1 Intelligent Well Technology: Status and Opportunities for Developing Marginal Reserves SPE
Relative modelling Effectiveness of Energyand Environment programs and policies
Matthew Hansen, National Energy Board, 1-403-299-3179,
Abha Bhargava, National Energy Board, 1-403-299-3171,
Tara Smolak, National Energy Board, 1-403-299-2746,
Ken Newel, National Energy Board, 1-403-299-3146,
Overview
The National Energy Board periodically releases long-term energy supply and demand forecasts in order to engage and inform Canadians on energy issues, as part of the Board’s goal to help ensure they benefit from efficient energy infrastructure and markets. The last such forecast, Canada’s Energy Future: Reference Case and Scenarios to 2030, provided a reference case forecast for Canadian energy supply and demand, as well as three distinct energy futures with the scenario forecasts. The forecasting work that goes into these reports is generated via a suite of internal and external models. An interesting component of this suite of models is that it allows us to model specific factors relevant to Canada’s energy outlook, including energy prices and production, macroeconomic forces, and energy and environment programs and policies. Programs and policies provide a particular challenge, as recent years have been marked by a wide range of different types of programs and policy initiatives designed to influence energy and environment factors. This paper will use The NEB’s suite of models to test the relative modelling effectiveness of different types of energy and environment programs and policies by creating individual scenarios designed to highlight the potential impact of such policy actions. Note that this work is done out of methodological interest, and while the types of policies and programs tested here are based on those proposed and/or implemented in Canada, the work is not intended as critique or endorsement of any policy action employed by a specific government at the federal, provincial, or municipal level.
The paper is organized as follows: Following the introduction, Section 2 will provide an overview of the types of policies and programs to be modelled here. Section 3 provides a brief description of how the policies and programs are modelled. Section 4 provides the test results and analysis, while Section 5 offers some concluding remarks.
Methods
Five to ten energy programs and policies will be selected to be modelled individually through an integrated demand-supply system. The impact of these policies is assessed by individual sectors and jurisdictions.
Results
Preliminary results indicate:
1).Varying levels of effectiveness among the tested policies and programs.
2).Sectoral and jurisdictional characteristics an important factor in determining modelling effectiveness.
Conclusions
Taking energy and environment policies and programs out of the context of specific governmental energy and/or climate change strategies allows us to test the relative modelling effectiveness of these initiatives. It is found that modelling effectiveness varies among policies and programs, and that sectoral and jurisdicational characteristics are important in determining modelling effectiveness.
References
Canada’s Energy Future: Reference Case and Scenarios to 2030, November 2007,
nsi/rnrgynfmtn/nrgyrprt/nrgyftr/2007/nrgyftr2007-eng.pdf, National Energy Board, 2007