarchical Bayesian model of wildfire in a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot: implications of weather variability and global circulation. Ecological Modelling221(1): 106-112.(.pdf file)

Ferketic, J.S., A.M. Latimer, and J.A. Silander Jr. 2010. Conservation justice in metropolitan Cape Town: A study at the Macassar Dunes Conservation Area. Biological Conservation. 143(5): 1168-1174.(.pdf file)

Ibáñez, I., R. B. Primack, A. J. Miller-Rushing, E. Ellwood, H. Higuchi, S.D. Lee, H. Kobori, and J. A. Silander, Jr. 2010. Forecasting phenology under global warming. PhilosophicalTransactions of the Royal Society (B): Biological Sciences 365: 3247-3260. (.pdf file)

Wilson A.M., J.A. Silander, Jr., A E. Gelfand and J. H. Glenn. 2011. Scaling up: linking field data and remote sensing with a hierarchical model (Special Issue paper: Spatial Ecology). International Journal of Geographical Information Science25(3): 509-521. (.pdf file)

Chakraborty, A., A. E. Gelfand, A. M. Wilson, A. M. Latimer and J. A. Silander, Jr. 2010. Modeling large scale species abundance with latent spatial processes. Annals of Applied Statistics 4(3): 1403–1429. (.pdf file)

Merow, C., A. M. Latimer, And J.A. Silander, Jr. 2011. Can Entropy Maximization Use Functional Traits To Explain Species Abundances? A Comprehensive Evaluation. Ecology 92(7):1523-1537. (.pdf file)

Merow, C, N. LaFleur, J.A. Silander, Jr. A.M. Wilson and M. Rubega. 2011. Developing dynamic, mechanistic species distribution models: predicting bird-mediated spread of invasive plants across northeastern North America. American Naturalist178(1):30-43. (.pdf file)

Stacey A. Leicht-Young, S.A., A. M. Latimer., and J.A. Silander, Jr. 2011. Lianas escape self-thinning: experimental evidence of positive density dependence in temperate lianas Celastrus orbiculatus and C. scandens. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics13(3): 163-172.(.pdf file)

Chakraborty, A., A. E. Gelfand, A. M. Wilson, A. M. Latimer and J. A. Silander, Jr. 2011. Point Pattern Modeling for Degraded Presence-Only Data over Large Regions. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Section C Applied Statistics 60(5): 757-776. (.pdf file)

Bois, S.T., J.A. Silander Jr., and L. J. Mehrhoff. 2011. Invasive Plant Atlas of New England, the Role of Citizens in the Science of Invasive Alien Species Detection. BioScience 61(10):763-770. (.pdf file)

Ellwood, E.R., J. M. Diez, I. Ibáñez, R. B. Primack, H. Kobori, H..Higuchi, J. A. Silander, Jr. 2012. Disentangling the paradox of insect phenology: are temporal trends reflecting the response to warming? Oecologia 168(4): 1161-1171. (.pdf file)

Ahmed,K.F., G. Wang, J. A. Silander, Jr., A.M. Wilson, J.M. Allen, R. Horton, and Richard Anyah. 2013. Statistical downscaling and bias correction of climate model outputs for climate change impact assessment in the U.S. Northeast. Global and Planetary Change. 100: 320-332. (.pdf file)

1. The Biogeography, Biodiversity and Climate Change in Southern Africa.
This project is multidisciplinary, combining ecology, evolution, genetics, biogeography, climate change and statistics, supported by successive NSF grants. The first objective of the project was to explain biogeographic patterns of plant species distributions and biodiversity in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa. The “Cape” is biotically one of the most diverse regions in the world, as diverse as many of the world's rainforests. The focal plant group for this study was initially the Proteacea, the iconic plant family ofSouth Africa. We developed novel, spatially explicit statistical models (Hierarchical Bayesian) to understand and predict patterns in species distributions and biodiversity. The data sources include GIS (environmental) data layers, species attribute data, species inventories (from theProtea Atlas Project), phylogenetic information, and other data sources. Extensive field work including experimental biogeography and population genetic analyses was conducted in South Africa. Selected recent papers and manuscripts are listed above. Continued NSF funding has allowed us to explore climate change inSouthern Africaand the predicted population and species levels responses of proteas to past and future projected climate change. We also developed models predicting wildfires, biomass change, and ecosystem resilience over time. A related NSF project focuses on evolutionary processes in Protea species. An NSF-IRES grant provided research training support for undergraduate and graduate students studying the ecology and evolutionary biology of the Cape Floristic Region. Most recently, an NSF Dimensions of Biodiversity grant has allowed us to expand our study of biodiversity in the Cape Florist Region to focus on phylogeography, and the genetic and evolutionary basis of plant functional trait variation in two diverse plant genera in the Cape: Protea and Pelargonium. In addition, we are looking at the spatial and temporal dynamics of the plant communities in which these genera occur. Finally, we are developing mechanistically based, predictive range models of proteas, based on integral projection models that will allow us to forecast how species ranges may change over time as climate changes.

2. The Ecology of Invasive Plant Species in New England.
This project has focused on developing an on-line atlas and interactive database for invasive plant species and noxious weeds ofNew England. We are collecting both historical (herbarium) and current field records of species occurrences. With this information we have developed models to predict current and future patterns of invasive species distributions. An integral part of the project is developing an early-detection/early-warning system for new incursions of invasives in the landscape. We are also focusing ecological studies on selected problematic species, including the comparative ecology of native and invasive oriental bittersweet (Celastrusorbiculatus) and Japanese barberry (Berberisthunbergii) species inNew England. Another project has focused on the effects of land-use history on susceptibility to biological invasions, and how land-use and land-use change are driven by socio-economic drivers. This project was funded by the USDA. OurIPANE Invasives website is constantly being updated, and we have recently developed a collaborative relationship with EDDMapS.org to serve our data. We have developed predictive models of invasive species distributions using data from both their native ranges (focus on East Asian species) and where they have been introduced to the US and elsewhere. In addition, we have developed mechanistic, spatially explicit grid-based models of the joint spread of invasive plants and the birdspecies that disperse them.

3. Phenological Responses of East Asian species to Climate Change. This is a collaborative project funded by NSF that involves researches from UConn, Boston U, U Michigan, plus colleague s from Japan, South Korea and China. The focus is on how species of plants and animals and the communities they occur in have responded phenologically to climate change in the past and how they are forecast to respond in the future. We have used long-term phenological observations in Japan, South Korea and China, paired with meteorological stations, and we have also collaborated with the Japanese Center for Climate System Research for Regional Climate Model projections for the region for the future. Our group has focused on building mechanistic Hierarchical Bayesian models to predictive responses of flowering cherries to past and future climate change. We are also building HBlandscape models of forest community responses to past and future climate change comparing responses in New England and East Asia.

4. Sustainable Conservation inMadagascar.
Prior funding from the MacArthur Foundation and NSF focused on understanding and explaining deforestation patterns over time in the eastern coastal rainforests ofMadagascar. This project was multidisciplinary involving ecologists, anthropologists, archeologists, geographers, demographers and rural sociologists. Collaborators on this project included former student Dr. Joelisoa Ratsirarson. An experimental component of this project, done in collaboration with former student and post-doctoral fellow, Dr. Roland de Gouvenain, focused on understanding and predicting forest dynamics and regeneration of native tree species. A May 2006 expedition toMadagascarfocused on the status and evolution of grassland and savanna systems. Grasslands and conservation of their biota have been largely ignored inMadagascar. We also initiated a study on the coevolutionary history of giant elephant birds and the vegetation they browsed in the thicket biome of southwesternMadagascar(see paper published in thePRS, and highlighted inCurrent Biology). On-going research focuses on the biology and evolution of the enigmatic elephant birds ofMadagascar.A recent, collaborative grant from the MacArthur Foundation (UConn, U Antananarivo and U Cape Town) focuses on training the next generation of researchers in Madagascar on Sustainable Biodiversity, Conservation, and Climate Change Science and Policy.

People web links:

Yingying:

Hayley:

Lara: missing from EEB website!

Adam’s web site:

and:

Cory Merow:

Jenica:

Sarah’s website: