Appendix 1
Climate-Related Problems in South and Southeast Asia
INDONESIA
Indramayu District
Normal year
Monsoon starts in the first week of October. Flooding, which can occur in any year (including El Nino years), is normally from the last week of January to mid-February. In mid-May, the dry season begins, during which there are rains beginning in June from a local system not connected with the SW monsoon.
· Season 1: Farmers in Irrigation Schedules (IS) 1, 2 and 3: planting in October with the beginning of the monsoon, using 120-day rice cultivar; harvest before floods which occur in late January
· Season 2: Farmers in IS 1, 2 and 3: planting in second week of March, in anticipation of rains; harvest in August.
· Season 3: Farmers in IS 1: Plant a third crop. Farmers in IS 2 with access to supplementary well water may also plant. Highly risky for farmers in Irrigation Schedule 3.
Climate problems
· Season 1: if the monsoon begins later than normal in October, two problems may arise:
o 1) farmers must plant multiple times due to false rains (that are not sustained);
o 2) delayed planting using 120-day cultivar leads to harvest time coinciding with floods in late Jan/early Feb.
Farmers on IS 1 will not experience these problems since they normally do not have to delay planting (not dependent on rain fall); those on IS 2 will experience problems in severe El Nino years; farmers in IS 3 areas will have problems in any drought year.
· Season 2: if the dry season begins early, in the last week of March or the first week of April, then crops the farmers planted in the second week of March may not survive. During El Nino years, there is on average less rainfall from April through August, and longer dry spells. Farmers on IS1 will not experience these problems, but those on IS 2 may, while IS3 farmers will have problems.
Nusa Tenggara Timur
Normal year
Monsoon begins in the last week of October/first week of November, and ends in the second week of March. Farmers plant a single crop of (upland) maize which is broadcast in mid-December, and harvest in mid- to late February (95-day growing season). Farmers wait until December to begin planting because the soil is very hard, and it needs soaking from the rains. It It is possible to plant fodder crop in a second season (March – May) in normal years and definitely in La Nina years.
Climate problems
Monsoon may be delayed, arriving only in January or February due to the behavior of the ITCZ. Farmers broadcast seeds (on false rains) and number of time only to lose them. In a strong El Nino year, rains are delayed and are below normal, so even fodder is not possible to plant, since it takes 65 days. In La Nina years, there is a higher probability of early onset of rains beginning in the last week of October. Currently, they do not take advantage of this, but with a forecast in late July/early August, they could begin planting in mid-September, harvest in January, and then begin a new crop in January.
Current responses
In El Nino years, people migrate to Flores City and Kupang, as well as harvest non-timber forest products. The government provides food, food for work, and seeds for the next crop during El Nino years. Even in normal years, the government must bring and distribute food from outside the province (20-25 thousand tons per year). In El Nino years, 50-55 thousand tons is necessary. In El Nino years, the government would require about 4 months lead time to increase food distribution, since they must import the food. CARE plays a role in this, such as with seed distribution.
Bali (provincial-level water systems)
Normal year
Rains begin in the second week of October, and last until the first week of April. Three rice crops are grown per year, generally:
· October through January (120 days)
· February through July (120 days)
· July through October (90 days, only in 20-25% of the area)
Currently, water in subaks is allocated based on observed amounts of water. Use of subaks for rice-growing may not be allowed in some years based on observed drops in rainfall. The allocation of water is managed by the Water Resources Department at the provincial level. They allocate water to the various users in the watersheds at the district level. Subaks coordinate water use and distribution only within watersheds.
Climate problems
Subaks, in addition to providing water for agriculture are also the source of water for municipalities and for rural drinking water. In low rainfall years (including El Nino years plus some non-El Nino years) there may not be enough water in some watersheds. In eastern Bali in El Nino years, there is no rain in the dry season (May through September). They expect some rains beyond April, but when these do not arrive, the dry season crop is threatened, and there is less water for municipal use.
Forecast timing
For the wet season, a forecast is needed in July; for the dry season, it should come in January or February.
PHILIPPINES
Iloilo
Normal year
SW monsoon rains begin in mid-May, and end in November. October is typhoon season, and lowland areas experience flooding. The driest part of year is March.
Not assured of irrigation (60%):
· Season 1: start preparations in April, transplant seedlings the first week of June; harvest in Aug/Sept.
· Season 2: land preparation in October, harvest in second week of January
Assured of irrigation (40%):
· Season 1: set irrigation schedule in March; plant seedlings in fields in last week of April; harvest in late June/early July (120 days after transplanting)
· Season 2: plant in October, harvest in Feb.
Climate problems
Not assured of irrigation
In El Nino years, the monsoon is delayed and there are no typhoons. In this case, seedling preparation is affected and farmers cannot prepare the land, sometimes until July. Crop harvesting then goes into October, when flooding may destroy crops. In non-flooding years, it is risky to plant crops in November, since the crops may not have water later on, especially if there is no rain in March.
Late flooding is another problem. If flooding extends beyond November, then it is too late to re-plant the second crop.
Assured of irrigation
Tail end irrigated farmers may lose the second crop in a dry year. According to farmers, every five years there has been an insufficient supply of irrigation water. Rainfall levels in October are critical; if planting is delayed then, there may be insufficient irrigation water at the end of the second season. Flooding during La Nina years in Sept/Oct. can also cause problems for irrigated farmers.
Forecast timing
The wet season forecast is needed in April; the dry season forecast should come in August.
Angat
Normal year
The rains from the SW monsoon begin in May, and end in early September. For the NE monsoon, rains begin in October and end in January or February. Typhoon season is July/August, and also October and November. October-December rains account for 46% of Angat inflow, 50% of which is due to typhoons. Outside of the monsoon season, 38% of rainfall is due to typhoons. Other sources of rain are cold fronts and easterlies. Water allocation decisions are currently made in April using observed data. The planting seasons for irrigated paddy in the Bulacan province are:
· Season 1: transplanting to fields begins in late April/early May, and harvest occurs in the last week of August/early September.
· Season 2: planting in October/November, harvesting in March.
· Season 3: planting in February, harvest in early May (10,000 hectares)
Rainwater contributes 30% of water necessary for land preparation (water from Angat is not sufficient).
Climate problems
If there is a delay in the SW monsoon, planting must be delayed since land preparation is not complete. In this case, farmers who go in for a third crop (in about 10,000 hectares) will lose it. If there is a more prolonged drought, such as in extreme El Nino years, the whole system collapses due to the dependence on rainwater for land preparation.
Forecast timing
The optimal forecast time is November or December for the SW monsoon. If they know that May through September rainfall will be delayed or below normal, they can decide to store more water. If additional rainfall is expected in October through December, then a forecast in July/August would enable them to decide to spill more water so that there is lower water storage in the reservoir in those months.
VIETNAM
Quang Tri
Normal year
Rains from the NE monsoon begin in September and August and lead to floods through November and December every year. Rains also occur in April/May due to freak SW monsoon activity (Quang Tri is in the rainshadow for the SW monsoon), and local weather systems. Typhoon season is September through November.
For lowland farmers, there are two crop seasons (at other times, lotus is grown when there is lots of water):
· Season 1: planting in December, harvesting in the first week of May.
· Season 2: planting in late May, harvesting in August. This is a risky crop, since the water availability is uncertain.
In the highlands, there is sedentary rice farming near water bodies, cassava through slash-and-burn, and coffee at the highest altitudes.
Climate problems
In the lowlands:
In El Nino years, there may be lower than normal rainfall in the NE monsoon (Sept-Nov) period. There is still water available for planting the first crop in December, so farmers plant on time. The main problem is the lack of water in March and April just before harvesting in May. Most areas are irrigated from small/medium-sized reservoirs, or from water in ponds, which will have less water in them in El Nino years. Near the coast, water salinity is a big problem during drought years, since it becomes too salty to use for irrigation. The first crop in some upland areas may experience problems with low temperatures/frost in January/early February; periods of 3-5 days with less than 13 degrees C are bad for the crop. Finally, hot winds from Laos and Cambodia in May can harm the rice crop when it is harvested late.
The second crop, planted in late May, is generally more risky because water availability will be less. Some freak rains are expected due to the SW monsoon in normal years, but these fail in El Nino years. In addition, during El Nino years there is the possibility of early onset of typhoon season, which will destroy crops in August. In La Nina years, typhoons may also come early.
In the highlands:
Late onset of rains in the NE monsoon causes problems for fire management in the slash and burn areas. The SW monsoon may also have a higher than normal rainfall in August/September, and in November there may be cyclones. Too much rainfall can ruin the cassava crop, and can also cause landslides and erosion problems.
Forecast timing
A forecast is needed for the NE monsoon in September regarding the status of upcoming floods. If floods are expected to be long, then farmers can plant floating rice. If floods are not expected to last long, they can plant longer duration crops, which have a greater yield, or can plant a vegetable crop followed by a short duration crop. In the second season, a forecast is needed in March for the onset of the typhoon season.
Can Tho
Normal year
Rains from the SW monsoon begin in May, and end in October/November. Peak time for flooding is in Aug-Sept (six weeks). There is no NE monsoon here, and typhoons occur only every 20-30 years. The area depends upon rainfall and water from the Mekong. There are two seasons:
· Season 1: plant in early May, and harvest in August (flooding is necessary then)
· Season 2: planting in December, harvest in March.
Also, in the highlands vegetables are grown September through November.
Climate problems
Late onset of rains can delay planting in the first season. This means that high floods in Aug/Sept can destroy the plants. Also, floods could come early, which would have a similar effect unless planting was done earlier than normal.
For the second season, the basic problem is that floods if prolonged to December, lead to delays in planting. This would mean that crops need to survive the dry season in March/April. In these months, water must be obtained from the Mekong, which is controlled by rain and upstream use of water.
The level of water in both seasons is due to a combination of two factors: a) rainfall in the region and the Mekong watershed; b) water use upstream in the Mekong.
Forecast timing
April is a good time for a forecast, since by May farmers should know about upcoming rains/flooding so they can delay planting and make use of auxiliary systems, or start planting early so they can harvest before the flooding comes.
5 DRAFT