September 29, 2018

REGIONAL EXECUTIVES

FRCC—Sarah Rogers SERC—Scott Henry

MRO—Daniel P. Skaar SPP—Stacy Dochoda

RFC —Timothy R. GallagherTRE—Lane Lanford

NPCC—Edward A. Schwerdt WECC—Mark Maher

2012 Summer Reliability Assessment Data and Narrative Request

Dear Regional Executives:

The NERC Reliability Assessment Subcommittee (RAS) is requesting your assistance in assessing the reliability of your Region for the 2012 summer.

NERC Regional Entities should submit the requested data for each Assessment Area through the completion of the attached data form (ERO2012_SA.xls). Narratives should be completed based on responses to the assessment questions (Attachments II-IV). Both the completed data form and corresponding narrative for each Assessment Area should be sent electronically to by March 26, 2012.

All data and text should be as complete and accurate as possible, based on available information at the time of submittal. Representatives from the Regional Entities are ultimately responsible for the submittal of both the data form(s) and narrative(s). Please notify NERC staff with any questions regarding this request, or if there are subsequent changes to the originally submitted data or narrative.

The narrative questions for the 2012 Summer Reliability Assessment have been updated by the RAS. Although the information requested remains essentially unchanged from last year’s request, modifications have been made to eliminate repetition and promote comprehensive responses. The structure of the assessment has also been separated into two parts:

  • 2012 Summer Assessment – Seasonal Outlook (PART I)
  • 2012 Summer Assessment – Methods and Assumptions (PART II)

PART I of this request will include questions pertaining to the actual projections for each Assessment Area. PART II will include questions intended to provide additional background information related to the methods and assumptions used by each Assessment Area to develop and support the projections and related data in PART I. Accordingly, the information in PART II will require updates only as frequently as the Assessment Area changes or enhances the process for assessing reliability.

Please adhere to the following guidelines when addressing the narrative questions below:

  • Do not change the questions when seeking input from members of your Region. Much of the supplemental information requested resulted from input from the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), the RAS, and broad NERC stakeholder input. Please contact NERC staff for clarification on definitions and/or assessment questions.
  • Annotate your responses to each question for easy identification by the peer reviewers. Use the following annotation convention for each question (include the question number in brackets before the first sentence of each response: Example:

[5.2.3] The mothballing of the Tracy generating station and refurbishment of the Gentilly-2 nuclear generating station are largely offset by additional hydro, wind and biomass resources projected to come online during the period of assessment.

  • Please adhere to the following formatting guidelines:
  • Spacing: 1.15
  • Body text: 12-pt Calibri
  • Section titles: 14-pt Calibri (Bold)
  • Margins: Standard (1 inch margins on Left, Right, Top, and Bottom of paper)
  • A description of each table/chart has been provided as placeholders. Formatted tables and charts will be added by NERC staff and included in subsequent drafts and resubmitted to the RAS for the remainder of the peer review process.

Please contact NERC staff with any questions regarding this request. Word versions of this letter and related RAS material can be found at

On behalf of NERC’s Planning Committee and the Reliability Assessment Subcommittee, we thank you for your support of NERC’s Reliability Assessments.

Sincerely,

John N. Moura

Manager, Reliability Assessment

JNM:ct

Attachments

cc: Reliability Assessment Subcommittee

Planning Committee

Attachment I: 2012 Summer Reliability Assessment Schedule

The RAS has proposed the following schedule for the 2012 Summer Reliability Assessment:

Monday, January 30 / Data and narrative request
Monday, March 26 / Data and narrative due to NERC
Friday, March 30 / Initial draft sent to RAS
Wednesday and Thursday, April 11-12 / RAS peer review meeting
Monday, April 16 / Corrected data and revised narrative due to NERC
Friday, April 20 / Second draft due to RAS
Monday, April 30 / Final narrative due to NERC
Friday, May 4 / Final draft sent to PC/OC/MRC
Tuesday, May 15 / PC webinar review and approval
Friday, May 18 / Final draft sent to NERC Board of Trustees
Wednesday, May 30 / NERC Board of Trustees webinar review and approval
Thursday, May 31 / Target release

Attachment II: 2012 Summer Reliability Assessment – Seasonal Outlook (PART I)

Prepare a written reliability self-assessment narrative for the respective Assessment Area’s seasonal outlook. Responses to the following questions should be included in a separate Microsoft Word document. Answers to questions that are not applicable to a specific Assessment Area need not be answered. As a reminder, all table/chart descriptions below are to be used as placeholders to ensure the text appropriately aligns with the data included in each table/chart.

  1. Assessment Area Highlights

1.1.Please complete the template for Assessment Area Highlights (Attachment IV).

  1. Planning Reserve Margins
  2. Indicate if the Assessment Area is projecting an adequate Planning Reserve Margin during the 2012 summer.

Clarification: You should examine the results of the three Planning Reserve Margin categories (Anticipated, Prospective, and Adjusted Potential Planning Reserve Margins). Should any of these categories fall below the Reference Margin Level, an explanation should be included.

2.2.Identify the Reference Margin Level.

Clarification: The Reference Margin Level is either a Regional, subregional, state, provincial, or other regulatory or market requirement. Each Assessment Area may have its own specific Reserve Margin level based on load, generation, and transmission characteristics as well as regulatory requirements. If a requirement is provided to NERC, that requirement is adopted as the Reference Margin Level. If not, NERC will assign a 15 percent Planning Reserve Margin for predominately thermal systems and 10 percent for predominately hydro systems

2.3.If the Assessment Area is projecting an adequate Planning Reserve Margin throughout the summer season, explain the contributing factors that lead to this level of adequacy.

2.4.If the Assessment Area is not projecting an adequate Planning Reserve Margin throughout the summer season, explain the following:

2.4.1.Which Planning Reserve Margin category is projected to be below the Reference Margin Level?

2.4.2.What are the contributing factors that lead to the Planning Reserve Margin falling below the Reference Margin Level?

2.4.3.What are the plans to ensure a sufficient Planning Reserve Margin is maintained in the future?

2.4.4.What immediate mitigating actions are being taken to ensure reliability?

Clarification: Explain why the Planning Reserve Margins fall below the Reference Margin Level. Potential responses include a high demand growth rate, not enough generation planned, or significant resource retirements. Further, identify potential solutions to maintain a sufficient Planning Reserve Margin in the Future.

2.5.Identify potential issues or circumstances that can lead to significant detractions of these projections.

Clarification: Describe potential challenges that may exist in the Assessment Area that are not identifiable in the data. Potential issues may include pending environmental regulations, significant increases in demand, challenges in constructing new generation, etc.

A Planning Reserve Margin table will be included in this section. The table will show the Planning Reserve Margin projections (Anticipated, Prospective, and Adjusted Potential) compared to the Reference Margin Level for both the 2011 and 2012 summer forecasts.
  1. Demand

3.1.Compare last summer’s peak demand forecast (MW) to the actual peak demand (MW). Explain any significant differences.

3.2.Compare last summer’s peak demand forecast (MW) to this summer’s peak demand forecast (MW). Explain any significant differences.

3.2.1.Reference any changes or enhancements to methods used in the assessment forecast and reference PART II: 2012 Summer Assessment – Methods and Assumptions.

3.3.Discuss key factors leading to significant demand forecast changes; specifically, explain the impacts of:

3.3.1.Footprint changes

3.3.2.Entity acquisitions and exits

3.3.3.Economic outlook (both country-wide and Assessment Area-specific)

3.4.Describe any other changes or enhancements (since the reporting prior season) to the forecasting methods used by the Assessment Area.

3.5.Explain the load growth dynamics across the Assessment Area. If applicable, identify the causes for localized instances of load growth or reductions.

Clarification: It is common for projected load growth to be inconsistent across a single Assessment Area. Identify areas within the Assessment Area that may have more pronounced effects on demand projections (i.e., states, cities, etc.). Further, explain the cause for those effects.

A demand table will be included in this section. The table will show the Total Internal Demand and Net Internal Demand for the 2011 summer forecast, 2011 actual peak demand, 2012 summer forecast, and all-time summer peak demand, including the date of occurrence.
  1. Demand-Side Management

4.1.Identify the total amount (MW) of Demand Response and Energy Efficiency/Conservation that is expected to be in available on peak for the 2012 summer.

4.2.Describe how these resources are used within the Assessment Area.

Clarification: Describe Demand Response programs within the Assessment Area (generalization of multiple similar programs is sufficient. Identify whether Demand Response is used for peak shaving, emergencies, as a capacity resource, or other means.

4.3.Provide an updated description and status of the following existing and projected Demand-Side Management programs (i.e. significant developments, policy implementation, etc.):

4.3.1.Energy Efficiency/Conservation

4.3.2.Total Dispatchable and Controllable Demand Response

4.3.3.Demand Response used for Ancillary Services

Clarification: Describe the drivers for Demand-Side Management programs including policy enhancements (state or other regulatory drivers affecting projected Demand-Side Management). Describe any new programs being incorporated into resource plans as well as other operational strategies within the Assessment Area. (e.g., new and enhanced Demand Response programs providing ancillary services and Energy Efficiency/Conservation programs).

A Demand Response and Energy Efficiency/Conservation table and chart will be included in this section. The chart and tables will show the Demand Response and Energy Efficiency / Conservation projections (will show each Demand Response category), identify the amount of Total Internal Demand (MW and %) for both the 2011 and 2012 summers.
  1. Generation

5.1.Indicate the amount (MW) of current Existing-Certain, Existing-Other, and Existing-Inoperable resources.

5.1.1.What are the primary sources of fuel in the Assessment Area?

5.1.2.Indicate the amount (MW) of Existing-Certain resources by fuel-type added since the prior season.

5.2.Identify the amount (MW) of Future-Planned resources projected to be added leading up to and during the 2012 summer.

5.2.1.Discuss planned unit retirements, project deferments, derates, or otherwise negative impacts to Existing capacity since the prior season. (Include MW and month of occurrences).

Clarification: Explain specific seasonal measures taken to address these issues, such as retirements and mitigate potential reliability issues (do not include standard operational plans, but rather explain how resource planning and operations will react to each specific development).

A Generation table will be included in this section. The table will show Future capacity (MW) for the 2012 summer assessment period.

5.3.Discuss and provide specific detail (including MW values) regarding the following instances, emphasizing the short-term impacts throughout the 2012 summer season:

5.3.1.New generation since last season

5.3.2.Generator up-rates new for this season

5.3.3.Units taken out of service during this season (or prior to this season if not captured in the most recent seasonal assessment)

5.3.4.Units being brought back into service during this season (or prior to this season if not captured in the most recent seasonal assessment)

5.3.5.Ongoing long-term outages

5.3.6.Behind-the-meter generation

5.3.7.Other “non-traditional” resources (storage, flywheels, batteries, etc.)

Clarification: Discuss specific projects or circumstances that will lead to a short-term impact. You should focus on those instances where significant reliability issues can manifest.

5.4.The following questions apply to wind, solar, hydro and biomass (provide answers for each resource unless a particular resource is not present in the Assessment Area):

5.4.1.Explain the capacity (MW) expected on-peak and the maximum capacity (MW) from each resource.

5.4.2.Summarize how the expected on-peak values for each resource are determined.

5.4.3.If applicable, describe enhancements to how expected on-peak capacity values are calculated for each resource in the Assessment Area.

5.5.Describe how operational procedures will be impacted during the summer season as a result of integrating variable resources (wind and solar).

A renewable generation (wind, solar, hydro, and biomass) table will be included in this section. The table will show summer 2011 and summer 2012 projected values for Expected, Derated, and Nameplate capacity.
  1. On-Peak Capacity Transactions

6.1.Provide a brief explanation of the portion of the Firm imports and/or exports that are backed by contracts.

6.1.1.Include any background information on unit-specific and/or transmission contracts.

6.1.2.Explain the length of any Firm contracts

6.1.3.Explain how projections are determined for capacity transactions that go beyond the term of any Firm contracts.

Clarification: Provide this information if available. This information will help readers understand the structure of these import and/or exports and the arrangement of contracts in each Assessment Area.

6.2.Describe any reliance on emergency imports. Additionally:

6.2.1.Clarify whether or not these imports are external to Balancing Areas or Regions.

6.2.2.Include the emergency generation (MW) levels assumed to be available to meet the Assessment Area’s Planning Reserve Margin Reference Level.

An On-Peak Capacity Transactions table will be included in this section. The table will show Firm and Expected Imports and Exports projected for both summer and winter seasons.
  1. Transmission

7.1.Describe any project delays or temporary service outages for all transmission facilities (lines or transformers) that will impact reliability during the 2012 summer.

7.1.1.Identify the measures that will be taken by the Assessment Area to address these potential reliability concerns.

7.2.Identify specific projects that are needed to maintain or enhance reliability during the 2012 summer season.

  1. Operations
  2. Describe any special operating studies (including any extreme weather conditions, drought studies, etc.) performed and site any unique operational problems observed.

8.2.Describe any new operating procedures resulting from integration of variable resources (i.e. wind, solar, etc.).

8.3.Describe and any potential reliability concerns resulting from minimum demand and over generation.

8.3.1.If applicable, list the operating measures that will be employed to mitigate these concerns.

8.4.Describe any concerns with the use of demand response resources to meet peak demand. (Responses should be in terms of availability/performance (if DR is deployed, what is the expectation that some of these resources will not perform?).

8.4.1.If there are concerns, explain the operating measures that will be used to mitigate them,

8.4.2.Include any restrictions on how many times Demand Response resources can be deployed.

8.5.Explain any environmental and/or regulatory restrictions (e.g. emissions, water levels, etc.) that could impact reliability.

8.5.1.Include the projected magnitude (with MW) of the restriction and subsequent impact on operating margins.

8.5.2.Explain how the projected magnitude was determined including specifics on criteria used in the determination.

8.6.Describe any other anticipated unusual operating conditions that could significantly impact reliability for the upcoming summer.

  1. Vulnerability Assessment

9.1.Discuss resource adequacy and operational concerns for the following potential conditions:

9.1.1.Long-term/extended drought

9.1.2.Significant long-term generator outages

9.1.3.Unresponsive/Unavailable Demand Response

9.1.4.Significant increases in variable generation

9.1.5.Other Area-specific issues

9.2.Describe whether any special protection systems/remedial action schemes were installed since last summer in lieu of planned bulk power transmission facilities, and identify whether it will be a permanent or temporary solution.

9.3.Discuss the pending future environmental regulations that may have an impact on the Assessment Area during the upcoming season.

9.3.1.Specifically, describe how the effects of potential environmental regulations are being included in the planning process.

9.3.2.Describe actions being taken within the Assessment Area to address and mitigate potential reliability issues.

9.3.3.Will long-term maintenance outages affect off-peak reliability?

9.3.4.Will there be sufficient time to perform required retrofits?

9.3.5.List and provide details on any generators that will be out-of-service during the summer season for the installation of environmental controls.

9.4.Discuss how the Assessment Area coordinates with the fuel industry (e.g., coal suppliers, gas pipe-line operators) to ensure that:

9.4.1.Supplies are adequate

9.4.2.Transportation is secured

Attachment III: 2012 Summer Assessment – Methods and Assumptions (PART II)

  1. Planning Reserve Margins

1.1.Explain the assumptions used to establish the projected Planning Reserve Margins for each Assessment Area.

1.2.Explain considerations for how the following factors are included in the Assessment Area’s Planning Reserve Margin calculation:

1.2.1.Peak season

1.2.2.Existing-Certain

1.2.3.Future-Planned

1.2.4.Energy-Only

1.2.5.Transmission-Limited

1.2.6.Demand-Side Management

1.2.7.Behind-the-meter generation

1.2.8.External (Imports)

1.2.9.Demand Assumptions

1.3.Explain the criteria (regulatory perspective) used to establish the Reference Planning Reserve Margin Level for each Assessment Area.