The effect of aerial suppression on the containment time of Australian wildfires estimated by fire management personnel
M. P. Plucinski A B G, G. J. McCarthy C B D, J. J. Hollis E A B F and J. S. Gould A B
A CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences and CSIRO Climate Adaption Flagship, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
B Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre, Level 5, 340 Albert Street, East Melbourne, VIC 3002, Australia.
C School of Forest and Ecosystems Science, University of Melbourne, PO Box 260, Orbost, VIC 3888, Australia.
D Present address: Department of Sustainability and Environment, PO Box 260, Orbost, VIC 3888, Australia.
E Department of Environment and Conservation, Manjimup, WA 6258, Australia.
F Present address: School of Physical, Environmental and Mathematical Sciences, University of New South Wales@ADFA, Canberra, ACT 2600, Australia.
G Corresponding author. Email:
International Journal of Wildland Fire 21(3) 219-229 http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF11063
Submitted: 6 May 2011 Accepted: 13 July 2011 Published: 14 December 2011
Abstract
The addition of aerial firefighting resources to wildfire suppression operations does not always result in faster fire containment. In this paper, containment times of fires with aerial suppression are compared with estimated containment times for the same fires without aerial suppression. Senior firefighting personnel who had worked on each fire estimated whether fires could have been contained within a time class if aircraft were not available. Data from 251 wildfires were analysed based on four fire-containment time classes: ≤2, 2–4, 4–8 and 8–24h from the start of initial attack. Aircraft were perceived to reduce time to containment when firefighting conditions were more challenging owing to fuel hazard rating, weather conditions, slope, resource response times and area burning at initial attack. Comparisons of containment time with and without aircraft can be used to develop operational tools to help dispatchers decide when aircraft should be deployed to newly detected fires.
http://www.publish.csiro.au/?paper=WF11063
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Modelling the probability of Australian grassfires escaping initial attack to aid deployment decisions
Matt P. Plucinski
A CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences and CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Email:
B Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre, Level 5, 340 Albert Street, East Melbourne, Vic. 3002, Australia.
International Journal of Wildland Fire 22(4) 459-468 http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF12019
Submitted: 3 February 2012 Accepted: 18 September 2012 Published: 23 November 2012
Abstract
Most grassfires that occur in southern Australia are contained to small areas by local suppression resources. Those that are not require extra resources from neighbouring districts. Identifying these fires at the start of initial attack can prompt early resource requests so that resources arrive earlier when they can more effectively assist with containment. This study uses operational data collected from Australian grassfires that used ground tankers and aircraft for suppression. Variables were limited to those available when the first situation report is provided to incident controllers and included weather parameters, resource response times, slope, curing state, pasture condition and estimated fire area at initial attack. Logistic regression and classification trees were used to identify grassfires likely to escape initial attack by (a) becoming large (final area ≥100ha), (b) being of long duration (containment time ≥4h) or (c) either or both of these. These fires would benefit from having more resources deployed to them than are normally available. The best models used initial fire area and Grassland Fire Danger Index as predictor variables. Preliminary operational decision guides developed from classification trees could be used by fire managers to make quick assessments of the need for extra resources at early stages of a fire.
Additional keywords: classification trees, grasslands, logistic regression, wildfire containment, wildfire suppression.
http://www.publish.csiro.au/?paper=WF12019
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Airtankers and wildfire management in the US Forest Service: examining data availability and exploring usage and cost trends
Matthew P. Thompson A B, David E. Calkin A, Jason Herynk A, Charles W. McHugh A and Karen C. Short A
A Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Missoula, MT, USA.
B Corresponding author. Email:
International Journal of Wildland Fire 22(2) 223-233 http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF11041
Submitted: 22 March 2011 Accepted: 24 April 2012 Published: 10 August 2012
Abstract
Evaluating the effectiveness and efficiency of fixed- and rotary-wing aircraft is a crucial component of strategic wildfire management and planning. In this manuscript, we focus on the economics of fire and aviation management within the US Forest Service. Substantial uncertainties challenge comprehensive analysis of airtanker use, prompting calls from federal oversight agencies for improved aerial firefighting data collection and analysis. Here, we explore the availability and sufficiency of agency aviation data to track airtanker use and cost trends, and to categorise airtanker use by mission type and fire size class. Although the primary intended use of the airtanker fleet is for initial attack of wildfires, our results indicate that the use of these aircraft tends to occur for extended attack or large- fire support, with a significant number of flights associated with very large fires greater than 4047ha (10000 acres). Our results highlight apparent trends in airtanker use that challenge our ability to evaluate cost-effectiveness of airtankers. Data quality and availability issues limited our analysis, leading to a recommendation for improved data collection on flight objective and drop location. We conclude by offering suggested avenues of future research that may help address informational and analytical shortcomings.
Additional keywords: aviation, cost–benefit analysis, suppression.
http://www.publish.csiro.au/?paper=WF11041
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Large airtanker use and outcomes in suppressing wildland fires in the United States
David E. Calkin A C, Crystal S. Stonesifer A, Matthew P. Thompson A and Charles W. McHugh B
A USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 200 E. Broadway, Missoula, MT 59807, USA.
B USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory, 5575 W. US Highway 10, Missoula, MT 59808, USA.
C Corresponding author. Email:
International Journal of Wildland Fire 23(2) 259-271 http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF13031
Submitted: 28 February 2013 Accepted: 29 August 2013 Published: 3 February 2014
Abstract
Wildfire activity in the United States incurs substantial costs and losses, and presents challenges to federal, state, tribal and local agencies that have responsibility for wildfire management. Beyond the potential socioeconomic and ecological losses, and the monetary costs to taxpayers due to suppression, wildfire management is a dangerous occupation. Aviation resources, in particular large airtankers, currently play a critical role in wildfire management, and account for a relatively large share of both suppression expenditure and firefighting fatalities. A recent airtanker modernisation strategy released by the US Department of Agriculture Forest Service and the US Department of Interior highlighted cost effectiveness as the fundamental tenet of both the replacement strategy and the use of aerial firefighting resources. However, determining the cost effectiveness of alternative airtanker fleets is challenging due to limited data and substantial uncertainty regarding aerial firefighting effectiveness. In this paper, we significantly expand on current airtanker usage and effectiveness knowledge, by incorporating spatially explicit drop location data linked to firefighting resource orders to better identify the period in the fire history when drops occurred, and through characterisation of the resulting outcomes of fires that received drops during initial attack. Our results confirm earlier work suggesting extensive use of large airtankers on extended attack, despite policy suggesting priority use in initial attack. Further, results suggest that containment rates for fires receiving large airtanker use during initial attack are quite low. We explore possible causes for these results, address potential limitations with our methods and data, and offer recommendations for improvements in data collection and aviation management.
Additional keywords: cost effectiveness, fire and aviation management.
http://www.publish.csiro.au/?paper=WF13031
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Operational wildfire suppression modelling: a review evaluating development, state of the art and future directions
Thomas J. Duff A C and Kevin G. Tolhurst B
A Department of Ecosystem and Forest Science, The University of Melbourne, Burnley, Vic. 3121, Australia.
B Department of Forest and Ecosystem Science, The University of Melbourne, Creswick, Vic. 3363, Australia.
C Corresponding author. Email:
International Journal of Wildland Fire 24(6) 735-748 http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF15018
Submitted: 30 May 2014 Accepted: 31 March 2015 Published: 12 June 2015
Abstract
Wildfires are an inherent part of the landscape in many parts of the world; however, they often impose substantial economic burdens on human populations where they occur, both in terms of impacts and of management costs. As wildfires burn towards human assets, a universal response has been to deploy fire suppression resources (crews, vehicles and aircraft) to extinguish them, and limit their spread or impacts. The determination of the appropriate levels of investment, resource allocation and suppression tactics is a challenge for managers. As suppression expenses account for a substantial proportion of the cost of fires, and escaped fires account for a large portion of impacts, fire suppression models have been developed to better inform decision-makers. We undertake a review of the literature pertaining to the development of operational models that emulate fire suppression as part of decision support systems. We provide a summary of the development of modelling approaches, discuss strengths and limitations and provide perspectives on the direction of future research.
Additional keywords: bushfire, firefighting, forest, management science, operational research, optimisation.
http://www.publish.csiro.au/?paper=WF15018
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Econometric analysis of fire suppression production functions for large wildland fires
Thomas P. Holmes A C and David E. Calkin B
A USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, PO Box 12254, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, USA.
B USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Federal Building, 200 East Broadway, Missoula, MT 59807, USA.
C Corresponding author. Email:
International Journal of Wildland Fire 22(2) 246-255 http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF11098
Submitted: 14 July 2011 Accepted: 16 July 2012 Published: 18 September 2012
Abstract
In this paper, we use operational data collected for large wildland fires to estimate the parameters of economic production functions that relate the rate of fireline construction with the level of fire suppression inputs (handcrews, dozers, engines and helicopters). These parameter estimates are then used to evaluate whether the productivity of fire suppression inputs during extensive fire suppression efforts are similar to productivity estimates derived from direct observation and used as standard rates by the US Forest Service. The results indicated that the production rates estimated with operational data ranged from ~14 to 93% of the standard rates. Further, the econometric models indicated that the productivity of all inputs taken together increases more than proportionally as their use is increased. This result may indicate economies of scale in fire suppression or, alternatively, that fire managers learn how resources may be deployed more productively over the course of a fire. We suspect that the identified productivity gaps are primarily due to unobserved factors related to fire behaviour, other resources at risk, firefighter fatigue, safety considerations and managerial decision-making. The collection of more precise operational data could help reduce uncertainty regarding the relative importance of factors that contribute to productivity shortfalls.
Additional keywords: efficiency, fireline productivity, fractal dimension, random parameters, returns to scale, selective rationality.
http://www.publish.csiro.au/?paper=WF11098
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