THE 3rdINTERNATIONAL SEVILLE CONFERENCEON FUTURE-ORIENTED TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS (FTA)

Impacts and implications for policy and decision making

16th and 17th of October, 2008

This is a Draft Conference Programmedated 26-06-2008 (Final Programmeto be confirmed)

Wednesday 15th of October

17.00 Registration

19.00 End of registration

Thursday 16th of October

08.00 Registration

09.00 Opening session

Opening of the conference by Peter Kind (Director of JRC-IPTS)

Keynote speech by Dr. Sandy Thomas (Head of Foresight, UK Government Office for Science, to be confirmed)

09.30 Plenary anchor paper presentations:

Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA(Theme 1)

The use and impact of FTA for Policy and Decision Making (Theme 2)

10.30 Coffee break and posters

11.00 Moderated discussion

12.00 Plenary anchor paper presentations:

FTA in Research and Innovation (Theme 3)

FTA and equity: new approaches to governance (Theme 4)

13.00 Moderated discussion

14.00 Lunch and posters

15.00 Parallel sessions

Parallel Session I - Theme 1: Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
1.Complexity Scenarios: A tool for strategic orientation for managers of potentially radical new innovations, Douglas K. R. Robinson - University of Twente
2.Normative-narrative scenarios as a tool to support strategic R&D processes: usefulness and limits, Hannah Kosow - IZT - Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment, Berlin
3.Scenario Development 2.0, Ulf Pillkahn - Siemens AG
Parallel Session II- Theme 2: The use and impact of FTA for Policy and Decision Making
1.Participants looking back: what are perceptions of participants of past foresight activities on the impact on policy-making?, Tatsuro Yoda - Institute for Future Technology
2.Joint Horizon scanning: identifying common strategic choices and knowledge, Victor van Rij - Ministry of Education,Culture and Science of the Netherlands
3.Results and impact of national Foresight-Studies, Dirk Meissner - Presidential Office, Swiss Science and Technology Council
Parallel Session III- Theme 3: FTA in Research and Innovation
1.The Future of Agricultural Research and Institutional Innovation in Latin America and the Caribbean, Antônio Maria Gomes de Castro - Brazilian Corporation for Agricultural Research (Embrapa)
2.Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi, Alexander Sokolov - Higher School of Economics, Moscow
3.Foresight for S&T priority-setting in a small country: the case of Luxembourg, Frank Glod - FNR Luxembourg
Parallel Session IV - Theme 4: FTA and equity: new approaches to governance
1.FTA and Governance: How Good Can It Get? The case of stakeholder image construction in a municipal vision project, Stefanie Jenssen - University of Oslo, Norway
2.Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of National Innovation System, Torsti Loikkanen - VTT Innovation Studies, Finland
3.Exploring future-oriented Governance and Technological Innovation mechanisms in the Euro-Mediterranean Region, Gianluca Misuraca - Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL)

16.30 Coffee break and posters

17.00 Parallel sessions

Parallel Session I- Theme 1: Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
4.Real-Time Delphi as a Tool for ScenariosBuilding: a case report on an aeronautical firm, Denis Lima Balaguer - Embraer
5.Backcasting for sustainability in the Netherlands: impacts after ten years, policy relevance and a methodological framework, Jaco Quist - Delft University of Technology
6.The Development and Management of Sector-Level Roadmaps, Sheila Price - SPinformatics ltd
Parallel Session II- Theme 2: The use and impact of FTA for Policy and Decision Making
4.Best Practices Review of Government Led Foresight Initiatives, Jonathan Calof - Telfer School of Business, University of Ottawa
5.FinnSight 2015 – A Foresight Exercise for the Shaping of National Strategies, Ahti Salo - HelsinkiUniversity of Technology
6.The BMBF-Foresight-Process, Kerstin Cuhls - Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research
Parallel Session III- Theme 3: FTA in Research and Innovation
4.Methodology of foresight projects in strategic areas on the basis of the National Foresight Programme "Poland 2020", Adam Mazurkiewicz - Institute for Sustainable Technologies-National Research Institute
5.Evaluation of Indonesian technology roadmapping initiatives : Lessons learned towards local innovation system development, Derry Pantjadarma - Indonesian DusNational Research Council/Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology
6.Fraunhofer Future Topics - FTA as part of the strategic planning of a contract-research organisation, Raoul Klingner - Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft, Strategy and Programs
Parallel Session IV- Theme 4: FTA and equity: new approaches to governance
4.Demand articulation in emerging technologies: intermediary user organisations as loci for multiple stakeholder FTA?, Wouter Boon - UtrechtUniversity
5.Reducing the Democratic Deficit in Institutional Foresight programmes: a case for Critical Systems Thinking in Nanotechnology, Ozcan Saritas - University of Manchester
6.Bridging the gap between science and society. The STS Perspectives Foresight Project, Geneviève Drolet - Quebec Science and Technology Council

18.30 Closure

20.00 Cocktail

Friday 17th of October

09.00 Plenary anchor paper presentation and the results of the survey:

FTA in Security and Sustainability (Theme 5)

Big picture trends, drivers and discontinuities (results of the pre-conference survey)

10.00 Parallel sessions

Parallel Session I- Theme 1: Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
7.Bridging the gap between foresight and market research, Norbert Malanowski - Future Technologies Division of VDI TZ
8.Deep drills as toolkit for decision-makers, B. Domolki - Hungarian National Council for Communications and Information Technology
9.Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies, Raija Koivisto - VTT
Parallel Session II- Theme 2: The use and impact of FTA for Policy and Decision Making
7.Foresight Elaboration and Implementation Effectiveness: Lessons from the Brazilian Experience, Isak Kuglianskas - University of Sao Paulo
8.Taiwan’s Participation in EU’s Framework Programme – a pro-active effort assisted by FTA tools, Joseph R.F. Hsu - Science and Technology Division, Taipei Representative Office in EU
9.FTA approaches integrated in the broader SPI (Strategic Policy Intelligence) context – improving policies, strategies, and STI investments in Europe's regions, Dr Guenter Clar - Steinbeis-Europa-Zentrum (SEZ), Stuttgart, Germany
Parallel Session III- Theme 3: FTA in Research and Innovation
7.Adaptive, Embedded, and Disruptive Foresight: Theory and Evidence, Riel Miller - xperidox futures consulting, Paris, France
8.Tailoring Foresight to field specificities, Antoine Schoen - JRC-IPTS
9.Foresight in ICT innovation: driving the new policy mix, Linda Kool - TNO
Parallel Session IV - Theme 5: FTA in Security and Sustainability
1.UK Environmental Futures: Identifying the most important dimensions of uncertainty for the environment – an horizon scanning study by the UK Environment Research Funders forum, Gary Kass - Natural England
2.Explaining the failure of the Dutch PV energy innovation system - a functional analysis, Simona Negro - UtrechtUniversity
3.Energy and Nanotechnologies : Strategy for Australia's Future, Greg Tegart - VictoriaUniversity, Melbourne

11.30 Coffee and posters

12.00 Parallel sessions

Parallel Session I- Theme 1: Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
10.Analysis for Radical Design and Innovation, Scott W. Cunningham - DelftUniversity of Technology
11.“Brittany: agricultural and agro-food products in 2020”: foresight as an instrument to aid decision-making for development in a region of France, Clementina Sebillotte - Hungarian National Council for Communications and Information Technology
12.From oracles to dialogue, Ted Fuller- LincolnBusinessSchool
Parallel Session II- Theme 2: The use and impact of FTA for Policy and Decision Making
10. Extremadura region foresight exercise, Luis Casas - FUNDECYT
11.Trade-offs between policy impacts of foresight: Experiences from the innovation policy foresight and strategy process of the City of Vienna, K. Matthias Weber - ARC systems research
12.Innovation programmes in the Netherlands: the case of Logistics & Supply Chains, M.J. (Marcel) Kleijn - SenterNovem, The Netherlands
Parallel Session III- Theme 3: FTA in Research and Innovation
10.User involvement in living lab research: experiences from an interdisciplinary study on future mobile applications, Katrien De Moor - Research Group for Media & ICT (MICT-IBBT), GhentUniversity
11.Futuring the Changing World for Industrial Technologies, Augusta Maria Paci - Institute of Industrial Technologies and Automation of Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche
12.Future ICTs for Active Ageing: Brain-machine and Brain-computer Interfaces, Ramon Compano – JRC-IPTS
Parallel Session IV- Theme 5: FTA in Security and Sustainability
4.Future Technology Analysis for Biosecurity and Emerging Infectious Diseases in Asia-Pacific, Nares Damrongchai - APEC Center for Technology Foresight
5.Providing a solid foundation for sustainable policy measures in Europe, Peter De Smedt - EC DG RTD
6.Agrimonde: Farming and food systems of the world in 2050. Linking the global challenges of food security and sustainability with local development and technology strategies, Sébastien Treyer - AgroParisTech/ENGREF

13.30 Lunch and posters

14.30 Parallel sessions

Parallel Session I- Theme 1: Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
13.Simulation Research on the Course of Urbanization in China -A case of Chengdu city, Yang Chenggang - Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu
14.Evaluation of Korea's Technology Foresight, Seokho Son - KoreaInstitute of S&T Evaluation and Planning
Parallel Session II- Theme 2: The use and impact of FTA for Policy and Decision Making
13.Ag2020 - Foresight Analysis for World Agricultural Markets (2020), Kristian Borch - DanishTechnicalUniversity
14.Bridging scenario and strategy analysis: current practice and impacts on decision-making in environmental policy, Axel Volkery - European Environment Agency
Parallel Session III- Theme 4: FTA and equity: new approaches to governance
7.Interactive backcasting for sustainable biomass and the relation to innovation systems analyses, Sylvia Breukers - UtrechtUniversity
8.Bio-bricks or Bio-conflicts? Building Public Trust in the Governance of Synthetic Biology, Amy Lynn Fletcher - University of Canterbury
Parallel Session IV- Theme 5: FTA in Security and Sustainability
7.Adaptive Foresight in the Creative Content Industries: Anticipating value chain transformations and need for policy action, Fabienne Abadie – JRC-IPTS
8.Regional Infrastructure Foresight: A technology user oriented Foresight-Approach for collective and organizational learning about the need for new technologies, Eckhard Störmer - Eawag

15.30 Coffee and posters

16.00 Parallel workshops:

Workshop I: Network building in the FTA community with focus on redefining existing networks

Workshop II: Capacity building with focus on evaluating FTA

17.30 Report back from workshops

18.00 Messages from the parallel sessions and Conclusions

18.30 Poster and paper awards and the closure of the conference