How to make the world aware of that the party is over?
Kjell Aleklett
Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group
Uppsala University, Box 535, SE-751 21 Uppsala, Sweden
A Colorful Analogy
We have all been enjoying the greatest party the World has ever seen: the great oil party. Few of us have realized that it was a party, still less that it is now reaching its climax as the champagne corks pop on all sides. After the climax comes the decline when we have to sober up and face the fact that the party is coming to an end
To give a sense of proportion, we can indeed compare the oil party with a champagne party and think in terms of how much is drunk. Let us imagine that one champagne bottle is equivalent to 100 thousand million barrels of oil: by all means a magnum. Let us also imagine that it is a vintage champagne that cannot be replaced. The bartender was not quite sure how many bottles were in the case, but his experience told him that there were probably about eighteen, and he knew that there were probably another two hidden away in the refrigerator. We have now drunk about nine of them, meaning that by closing time, we will have consumed a total of twenty.
As in all parties, some people drink more than others. There are some heavy drinkers dressed for the party in cowboy kit, who stand a little apart. The other guests are amazed at their capacity to consume the precious liquid and begin to fear that that they may be taking more than their fair share.
The remaining bottles have different labels. Five came from vineyards in the Middle East (one with the Iraq label); one from the former Soviet Union; one from Africa; one from Europe and Asia combined; but the bottle with US label is now only a quarter full, having been preferred by the hard drinkers. Of the two remaining bottles in the refrigerator, one has a Middle East label, while the other contains the dregs from all the other vineyards put together.
At its climax, the party consumes a quarter of a bottle a year, but as it begins to close more and more of the guests begin to realize that they will have to sober up and return to a daily life, tilling the land in some sustainable fashion to feed their families