Table 1. Extent of Future Land-Use Changes in Relationship with Landscape Matrix Characteristics

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Supplement. Assessment of landscape matrix. This assessment provides further information about future land-use changes, considering the characteristics of the landscape matrix where future land-use changes are projected to occur. For this, we separated between landscape matrices that have low vs. high human presence. Landscape matrices with high human presence are defined as 100-km2 areas with greater than 50% cover of human land-uses in 2001, whereas landscape matrices with low human presence are defined as those with less than 50% cover of human land uses in 2001. These results are shown in form of tables (Table 1) and maps (Figures 1 and 2).

Table 1. Extent of Future Land-use Changes in Relationship with Landscape Matrix Characteristics

Type of land-use change by scenario / Total area (million ha) / In landscape matrix with <50% cover of human land-uses (million ha) / In landscape matrix with ≥50% cover of human land-uses (million ha)
Business As Usual
Crop abandonment / 16.174 / 4.549 / 11.625
Pasture abandonment / 22.509 / 11.578 / 10.931
Urban expansion / 15.816 / 13.180 / 2.637
Crop expansion / 14.396 / 11.668 / 2.728
Pasture expansion / 11.803 / 9.898 / 1.905
Forest Incentives
Crop abandonment / 29.758 / 6.515 / 23.243
Pasture abandonment / 23.215 / 11.527 / 11.688
Urban expansion / 16.342 / 13.597 / 2.745
Crop expansion / 13.883 / 11.203 / 2.680
Pasture expansion / 11.936 / 10.185 / 1.751
Native Habitat
Crop abandonment / 17.140 / 4.814 / 12.326
Pasture abandonment / 24.302 / 12.292 / 12.010
Urban expansion / 15.449 / 12.796 / 2.654
Crop expansion / 9.982 / 8.436 / 1.546
Pasture expansion / 7.717 / 6.678 / 1.039
Urban Containment
Crop abandonment / 16.508 / 4.524 / 11.985
Pasture abandonment / 23.622 / 12.075 / 11.547
Urban expansion / 6.781 / 5.345 / 1.435
Crop expansion / 14.369 / 11.643 / 2.726
Pasture expansion / 11.495 / 9.635 / 1.860
High Crop Demand
Crop abandonment / 11.073 / 3.414 / 7.658
Pasture abandonment / 18.512 / 9.854 / 8.658
Urban expansion / 14.389 / 12.025 / 2.364
Crop expansion / 29.887 / 23.432 / 6.455
Pasture expansion / 9.136 / 7.734 / 1.402

Figure 1: Distribution of land-use expansion versus land abandonment across the conterminous U.S. within areas of high human presence, under different scenarios of future land-use change (Figure 1a). The bottom figure shows the main land-use change driver of land-use expansion and land abandonment respectively, calculated at the pixel level (Figure 1b). Only pixels with greater than 10% cover of total land-use expansion and/or abandonment are shown.

Figure 2: Distribution of land-use expansion versus land abandonment across the conterminous U.S. within areas of low human presence, under different scenarios of future land-use change (Figure 2a). The bottom figure shows the main land-use change driver of land-use expansion and land abandonment respectively, calculated at the pixel level (Figure 2b). Only pixels with greater than 10% cover of total land-use expansion and/or abandonment are shown.