<20091112>
Archived distributions can be retrieved at; <http://preview.tinyurl.com/35zedj> This archive includes a html version of this list distribution and its MS/WORD version with its filename as “year-month-date.doc.” You can also access all of its attachments, if any.
Dr. Kristof Kloeckner <
Jai Menon <
Robin Willner <
Paul Maglio <
Yvonne Clina <
Mr. Richard L. Garwin <
Professor Seth G. Neugroschl <
Ed Dodds <
Prof. Dr.-Ing., Dr.sc. techn. (habil) Michael E. Auer <
References:
(a) (20091101) Visit to IBM on November 3rd, 2009
http://tinyurl.com/yfa53zx
(b) IBM Meeting Minutes by Aomar Benslimane
http://tinyurl.com/ygwkho6
(c) "Globally Collaborative Environmental Peace Gaming (GCEPG)"
http://tinyurl.com/k2c7a
BTW, when I presented this project at the First International Conference on Computer Communication (ICCC) in Washington, DC in October, 1972, only the scientist from IBM Headquarters in Armonk, NY requested me further information — though I forgot his name.
(d) V. Judson Harward, et al; “The iLab Shared Architecture: A Web Services Infrastructure to Build Communities of Internet Accessible Laboratories,”
Proceedings of the IEEE, Vol. 96, No. 6, June 2008
Attached file <iLab-IEEEProceedings-2008-06 copy>
http://tinyurl.com/yckvqtp
(e) Proposal for an iLab Consortium, June, 2009
Attached file <Consortium.v9a copy.pdf>
http://tinyurl.com/yermnpx
Dear Kristof:
(1) Many thanks for your msg (ATTACHMENT I).
Dear Jai:
I also thank you for your participating in our mtg via audio conferencing.
Albeit belated, we were very much grateful for your spending a valuable time to meet us in the afternoon of November 3rd in a conference room of your IBM Headquarters — Reference (a) above.
It was a very fruitful mtg, indeed. Pls retrieve our minutes of the mtg in Reference (b) above.
(2) We would like to have our colleagues in various countries construct their countries’ national energy, economy, environment simulation models, which are to be interconnected together to form Globally Distributed Socio-Economic-Environmental Simulation System (GDSEESS);
Figure 1: <http://tinyurl.com/aj86pk
NOTE: Globally Distributed Climate Simulation System (GDCSS) may be constructed and linked with GDSEESS later, since there is severe disciplinary chasm between environmentalists and economists. Also, as said to you during our mtg, the former is based on the solution of simultaneous partial differential equations without regarding significance of any national boundaries, and on the other hand, the latter is more discrete as aggregating national phenomena and is basing on the solution of simultaneous solution of ordinary differential equations as in system dynamics methodology.
This GDSEESS may also eventually serve as the Global Early Warning System (GEWS), which was firstly proposed by the U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown at the G20 Summit in London last April.
(3) Our GEWS (which is the extension of GCEPG of Reference (c) above) is to run the national economy simulation model all the time, continuously and repetitively, say, from the year 2000 to 2050, as similar to a repetitive analog computer. The graphical presentation of the year 2000 to the present would be the past data, and the one from the present to the 2050 would be the prediction made by the simulation model. The initial conditions at the present would be revised with the fresh input data, say, about the national consensus or GDP (gross domestic product) figure, etc. This makes the simulation as similar to the one of a nuclear power plant simulator/trainer — or it could be the engine of a large oil tanker, which President Obama often quotes as analogous to the operation of the United State economy.
BTW, we plan to install Prof. Onishi’s FUGI world econometric simulation model, which has 192 country models and 8 UN sector models. He has agreed to replace each of them with the ones made by the experts of each countries, as observing the basic iron rule #1 of simulation — see Item (7) below.
Millennium Institute is now consummating a contract with the Economic Community Of West African States (ECOWAS) to construct national simulation models of their 15 consortium member countries, and also plans to construct similar models of 100 other countries in the following two years. If they can be accepted by the people of those countries, their models may be used to replace the ones of the FUGI model.
(4) Choice of simulation methodologies should be left to the experts of each country (as far as they can produce time-series table as similar to EXCEL), and what we have to concern is only how to interconnect exogenous variables among inter-related countries and sectors. For this, we would need the consistency of units and definition of variables.
Figure 2: <http://tinyurl.com/avqlkc>
We will have a joint conference with the Center for International Conflict Resolution (CICR) of Columbia University next May — two days at Columbia and one day at Polytechnic Institute of NYU — the latter is to discuss the technicalities of this project, e.g., on the consistencies of definitions of variables and units and how to interlink the models, etc.
(5) We hope that the GDSEESS will promote the “quantitative” policy analysis basing on the “facts and figures,” particularly for local confrontation prone area of developing countries. To achieve this, we would need to educate young would-be decision-makers with rational analysis and critical thinking capabilities. This would be vital necessity if you consider when most of targets of the UN’s “Millennium Development Goals” would not be met with in 2050 and the decision-makers at that time would be the current 10s and 20s youngsters.
Our project would then have the following two-tier system;
(a) One for training young would-be decision makers for understanding interwoven world phenomena with rational analysis and critical thinking, and then in crisis management, conflict resolution, and negotiation techniques basing on "facts and figures" and
(b) The other for helping decision makers constructing a globally distributed decision-support system for positive sum/win-win alternatives to conflict and war.
Each Global University System (GUS) (which is an associating project) <http://tinyurl.com/sfgm7> of various countries will maintain the sub-models of their countries autonomously – along with construction and maintenance of its databases, modification of their sub-models, and supply of game players in cooperation with their overseas counterparts through the global Internet. See <http://tinyurl.com/65wrk7> for the list and description of partners of this Global Socio-Economic-Energy-Environment Development (GSEEED) project <http://tinyurl.com/6fb8bb> – [See also MOU_Polytechnic_GLOSAS (the founder of GUS) <http://tinyurl.com/6oljpy>].
Although we did not have much time to discuss during our mtg, we would be very much appreciative if you can consider to support iLab (References (d) and (e) above). This is because we would like to join in their activities in relation with our intention of providing training young would-be decision makers for collaboratively understanding interwoven world phenomena with rational analysis and critical thinking, and then in crisis management, conflict resolution, and negotiation techniques basing on "facts and figures" as mentioned above.
Pls contact Prof. Michael E. Auer (see his address below) on this matter, who is now planning to introduce our projects to the iLab people at their annual mtg in Sydney next January.
(6) We firstly envisioned to use the so-called Beowulf mini supercomputer (clusters of PCs) at each of various countries and interlink them through broadband Internet.
However, if we can use the Cloud Computing, we may be able to eliminate the construction of Beowulf computers and Internet telecom software for the linkages of country models. It may also be much easier to conduct “Global Lecture Hall (GLH)” multipoint-to-multipoint, multimedia, interactive videoconferences, -- which I conducted with much difficulties once or twice every year for a decade in the late 1980s to 90s with the use of hybrid technologies and many domestic and overseas satellites spanning the globe <http://tinyurl.com/6r8c63>.
Dear Mr. Robin Willner:
(7) I browsed your URL, but I cannot figure out if we can use your Grid service, since our project is the distributed simulation rather than GRID. Your Grid service seems to require a central command post which instructs many PCs scattered around the world with a piece of application software and data, which then report back to the central post. This is all right for such a scientific project as the Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence (SETI).
However, this seems to enact a stringent command-control system as Stalin’s Soviet Union or feudalistic Japanese government and military. As you see in the Figure 2 above, our approach is to enact the United Nations. As one of my slides in the Reference (a) above shows, we need to observe the basic iron rule #1 of simulation, i.e., “Make simulation close to SIMULAND as much as possible.”
Thereby, I think that the cloud computing might be more suitable, if it is versatile and enhanced version of the “time-sharing” system of the good old days — see;
Smart Analytics Cloud for System z
http://www-03.ibm.com/systems/z/solutions/cloud/smart.html
Dear Mr. Paul Maglio:
(8) I tried to find out anything about your World Simulator in the IBM web site, but in vain.
Pls send me the URLs of any info about it. Thanks.
Dear Yvonne:
(9) I am sending this to you via fax, also, since you once told me that my email to you and Kristof were filtered out by your IBM email server (*). I hope this msg also goes to Jai since his other one <> bounced back the other day, saying that he was not listed in Domino Directory.
(*) Dear Kritof, Robin, Paul and Jai:
Pls kindly acknowledge your receipt of this msg.
Many, many thanks for your kind arrangements made for our visit to Kristof on 11/3rd — I was sorry I could not meet with you on that day because of your vacation. Pls convey my best regards to Ms. Lucille Bourgeois — she kindly took care of our mtg room.
Dear Richard Garwin:
(10) Many thanks for your msg (ATTACHMENT II).
Hope to see you at Seth’s monthly seminar at Columbia University, if he would resume it soon.
Dear Ed:
(11) Many, many thanks for your initial contact with Kristof through Linkedin. I now see its value.
Keep in touch.
Best, Tak
ATTACHMENT I
From: Kristof Kloeckner <
Date: Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:06:54 -0500
To: Tak Utsumi <
Cc: Robin Willner <>, Paul Maglio <>, Jai Menon <
Tak,
thanks for the meeting last week. Here is the contact information we
discussed:
You can submit a proposal directly on the website of the World Community
Grid -- http://www.worldcommunitygrid.org -- the process and
application are all on-line. Robin Willner is our VP of Global Community
Initiatives and as such the focal point for the World Community Grid.
The contact for the World Simulator at IBM Research is Paul Maglio
I have copied Robin and Paul on this note.
Kristof
Dr. Kristof Kloeckner,
CTO, Enterprise Initiatives &
VP, Cloud Computing Platforms
IBM Corporation
Armonk, NY 10504-1722
Tel: 914 499 6281
ATTACHMENT II
From: Richard L Garwin <
Date: Mon, 2 Nov 2009 03:02:59 -0500
To: Tak Utsumi <
Subject: Re: [gu-new] (20091101) Visit to IBM on November 3rd, 2009
Dear Tak Utsumi,
Good luck on your visit to IBM.
I am in England for a few days but look forward with interest to a productive interaction.
Dick Garwin
List of Distribution
Dr. Kristof Kloeckner
CTO, Enterprise Initiatives &
VP, Cloud Computing Platforms
IBM Corporation
One New Orchard Road
2B-19N-6, MD 255
Armonk, NY 10504-1722
914-499-6281
Fax: 914-499-6003
Jai Menon
IBM
Robin Willner
VP of Global Community Initiatives
Paul Maglio
World Simulator
IBM Research
Yvonne Clina
Assistant, Global Administration
Supporting Dr. Kristof Kloeckner,
CTO, Enterprise Initiatives, and
Vice President, Cloud Computing Platforms &
Florence Hudson, Energy and Environment
Executive
IBM Corporation
One New Orchard Road
M/D 255
Armonk, NY 10504
Telephone: 914-499-5339 (t/l 641)
Fax: 914-499-6003 (t/l 641)
Mr. Richard L. Garwin
IBM Fellow Emeritus
Research Division
IBM, Thomas J. Watson Research Center
P. O. Box 218
Yorktown Heights, NY 10598
914-245-2555
Fax: 914-945-4419
www.fas.org/rlg
Professor Seth G. Neugroschl
Chairman, Monthly Seminar “Computer, Man and Society”
Columbia University
Ed Dodds
<Conmergence/>
PO Box 210735
Nashville, TN 37221-0735
P: 615-301-8507
S: ed_dodds_skype
www.conmergence.com
Prof. Dr.-Ing., Dr.sc. techn. (habil) Michael E. Auer
Professor of Electrical Engineering
Head of the Center of Competence Online Labs and E-Learning
School of Systems Engineering
Carinthia University of Applied Sciences
Europastrasse 4, A-9524 Villach, Austria
T: +43-(0)-4242/90-500-2115 F: -2110
phone +43(5)90500-2115
voice messages / fax: +49(3212)1045622
www.cuas.at
http://WWW.cti.ac.at/auer
and
President and CEO
International Association of Online Engineering (IAOE)
Kirchengasse 10/200
A-1070 Vienna, Austria
T: +43-664-8959353
F: +49-12120-294752
http://www.online-engineering.org
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* Takeshi Utsumi, Ph.D., P.E., Chairman, GLOSAS/USA *
* (GLObal Systems Analysis and Simulation Association in the U.S.A.) *
* Laureate of Lord Perry Award for Excellence in Distance Education *
* Founder and V.P. for Technology and Coordination of *
* Global University System (GUS) *
* 43-23 Colden Street, Flushing, NY 11355-5913, U.S.A. *
* Tel: 718-939-0928; Fax: 718-795-1655; Skype: utsumi *
* Email: ; http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/ *
* U.S. Federal Tax Exempt ID: 11-2999676 <http://tinyurl.com/534gxc> *
* New York State Tax Exempt ID: 217837 <http://tinyurl.com/47wqbo> *
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