Australian Science and Mathematics School

Simon Langford TG11

Australian Science and Mathematics School

Year 12 Geography

Geographical Inquiry

“What impact could climate change have on Australian farmers?”

“What impact will Climate Change have on Australian Farmers?”

Australian farmers rely on consistent rainfall patterns year to year in order to plant crops and produce a decent yield. Traditionally there have been distinctive rainfall seasons and farmers based their crop cycles around those. However in recent years, the times these rainfall seasons have been occurring have been changing, as well as a drop in the amount of rainfall received. As a result of this, yields have been down and in some cases farmers struggling to break-even, resulting in increased financial hardship for those on the land. This has serious economic consequences given that grain is one of Australia’s major exports.

Climate change is occurring world wide as a result of global warming. Global Warming is caused by a buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, causing the surface temperatures of Earth to rise. As a result of the rising temperatures, the cycles that take place near the Earths surface are altered, with events such as El Nino occurring more frequently. Over the next few years, it is predicted that weather events will become more erratic and un-predictable, with stronger storms and winds. These changes could result in it becoming harder to grow a crop with an element of reliability due to storms, higher levels of rainfall and altered oceanic conditions altering El Nino conditions. (The Nature Conservancy).

Since the 1960’s, Carbon Dioxide levels in the atmosphere have been rapidly building up as a result of emissions. The graph below shows us the concentration of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere since the 1960’s. (Robert. A. Rhode)

Deforestation, Burning coal for electricity generation, internal combustion engines in cars and trucks all emit carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. (Ecobridge). We need to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide we produce, and plant more trees in order to reduce the carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere if we wish to sustain the climate we are used to.

Climate change has already affected South Australia’s Primary Producers. 2005-2006 saw us with a period of low rainfall, which resulted in large losses in the cereal crop sector, as well as grape and fruit production. This season, grape growers in the Barossa Valley are expecting up to an 80% downturn in production due to a combination of drought, and frost. (ABC-1)

2006 set record drought figures for many areas in South Australia. Streaky Bay in 2006 saw the following record lows in rainfall:

Month / Average / 2006
August / 50.6mm / 5.2mm
September / 30.7mm / 3.4mm
October / 26.5mm / 0

Streaky Bay saw three months with record low rainfall levels since 1865. August, September and October, which on average receive 50.6, 30.7 and 26.5mm of rainfall, only received 5.2 and 3.4mm of rainfall. October received no rainfall. (B.O.M-1)

The above image shows rainfall across Australia for 2006 (B.O.M-2)

The above image shows Average Australian Rainfall. (B.O.M -3)

Drought creates more problems for farmers than simply reduced crop yields. Because of drought there will not be the same amount of feed for livestock, and potentially a shortage of water for them. This could result in farmers having to sell off cattle, or depending on the market conditions, send them to the butcher. This could have a very negative effect on the meat industries in Australia, reducing exports and pushing up prices locally.

If local farm produce dropped, i.e: dairy, grain, wool and meat, we will be forced to rely more heavily on imported products in order to meet the demands of the residents of Australia. The flow on effect from this is that more money is going overseas, and that could potentially harm Australia’s Gross Domestic Product. In the period of 2005 to 2006, Australia produced 4.1% of the worlds overall wheat supply, with 71% of our total wheat production being exported. (ABARE)

To assist with the drought, drought assistance initiatives for farmers have been put in place by both state and federal governments, offering assistance with loans, taxes, interest and loss of income. Most areas that have experienced lower than average rainfall in the last two to three years are eligible to apply for the scheme. (PIRSA/Services SA)

Over the next few years, areas that were previously viable for agriculture use may no longer produce the returns required to make them viable. Farmers in these areas will be faced with the difficult decision of whether to continue trying to farm their land for a profit, to sell up, or to take part in any potential buy back incentives offered by the government.

The impact of drought goes far further than simply the farmers themselves. Because of the downturn in productivity on farms, farmers will be less likely to purchase new farm machinery, new cars, or to buy things that are not absolutely essential. This will have a negative effect on small towns and local businesses that supply the farms with goods and services. If farmers decide to leave their land because it is no longer viable to farm it, then the local businesses will loose their client bases and will have to seriously reconsider their future business plans.

If our climate changes in a way that makes it not economically viable for our farmers to continue farming their land in the ways they do today, then communities will need to find new uses for the land, and new sources of income for townspeople, if they wish to continue their current lifestyle.

Tourism could potentially be a source of income for small towns, getting people into the towns and utilising the local businesses. For some towns this could be a viable option, for others not so. Towns that fail to attract people to them, or to produce something saleable, have an uncertain future.

In conclusion, we can see that Global warming will have an impact on agriculture in Australia. Drought and harsher conditions will not work in favour of the farmers, resulting in farming no longer being viable. This will have devastating effects on our economy, and could potentially place more strain on our cities and infrastructure.

We need to prevent global warming from getting any worse, by lowering our carbon emissions, and planting trees to reduce the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. New technologies such as fuel cells for cars, and existing technologies such as nuclear energy need to have a higher uptake worldwide.

References:

PIRSA/Services SA – Drought assistance information page http://www.service.sa.gov.au/ContentPages/sagovt/Drought.aspx

Robert. A. Rhode – Graph of data published by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_mm_mlo.dat

The nature conservancy – Impacts of Global Warming

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_mm_mlo.dat

Ecobridge – Causes of carbon emissions

http://www.ecobridge.org/content/g_cse.htm

B.O.M -1 – Bureau of Meteorology – Rainfall record lows – Streaky Bay

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_018079_All.shtml

B.O.M-2 – Bureau of Meteorology – Rainfall map of Australia 2006

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/rain_maps.cgi

B.O.M-3 – Bureau of Meteorology – Average rainfall Australia

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/cgi_bin_scripts/annual-monthly-rainfall.cgi

ABC1 – Barossa Valley Grape Growers

http://abc.net.au/news/australia/sa/gambier/200703/s1864175.htm