November 16, 2007 Letter from Mary Biggs to Scott Ruhland, Planning Dept., City of Fremont
References:
Notice of Preparation, Patterson Ranch Development Plan Program EIR www.ci.fremont.ca.us/Construction/EnvironmentalDocuments/
Item E.1 = Site 1
Location = East of Ardenwood Blvd., South of Alameda Flood Control Channel
“Table 1 = 800 units of housing on 73.1 acres (368 Town homes, 196 Garden homes, 120 Zero Lot Line homes, 116 50 X 80 SFD lots)”
Item E.2 = Site 2
Location = West of Ardenwood Blvd, South of Alameda Flood Control Channel
“10 acres for an elementary school with projected capacity of 600 – 840 students
15 to 25 acres for a junior high school with projected capacity of 900 – 1200 students”
Item E.6
“Because all sites or portions of all sites in the project area are located within a flood hazard zone, the building pad elevations associated with the various elements of the plan would be raised to remove areas from the zone. Approximately 18,000 cubic yards would be used to increase the site elevations on the 101-acre Site 1 to remove areas from the flood hazard zone. Excavation of the new 4200 foot long bio-channel on Site 4 and creation of the Community Park on Site 5 would generate approximately 130,000 cubic yards of fill which would be redistributed on-site to raise elevation of the Spiritual Facility Site 3 and School Site 2 to remove them from the flood hazard zone.”
USGS Bay Area Earthquake Probabilities, Liquefaction, Ground Shaking Intensity Maps:
“Regional Aggregate Probability of a 6.7 Magnitude or Greater Earthquake Before 2030 = 70%”
“Hayward - Rodgers Creek Fault has the highest probability of all the Bay Area Faults”
http://geopubs.wr.usgs.gov/open-file/of99-517/#table1
http://geomaps.wr.usgs.gov/sfgeo/liquefaction/image_pages/shaking_fig14.html
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/wg02/media/WS_Fig_5.pdf
Patterson Ranch Development area is rated the highest level of shaking intensity “Modified Mercalli Intensity rating = X”
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/maps , liquefaction hazards:
“When the ground liquefies, it may lose its ability to support buildings and other structures. Liquefaction during large earthquakes commonly disrupts pipelines and road networks and also may cause buildings to settle and move down slope or toward stream banks. Potentially hazardous areas include those along some of the larger streams, which produce loose young soils that are particularly susceptible to liquefaction ...... Many regions of man-made fill liquefied in 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake. The Marina District built on fill in San Francisco suffered some of the worst damage in 1989.”
Automatic Gas Shut-off Valves
http://www.pge.com/safety/prepare_natural_disasters/earthquakes/gas_shutoff_devices/index.html
1
FEMA (data source) projected casualties:
Fremont Fire Department Community Emergency Response Team Student Manual 2006, p. 88
Event: Hayward Fault magnitude 7.4 earthquake, projected Bay Area casualties
Event Time / Dead / Hospitalized
2:30 AM / 3,000 / 13,000
2:00 PM / 8,000 / 30,000
4:30 PM / 7,000 / 27,000
Grid References, 2005 Fremont-Union City AAA Map:
All Access Points to Patterson Ranch Development Area are by Bridges only:
E3 = Paseo Padre Parkway Bridge over train tracks (between Deep Creek Rd. and Tupelo)
G1 = Paseo Padre Parkway Bridge over Hwy 84
F3 = Hwy 84 Bridge over Newark/Ardenwood Blvd.
G1 = Dumbarton Bridge / Dumbarton Bridge Toll gates
E2 = Ardenwood Blvd. Bridge over Alameda Flood Control Channel
F2 = Ardenwood Blvd. Bridge over train tracks (near Ardenwood Historic Farm)
Nearest Emergency Response to Patterson Ranch Development Area:
E3 = Fremont Fire Station 10 – must cross Paseo Padre Parkway train overpass to reach the area
E2 = Union City Fire Station 4 – must cross Ardenwood Blvd. bridge over channel to reach the area
Assumption: All new buildings in Fremont are built to most current earthquake codes.
Dear Mr. Ruhland,
Referencing the information above, your response to the questions below is appreciated. I attended the October 1, 2007 General Plan Meeting at Ardenwood Elementary School and the October 9, 2007 City Council Meeting. At both meetings I spoke in regards to public safety and building on lands in the North Plain Region that are designated by the USGS as areas subject to liquefaction. Due to commitments involving my three sons, I was unable to attend the November 5, 2007 and November 13, 2007 meetings regarding the Patterson Ranch Development Plan.
1. Will the City of Fremont make a public disclosure to the homebuyers regarding the fact that dwellings built on Site 1 are built on fill added to land the USGS already classified as highly prone to liquefaction and intense shaking?
Per the USGS maps, the homes and schools will be built on land that is subject to the highest intensity of shaking, and high probability of liquefaction. Per the development plan, Item E.6, the homes and school buildings will also be constructed on fill added to the liquefaction prone land so the structures can be raised above flood level.
2. Will the Fremont Unified School District make a public disclosure to school parents that the schools built on Site 2 are built on fill added to land the USGS already classified as highly prone to liquefaction and intense shaking?
2
3. Will all structures built in the Patterson Ranch Development be fitted with automatic gas shut-off valves?
4. What are the projected casualties on School Site 2 if a significant earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurs during school hours? What are the projected casualties on Site 1 if a significant earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurs during hours of maximum residential occupancy?
5. Have the above-listed bridges and overpasses, which provide the only access to the development area, been recently inspected by government authorities? Have they all been retrofitted for earthquake? What is the probability that any one of these bridges / overpasses will be impassible due to a significant earthquake on the Hayward Fault? Will the heavy construction equipment traveling in and out to develop this area, compromise the integrity of any of the bridges leading into the area?
6. Since Fremont Fire Station 8 was moved to its new location on Fremont Blvd. across from the Brookvale Shopping Center and south of Decoto Road, Fremont Fire Station 10 now has a larger response zone in North Fremont. Since no plans for a new fire station are included in the Patterson Ranch Development plan, is Fremont Fire Station 10 going to be responsible for responding to all emergency calls in the new development area? Does Fremont Fire Department feel that it can maintain its current response times to all emergencies north of Decoto Road once this new development is added?
7. How many engine units and personnel typically respond to suppress a large fire in a 368 Town home and 120 unit zero-lot lined complex? Is Fremont Fire Department concerned about a fire starting after an earthquake that they can’t suppress in such a densely built area, and possibly an area where water mains will rupture and bridge access will collapse?
As I explained to City Council on October 9, 2007, even though these new units will be built to current earthquake code, the structures will still be built on fill and still be built on land already subject to liquefaction. Even if the structures withstand an earthquake, the intense shaking and loose soils will “commonly disrupt” gas and water mains, and down electrical wires. As history demonstrated in the collapse of the San Francisco Marina District in the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, threatening fires started and were very difficult to suppress because of broken water mains. In addition the North Plain region experiences regular strong southeasterly winds off the Bay that could further hinder Fremont Fire Department’s ability to fight a fire in such a densely built area.
8. Is it safer to build just churches & one story homes on larger lots with defensible space in this region, to minimize the potential loss of life and property?
3
9. I am aware that the City has to meet new housing requirements in order to receive certain funding from the State of CA. Has Fremont City Leadership considered developing a coalition comprised of Milpitas, Newark, Union City, Hayward and San Leandro City Leaders that can challenge state level authorities regarding city funding sources based on new housing requirements, proposing that additional high density housing built along the Hayward Fault will only increase above listed FEMA casualty numbers and pose strain on emergency response systems and public safety?
Though the Measure L Utility Tax did not pass last Nov. 2006, the Fremont public has demonstrated its commitment to public safety through volunteer work and through voting in past elections, approving local bond measures which helped finance the retrofit and construction of new fire station buildings, a new city maintenance yard, new police facilities, retrofit and repairs of FUSD school buildings, as well as a paramedic supplement tax to keep a paramedic on every fire truck in Fremont.
Specifically, in the North Plain and Ardenwood area (everything north of Hwy 84 and Decoto Road), over the past ten years, 200+ citizens have taken Community Emergency Response Training and are part of the 1300 member CERT program sponsored by Fremont Fire Department. These volunteers participate in disaster drills on a regular basis and are prepared to respond to their community in times of need. 20+ members of this Ardenwood CERT group have also earned their FCC Amateur Radio License and participate in regular ham radio drills communicating disaster drill scenario field information from high risk earthquake locations in North Fremont (such as bridge overpasses and apartment complexes) to Fremont Fire Station 10. From Fire Station 10, Ardenwood Radio Team Leaders forward information via Packet Radio to the EOC located at Fremont City Hall.
North Fremont PTA Parent volunteers have stepped forward and spent many hours helping Forest Park Elementary, Ardenwood Elementary, Warwick Elementary, Thornton Junior High and American High School be prepared for disasters, working closely with those schools’ administrators, raising funds for disaster supplies, purchasing, stocking and maintaining disaster supplies for both students and faculty.
These citizens realize, accept and are prepared for the danger the Hayward Fault poses. My hope is that Fremont City Council and Management will come to the same realization and acceptance, and in turn, act upon their commitment to public safety choosing a development plan for the Patterson Ranch area that minimizes the potential casualties and property damage.
Thank you for your time, attention and response,
Mary Biggs
, 510-299-5171 cell
Assistant District Coordinator for the Ardenwood Community Emergency Response Team
Fremont Fire Dept. CERT Volunteer since 1995
KF6GAJ, FCC General Class, Fremont Amateur Radio Emergency Services (ARES) member
Safety Chairperson for Warwick Elementary School
North Fremont homeowner since August 1989
4