Appendix S2. Complete statistical tables giving results of spatial lag modelsa

Table S2-1. Spatial lag model results on factors associated with the proportion of gypsy moth larvae killed by Entomophaga maimaiga (log10[proportion killed] + 1).

Variable / Estimate / SE / t value / P
Intercept / 3.08 × 10-2 / 2.10 × 10-1 / 0.146 / 0.884
Spatial lag / 3.27 × 10-1 / 6.72 × 10-2 / 4.866 / <0.001
Resting spore density / -1.31 × 10-5 / 1.64 × 10-5 / -0.798 / 0.430
Egg mass density / 5.38 × 10-6 / 2.14 × 10-6 / 2.514 / 0.016
Pmar / -1.86 × 10-3 / 8.53 × 10-4 / -2.177 / 0.035
Papr / 2.60 × 10-4 / 6.33 × 10-4 / 0.411 / 0.683
Pmay / 1.26 × 10-3 / 6.08 × 10-4 / 2.067 / 0.045
Pjun / -7.92 × 10-4 / 6.82 × 10-4 / -1.161 / 0.252
Tempmax / -2.86 × 10-3 / 9.74 × 10-3 / -0.294 / 0.771
AWS / -3.42 × 10-3 / 1.18 × 10-2 / -0.29 / 0.773
Host area / -7.92 × 10-4 / 3.80 × 10-3 / -0.208 / 0.836
Slope / -7.34 × 10-4 / 1.77 × 10-3 / -0.415 / 0.680
Aspect / 1.50 × 10-4 / 1.77 × 10-4 / 0.847 / 0.402
Defoliation / -2.22 × 10-2 / 1.93 × 10-2 / -1.145 / 0.259
% Sand / -1.32 × 10-4 / 6.48 × 10-4 / -0.204 / 0.840

a Abbreviations for variables are explained in Table 1.

Table S2-2. Spatial lag model results on factors associated with the proportion of gypsy moth larvae killed by LdNPV (log10[proportion killed] + 1).

Variable / Estimate / SE / t-value / P
Intercept / -7.90 × 10-2 / 1.24 × 10-1 / -0.635 / 0.529
Spatial lag / 2.72 × 10-1 / 1.61 × 10-1 / 1.691 / 0.098
Egg mass density / 1.73 × 10-6 / 8.45 × 10-7 / 2.049 / 0.047
Pmar / 2.41 × 10-4 / 3.07 × 10-4 / 0.786 / 0.436
Papr / 4.27 × 10-4 / 2.04 × 10-4 / 2.092 / 0.042
Pmay / -5.31 × 10-4 / 2.14 × 10-4 / -2.478 / 0.017
Pjun / 6.47 × 10-4 / 2.65 × 10-4 / 2.447 / 0.019
Tempmax / -3.56 × 10-3 / 4.94 × 10-3 / -0.72 / 0.475
AWS / 1.43 × 10-2 / 4.55 × 10-3 / 3.155 / 0.003
Host area / 3.84 × 10-3 / 1.59 × 10-3 / 2.411 / 0.020
Slope / 6.06 × 10-4 / 6.60 × 10-4 / 0.918 / 0.364
Aspect / -2.72 × 10-5 / 7.15 × 10-5 / -0.38 / 0.706
Defoliation / 1.91 × 10-2 / 8.03 × 10-3 / 2.385 / 0.022
% Sand / 2.29 × 10-4 / 2.61 × 10-4 / 0.876 / 0.386

Table S2-3. Spatial lag model results on factors associated with the proportion of gypsy moth larvae killed by parasitoids (square-root transformed).

Variable / Estimate / SE / t value / P
Intercept / -3.25 × 10-1 / 6.05 × 10-1 / -0.537 / 0.594
Spatial lag / 2.24 / 8.92 × 10-1 / 2.513 / 0.016
Egg mass density / -5.38 × 10-6 / 5.90 × 10-6 / -0.912 / 0.367
Pmar / 2.72 × 10-4 / 2.22 × 10-3 / 0.122 / 0.903
Papr / 8.39 × 10-4 / 1.43 × 10-3 / 0.589 / 0.560
Pmay / -1.53 × 10-3 / 1.62 × 10-3 / -0.946 / 0.350
Pjun / 1.54 × 10-4 / 1.76 × 10-3 / 0.088 / 0.931
Tempmax / 2.20 × 10-2 / 2.54 × 10-2 / 0.864 / 0.393
AWS / -2.51 × 10-2 / 3.15 × 10-2 / -0.796 / 0.431
Host area / 1.10 × 10-2 / 1.21 × 10-2 / 0.909 / 0.369
Slope / -4.97 × 10-3 / 4.57 × 10-3 / -1.088 / 0.283
Aspect / -3.17 × 10-4 / 5.18 × 10-4 / -0.612 / 0.544
Defoliation / 8.41 × 10-2 / 5.60 × 10-2 / 1.500 / 0.141
% Sand / 3.07 × 10-3 / 1.86 × 10-3 / 1.656 / 0.105

Table S2-4. Spatial lag model results on factors associated with the number of E. maimaiga resting spores per gram of soil (square-root transformed).

Variable / Estimate / SE / t-value / P
Intercept / 32.160 / 33.999 / 0.946 / 0.350
Spatial lag0.5 / 0.856 / 0.262 / 3.273 / 0.002
Pmar / -0.192 / 0.155 / -1.242 / 0.221
Papr / 0.056 / 0.099 / 0.572 / 0.570
Pmay / 0.228 / 0.108 / 2.123 / 0.040
Pjun / -0.248 / 0.110 / -2.259 / 0.029
Tempmax / -0.870 / 1.799 / -0.484 / 0.631
AWS / -2.772 / 2.160 / -1.283 / 0.206
Host area / -1.020 / 0.701 / -1.455 / 0.153
Slope / -0.741 / 0.304 / -2.437 / 0.019
Aspect / -0.011 / 0.033 / -0.335 / 0.739
Defoliation / 5.443 / 3.745 / 1.454 / 0.154
% Sand / 0.080 / 0.114 / 0.707 / 0.484

Table S2-5. Spatial lag model results on natural enemies associated the decline in gypsy moth egg mass densities from 2009 to 2010 (log10[density in 2010]- log10[density in 2009]).

Variable / Estimate / SE / t value / P
Intercept / -4.83 × 10-1 / 4.61 × 10-1 / -1.048 / 0.300
Spatial lag / 1.69 × 10-4 / 4.92 × 10-5 / 3.436 / 0.001
Prop. killed by E. maimaiga / -2.00 / 6.84 × 10-1 / -2.929 / 0.005
Prop. killed by LdNPV / -2.18 / 1.79 / -1.215 / 0.230
Prop. killed by parasitoids / -4.35 / 1.66 / -2.626 / 0.011