Population change
in Blackburn with Darwen
Corporate research joint intelligence – July 2011
Background
This report aims to summarise issues identified in the supporting evidence document. It takes data from administrative sources and official statistics, with the aim of better quantifying population turn over levels, understanding characteristics and identifying areas for further work.
Key points
Evidence suggests that whilst there are different characteristics of people moving in and out of the borough, population turnover or churn is focused amongst deprived communities.
Whilst people who are for example unemployed, permanently sick or disabled or children in receipt of free school meals move into the borough – there are greater proportions of people with such characteristics moving out of the borough.
· The majority of moves are within the borough itself
· The population of the borough has remained relatively stable because net natural population increase is cancelled out by the net outflow of people through internal migration
· Around half of the internal (within the UK) moves into and out of the borough are in the 15 to 34 age range
· The local authorities that have experienced the largest number of moves to and from the borough are clustered in the central area of the North West
· There are specific areas of the borough that experience greater levels of population turn over
· A range of issues, including housing, personal and environmental, appear to influence population turnover. There is not one predominant issue
· The age profiles of people moving into and out of the neighbouring authorities of Hyndburn, Bolton and Ribble Valley differ
· The economic status of people moving into and out of the borough from Hyndburn, Bolton and Ribble Valley differ
· There is some evidence from the analysis of the movement of children out of the borough’s schools that families with children moving out of the borough are more likely to be of White/UK heritage; however
· Analysis of the movement of children into and out from the borough suggests that those moving in and moving out come from a similar social background.
· Pulling together a composite picture from the various data sources it appears that most movement in and out of the borough is focused on poorer parts of the borough and poorer residents. It is also local in nature.
Summary
The majority of moves are within the borough itself
Data from the 2001 Census and more recently the 2008 Housing Needs Survey (HNS) identified a large number of moves within the borough. In the 2001 Census 11,064 people had moved home within the year prior to the census, moving from one area to another (3,829 people moved into the borough 4,119 people moved out of the borough). The HNS estimated that of the households currently living in the borough who had moved over the last two years, 73% had previously lived elsewhere in the borough.
The population of the borough has remained relatively stable because net natural population increase is cancelled out by the net outflow of people through internal migration
Over the last few years the population of Blackburn with Darwen has remained relatively stable. However, this stability disguises population change in the borough. Analysis of the mid year population estimates components of change identifies that a net increase through natural change (more births than deaths) is compensating for the net outflow of residents through internal (within the UK) migration. There is a small net inflow of people through international migration.
Net change in internal, international migration, natural change and other changes from Mid Year Population Estimates, components of change tables (data prior to 2008 estimates not revised)
(Data rounded to the nearest 10)
Around half of the internal (within the UK) moves into and out of the borough are in the 15 to 34 age range
The 15 to 34 age range accounts for half of the moves out and moves into the borough. Between 2008 and 2009 it is estimated that 2,200 people in this age band moved into the borough, 2,700 moved out. The number of people moving out exceeds the number moving in for all age bands, except the 20 to 24 year age group. There was a small net inflow of people in this age group (around 100) which the data suggests comprises more females than males.
Total flows of people to and from Blackburn with Darwen in five year age bands (mid year 2008 to mid year 2009)
(Data rounded to the nearest 100)
The local authorities that have experienced the largest number of moves to and from the borough are clustered in the central area of the North West
By mapping the flows to and from local authorities it is highlighted that the majority of moves to and from the borough are from a central area of the North West region. The areas with the largest number of moves to and from the borough are Hyndburn, Bolton and Ribble Valley. Between 2008 and 2009 the borough saw a small net inflow of residents from Hyndburn (+60) and net outflows to Bolton (-70) and Ribble Valley (-150).
Of the moves out of the borough further than the North West, the areas with the largest number of moves appear to be larger university cities; Leeds, Sheffield, Nottingham, Leicester and Birmingham.
There are specific areas of the borough that experience greater levels of population turn over
Official statistics estimating population turn over at middle super output area (msoa)[1] identified that some areas that experienced greater levels of population turn over. The msoa covering Mill Hill and the north of Ewood ward along with two msoas covering most of Sudell and central Darwen saw the greatest levels of moves in and out of the borough. However, these areas saw only small net increases in population. Compared to msoas in Pennine Lancashire, these areas saw the largest inflows per thousand people and two msoas were also in the top six of areas with the highest outflows. Msoas in Burnley and Pendle saw larger flows out.
Data from the electoral register highlighting numbers of new electors and tenant turnover from Twin Valley Homes also assist in identifying areas of turnover for smaller geographical areas. The electoral register data identified parts of Mill Hill, Wensley Fold, Ewood, Queens Park and central Darwen as experiencing the highest numbers of new registrations. Social rented accommodation with the highest turnover was found in the wards of Wensley Fold, Higher Croft, Shear Brow, Audley / Shadsworth with Whitebirk and Roe Lee / Little Harwood in Blackburn and Earcroft and Sudell in Darwen. Data from the pupil level annual school census identified that Shadsworth with Whitebirk and Meadowhead saw the largest numbers of moves out of the borough. Net inflows of pupils were in a range of areas throughout the borough, some in the least deprived; some in the most deprived areas.
A number of these areas are similar in all datasets (Mill Hill, Ewood, Wensley Fold, Shadsworth with Whitebirk, Sudell and central Darwen) these areas are amongst the most deprived in the borough.
A range of issues, including housing, personal and environmental, appear to influence population turnover. There is not one predominant issue
Whilst population turnover in rented accommodation is significantly greater than other tenures in the borough, the 2008 Housing Needs Survey (HNS) highlighted that people want to move house for a number of reasons.
Population turnover was greatest in the private rented sector. The HNS estimated that turnover in the private rented sector was 32%, compared to only 6% in the owner occupied sector and 10% in the social rented sector. Additionally, turnover was higher in smaller properties. There were found to be two distinct characteristics of private renters, those on benefits aspiring to move to social rented accommodation and those renting who aspire to own their own home. Housing tenure is likely to be a contributing factor to population turn-over in the borough.
Environmental and personal issues are also an influence, with the top reasons for moving into the borough being given as ‘to live independently’ (22%) and to move closer to friends and family (19%). For moves within the borough the top two reasons were to move to a better environment (22%) and because their previous home was too small (21%).
The top two reasons given for wanting to move home, but remain in the borough were given as their current home being too small (34%) and wanting to move to a better environment (32%). People looking to move out of the borough wanted to move to a better environment (50%) and to move to a safer area (26%).
The age profiles of people moving into and out of the neighbouring authorities of Hyndburn, Bolton and Ribble Valley differ
The age profile of movers in and out to Hyndburn is very similar and, with the exception of the 45 to 64 age range, all broad age ranges see a net inflow of residents from Hyndburn. The age profile of movers to and from Hyndburn is relatively young as only around a fifth of both are aged 45 and over.
Bolton sees a net outflow of residents predominantly in the 0 to 15 and 25 to 44 age ranges, which can be interpreted as families with children. There is a small net inflow (+10) of people in the 45 to 64 age range.
For Ribble Valley, there is a small net inflow of people in the 16 to 24 age range, but net outflows from the other ages.
Just under a fifth of moves into Blackburn with Darwen are aged 45 and over, compared to over a third of moves out. Unlike Bolton which appears to attract predominantly families from the borough, Ribble Valley sees moves from Blackburn with Darwen for almost all age ranges, suggesting moves out of the borough by families and older people.
Ward level data from the 2001 Census identified that moves to and from Bolton generally occurred in the south of the borough and moves to and from Ribble Valley in the north of the borough. Moves between Hyndburn and the borough were more widely spread throughout the borough.
Moves into and out of the borough by broad age range, for local authorities seeing the greatest number of moves (mid year 2008 to mid year 2009)
(Data rounded to the nearest 10)
The economic status of people moving into and out of the borough from Hyndburn, Bolton and Ribble Valley differs
Although rather dated, the 2001 Census provides a range of information on the characteristics of people aged 16 to 74 who have moved into and out of the borough. Focusing specifically on the three local authorities that Blackburn with Darwen has the largest numbers of moves to and from identifies that they have different characteristics. For Bolton and Ribble Valley there were a greater proportion of people working full time (employees and self employed) moving into the borough, compared to those moving out. A greater proportion of retired people moved out to Ribble Valley than moved in. Slightly more people who were working full time moved out of the borough to Hyndburn than moved in (49.2% moving in, 51.7% moving out). However, a greater proportion of sick and permanently disabled and unemployed people moved out of Blackburn than moved in from Hyndburn (sick or permanently disabled: 7.9% moving in, 11.2% moving out. Unemployed 4.2% moved in from Hyndburn, 6.6% moved out).
Of the moves within the borough, only two fifths (40.5%) were working full time, 7.1% were unemployed, 12.6% looked after home or family full time and 9.1% were permanently sick or disabled. This could be again seen as reflecting the wider picture of movement being focused on particular areas of the borough – generally those with high proportions of rented property, which again will be more likely to have poorer occupiers, who are in turn more likely to experience ill-health.
Analysis of the movement of children into and out from the borough suggests that those moving in and moving out come from a relatively similar social background
An analysis was undertaken of the school census for all Blackburn with Darwen schools – comparing the children present over the past three years and looking at the make-up of the children who have moved into, moved out of or moved schools within the borough. Key findings of the analysis were as follows:
o Significantly more children left the borough than entered the borough
o A lower proportion of the children entering the borough were eligible for free school meals, than those who left, or moved schools.
o A higher proportion of those children leaving the borough were of White/UK ethnicity
o A higher proportion of those leaving the borough had additional needs
o The same areas of the borough experience high proportions of children leaving, arriving and moving
Analysis of school population transience
Out / In / Moved schools / School Population as a wholeNumber / 767 / 353 / 322 / -
Free School Meal eligible / 37% / 30% / 40% / 24%
Boys / 51% / 52% / 55% / 52%
White UK / 61% / 44% / 61% / 56%
BME / 30% / 39% / 33% / 40%
SEN High / 17% / 12% / 11% / 11%
SEN low / 17% / 11% / 20% / 16%
IMD group - cumulative %
Bottom 10% / 47% / 49% / 44% / 45%
Bottom Third / 78% / 78% / 77% / 73%
Top 50% / 18% / 12% / 15% / 19%
Top 25% / 7% / 6% / 4% / 7%
Next steps
Once raw data is received, a more detailed analysis of the Housing Needs Survey is planned to investigate whether there are specific reasons given for wanting to move out of areas with high population turn over.
To further investigate these issues with service areas e.g. housing provision, focussing on qualitative data to assess the extent and impact of population turn over.
To follow up the use of ‘resident journeys’ as an in-depth tool to examine the experience of residents living in high churn areas (possible partnership with CLES).
Acknowledgements and further information
Anil Mehta – Customer Insight Manager: Twin Valley Homes
Robert Arrowsmith – Strategic Manager – Statutory and Regulatory: Families, Health and Wellbeing
For further information please contact:
Elise Carroll - Research and Intelligence Advisor
Corporate Research Joint Intelligence
3rd Floor Old Town Hall
01254 585693
Where applicable: Office for National Statistics licensed under the Open Government Licence v.1.0.
[1] There are 18 msoas in the borough. Msoas have an average population of 7,200.