ISDS 361A - 23 (Online)

Introduction to Probability and Statistics

Fall 2006

Schedule number: 14364

Common Body of Knowledge: This course provides a basic understanding of statistical methods and their application to problem solving.

Instructor: Dr. Z. Goldstein

Office Phone: (714) 278 - 2284

Department Phone: (714) 278 - 2221

Office: LH532

Meetings: Sat. 9 a.m., LH 317

Email address:

Website:

Learning supplements
  1. Text: Statistics for Management and Economics, 7th ed., by Gerald Keller. Publisher: Thompson.
    Comment: A soft cover reduced version of the text customized for Cal. State Fullerton is available in the bookstore and can be used.
  1. A generic CD (provided by your instructor), which includes:
  2. An animated and narrated text. For best view you need Windows XP. You need a soundcard installed on your computer with a player that can play WAV files [such as “MPLAYER” or “REAL”].
  3. ‘Review problems’ with solutions.

Comment: Power Point is needed.

  1. A Student CDwhich comes with the text.The CD includes(among others)data files (in Excel format), and “Data Analysis Plus” a statistical software.
  2. Homework assignments plus solutions (see the course home-page on the website).
  3. Power Point review files on the website, with solutions and explanations.

6.Review meetings (participation is optional but highly recommended). In these meetings we review the material covered by the next exam. We briefly discuss the concepts and solve sample problems.

7.Email.

Grading

  • Course average score formulas:Two possible formulas can be applied. The formula used will be determined by the student, as he/she decides to either turn in a final exam or not. See explanation below.

Option 1: Three non-cumulative midterms

Course average Score = .9*Exam average + .1*Projects.
Explanation:

(a)There are three midterms and a final exam.

(b)The final consists of three parts; each one corresponds to a midterm. Since a final takes 110 minutes, you’ll have about 33 minutes for each part. This is important as explained below.

(c)To pass a midterm you need to score at least 60%.

(d)If your score in a midterm is less than 60%, you need to re-take this portion of the final that corresponds to this midterm (you’ll have about 33 minutes for each part you decide to re-take).

(e)If you fail to take the final portion you need to take as defined in part‘d’ your score for the pertaining midterm will be dropped to ‘zero’.

(f)The higher score of the (i) midterm and (ii) the related portion of the final exam,is the one considered. The lower score is dropped.

(g)You may decide to repeat a midterm portion of the final even if you don’t have to; your final score then will over-write the previous score.

Grading chart:

A90 and above

B75 - 89

C60 - 74

D50 - 59

Fbelow 50

Exams

(1)Exams are closed-book!

(2)You may bring photocopies of the necessary tables in the book and

(3)You may bring any number of notes’sheets.

(4)You may bring a calculator to the exams.

(5)All answers and work are written in a blue book; SCAN-TRON is not needed.

(6)Some exam questions will require the use of Excel to help in performing lengthy calculation, and to execute statistical analysis.Much attention will be given to the interpretation of the computational results.

(7)Exams take place at the computer labLH 317, 9a.m.

Optional Meetings (LH 317, Saturdays, 9 a.m.)

Meeting Dates / Exam Dates
Jan. 20 (Mandatory)
Feb 3
Feb 17
Feb 24
March 10
March 24
April 7
April 21
May 5
Final: May 12
Assignments
  • Homework assignments are listed on the website. Go to “Course Material” then “Assignments”.
  • Assignments will be discussed in class as needed.
  • Assignments are not graded, but it is imperative that you do your homework assignment in timely manner.
Computer Package

Many of the assignment problems require the use of Excel (available in the school lab).

Instructions for using Excel appear in each chapter of your textbook as appropriate. Also, written instruction for using Excel can be found in the Review problems folder on the CD. Two statistical modules will be used from within excel:

(2)Data Analysis – an integral Add-In provided by Microsoft.

(3)Data Analysis Plus –An Add In provided by the text publisher. To install this software follow the instructions on the Student CD that comes with the textbook. More info:

(i)After installation Data Analysis Plus is found in the ‘Tools’ menu.[For your information, Data Analysis Plus is a file called STATS.xls, that is placed inside a folder called XLstart on your computer by the setup program]. This folder normally appears in Microsoft Office/Excel. The setup program on the CD will find it and ask for your approval before installation.

(ii)You can install the Excel data files used for your homework assignments are too. Typically, these files carry the prefix ‘Xr’ (for exercise) followed by the problem number. After installation is complete you’ll find them in a folder called Keller 7 (usually located on the “C” drive).

Instructor’s comments

When you take this course online, equip yourself with a lot of self-discipline and more than just a little dedication. You should study on daily basis, and solve all the assignment problems (more is better!). Use the review files provided on the website and on the instructor’s CD; don’t turn to the solutions provided before you make the effort to solve problems yourself. This way you’ll test yourunderstanding and improve your learning experience.

The main purpose of the degree program at the College of Business & Economics (College) at Cal State Fullerton is to provide you with the knowledge and skills that prepare you for a successful career in business. In order to assist us in achieving this goal, we will use a number of assessment tools to track your progress throughout the College curriculum. Please expect to participate in College assessment activities in several of your courses while at CSU, Fullerton. As you do so, you will assist us in identifying our program’s strengths and weaknesses as well as areas for potential improvement. In other words, you are making an important investment in the value of your degree.

Tentative course outline

Complete by

Week……TopicReading

1Descriptive Statistics2.1 – 2.4, 4.1, 4.2, 4.4

3Probability6.1 – 6.4

4Discrete Probability Distribution7.1

Binomial Distribution 7.4

Continuous Density Function8.1

Normal Distribution8.2

5Exam 1

6Sampling distributions9.1 – 9.4

7Introduction to Estimation10.1 – 10.3

8Introduction to Hypothesis testing11.1 – 11.4

10Exam 2
10Inference about a population12.1 – 12.3
12Simple linear regression17.1 – 17.4, 17.6

14Multiple linear regression18.1 – 18.2

14,15Regression – nominal variables19.2

15Goodness of Fit tests16.1 – 16.3

15Exam 3

16Final Exam (if selected)