Prof. Dimitri B. Kececioglu, Ph.D., P.E., Director

Reliability Engineering and Management Institute

The University of Arizona

Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering Dept.

1130 N. Mountain Avenue

Building No. 119, P.O. Box 210119, Room N 517,

Tucson, Arizona85721-0119

Phone: 520-621-6120; FAX: 520-621-8191

E-mail:

If you receive more than one of these announcements,

please pass the extra copy on to an associate.

“IF AN EXPERT PRODUCT ASSURANCE AND RELIABILITY ENGINEER YOU WANT TO BECOME,

TO THIS OUTSTANDING AND VERY COMPREHENSIVE INSTITUTE YOU NEED TO COME!”

Do Not Spend Months To Learn What You Can Learn In A Few Hours In This Institute

The University of Arizona
College of Engineering & Mines
PRESENTS

The 43rd Annual

Applied Reliability Engineering and Management Institute

November 14-17, 2005

CLARION HOTEL, TUCSONAIRPORT, 6801 S. Tucson Blvd., Tucson, AZ85706. Phone: 520-746-3932 or 800-526-0550

KEYNOTE ADDRESSES:

  1. Monday, November 14, 2005, 8:30 a.m. – 10:00 a.m.

John A. Hansen , Reliability Engineering Manager, GE-OEC Medical Systems, Inc., “Reliability Engineering – Revisiting the Basics.”

  1. Monday, November 14, 2005, 10:15 a.m. – 11:15 a.m.

Mr. Douglas C. Kemp, Staff Reliability Engineer, Safety & Reliability Engineering, Rolls-Royce Corporation, “The Role of Reliability Engineering in a Changing Business Environment.”

  1. Tuesday, November 15, 2005, 8:00 a.m. – 10:00 a.m.

Mr. Tony Lovato, Engineering Sciences Manager, Honeywell Engine Systems & Accessories, Electronic Controls Product Line, “Reliability – Vision for the Future.”

  1. Tuesday, November 15, 2005, 10:15 a.m. – 11:15 a.m.

Mr. Surinder S. Bedi,V.P. of Global Quality & Reliability, Applied Materials, Inc., ”Recent Reliability Innovations and Advancements in the Semiconductor Equipment Industry.”

5. Wednesday, November 16, 2005, 8:00 a.m. – 10:00 a.m.

Dr. Rolin K. Asatourian, Reliability Team Leader, DRS Sensors & Targeting Systems, “Monte Carlo Simulation in Failure Rate Calculation of Systems with Complex Failure Definitions.”

6. Wednesday, November 16, 2005, 10:15 a.m. – 12:00 a.m.

Mr. Bulent Sener,V.P., Worldwide Quality, Business, and Engineering Optimizations, Computer Associates, “Tools, Methods, and Approaches to deliver the Value Stream Reliability.”

7. Thursday, November 17, 2005, 8: 00 a.m. – 10:00: a.m.

Mr. Kurt Reinhardt, R&D Program Manager, Ventana Medical Systems, Inc., “Quantifying the Designed-In and Manufactured Reliability with Small Sample Sizes.”

8. Thursday, November 17, 2005, 10: 15 a.m. – 12:00: noon.

Mr. Don Gerstle, VP of Global Quality & Reliability, C&D Technologies, Inc., “Power Conversion Reliability.”

WITH SPECIAL EMPHASIS ON:

RELIABILITY ENGINEERING AND PRODUCT ASSURANCE: THE KEY TO INDUSTRIAL SUCCESS AND WORLD-CLASS COMPETITIVENESS THROUGH RELIABILITY ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT; Why Reliability Means Business? Reliability-Vision for the Future; The Role of Reliability Engineering in a Changing Business Environment; Market Trends and Demands Related to Reliability, Quality and Total Cost of Ownership; Reliability Engineering Implementation Challenges and Solutions; Establishing System Level Reliability Goals; How to Design More Reliable Products at Lower Life Cycle Costs; Design for Six Sigma; Risk Assessment; Quantifying the Designed-In and Manufactured Reliability with Small Sample Sizes; Reliability Growth; Reliability Prediction Techniques; Monte Carlo Simulation in Failure Rate Calculation; The Latest Reliability and Maintainability Data Analysis Techniques and Their Unique Software; Integrated Product Development from Concept to Customer; Failure Modes, Effects, and Critically Analysisin Action; Planning and Executing the Correct Reliability Demonstration Testing; Accelerated Testing; Condition Assessment and Life Prediction Requirements; Reliability, Maintainability, and Availability Performance Measurement; Challenges in Military Aerospace Microelectronics Reliability; Storage Reliability Issues; Reliability & Safety Assessment; Building an Integrated Reliability Plan; Reliability Engineering Software.

The eight (8) Keynote Speakers, Dr. Kececioglu, and five (5) additional speakers will provide in-depth coverage of all aspects of Reliability Engineering. Numerous applications of these methods will be presented and participants’ pertinent questions will be gladly answered.

Sponsored by THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA

With the Very Generous PRIME SUPPORT of

and the Generous Co-Sponsorship of

DATE / FIRST SESSION
8:00 a.m. – 10:00 a.m. / SECOND SESSION
10:15 a.m. – 12:00noon
MONDAY
NOVEMBER
14
ARIZONA
ROOM / WELCOME AND KEYNOTE ADDRESSES / THE ROLE OF RELIABILITY ENGINEERING IN A CHANGING BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT.
REGISTRATION 7:00 a.m. – 8:00 a.m.
WELCOME 8:00 a.m. – 8:30 a.m.
Dr. Dimitri B. Kececioglu – Institute Director.
Dr. J. Brent Hiskey, Associate Dean for Research and Administration, College of Engineering and Mines, The University of Arizona.
Dr. John G. Williams, Associate Department Head and Professor of Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering Department, The University of Arizona.
KEYNOTE ADDRESS 1: RELIABILITY ENGINEERING – REVISITING THE BASICS.
Mr. John A. Hansen 8:30 a.m. – 10:00 a.m.
  • Establishing system level Reliability goals.
  • Understanding use environment.
  • Reliability allocations and predictions.
  • FMECAs and FTAs.
  • Reliability Testing.
  • FRACAS.
/ KEYNOTE ADDRESS 2
Mr. Douglas C. Kemp 10:15 a.m. – 11:15 a.m.
  • Focus of aerospace business is changing from products to services.
  • Accurate reliability predictions are key to the profitability of service agreements.
  • Detailed bottoms’ up engine reliability assessments are more conservative than actual field experience.
  • Rolls-Royce has developed a robust “top-down” model that can simulate the actual field data.

STORAGE RELIABILITY
Mr. Russell W. Morris 11:20 a.m. – 12:00noon.
  • What drives storage reliability issues?
  • What are the mechanisms of failures?
  • What are methods of designing for storage?
  • What about new technologies?
  • What are the real applications for storage?

TUESDAY
NOVEMBER
15
ARIZONA
ROOM / RELIABILITY – VISION FOR THE FUTURE / Recent Reliability Innovations and Advancements in the Semiconductor Equipment Industry
KEYNOTE ADDRESS 3
Mr. Tony Lovato
  • Market trends and demands related to reliability, quality, and total
cost of ownership.
  • Response to market trends and demands (rapid, fact based, accurate, fiscally responsible).
  • Current process and tools trends (Design For Reliability, Design and Analysis Tools Integration).
  • Organizational and functional impacts and directions.
  • Managing change and addressing cultural barriers.
  • Optimizing for success.
/ KEYNOTE ADDRESS 4
Mr. Surinder S. Bedi 10:15 a.m. – 11:15 a.m.
  • Equipment reliability definitions and standards.
  • What drives equipment reliability issues?
  • Methodology for reliability testing, validation and improvements
  • FMECA and ERAMS applications and advances.
  • Customer applications, validations and trends for reliability.
  • Key roles played by engineering, manufacturing and Q&R, and customer and suppliers to advance reliability.

THE RELIABILITY OF CONSTANT FAILURE RATE, EXPONENTIAL UNITS
Dr. Dimitri B. Kececioglu 11:20 a.m. – 12:00noon.
  • The Reliability of exponential or constant failure rate units.
  • The exponential failure rate quantification by calculation and also by probability plotting.
  • The Reliability characteristics of constant failure rate units.
  • The quantification of the mean time between failures (MTBF) of constant failure rate units.
  • Numerous applications.

WEDNESDAY
NOVEMBER
16
ARIZONA
ROOM / MONTE CARLO SIMULATION IN FAILURE RATE CALCULATION OF SYSTEMS WITH COMPLEX FAILURE DEFINITIONS / TOOLS, METHODS, AND APPROACHES TO DELIVER THE VALUE STREAM RELIABILITY
KEYNOTE ADDRESS 5
Dr. Rolin K. Asatourian
  • How to use Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to simplify failure rate calculation of a system with a large number of subcomponents with complex requirements where probability equations for series or parallel combinations become prohibitively complex to develop.
  • Use of MCS in conjunction with MIL-HDBK-217 where the relationship of the failure rate of the system with that of its sub-components can not beexpressed in simple series and parallel combinations.
  • Analysis used for the infrared camera of a space-based system with over16,000 individual detectors where failure of the camera is specifiedbased on relative and absolute locations of failed detectors.
/ KEYNOTE ADDRESS 6
Mr. Bulent Sener
  • Integrated Reliability model for reliability and cycle-time improvements.
  • The Value Delivery Model and organizational behaviors.
  • Act of Suppliers, Engineering, Operations, Service, and the Customer.
  • Reliability Tools.
  • Standardized tasks for achieving optimized reliability.
  • Role of E-business, globalization, and communications for reliability.

THURSDAY
NOVEMBER
17
ARIZONA
ROOM / QUANTIFYING THE DESIGNED-IN AND MANUFACTURED RELIABILITY WITH SMALL SAMPLE SIZES / POWER CONVERSION RELIABILITY
KEYNOTE ADDRESS 7
Mr. Kurt Reinhardt
  • Uncertainties in Reliabilities, mean lives and failure rates resulting from small sample sizes.
  • Strategies to obtain the maximum possible information from small, available test sample sizes.
  • Coping with successive prototype iterations to determine the designed-in and manufactured Reliability, mean life and failure rate.
/ KEYNOTE ADDRESS 8
Mr. Don Gerstle
  • Reliability definition.
  • Design and manufacturing for high Reliability.
  • Critical design / component / process considerations.
  • Critical test considerations: verification, validation, qualification, on-going reliability life, and burn-in.
  • Future Reliability trends at the component and system level.
  • Numerous graphs, and pictures to support and clarify key points made.
  • Additional considerations.

DATE / THIRD SESSION
1:15 p.m. – 3:00 p.m. / FOURTH SESSION
3:15 p.m. – 5:00 p.m.
MONDAY
NOVEMBER
14
ARIZONA
ROOM / RELIABILITY & THE SAFETY ASSESSMENT PROCESS ON CIVIL AIRBORNE SYSTEMS & EQUIPMENT / BUILDING AN INTEGRATED RELIABLITY PLAN
Mr. Harry Synovetz 1:15 p.m. – 2:15 p.m.
  • A Systematic means of evaluating safety early in the design process in order to drive Reliability.
  • Avoiding the loss of Redundancy.
  • The use of Reliability data over mixed environments & mission profiles.
  • Functional Hazard Assessment, Preliminary System Safety Assessment, FTA, FMECA, & the Reliability Prediction.
  • An example of the analysis & subsequent Reliability goals driven by Safety requirements during aircraft design.
/ Mr. Fred Schenkelberg 3:15 p.m. - 4:00 p.m.
  • Explore the balance between two major approaches.
  • Highlight the major decisions to customize the plan.
  • Highlight significant connections between elements of a plan.
  • Describe in detail how to establish reliability goals.
  • Describe major considerations around critical components.
  • Explore when to use HALT vs. ALT.

RELIABILITY ENGINEERING PRINCIPLES, PRACTICES AND BENEFITS / SYSTEM EFFECTIVENESS, AND EQUIPMENT AND SYSTEM RELIABILITY PREDICTION
Dr. Dimitri B. Kececioglu 2:25 p.m. – 3:00 p.m.
  • Reasons for Reliability Engineering and Product Assurance: Delivering reliable, easy to maintain, high quality and safe to operate products on schedule, at globally competitive prices.
  • The minimum life-cycle cost Reliability goal that should be designed-in.
  • The five very important Reliability Engineering concepts: (1) Times-to- Failure Distribution; (2) Reliability; (3) Conditional Reliability; (4) FailureRate; and (5) Mean Life.
  • All about distributions of times to failure and their Reliability Engineering applications.
  • Case histories of major benefits resulting from the implementation of an Integrated Reliability Engineering Program.
/ Dr. Dimitri B. Kececioglu 4:05 p.m. – 5:00 p.m.
  • Forty-five (45) applications of and benefits from Reliability Engineering.
  • System Effectiveness qualification and its benefits.
  • Thirty-eight eight (38) ways to reduce the life-cycle cost of equipment while increasing their Reliability, Maintainability and Availability.
  • System Reliability Prediction.
  • Numerous applications.

TUESDAY
NOVEMBER
15
ARIZONA
ROOM / RELIASOFT’S RELIABILITY ENGINEERING SOFTWARE SOLUTIONS / TIN WHISKER UPDATE
Mr. David J. Groebel 1:15 p.m. – 2:15 p.m.
  • Three ReliaSoft’s Software packages designed for Reliability Engineers and Managers by the RELIASOFT Corp.:
  • Weibull++ 6.0 for “Life Data Analysis”.
  • ALTA for “Quantitative Accelerated Life Testing”.
  • BlockSim for “Complex System Reliability, Maintainability and Availability Analyses.
/ Mr. Jeffrey L Thomas 3:15 p.m. – 4:00 p.m.
  • What are tin whiskers?
  • What have we learned recently about them?
  • How do they put our products at risk?
  • How can we mitigate their effect?
  • What is the aerospace industry doing about it?

UNIQUE METHODS OF EQUIPMENT RELIABILITY QUANTIFICATION / RELIABILITY OF NON-CONSTANT FAILURE RATE WEIBULLIAN UNITS
Dr. Dimitri B. Kececioglu 2:20 p.m. – 3:00 p.m.
  • Early, chance, and wear-out Reliability.
  • Reliability of units with multiple failure modes.
  • Five bathtub curve models and their quantification.
  • Numerous applications.
/ Dr. Dimitri B. Kececioglu 4:05 p.m. – 5:00 p.m.
  • The Weibull distribution and its Reliability Engineering applications.
  • Quantification of the Weibull distribution of units that fail with multiple failure modes.
  • The “composite” distribution of the “bath-tub” curve.
  • Quantification of the burn-in time.
  • Probability plotting method of determining the Weibull distribution’s parameters.
  • Numerous applications

WEDNESDAY
NOVEMBER
16
ARIZONA
ROOM / HOW TO DESIGN A DESIRED RELIABILITY INTO EQUIPMENT / FAILURE MODES, EFFECTS, AND CRITICALITY ANALYSIS (FAMECA)
Dr. Dimitri B. Kececioglu
  • Target Reliability determination.
  • Reliability analysis of an accessory power unit system.
  • Reliability analysis of a rocket-borne photo flash unit.
  • Three-valued Reliability prediction of a product.
  • Methods of improving equipment Reliability if the goals are not met.
/ Dr. Dimitri B. Kececioglu
  • A comprehensive FAMECA case history.
  • Identification of failure modes and effects.
  • Detailed criticality analysis.
  • Development of the criticality ranking.
  • Detailed applications.

THURSDAY NOVEMBER
17
ARIZONA
ROOM / RELIABILITY GROWTH TECHNIQUES / ROBUST ENGINEERING DESIGN BY RELIABILITY
Dr. Dimitri B. Kececioglu
  • Why Reliability Growth?
  • The Gompertz and the Modified Gompertz models.
  • The Lloyd-Lipow model.
  • The Failure Discounting Growth model.
  • The Weibull non-homogeneous Poisson process failure rate improvement (AMSAA) growth models.
  • Numerous applications.
/ Dr. Dimitri B. Kececioglu
  • Available mechanical Reliability prediction methods.
  • Comparison of conventional design and the Robust Engineering Design-by-Reliability Methodology in a practical example.
  • Comparing the safety factor approach with the Design-by-Reliability Methodology.
  • Determination of the lower, one-sided confidence limit on the designed-in Reliability at a desired confidence level.

MONDAY EVENING, NOVEMBER 14, 2005
RECEPTION
6:00 p.m. – 7:30 p.m.
HOSTED BY ALL INSTITUTE SPONSORS: / ENROLLMENT & REGISTRATION
Enrollment will be accomplished via the Enrollment Form on page 5 of this brochure. Registration will take place at the Arizona Room in the Clarion Hotel on Monday, November 14, 2005, from 7:00 to 8:00 a.m. Name tags, Dr. Kececioglu’s two-volume Reliability Engineering Handbook, and the Institute’s Proceedings will be given during registration, Extra copies of the Institute’s brochure, information about Tucson and its environs, The University of Arizona, restaurants, sightseeing, and aid to participants and their spouses/guests will be available at the tables in the Arizona Room.
Please leave word that you may be reached at the Clarion Hotel by calling (520) 746-3932 or (800) 526-0550, and asking for Dr. Kececioglu’s Reliability Institute during the Institute sessions, or by leaving a message with the operator.
The University of Arizona reserves the right to cancel this Institute. In the event of cancellation all registration fees will be refunded in full. The University of Arizona cannot be held responsible for other costs incurred other than the registration fee.
PRIME SUPPORTERS
APPLIED MATERIALS
COMPUTER ASSOCIATES
DRS SENSORS & TARGETING
SYSTEMS
GE OEC MEDICAL SYSTEMS
RAYTHEON / CO-SPONSORS
CATERPILLAR
HONEYWELL
RELIASOFT
ROLLS-ROYCE
VENTANA MEDICAL SYSTEMS
WESTERN DIGITAL
VIDEOTAPES AND LECTURE NOTES
Videotaped minicourses and comprehensive lecture notes are available for rental or purchase on the following subjects:
  1. Applied Reliability Engineering in Action.
  2. Applied Burn-in Testing.
  3. Applied Environmental Stress Screening.
  4. Robust Engineering Design-by-Reliability and Mechanical Reliability.
  5. Applied Maintainability Engineering & Preventive Maintenance Scheduling.
  6. Applied Accelerated Reliability & Life Testing.
  7. Sample Size & Test Time Efficient Suspended Items & Sudden Death Testing, & Field Data Analysis Techniques for Reliability Determination.
  8. Complex Equipment & System Reliability Prediction & Resulting Design Improvements.
  9. Applied Reliability & MTBF Growth Testing Techniques.
  10. The Weibull Distribution & Its Reliability & Maintainability Engineering Applications
  11. Reliability & Maintainability Engineering in Action.
  12. Reliability & Quality Analysis.
  13. Applied Reliability Testing.
For Dr. Kececioglu’s books, please see page 5.
For detailed contents, costs and sources of the above items, please write to:
Dr. Dimitri B. Kececioglu
7340 N. La Oesta Avenue
Tucson, AZ85704-3119
Or call: 520-621-6120; or FAX: 520-621-8191; or E-mail: / IMPORTANT NOTICE
Please help us by having all attendees – paying or complimentary – complete the enrollment form and return it to us so that we may have nametags, books and proceedings ready at registration for everyone.
FEES
The Institute fee of $1,500 includes all lectures, Dr. Kececioglu’s two-volume “RELIABILITYENGINEERING HANDBOOK,” comprehensive proceedings, a certificate of completion, complimentary continental breakfast and luncheons Monday through Thursday, and refreshments throughout this Institute, but not the software packages which are to be paid for separately. See the Enrollment Form for modes of payment. For those who do not want the two-volume handbook, the Institute Fee is $1,300. Extra copies of the proceedings will be available at a cost of $50.00each after the Institute.
Fees must be paid in full by November 14, 2005, or indication made that fees will be paid by government, or other contract. Credit Cards are not accepted.
Refund requests cannot be honored after November 4, 2004; however, substitute enrollees will be honored.
GROUP RATES
If 3 or 4 members of the same organization, attend the Institute, a 10% enrollment fee discount will be given, which goes up to 15% for 5 to 9 members, and 20% for 10 or more.
INSTITUTE LOCATION AND HOTEL ACCOMMODATIONS
All Institute meetings will be held in the very comfortable and very attractive Clarion Hotel, phone: 520-746-3932 or 800-526-0550. The Clarion Hotel is holding a block of rooms at a special rate of $66.78 all inclusive, single or double occupancy, for attendees of this Institute. Reservations must be made by November 1, 2005 in order to guarantee this rate. Be sure to mention that you are attending THE 43rd Reliability institute of Dr. Kececioglu when you reserve a room.
ABOUT THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA
The University was founded in 1885 and given to Tucson to appease the townfolks' anger for having been bypassed as the site for the territorial capital. Today Tucson takes boastful pride in being the home of The University of Arizona and its over 500-acre campus. The University opened in 1891 with but one building on the campus, Old Main, which still stands in the center of the pear-shaped drive at the University Mall. At that time there were 3 colleges with an enrollment of 31 students. Today there are over 121 beautiful buildings and 12 colleges with an enrollment of about 35,000. On campus, and free to the public, are The University of Arizona Museum of Art. The ArizonaStateMuseum at the main gate at Park Ave., Center for Creative Photography, for information call 621-7968. The MineralMuseum in the FlandrauPlanetarium & ScienceCenter. PharmacyMuseum in the Pharmacy-MicrobiologyBuilding, Room 123. Call 621-7827 for performances at the Planetarium. For Main Campus information call 520-621-2211.
TRANSPORTATION
TheClarion Hotel provides a free shuttle service between the airport and the hotel. Take advantage of it. Call the Clarion Hotel at 520-746-3932 or 800-526-0550to get the shuttle service.
CERTIFICATE OF COMPLETION
A certificate of completion with 2.6 Continuing Education Units (CEU’s) will be given to each Institute enrollee upon request.
ABOUT TUCSON
November is a beautiful month in Tucson, Arizona. The skies are sunny daily. Day temperatures range between 58º and 89º F with humidity under 40 percent. The elevation is 2,400 feet and very picturesque mountains surround this lovely city. Tucson, with a metropolitan population of about 900,000 has kept the charming touches of a Western city. You will be delighted with the pleasant surprises that await you in Tucson. Casual attire is recommended while attending the Institute. Bring your swimsuit along!
INSTITUTE GOALS AND BENEFITS
By the conclusion of this Institute the enrollees will have a very good understanding of Reliability Engineering and Product Assurance, and how to determine the reliability of equipment; will acquire the ability to apply the principles involved to all types of components and equipment from design to customer service; plan burn-in, growth, and life testing; improve the reliability of equipment; and how to effectively manage all of these efforts. This Institute will help attendees pass the ASQ Certified Reliability Engineer (CRE) Examination.
WHO SHOULD ATTEND AND TECHNICAL LEVEL
The Institute is designed for engineers of all ranks, including reliability engineers and managers, product assurance engineers and managers, test engineers and managers, quality control engineers and managers; manufacturing, sales and service engineers and managers; staff engineers; design engineers; all other engineers; statisticians, government and industry representatives. Knowledge of statistics, probability and undergraduate college mathematics is desirable to benefit fully from this Institute, but is not required.
DISTANCELEARNING-EXTENDEDUNIVERSITY
The University of Arizona has a unique program which provides videotapes of Reliability Engineering, Maintainability Engineering and Reliability & Life Testing videotape sets which cover these topics. They may be rented or purchased. Please contact the following for details and costs:
Colleen Reed 520-626-2079 FAX: 520-626-1102
E-mail:
Rebecca Cook 520-626-3734 FAX: 520-621-3269
E-mail:

TECHNICAL INFORMATION
For information about specific coverage of technical subjects at this Institute, please call Dr. Kececioglu at 520-621-6120, or FAX at 520-621-8191, or E-mail at
SPOUSE/GUEST PROGRAM
Depending upon interest, tours and shopping trips of Tucson and its environs may be arranged for at the registration desk Monday morning after 9:00 a.m.