Acknowledgements
This research report was prepared by Nick Casey, Melbourne City Research and Melissah Morrison, Health Projects
PEOPLEBetween 2008 and 2013 the Melbourne Local Government Area’s residential population increased by almost 30% (around 26,500 people) to an estimated 116,447 people. In the last year (2012-13) our population grew 10% or 11,000 people, making Melbourne City the largest and fastest growing municipality in Victoria. / Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2013 (cat. 3218.0)
Australian and Victorian households will get smaller, and populations will continue to grow and age. / Department of Planning and Community Development, Victoria in Future 2012, State Government of Victoria
In the coming years, our municipality’s population is expected to grow fast at an average annual rate of 5.8% reaching a forecast population of over 133,000 in 2016. / .id Consulting, 2013, City of Melbourne Population Forecasts, 2011-36, City of Melbourne
This municipality’s population is not ageing and is not expected to age. / Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Quickstats Melbourne Local Government Area
.id Consulting,2013, City of Melbourne Population Forecasts, 2011-36, City of Melbourne
Since 2001, the median age in Melbourne municipality remained 28 years. / Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Quickstats Melbourne Local Government Area
Average household sizes in Australia have remained the same (2.6 people per household) over the past 10 years. / Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Quickstats Melbourne Local Government Area
In contrast, this municipality’s average household size increased to 2 persons per household. / Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Quickstats Melbourne Local Government Area
Australia is experiencing a reversal in fertility rate trends with decreases becoming minor increases (more babies). / .id Consulting, 2012, Move over baby-boomers – it’s not all about you! September 2012 presentation
Young people and young adults (12 to 35 years of age) comprise the largest proportion of residential population at over 60% and this is forecast to maintain the same proportion in 2016. / Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Melbourne Local Government Area Basic Community Profile 2011
.id Consulting, 2013, City of Melbourne Population Forecasts, 2011-36, City of Melbourne
The municipality is becoming more multicultural since 2006, when 48.5% of the population was born overseas (53.5% by 2011) and almost 39% spoke a language other than English (43% by 2011). / City Research Branch, 2008, City of Melbourne Census Multicultural Profile, dataset, City of Melbourne
The municipality is more multicultural than the rest of Australia. In the rest of Australia, 26% of the population was born overseas and 19% speak a language other than English at home.
In Melbourne municipality, more residents were born overseas than in Australia. / Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Melbourne Local Government Area Basic Community Profile 2011
And
Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Australia Basic Community Profile 2011
Victoria gained more people from interstate migration than any other state or territory during the year ending 30 September 2013. This is the highest net interstate migration gain for the state in over 30 years and Victoria has now overtaken Queensland and Western Australia in net interstate migration. / Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014) - Australian Demographic StatisticsSep 2013MEDIA RELEASE 27 March 2014 (Cat no. 3101.0), on-line, (accessed 1 April 2014)
The changing the interstate migration trend is being driven by employment options rather than the traditional driver which is lifestyle. Australians will still migrate to Queensland and Western Australia for lifestyle reasons, however, there is a perception that Melbourne has more job opportunities. / Laura Chalmers, 2014, Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows Victoria has overtaken Queensland as most attractive place for Australians to move to, The Australian, 27 March 2014 , on-line, (accessed 1 April 2014)
Our total resident population is still growing. The implications are that the cohort of older persons will remain around the same size proportionally, at around 10% of the total population by 2016, but their actual numbers are expected to increase from over 9,000 in 2011 to more than 11,500 in 2016. City of Melbourne will have to consider how to balance its approach to this group with other demographic groups in the municipality. Similarly, while the number of children of primary and secondary school ages will increase / .id Consulting, 2013, City of Melbourne Population Forecasts, 2011-36, City of Melbourne
HOUSING
International research suggests metropolitan Melbourne house prices increased faster than income levels. Australian cities are among the most unaffordable housing markets in the world. / Cox and Pavletich, 2012, 8th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey: 2012,Performance Urban Planning
Between 2014 and 2016 new supply is projected to average 6600 dwellings per year, tripling the ten year average of 2100 dwellings per year. / City Research Branch, 2013, Development Activity Monitor November 2013, City of Melbourne.
Over the period 2012—14 Melbourne municipality will account for around 35% of overall residential
Urban renewal development activity in Greater Melbourne.
Over 2012-14, Melbourne municipality will be the largest growing residential urban renewal area in Greater Melbourne. / Property Council of Australia, 2012, Making the Numbers Stack Up – A Study into Major Residential Urban Renewal in Melbourne, Melbourne
More than 10% of new homes approved in Victoria in the past year (2010/11) will be built in the City of Melbourne. / Australia Bureau of Statistics, 2012, Building Approvals, Australia (cat. no. 8731.0).
The proportion of flats and apartments increased from 78% in 2002 to 83% of all housing in 2010. / Indicator from:
City Research Branch, 2012, Future Melbourne Monitoring Report (Draft) City of Melbourne
The proportion of renters and mortgagees paying less than 30% of their income on housing in this municipality declined between 2001 and 2011, from almost 61% to about 53.5%. / Indicator from:
City Research Branch, 2012, Future Melbourne Monitoring Report (Draft) City of Melbourne
6.5% of home purchasers and 29.5% of renters experience housing stress paying 30% or more of their household income on rent or mortgages. / Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2006
7% of private occupied dwellings in the municipality are social housing. / Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Melbourne Local Government Area Basic Community Profile 2011
City of Melbourne’s StreetCount shows a slight decline in numbers of people sleeping rough from 112 in 2008 to 101 in 2012. / Indicator from:
City Research Branch, 2012, Future Melbourne Monitoring Report (Draft) City of Melbourne
In November 2013 there were 51 developments under construction, expected to yield around 11,732 residential dwellings by the end of 2016. Eighty-five proposed developments with a total of 15,515 dwellings have town planning approval and could be expected to begin construction within two years. A further 63 proposed developments yielding 17,580 dwellings could be expected to begin construction within three to five years (subject to town planning approval).
Between 2014 and 2016 new supply is projected to average 6600 dwellings per year, tripling the ten year average of 2100 dwellings per year. / City of Melbourne 2013, Development Activity Monitor November 2013, Melbourne
Melbourne is the only municipality in Australia that is forecast by the Housing Industry Association to supply sufficient housing to meet forecast demand from residents by 2020. / Graham Wolfe, 2011, The Outlook for Residential Building, Housing Industry Association, September 2011.
Approximately 50% of new dwellings have one bedroom and dwelling size is shrinking with 40% of new dwellings having less than 50m2 of floor space. Around 42% of new dwelling construction is in higher density of 20 levels or more above ground. Finally, more than 90% of new dwellings are apartments. / City Research Branch, 2013, Dwelling Stock and Diversity in the City of Melbourne, Melbourne
Dwellings with a valuation less than $300,000 has dropped from 43% in 2006 to 21% in 2012 / City Research Branch, 2013, Dwelling Stock and Diversity in the City of Melbourne, Melbourne
State Government housing in the municipality has decreased by 4% in the past six years. Almost 70% of dwellings in the municipality are not held by owner occupiers, likely because dwelling growth is increasingly driven by overseas investors purchasing in the Australian market. / City Research Branch, 2013, Dwelling Stock and Diversity in the City of Melbourne, Melbourne
Some analysts and social researchers consider risks in the Melbourne housing market, including:
•A glut in the municipality’s market that could extend to the end of the decade.
•Financial losses on sale of dwellings. RP Data’s Pain and Gain report, showed 15.5% of all sales in Melbourne municipality in the final three months of 2013 were for below the initial purchase price, compared to 6% in metro Melbourne. The average loss was $33,000.
•Possible loss of liveability and the creative class vision for the centre of the city as “a place of work, recreation and residence in almost equal measure”. / City Research Branch, 2013, Dwelling Stock and Diversity in the City of Melbourne, Melbourne
The Victorian Government is reviewing the future of social housing in Victoria, which could include new social housing funding and development models and changes to rent levels and terms of social housing leases. The intent is to make social housing financially sustainable but could result in higher rents, less security of tenure and low income households being forced to leave the inner city or live in a cycle of homelessness, poverty and transitional housing. / Department Of Human Services, 2012, Housing Framework – Social Housing Options, April 2012 Stat Government of Victoria
In the case of women and children there are clear links between homelessness and family violence. / Spinney and Brady, 2011, Homelessness prevention for women and children who have experienced domestic and family violence: innovations in policy and practice, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, Swinburne–Monash Research Centre
ENVIRONMENT
Australians are estimated to have the fourth highest ecological footprint in the world. / Australian Conservation Foundation,2010, Consumption Atlas, Australian Conservation Foundation
Residential greenhouse emissions in Melbourne municipality were estimated at 6.07 tonnes CO2-e per capita in 2012-13.
Non-resident emissions declined were estimated at 14.24 tonnes CO2-e per worker, also in 2012-13.
Total residential electricity consumption increased from an estimated 223.6 million kWh in 2011-12 to 249.8 million kWh in 2012-13.
Non-resident electricity consumption also increased from in 3.2b kWh in 2011-12 to 3.8b kWh in 2012-13. / Indicators from:
Sustainability Branch, 2014, CARBON DISCLOSURE PROJECT - Municipal Inventory (Summary), City of Melbourne
Data for greenhouse emissions show total emissions in the municipality of 6,442,240 tCO2e in 2012–13 which includes emissions from electricity, gas, landfill waste, private vehicles and public transport. This is estimated as 6.07 tCO2e per resident and 14.24 tCO2e per worker. / Indicators from:
Sustainability Branch, 2014, CARBON DISCLOSURE PROJECT - Municipal Inventory (Summary), City of Melbourne
Daily water consumption per resident in the area declined on average by 4.2% per annum from 141 litres in 2008-09 to 119 litres in 2012-13 / Indicator from:
City Research Branch, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, City of Melbourne
Workers’ daily water consumption declined by an average of approximately 1.4% per annum from 108 litres in 2008-9 to 102 litres in2012-13. / Indicator from:
City Research Branch, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, City of Melbourne
Garbage collected per household per year in the municipality increased 2% per annum between2006 and 2012. / Indicator from:
City Research Branch, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, City of Melbourne
Recycling per household per year in the area increased 3% per annum from 2006 to 2012. / Indicator from:
City Research Branch, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, City of Melbourne
In 2012, 32% of this municipality’s residents and 29% of businesses have done something (saving water or installing more efficient air conditioning) to prepare for extreme weather events. / Indicator from:
City Research Branch, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, City of Melbourne
Climate change may have increasing public health impacts such … mental health (depression and suicide). / Climate Institute, 2011, A Climate of Suffering: The Real Cost of Living with Inaction on Climate Change, Climate Institute
GENERAL / ICLEI Local Governments following the Rio + 20 summit on the role of cities in dealing with global environmental issues:
LIFESTYLES
The way people are living their lives is changing. People are working more, connecting with others via social media, sitting for long hours in their car or at their desks and eating more fast foods. These unhealthy behaviours are resulting in physical and mental health impacts with rising rates of obesity and chronic illnesses such as heart disease, type 2 diabetes, cancer and mental health issues such as anxiety and depression. / World Federation for Mental Health
Mental Health And Chronic Physical Illnesses, The Need For Continued And Integrated Care, 2010
In addition, the majority of the world’s population is living in urban environments. With rapid development and population growth, inner city living and lifestyles are changing and this is likely to have significant health and wellbeing impacts. / United Nations, 2007 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects
94.5% of residents do not eat enough vegetables, 46% do not eat enough fruit, similar to state averages. / Department of Health, 2011, Victorian Population Health Survey 2008, State Government of Victoria.
34% male residents and 14% of female residents are overweight, similar to state averages. / Department of Health, 2011, Victorian Population Health Survey 2008, State Government of Victoria.
Male residents have significantly higher rates of cancer (11%), and women have significantly higher rates of heart disease (8.6%) than the state average (6.1% and 5.2% respectively). / Department of Health, 2011, Victorian Population Health Survey 2008, State Government of Victoria.
Male residents consume more alcohol at risky levels (41%) than the state average (33.3%). / Department of Health, 2011, Victorian Population Health Survey 2008, State Government of Victoria.
The area has the proportion of alcohol and drug-related ambulance attendances in Metro Melbourne. / Turning Point (2010). Trends in Alcohol and Drug Related Ambulance Attendances in Melbourne 2009-10.
Melbourne municipality has the highest rates of chlamydia notifications in Victoria. / Victorian Notifiable Infectious Diseases Surveillance database, Department of Health (2010)
Crime in the municipality increased 14% from 2010 to 2013 (from 26,712 to 30,537 recorded offences per 1000). / Victoria Police, 2014,Crime Statistics: Crime Statistics By Local Government Area (LGA) 2011/12 and 2012/13 (online), accessed 13 February 2014,
There has been an increase in the number of family violence incidences reported to Victoria Police / Victoria Police, 2014,Crime Statistics: Family Incident Reports (online), accessed 13 February 2014,
84.1% of residents mostly sit or stand at work all day, significantly more than the state average (64.2%). / Department of Health, 2011, Victorian Population Health Survey 2008, State Government of Victoria.
12.5% of residents report high to very high levels of anxiety and depression and 13% have sought professional help for a mental health problem, higher than the state average of 11.4%. / Department of Health, 2011, Victorian Population Health Survey 2008, State Government of Victoria.
The number of noise complaints received by City of Melbourne increased annually from 10.5 per 1000 in 2008 to 13.1 per 1000 in 2012. / City of Melbourne,2014, Municipal Public Health and Wellbeing Evaluation, Melbourne.
The average self-reported level of wellbeing reported by residents of the municipality was 75.4 in 2012 and 76.5 in 2013. / Indicator:
City of Melbourne, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, Melbourne
In 2012 more than 57% of people living in Melbourne municipality reported their health was either 'excellent' or 'very good'and in 2013, around 65% of people living in the municipality reported their health was either 'excellent' or 'very good'. / Indicator:
City of Melbourne, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, Melbourne
Residents reported satisfaction with feeling a part of the community in the municipality was 67.5 in 2012 and 68.2 in 2013. / Indicator:
City of Melbourne, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, Melbourne
In 2012 almost 43% of residents in Melbourne municipality reported that they helped out as a volunteer and by 2013 it was over 49%. / Indicator:
City of Melbourne, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, Melbourne
The major safety concerns over the next five years included public drunkenness (43%), assault/physical violence (25.6%), traffic flow (17.4%), drug use (15.7%) and managing growth/increased population (13.8%). / City of Melbourne, Perceptions of Safety Survey 2009
SOCIAL INEQUALITIES
The ACOSS Poverty in Australia report found nearly 2,265,000 people in 2010 (12.8% of all people) were living below the poverty line and 600,000 or 17.3% of them were children. The measure of poverty was 50% of median income in Australia. Poverty among single parent families has increased by 15% since 2001. / Australian Councilof Social Service, 2012, Poverty in Australian 2012, Sydney, on-line, (accessed 19 March 2013),
Melbourne has Victoria’s socially and economically most advantaged area and some of Victoria’s most disadvantaged areas on the Australian Bureau of Statistics Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA). / Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2006, Census Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas, Melbourne Local Government Area, 2006.
People who reside in public housing in areas of Carlton, North Melbourne and Kensington are identified as the most disadvantaged in the municipality. / Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2006, Census Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas, Melbourne Local Government Area, 2006.
More than a third of the population (36%) are low income earners, earning less than $399 per week. / Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2011
In 2012 around 4.5% of adults in the municipality reported they had run out of food in the past 12 months and could not afford to buy more and in 2013 less than 3% had run out of food and been unable to afford more. / Indicator from:
City Research Branch, 2013, Future Melbourne Monitoring, City of Melbourne
22% of residents in this municipality report they don’t always have the quality or variety of food they want because some foods are too expensive. / Department of Health, 2011, Victorian Population Health Survey 2008, State Government of Victoria.
Low income families with either two or one parents would need to spend 43 to 46% of their incomes respectively, to maintain a healthy diet, which is above the recommended 30% of income for food. / Health Services Branch, 2010, Food Security Profile 2012, City of Melbourne
40% of Australians believed that 'Inflation/Cost of Living' was one of the top three issues facing the nation; making it the number one issue for June quarter 2012. / Nathan R, 2012, The Ipsos Social Research Institute Issues Monitor, May to July 2012, Ipsos Australia
the proportion of Melbourne Local Government Area’s households earning more than $2,500 per week is higher compared to Greater Melbourne / Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2011, Basic Community Profile, Melbourne Local Government Area
and
Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2011, Basic Community Profile, Greater Melbourne