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THE SEVENTH TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCs/TCWCs
TECHNICAL COORDINATION MEETING
CITEKO, WEST JAVA, INDONESIA
12 TO 15 NOVEMBER 2012 / TCM-7/Doc. 3.3(2)
(31.X.2012)
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ITEM 3.3
ENGLISH ONLY
REPORT ON CURRENT AND PLANNED ACTIVITIES
Recent and Current Activities of the TC RSMCs/TCWCs
(Submitted by RSMC Tokyo, Japan)
Action Proposed
The meeting is invited to review the recent and current activities of RSMC Tokyo, Japan.
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TCM-7/Doc. 3.3(2), p. 1
Recent and CurrentActivities of the RSMC Tokyo - TyphoonCenter
1.Background
The RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center (referred to below as the Center) is a Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) that carries out specialized activities in analyzingand forecasting tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific and the South China Sea (100E-180, 0-60N) within the framework of the World Weather Watch (WWW) Programme of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The Center was established at the headquarters of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) in July 1989, following a designation by the WMO Executive Council at its 40thsession (Geneva, June 1988).
2.Productsand services provided by RSMC Tokyo
The Center disseminates the RSMC bulletins listed belowvia the GTS and the AFTN when:
- a TC of tropical storm (TS)intensity or higher exists in the area of responsibility;
- a TC is expected to reach TS intensity or higher in the area within 24 hours.
RSMC bulletins via GTS
(1) RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory: TC analysis and forecast
(2) RSMC Guidance for Forecast: Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)output
(3) SAREP: satellite analysis using Dvorak method
(4) RSMC Prognostic Reasoning: brief reasoning for TC forecast
(5) RSMC Tropical Cyclone Best Track: TC post-analysis
RSMC bulletins via AFTN
(6) Tropical Cyclone Advisory for SIGMET: analysis and forecastto supportICAO’s Meteorological Watch Offices in preparing SIGMET
In addition to the RSMC bulletins above, the Center provides a wide range of TC related information by such means as JMA website, Numerical Typhoon Prediction(NTP) website andWMO Information System (WIS)Data Discovery, Access and Retrieval (DAR).
3.Forecasting systems
Table 1: Planned improvement of JMA’s NWP models
In the TC advisories, forecasts of TC’s Center position, Radius of probability circle, and Intensity (Central pressure, Maximum sustained wind, Peak gust and Storm warning area (50-knot wind probability for domestic use)) are issued. Inthe JMA’s forecasting system, first guess of TC track and intensity forecasts are estimated automatically utilizing the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models outputs and guidance derived from NWP’s outputs. The JMA’s Global Spectral Model (GSM TL959L60), upgraded on 21 November 2007, has approximately 20 km horizontal resolution and 60 vertical layers while the typhoonensemble prediction system (TEPS TL319L60),which became operational in February 2008, has 11 members with approximately55 km horizontal resolution and 60vertical layers. Forecasters usually consider biases and tendencies of NWP model outputs, statistics and environmental field around TC to decide the final forecasts in the operational procedures. JMA’s super computer system was upgraded on5 June 2012 and NWP models utilized in TC forecasts will be improved in two years (Table 1).
4.Performance of forecasts
4.1Improvement of TC Track Forecasts
Annual mean position errors of JMA’s operational TC track forecasts are shown at Figure 1. TC track forecasts of 24-hour (since1982), 48-hour (since1988) and 72-hour (since1997)are steadily improving although with some annual fluctuations. 96-hourand 120-hourtrack forecasts have been provided since2009.
4.2Improvement of TC Intensity Forecasts
In contrast to the TC track forecasts, JMA’s operational TC intensity forecasts presently issued up to 72-hour ahead, do not have notable improvements. Rapid development and decay of TCsin particular remainsdifficult to be forecast with adequate accuracy.
Figure 1: Annual mean position errors of 24-, 48- and 72-hour operational track forecasts
5.Training activities for the members in the region
One of the activities of the Center includes providing on-the-job training seminars inviting forecasters of NMHSsof Typhoon Committee Members. This annual training seminar, started in 2001, gives opportunities to participants to learn TC operations such as cloudanalysis, Dvorak analysis including the early-stage Dvorak analysis(EDA) and TC forecasting, storm surges,quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF). To follow up the Typhoon Committee’s Annual Operating Plan 2012 to develop collaborative relationship with WMO Severe Weather ForecastingDemonstration Project(SWFDP), its framework was introduced in the training.
6.Challenging issues in implementing/improving the services
6.1WMO Information System (WIS)
6.1.1RSMC Tokyo –TyphoonCenter as Data Collection or ProductionCenter (DCPC)
As designated by Sixteenth WMO Congress in June 2011, RSMC Tokyo –TyphoonCenter has started service of DCPC of WIS with a Global Information System Center (GISC) and the other seven DCPCs in JMA. WIS is a new framework for the collection and sharing of information in support of all WMO and related international programmes, and DCPC has a role of taking care of programme-specific activity.
6.1.2 Global Telecommunication System (GTS) and Data Discovery, Access and Retrieval (DAR)
The GTS continues to serve time- and operation-critical information as an important part of WIS, while Internet-based information services are being streamlined under comprehensive catalogue for DAR. Existing Internet data services by JMA was served through a new server of GISC Tokyo in the framework of WIS DAR. The Center’s RSMC Data Serving System (RSMC DSS) was terminated at the end of March 2012, and data provided by RSMC DSS has been provided as WIS DAR since August 2011.The JMA’s GSM product with 0.25 degree resolution (surface layer) has been provided as WIS DAR since December 2011.JMA WIS Prototype Service (Service for MTSAT imagery and NWP product with the SATAID software) was reformed to JMA SATAID Service (
6.2JMA Numerical Typhoon Prediction (NTP) website
Since October 2004, the Center has officially operated a Numerical Typhoon Prediction (NTP) website in cooperation with eight NWP centers: BoM (Australia), MSC (Canada), CMA (China), ECMWF, DWD (Germany), KMA (Republic of Korea), UKMO (UK) and NCEP (US). The NTP website provides predictions of tropical cyclone tracks derived from models of the major NWP centers in order to assist the NMHSs of Typhoon Committee Members in their tropical cyclone forecasting and warning services. The website is available only to registered organizations, including the NMHSs of Typhoon Committee Members and participating NWP centers. The site’s main content is as follows:
1)Predictions of tropical cyclone tracks, in table and chart format, from participating NWP centers together with that from JMA. Ensemble mean prediction with any combination of products is also available;
2)NWP model products, in chart format, from the participating NWP centers;
3)Results of satellite image analysis (early-stage Dvorak analysis and regular Dvorak analysis);
4)Distribution maps and time-series charts of storm surges.
6.3Regional Storm Surge Watch Scheme (SSWS) suitable for the Typhoon Committee region
Following the recommendation by the 41st session of the Typhoon Committee (Chiang Mai, 2009), the Center conducted a survey in June 2009, and 12 Typhoon Committee Members responded by the end of 2009. The survey’s aim was to collect information on the present status of Typhoon Committee Members in using storm surge models in order to develop future plan for the establishment of a regional Storm Surge Watch Scheme (SSWS) suitable for the Typhoon Committee region. After reviewing the survey responses, the Center decided to provide Typhoon Committee Members with distribution maps and time-series charts of storm surges. For this purpose, 7 Typhoon Committee Members provided the Center with bathymetric data of their surrounding areas together with sea level data from past measurements. With the provided data, the Center has developed the storm surge model suitable for the Typhoon Committee region and verified the results of the model. The Centerstarted to provide storm surge distribution maps through its NTP website on 1 June 2011. From 2012 typhoon season, the Centerhas provided storm surge time series charts at one point for each Member uponits request (forecasting points to be increased if so requested by Typhoon CommitteeMembers). Information on storm surgeswas shared through the annual Typhoon Committee attachment training at the Center, 7th TCP/JCOMM Regional Workshop on Storm Surge and Wave Forecasting (Macao, China)in 2011. Verification results of the model were shown in the Technical Review published in 2012 (
Figure 2: Storm surge distribution maps and time series charts in the NTP website.
6.4Contribution to the WMO North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble ForecastProject (NWP-TCEFP)
Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Information Home Page was launched by JMA in 2010 for the purpose of providing guidance of tropical cyclone forecasts in near real-time for TYC Members, using the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) Cyclone XML (CXML) data, under the joint project of World Weather Research Program (WWRP) and Tropical Cyclone Program (TCP); North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Project(NWP-TCEFP). This Home page (NWP-TCEFP Home page) provides deterministic and ensemble TC track forecasts, and strike probability maps based on ensemble TC track forecasts. In 2011 typhoon season, improved system such as the display switch of all ensemble or deterministic data was provided. Questionnaire about effectiveness of EPS was sent to Typhoon Committee Members from WMO in December 2011 for the improvement of the NWP-TCEFP Home Page. The results of questionnaires about effectiveness of EPS summarized by the WMO WWRP/TCP and of another questionnaire carried out by GIFS-TIGGE WG showed that addition of elements such as surface wind speeds and precipitation to the website will be required. These products could be implemented, should the product specification be considered and corresponding EPS data including the extended CXML be developed with the support of data providers. Another feedback through the SWFDP in Southeast Asia will be also given to the NWP-TCEFP Home page. Under this project, evaluation of tropical cyclogenesis prediction in the western North Pacific on medium-range timescales using the TIGGE data and on intraseasonal timescales using the JMA 1-month EPS will start. TC genesis prediction over the western North Pacific during the 2009 and 2010 seasons will be investigated.
6.5The Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project in South-east Asia(SWFDP-SeA)
The SWFDP is designed as a series of sub-regional projects whose scope is to test the usefulness of NWP products produced by global and regional meteorological centers with the goal of improving severe weather forecasting and warning services in countries where sophisticated model outputs are currently not used. The Center participates in a sub-regional project in Southeast Asia (SWFDP-SeA) as the RegionalCenter for Tropical Cyclone / Typhoon Forecasting Support, whose role is to provide typhoon related products. The Center input the information to the Regional Subproject Management Team (RSMT) meeting (Ha Noi, 2011) to contribute the development of Regional Subproject Implementation Plan (RSIP). Besides, the Center provided the training materials on JMA ensemble prediction systems and the use of their products, including NWP-TCEFP products in the NWP-TCEFP Home page, to Training Workshop of SWFDP-SeA (Hong Kong, 2011). A feedback on the NWP-TCEFP Home page through SWFDP-SeA is expected from participating NMHSs in developing countries during the demonstration phase.
6.6Best-track Consolidation Meeting in Typhoon Committee
Typhoon Committee best track consolidation meeting was held in Hong Kong, China, December 2010. Typhoon Committee 43rd session (Jeju, 2011) and 44th session (Hangzhou, 2012) decided to follow up the recommendation of the meeting, by consolidatingthe operational procedures of tropical cyclone analysis for inclusion in the Typhoon Committee Operational Manual (TOM), exchange and compare the historical best-tack datasets, including CI numbers if available. Four designated contact points from JMA, CMA, HKO and JTWC are currently working on amendments of the TOM to include their operational procedures of tropical cyclone analysis into it and preparation for best-track datasets including digitization of CI numbers available in hardcopy only.
6.7Taskforce on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Analysis for Upgrading Tropical Depressions
Typhoon Committee 44th session (Hangzhou, 2012) recommended to establish a Taskforce on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Analysis for Upgrading Tropical Depressions (TD), to be led by Hong Kong, China as the coordinator, with members from China, Japan (RSMC), the Philippines, the Republic of Korea and other interested Typhoon Committee Members’. The primary objective is to eliminate or reduce the discrepancies experienced in the timing of upgrade through a scientific and objective approach. The Terms of Reference for the Taskforce are: (a) to study and identify the reasons behind any systematic biases in the timing of upgrading of TD in operational warnings issued by various warning centres; (b) to explore practical communication channels for sharing of data, observations or information to reduce discrepancies associated with data availability constraints; and (c) to report findings to Working Group of Meteorology, including recommendations for follow-up actions. At present, item (a) is being implemented by the taskforce members. From the RSMC’s point of view, real-time exchange of quality-assured observation data including their metadata, currently not on the GTS, among the members will be given priority to solve this issue.
6.8Coordination on the transboundary storms
Following the TCM-6 meeting whichreaffirmed the intent for all the tropical cyclone forecasts in abasin should be completed by the RSMC/TCWC responsible for that basin, the Center has operated the procedure based on the above discussion in issuance of TC advisories for TCs crossing boundaries since 22 February 2010.
6.9Definition of maximum sustained wind speed of tropical cyclones
Following the TCM-6 meeting, the Center incorporatedthe summary of theWMO Wind Averaging Study submitted by Systems Engineering Australia into the Typhoon Committee Operational Manual 2011 edition as”Guidelinesforconvertingbetweenvariouswindaveragingperiodsin tropical cyclone conditions”.
6.10Switchover of MTSAT Meteorological Mission
On 1 July 2010, the Center switched over imaging satellite operations to the Multi-functional Transport Satellite-2 (MTSAT-2, also known as Himawari-7), which is located at 145 degrees east, from MTSAT-1R (Himawari-6), which is located at 140 degrees east and now operates as an in-orbit stand-by for MTSAT-2.
6.11Migration of SAREP and RADOB to BUFR
The Center started disseminating SAREP in BUFR format via the GTS in November 2005 and RADOB in BUFR format in September 2006 in response to the WMO migration plan. As agreed by Typhoon Committee Members at the Typhoon Committee41st session (Chiang Mai, 2009), the Center stopped providing alphanumeric SAREP and RADOB data at the end of 2010. In order to assist SAREP users in their TC monitoring and forecasting, the Center started in June 2009 to post the results of not only regular Dvorak analysis as included in SAREP reports but also those of EDA on the NTP website.
6.12Implementation of Amendment 75 to ICAO Annex 3 concerning Tropical cyclone advisories for SIGMET
TC advisories for SIGMET (FKPQ30-55 RJTD) issued by the Center (TCAC Tokyo) has been changed according to the implementation of Amendment 75 since November 2010. Identification of unnamed cyclones; the term “NIL” was replaced by “NN”.
7.Plans for the future
7.1Objective Tropical Cyclone Satellite Analysis
To improve operational tropical cyclone analysis, the Center is currently developing objective tropical cyclone satellite analysis using MTSAT called “Cloud grid information objective Dvorak analysis (CLOUD)” and plans to introduce it into operation in 2015. The unique points of CLOUD are that it covers both EDA and Dvorak analysis and that it can be used with cloud grid information (CGI) – an objective cloud product operationally prepared by the Center since June 2005. The method has been provisionally verified and shown to have a level of accuracy comparable to those of manual EDA and Dvorak analysis. Objective microwave analyses for complementary intensity estimation are also to be introduced together with CLOUD.
7.2Tropical Cyclone Satellite Re-analysis
Responding to the recommendation of the Typhoon Committee best track consolidation meeting (Hong Kong, 2010) and the discussion in the IBTrACS, the Center started tropical cyclone satellite re-analysis for the period since 1981 in 2012.
7.3Tropical cyclone advisories for SIGMET in graphical format
As indicated in the Manual of Aeronautical Meteorological Practice (Doc 8896), the information on TCs in graphical format provided by TCAC Tokyo is shown in the JMA website ( In addition to this, based on the techniques utilizing the CGI for the analysis of existing CB areas, TCAC Tokyo plans to provide graphical Tropical cyclone advisories (TCAs) according to MODEL TCG in the Appendix 1 of ICAO Annex 3 in a few years.
7.4Tropical cyclone advisories in Common Alert Protocol (CAP)
The Common Alert Protocol (CAP) is an international standard format for emergencyalerting and public warning. The Center is developingdraft CAP profiles for TC advisories.
8.Publications
The Center issuesthe following publications both of which are available at RSMC Tokyo website.
1)Annual Report on the Activities of the RSMC Tokyo-TyphoonCenter (yearly basis,
2)RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon CenterTechnical Review (as-neededbasis,
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