APPENDIX 2

EAST OF ENGLAND PLAN RSS REVIEW TO 2031

SPATIAL OPTIONS FOR ACCOMMODATING HOUSING AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN HERTFORDSHIRE

PROJECT BRIEF

EAST OF ENGLAND PLAN RSS REVIEW TO 2031

SPATIAL OPTIONS FOR ACCOMMODATING HOUSING AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN HERTFORDSHIRE

PROJECT BRIEF

1.Introduction and purpose of this brief

1.1In the near future (early October), as part of the RSS Alteration to 2031, EERA will be requesting from local authorities across the Region their views on, amongst other matters, how they can accommodate various levels of housing growth over that timeframe. Responses are expected by the week beginning 12th January 2009. In Hertfordshire the 11 local authorities (the ‘authorities’) wish to appoint the HIIS consultants (the ‘team’) to prepare spatial strategy options for meeting the housing growth levels ultimately defined by EERA and appropriate employment figures. This brief asks the team to prepare a costed proposal for the commissioning authorities to consider. That proposal would then form the basis of an extension to the HIIS contract.

2.Context

Published RSS (2001-2021)

1.2In May 2008 the Government published the Regional Spatial Strategy for the East of England – the East of England Plan (RSS). The Plan has significant implications for Hertfordshire, including the following:

  • a minimum of 83,200 homes (excluding any homes within Hertfordshire associated with either Harlow or Luton expansion into the County) between 2001-2021 and job growth of 68,000 jobs.
  • Hatfield/Welwyn Garden City identified as a Key Centre for Development and Change. Minimum 10,000 homes 2001-2021 for the district as a whole, with possibility of some growth in St Albans District if Hatfield extension to the west is favoured.
  • Hemel Hempstead identified as a Key Centre for Development and Change. Minimum 12,000 homes for Dacorum Borough as a whole but concentrated at Hemel Hempstead, with probable need to expand to the east into St Albans District.
  • Stevenage identified as a Key Centre for Development and Change. Minimum 16,000 homes 2001-2021 with major greenfield growth to the west (minimum of 5,000) and north.
  • Watford identified as a Key Centre for Development and Change. Minimum 5,200 homes 2001-2021.
  • Harlow identified as a Key Centre for Development and Change. Minimum 16,000 homes 2001-2021, including to the north of Harlow in East Hertfordshire. Eventual development to the north of Harlow for at least 10,000 dwellings ‘and possibly significantly more – of a large enough scale to be a model of sustainable development’.
  • Harlow, Hatfield/Welwyn Garden City, Hemel Hempstead and Stevenage require Green Belt reviews to accommodate potential growth requirements to 2031.
  • [there are also proposals for major housing, employment and associated development to the east of Luton in Hertfordshire].

1.3The County Council has lodged a High Court Challenge to the RSS on a number of issues – seeking removal of strategic growth at Hatfield/Welwyn Garden City, Hemel Hempstead and Harlow North and potentially quashing of housing requirements at five of the eastern districts of the County due to infrastructure constraints at Rye Meads wastewater treatment facility.

RSS Review (2011-2031)

1.4The Regional Planning Panel of EERA formally commenced the preparation of the review to the recently published RSS through the publication of a Project Plan and Statement of Public Participation. A copy of the Report to RPP and the resolution is attached to this brief as Appendix 1. At the same time RPP had sight of a draft of a proposed request for advice from strategic [s4(4)] authorities in the Region on a range of matters. The draft is appended to the RPP report.

NHPAU

1.5The National Housing Policy Advice Unit has published its advice to Government on the range of housing levels it considers regional planning bodies should test through the preparation of regional spatial strategies. The lower and upper ends of the range for the East of England are (2008-2026) between 30,600 and 39,200 annual average net additions. This compares to an annual average provision provided for within published RSS of about 27,000.

1.6EERA has written to the Secretary of State advising that the Region should be asked to test a range of housing figures that cover a range from a continuation of the growth rates recently approved in the East of England Plan through to the lower end of the NHPAU’s figures. In her response the Secretary of State has reiterated the Government’s expectation that Regional Planning Bodies should test the NHPAU housing ranges through RSS revisions.

‘………..We would therefore require the range set out in table 1 of NHPAU’s advice, to be tested through any future regional strategy process, including during the testing of different options. Where a favoured option is identified that falls outside the NHPAU range the Regional Planning Body, working with the councils and authorities identified in section 4(4) of the Planning and Compulsory Purchase act, must provide the Examination in Public with sufficient evidence to illustrate the spatial implications of delivering a level of growth within the NHPAU supply range. This evidence will need to include the broad locations for growth, district allocation of housing numbers and the implications for strategic objectives of the strategy, and be accompanied by a Sustainability Appraisal and Habitats Regulations Assessment as necessary.’

1.7EERA has resolved that, notwithstanding the Government’s guidance on testing the full NHPAU range the Assembly’s, efforts in the RSS review should test the full NHPAU range but be primarily focussed on a range between the continuation of the housing figures recently approved in the East of England Plan (25,400 homes) through to the lower end of the NHPAU’s figures only (30,600) with a longer term view of capacity up to 2050.

1.8There is currently no clarity on what numbers Hertfordshire will be asked to test as part of this sub-regional assessment process. For illustration purposes only, applying the same percentage contribution Hertfordshire makes to existing RSS growth (16%) to the EERA/NHPAU growth ranges, equates to the following total growth for the 20 year period 2011-2031 (to the nearest ‘000).

Growth range / Indicative annual rate / Hertfordshire current proportion of total housing growth in RSS / Period of RSS Alteration / Indicative total housing requirement
Current RSS rate / 25,400 / x16.4% / X20 / = 83,000
NHPAU lower / 30,600 / x16.4% / x20 / = 100,000
NHPAU mid-point / 34,900 / x16.4% / X20 / = 114,000
NHPAU upper / 39,200 / x16.4% / x20 / = 129,000

Population/Household/Dwelling/Employment Projections, the numbers Hertfordshire will be asked to test and ongoing employment technical work in Hertfordshire

1.9As part of the preparation of the RSS Alteration EERA/EEDA have commissioned a joint modelling process (economic/demography/housing) to seek to ensure that population/household projection work is more aligned with economic projections than was the case in the course of the preparation of the recently published East of England Plan.

1.10To inform the sub-regional assessments it is understood that there are to be four projections of population/households/dwellings/jobs – three dwelling-based (NHPAU lower and upper range, roll forward of current RSS rates) and one based on the RES 2.3% per capita annual growth in real workplace based GVA over 2008-2031). It is understood the projections relevant to Hertfordshire will be contained within the RPB brief to the County Council and will be on a district basis and provide population, household/dwelling and employment figures at district level for the period to 2031. These four projections will therefore form the basis of the ranges to be tested (the table above gives a broad indication of the potential scales involved at county level).

1.11Published RSS contains an indicative jobs growth figure for Hertfordshire of 68,000 for the period 2001-2021. Whether this figure can be considered as robust is currently being tested by local authorities in the County as part of the evidence base for their LDFs. Modelling work undertaken within the County (by Roger Tym and Partners in partnership with Oxford Econometrics) would suggest that the RSS figure is overly optimistic and that a more reliable one would be somewhere in the region of 52,000 jobs. That modelling work suggests a job total for the period 2011-2031 of 70,000.

Jobs (000s) / 2001 / 2006 / 2011 / 2016 / 2021 / 2026 / 2031
Broxbourne / 35.8 / 39.9 / 40.8 / 41.9 / 42.0 / 42.1 / 42.4
Dacorum / 74.3 / 68.9 / 71.6 / 75.1 / 78.1 / 82.1 / 87.0
East Herts / 65.7 / 71.0 / 72.3 / 74.3 / 74.5 / 74.9 / 75.1
Hertsmere / 54.0 / 48.3 / 49.5 / 52.2 / 54.2 / 56.7 / 59.7
North Herts / 60.3 / 55.9 / 58.3 / 61.1 / 62.8 / 64.8 / 67.1
St Albans / 68.3 / 69.6 / 70.1 / 71.0 / 70.5 / 69.9 / 69.4
Stevenage / 45.0 / 44.9 / 48.8 / 51.9 / 53.8 / 56.1 / 58.7
Three Rivers / 34.2 / 38.6 / 39.9 / 40.6 / 40.7 / 41.0 / 41.2
Watford / 64.1 / 57.1 / 57.7 / 60.2 / 61.6 / 63.1 / 65.4
Welwyn Hatfield / 66.6 / 72.6 / 75.3 / 79.3 / 82.2 / 86.0 / 90.3
Hertfordshire / 568.4 / 566.9 / 584.3 / 607.6 / 620.4 / 636.8 / 656.4

1.12A higher more aspirational upper range has been developed for the HIIS project, as follows:

Jobs (000s) / 2001-06 / 2001-21 / 2022-31 / 2001-31 / 2006-31
Broxbourne / 4,138 / 4,592 / 2,300 / 6,900 / 2,762
Dacorum / -5,475 / 9,840 / 4,920 / 14,760 / 20,235
East Herts / 5,321 / 9,840 / 4,920 / 14,760 / 9,439
Hertsmere / -5,647 / 4,100 / 2,050 / 6,150 / 11,797
North Herts / -4,347 / 5,084 / 2,540 / 7,620 / 11,967
St Albans / 1,283 / 5,904 / 2,950 / 8,850 / 7,567
Stevenage / -97 / 13,120 / 6,560 / 19,680 / 19,777
Three Rivers / 4,406 / 3,280 / 1,640 / 4,920 / 514
Watford / -6,935 / 4,264 / 2,130 / 6,390 / 13,325
Welwyn Hatfield / 5,927 / 8,200 / 4,100 / 12,300 / 6,373
Hertfordshire / -1,427 / 68,224 / 34,110 / 102,330 / 103,756

Regional Scale Settlement Study and Call for Proposals

1.13As part of the evidence base for the preparation of the RSS Alteration the RPB:

  • has commissioned a Regional Scale Settlement Study to test the feasibility and deliverability of a major new settlement or major urban extension(s) as a contribution to meeting the Region’s development needs up to and beyond 2031. It is understood that draft proposals will emerge from this study during the course of the sub-regional assessment work the subject of this brief. It is understood the interim draft report will be available on 26th September, the draft Final Report on 29th October and the Final Report on 15th December.
  • will be issuing a call for proposals from developers and local authorities. This is scheduled to take place in the week beginning 8th September, with a deadline for proposals of early October. It is understood that EERA is hoping that the strategic authorities in the Region will undertake assessments of any proposals coming forward in their area against a consistent set of criteria.

2.The scope of the services sought by this brief

2.1The Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act and PPS11 provide a number of roles for strategic upper tier and unitary authorities in England in the preparation of RSS Alterations. These can be summarised as follows:

i.seek the advice of the County Council in relation to the review of RSS. This is a general requirement with no time limits. [s4(1) of PCPA 2004].

ii.if the RPB decides to make difference provision for different parts of the Region the detailed proposals for such different provision must first be made by the County Council. [s4(5) of PCPA 2004]. Where the RPB decides that different provision should be made it must notify the County Council, give it information about how the detailed proposals are to be made (including the geographical coverage, the broad subject matter, who the County Council should work with, etc). The County Council must respond within 12 weeks.

iii.the RPB can enter into ‘arrangements’ with the County Council with regard to commissioning form it substantive work. PPS11 indicates that providing technical expertise relating to the districtdistribution of housing figures or employment land in the form of a sub-regional study is likely to fall within this category. There are no statutory time limits.

2.2EERA’s draft Request for Advice is attached as appendix B to the report to Regional Planning Panel accompanying this brief. Whilst the draft is not very explicit about what EERA is seeking from s4(4) authorities, it is clear from informal discussions that EERA is looking to s4(4) authorities not only to offer advice on certain matters but also to undertake detailed technical work on its behalf in the form of sub-regional assessments.

2.3The scope of the services sought by this brief relate principally to matters relating to the second and third bullets of paragraph 3.2 of EERA’s draft request for advice – developing spatial strategy options for a range of different potential housing levels and recommendations on employment growth levels, by district, sub-area/region and potentially KCDC.

2.4Whilst the commissioning authorities expect the consultancy team to draw up a proposal to establish precisely what the study will deliver and how, at this stage the expectation is that it will need to:

i.identify the baseline numeric and spatial distribution of existing RSS housing requirements for the period 2011-2031 and the shortfall between this and the 4 growth scenarios (see paragraph 1.10). The baseline housing position is likely to be comprised of an estimation of that proportion of the 10 borough/district LDFs 15 year housing supply remaining to be provided post 2011. By way of illustration and using the guidance within RSS Policy H1, if all relevant LDDs were approved in 2011 (which will not be the case as some will be approved prior to this date) and ran until 2026 this would provide a 2011-2031 baseline of 66,000 dwellings (to be provided by 2026).

[ii.for each growth level prepare dwelling-led population/household projections. Undertake trend based projection(s) for comparison purposes (it is assumed this assessment will utilise the teams’ in-house Chelmer model). Advise on the general demographic implications of the four levels of growth proposed in comparison with trend-based assumptions.] This may not be required given the modelling outputs that are expected from EEDA/EERA – see paragraph 1.10.

iii.identify the shortfall between the numeric countywide/district baseline housing position and each of the housing growth levels the subject of the study.

iv.identify and explore the spatial implications of all the available evidence base that would need to inform optioneering processes. This would need to include a review of:

  • the contents and implications of strategic and local guidance on issues having links to spatial planning decision-making– e.g. existing RSS, Sustainable Communities Plan, new Regional Economic Strategy, existing RSS, emerging Local Development Frameworks in and adjoining Hertfordshire, existing sub-regional studies/optioneering, existing sub-regions and proposals for sub-regional working arrangements, the recent Inter-regional Forum Study[1] on approaches to growth in and around London. etc.
  • existing technical evidence base e.g. population projections, NHPAU housing target ranges, employment forecasts, urban capacity studies, environmental designations, (historic) landscape characterisation, SHMAs, SHLAs, economic development opportunities and constraints, existing and future infrastructure constraints and opportunities, travel to work patterns, strategic spatial priorities in the plans of public and private sector agencies, etc.
  • the emerging outputs from EERA’s Regional Scale Settlement Study and its Call for Proposals.

v.identify an appropriate range of spatial strategy scenarios to apply to the Hertfordshire growth levels - continuation of existing RSS strategy, pepper-potting, large and small scale new settlements, concentrating growth close to London, transport corridors, major expansion of one or more existing settlements, etc.

vi.for each of the housing growth levels and having regard to all the intelligence gathered for (iv) use a sustainability and deliverability appraisal process to identify and justify a preferred spatial strategy (to take full account of cross-boundary growth issues). It will be for the consultant to develop how to demonstrate sustainability and deliverability. The expectation will be that the approach to sustainability assessment should be based on tried and tested approaches elsewhere, as refined to the Hertfordshire circumstance, for a broad brush appraisal such as this. In terms of deliverability the expectation will be that the team will look at comparative issues, for example to historic development rates in Hertfordshire, historic achievable development rates at major growth locations in Hertfordshire and elsewhere in the UK. Consideration will clearly also need to be given to the implications of the current housing market situation. There will not be an expectation that landowners will be approached as to land availability – for example, at major growth locations proposed (whether they be major urban extensions, new settlements, etc).

vii.for each of the four preferred strategies developed:

  • identify housing figures at district level and where necessary at KCDCs and any new major growth location.
  • identify broad locations for major regional/sub-regional scale development opportunities.
  • identify the likely strategic infrastructure and investment requirements.
  • identify any other strategic issues arising.
  • identify any parts of the County (in association with adjoining areas) where there is considered to be a strategic policy deficit for which it would be advisable to prepare sub-area/regional policies.

viii.For any part of the County (in association with adjoining areas) for which there is considered to be a strategic policy deficit recommend alterations to the wording of any existing RSS sub-areas/regions/regionally/sub-regionally significant growth locations and propose wording for any new ones proposed. The wording of any such policies would need to be compatible with the approach within existing RSS.

ix.within the context of current and emerging employment projections for the County (see paragraphs 1.6-1.8) advise on suitable employment levels for the period 2011-2031 at county and district level. It is expected that the spatial options prepared by the consultancy team will require different employment distributions.

3.Steering and engagement arrangements

Officer Steering Group

3.1A steering group of all local authorities will be established. The teams’ proposal will need to identify key stages where it will wish to report to and seek guidance from the steering group.

Member Steering Group

3.2The Hertfordshire Infrastructure and Planning Partnership is a grouping of the Executive Members with Planning Portfolios of all the Hertfordshire authorities. The currently scheduled meetings of HIPP within the timeframe of this project are 20th October, 12th November and 9th December. The team will be expected to present their emerging proposals to the latter of these two dates.

Stakeholder engagement and workshops

3.3The commissioning authorities will expect the team to engage with key stakeholders during the process and present progress and findings to one or a series of workshops during the project. The teams’ proposal will identify the potential timing of an appropriate indicative timing of such a workshop.

3.4The teams’ proposal will also set out the mechanisms for engagement with consultancy teams appointed in neighbouring s4(4) authorities (or directly with the authorities where no consultants have been appointed) to ensure there is, as far as possible, consistency in the outputs of separately commissioned work.