Xavier University Center for the Study of the American Dream

Executive Summary of Results—2011 American Dream Survey
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TO:Michael Ford

Xavier University Center for the Study of the American Dream

FROM:Paul Maslin and Shakari Byerly

Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3)

DATE:March 24, 2011

RE: Executive Summary—2011 American Dream Survey

Americans are clinging to the belief that they can reach the American Dream in the face of a torrent of bad news that is leaving a trail of negative attitudes in its wake.

This second annual national survey investigating the state of the American Dream finds declining assessments nearly across-the-board—on the state of the country, America’s world status, trust in institutions, and the generational legacy of the Dream itself.[1] Only the actual rating of the Dream, a more mixed result, and respondents’ own confidence in reaching that Dream have remained essentially unchanged over the last year. And the gap between all Americans and those who have emigrated here in the past two generations has also widened on a number of measures, as recent immigrants continue to hold markedly more positive views about their country and the Dream than do other Americans.

Highlights include the following:

• The current condition of the Dream receives a 46 overall score—essentially the same as last year’s 45. (This score is based on the mean result of a 1-10 numerical scale.) Interestingly, the number of respondents assigning the lowest possible score—a “1”—declined from 22% to 14%. But as in 2010 only one-fifth of our sample rated the Dream’s current condition as a 7 or higher—most people give it a mediocre score from 3 to 6;

• A series of other measures concerning the direction of the United States has worsened over the past year, generally producing double-digit net declines.

Only 23% believe the country is headed in the right direction with 67% saying things “have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track”, a 15 point net drop from a year ago. A similar decline emerged in the public’s view of things in their own region, as now only 38% think things are headed in the right direction.

Confidence in the economy has lessened. Last year a majority (51%) felt the U.S. economy would improve over the next year or so; now only 41% expect it to get better. 46% thought then that their own personal financial situation would get better; now that optimism measure has dropped to 41%;

While the basic rating of the American Dream has not changed much, the widely-held view about generational trends has. Last year 60% of Americans felt that it was harder to reach the Dream today than it was for their parents’ generation; today that number has surged to 69%. In 2010, 68% believed it would be harder still to reach the Dream for their children or grandchildren; today 73% feel that way, with a majority (52%) saying it will be “much harder” for generations to come to reach the Dream;

And in a stunning combination of findings, only 23% now believe America is a country “on the rise”, down from 32% who felt that way a year ago; only 39% believe America “represents the future” as opposed to 57% who think the “world looks to many different countries”; 52% volunteer China as the nation the world now looks to in terms of the future; and 63% believe the Chinese economy is more powerful than our own in terms of its world role;

In essence, Americans seem to be confirming the view in some quarters that if the last century was “the American Century”, as first coined by Henry Luce, the current era is fast becoming the Chinese Century. Actual GDP figures and other statistical comparisons would challenge this view, but the significance is psychological: Americans are fast losing faith that we are still Number One.

• Nowhere is the decline in optimism more dramatic than among African Americans. While African Americans rate the Dream on par with respondents in the overall sample (a score of 46), nearly one quarter (23%) say it is in the “worst possible condition” (a score of 1). This is a slightly higher proportion than last year when 20% offered the same response, but remarkably higher than the proportion in the overall population (14%).

Confidence in the ability to reach the Dream has plummeted. Only 27% say they are “extremely” confident that they can reach the Dream, compared to 40% who offered the same response one year ago.

The recession likely plays a substantial role in these trends—as well a decline in optimism about the direction of the country. While African Americans remain much more positive about the economy than the population as whole—54% expect the economy to improve over the next year compared with only 23% overall—the proportion is much lower than last year when a broader segment (70%) held this opinion.This may also be driving the reversal in opinions about their prospects for reaching the Dream compared with that of their parents’ generation—only 39 percent believe it is easier for them, than it was for their parents, compared to 52% who felt that way one year ago. And they now express a lower level of confidence in things being easier for the generation after them, which is down, from 42% in 2010 to only 26% today.

The decline in optimism, however, is most striking in their perceptions of the direction of the country. While a 57% majority expressed satisfaction with the direction of the country last year, just over one-third (34%) share that opinion today. In fact, 61% say the country is now off on the wrong track, compared to only one-third who felt that way one year ago—a 51% net decline.

• The story is different among 1st or 2nd generation immigrants, however. Their view of America’s general direction is much more positive than other respondents—40% say it is headed in the right direction (52% feel the same way about their own region)—and, unlike the sample as a whole, it has remained unchanged since last year.

Immigrants’ optimism about the economy is stronger: 52% think it will improve, and 45% expect improvement in their own personal financial situation, an increase from 2010.

They continue to rate the condition of the American Dream higher than other Americans—assigning it a 53 score compared to the 46 we found in the entire sample. And they are evenly split as to whether or not the U.S. represents the future, a much stronger result than the entire sample, unsurprising given the myriad of circumstances that led to their more recent arrival in the U.S. They have an investment of success in this country that will not be so easily shaken.

And while all respondents chose “a good life for my family” as the best definition of the Dream, surpassing last year’s leaders, freedom and opportunity, nowhere was that response as common as with our immigrant oversample. Thirty-five (35) percent named it as the top definition of the Dream, with another 23% identifying it as their second choice.

Yet even among immigrants the sense of generational downward shift is present: 71% say it is harder to reach the American Dream than it was for their parents, a net twenty point drop since 2010; and 62% think it will be harder still for the next generations, a 14 point net decline since a year ago.

• It is a given that Americans have been losing faith in their institutions for many years, or even decades. Yet the level of that distrust we uncovered is striking:

78% say they have less trust in government than they did 10 or 15 years ago;

79% say they have less trust in big business and major corporations;

72% report declining trust in the media; and

A whopping 83% say their trust has declined when it comes to “politics in general”;

Only faith-based institutions (44% say trust has increased; 35% declined) and particularly the military (60% say they have more trust in our armed forces) buck this powerful trend.

• Still, despite all the persistent troubles with America and the Dream, our respondents have confidence in their own personal ability to reach the Dream: 63% say they are “extremely” or “fairly” confident that they have already reached it or will in their lifetime. This is a small decline from the 67% who felt this way last year. Seventy percent of 1st or 2nd generation immigrants feel the same way, a slight increase from 2010’s findings (67%). It is testimony to the power of the Dream that with so many other indicators falling, and often falling fast, the overall assessment of the Dream’s condition has not declined nor has the basic confidence of the American people that they can reach it.

Other Results

As noted, while the basic definitional results changed little, the one marked difference was that “good life for my family” (26%) surpassed both “freedom” and “opportunity” (18% each) as what came first to mind concerning the American Dream. This could be the result of a wording change from last year’s survey, when the response was given just as “family”. Regardless it could also be an indication that as economic woes persist, more Americans are limiting the scope of the Dream to that which is closest to them.

We asked respondents what stood in the way of both their own prospects for achieving the Dream and those of the next generation. Over half (51%) chose either a declining standard of living/less economic opportunity or the failure of our leaders and institutions to make difficult decisions as the principal obstacles they face. We offered a different list for the next generation, including America being unprepared for the future, foreign competition and a breakdown in America’s social fabric—nonetheless it is intriguing that the two lead responses had nothing overt to do with the economy: 19% chose “growing problems in our education system” and 19% picked “lack of appreciation for hard work and responsibility”. Almost forty percent therefore feel that the fault/barrier lies either in the schools or the kids themselves.

Race, ethnicity, class and immigration are still significant factors in terms of the Dream and the country’s overall condition. Seventy eight (78) percent feel family background, class or income status are important elements in achieving the Dream; 57% feel the same way about race or ethnicity—both similar findings to that of 2010. A majority (55%) continues to prefer the sustaining “beacon of opportunity” view of immigration as opposed to immigrants coming to America mainly to seize jobs or accept handouts. An even higher number of immigrants themselves—72%—agree, though 20% sympathize with the harsher belief.

More Americans (52%) feel that the Dream is a “long standing aspiration”, something less tangible, as opposed to those (39%) who view it as a tangible goal such as economic success or home ownership. This gap has widened some in the last year from six to thirteen points, again perhaps a reaction to continued economic distress. The economy in general and unemployment continue to dominate the open-ended national problem question we ask at the beginning of these surveys: 43% mention one of those two issues, whereas only 10% named the budget/government/ spending/debt, 8% named the government itself, politicians or President Obama, and no more than 4% mentioned any of the other pressing issues such as U.S. involvement in foreign wars, education, the environment/energy policy, or health care.

A series of agree-disagree statements designed to flesh out the basic definitions of the Dream produced nearly identical responses to 2010—with the strongest beliefs centered around the reality that “these days I am working harder than ever before for less money”, the view that “most of my dreams concern… my family”, and the belief that “I hold dear the personal freedom to pursue what I want when I want.”

In addition, three new questions yielded fairly strong views. On a 1 to 7 scale 70% awarded a 5,6 or 7, with nearly half (44%) choosing the extreme score, to the statement that “the rest of the world [doesn’t] look up to America like they used to”. Seventy-five percent felt the same way, with results more evenly split between the positive responses, about a statement that asserted “I already have achieved some measure of the American Dream.” And a smaller majority—60%—agreed with the statement that “immigration… is important to keeping the American Dream alive”. Eighty-four percent of immigrants themselves agreed with this final statement.

[1] From March 6-15, 2011, Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz and Associates (FM3) conducted telephone interviews with 1,003 adults age 18 and older. The margin of error for the sample is +/-3.1%. Three-hundred additional interviews were conducted among first and second generation immigrants, raising the size of the immigrant sub-sample to 465 interviews, which has a margin of error of +/-4.6%. This methodology replicates a baseline survey conducted by FM3 on behalf of XavierUniversityin February 2010.