0. Overview
Start with a large-scale overview of current conditions, using items linked below:
- visible and infrared satellite images
- a composite surface weather map
- a composite map for conditions aloft
- a jet stream map
Then address one or more selected items of the forecasting assignment by inserting or editing template text as needed (e.g., from the latest NWS point forecast), a discussion, and the forecast itself.
1. Forecast location: KOAK
2. 12Z Temperature
Links:
- Latest available meteogram
(Drag and drop a copy of the meteogram here, and resize it to fit.) - Next-latest available meteogram
(Drag and drop a copy of the meteogram here, and resize it to fit.) - Latest NWS Point Forecast:
[Copyand paste text from the NWS point forecast relevant to 12Z tomorrow. For example:
Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. South southeast wind around 6 mph. ]
- Latest computer model (NAM) forecast of winds and temperatures at 12Z tomorrow in the S.F. Bay area
(Drag and drop a copy of the NAM forecast map here, below the link [putting both on a new page if necessary], and resize the map to fit.)
Discussion: [Describe the part of the conceptual model of the daily temperature cycle that provides the basis for the your forecast, using this annotated plot of temperature vs. time: Annotated Temperature Plot. Consult the Forecasting Tactics document for details. Your discussion should be detailed enough so that someone else could reproduce your forecast.]
Forecast: [Your forecastas you would enter it at Iowa St. U.’s Web site.]
3. Will cloudiness affect the 12Z temperature tomorrow?
Links:
- Latest NWS Point Forecast:
[Copy and paste text from that forecast relevant to 12Z tomorrow. For example:
Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. South southeast wind around 6 mph. ]
- wunderWiki: “Educational: Partly Cloudy” (an attempt to interpret the language used in NWS cloudiness forecasts)
(Copy and paste relevant text from the wunderWiki Web site here.)
Discussion: [State the criteria for whether or not clouds will affect the 12Z temperature. Then identify the source(s) of the information that you use to make your forecast, together with the reasoning that you apply, including any assumptions that you make. Consult the Forecasting Tactics document for details. Your discussion should be detailed enough so that someone else could reproduce your forecast.]
Forecast: [Your forecastas you would enter it at Iowa St. U.’s Web site.]
4. Will a front affect the 12Z temperature tomorrow?
Links:
- Verification area for fronts affecting KOAK
- NWS Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Short Range Forecasts
(Drag and drop copies of the relevant “short range forecast” maps here, resizing them to fit. Label each with its forecast time.)
Discussion: [State the criteria for whether or not a front will affect the 12Z temperature. Then identify the source(s) of the information you used to make your forecast, together with the reasoning that you apply, including any assumptions that you make.Consult the Forecasting Tactics document for details. Your discussion should be detailed enough so that someone else could reproduce your forecast.]
Forecast: [Your forecastas you would enter it at Iowa St. U.’s Web site.]
5. Will temperature advection be significant at 12Z tomorrow?
Links:
- Latest computer model (NAM) forecast of winds and temperatures at 12Z tomorrow in the S.F. Bay area
(Drag and drop a copy of the NAM forecast map here, below the link, and rescale the map to a smaller size.) - Temperature Tendency Calculator[optional]
Discussion:[State the criteria for whether or not temperature advection will affect the 12Z temperature. Then identify the source(s) of the information you used to make your forecast, together with the reasoning that you apply, including any assumptions that you make.Consult the Forecasting Tactics document for details. Your discussion should be detailed enough so that someone else could reproduce your forecast.]
Forecast: [Your forecastas you would enter it at Iowa St. U.’s Web site.]
6. 18Z Temperature
Links:
- Latest available meteogram
(Drag and drop a copy of the meteogram here, and resize it to fit.) - Next-latest available meteogram
(Drag and drop a copy of the meteogram here, and resize it to fit.) - Latest NWS Point Forecast:
[Copy and paste text from that forecast relevant to 18Z tomorrow. For example:
Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. South southeast wind around 6 mph.
Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 65. Southeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming southwest. ]
- Latest computer model (NAM) forecast of winds and temperatures at 18Z tomorrow in the S.F. Bay area
(Drag and drop a copy of the NAM forecast map here, below the link [putting both on a new page if necessary], and resize the map to fit.)
Discussion: [Describe the conceptual model (illustrated below) that provides the basis for the your forecast. Then identify the source(s) of the information you used to make your forecast, together with the reasoning that you apply, including any assumptions that you make.Consult the Forecasting Tactics document for details.Include enough detail that someone else could reproduce your forecast.]
Forecast: [Your forecastas you would enter it at Iowa St.U.’s Web site.]
7. Will cloudiness affect the 18Z temperature tomorrow?
Links:
- Latest NWS Point Forecast:
[Copy and paste text from that forecast relevant to 18Z tomorrow. For example:
Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 65. Southeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming southwest. ]
- wunderWiki: “Educational: Partly Cloudy” (an attempt to interpret the languages used in NWS cloudiness forecasts)
(Copy and paste relevant text from the wunderWiki Web site here.)
Discussion: [State the criteria for whether or not clouds will affect the 18Z temperature. Then identify the source(s) of the information that you use to make your forecast, together with the reasoning that you apply, including any assumptions that you make. Consult the Forecasting Tactics document for details. Your discussion should include enough detail for someone else to reproduce your forecast.]
Forecast: [Your forecastas you would enter it at Iowa St. U.’s Web site.]
8. Will a front affect the 18Z temperature tomorrow?
Links:
- Verification area for fronts affecting KOAK
- NWS Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Short Range Forecasts
(Drag and drop copies of the relevant “short range forecast” maps here, resizing them to fit. Label each with its forecast time.)
Discussion: [State the criteria for whether or not a front will affect the 18Z temperature. Then identify the source(s) of the information you used to make your forecast, together with the reasoning that you apply, including any assumptions that you make.Consult the Forecasting Tactics document for details. Your discussion should have enough detail for someone else to reproduce your forecast.]
Forecast: [Your forecastas you would enter it at Iowa St. U.’s Web site.]
9. Will temperature advection be significant at 18Z tomorrow?
Links:
- Latest computer model (NAM) forecast of winds and temperatures at 18Z tomorrow in the S.F. Bay area
(Drag and drop a copy of the NAM forecast map here, below the link, and rescale the map to a smaller size.) - Temperature Tendency Calculator[optional]
Discussion:[State the criteria for whether or not temperature advection will affect the 18Z temperature. Then identify the source(s) of the information you used to make your forecast, together with the reasoning that you apply, including any assumptions that you make.Consult the Forecasting Tactics document for details. Include enough detail so that someone else could reproduce your forecast.]
Forecast: [Your forecastas you would enter it at Iowa St. U.’s Web site.]
10.What will the wind speed be at 18Z tomorrow?
Links:
- Latest NWS Point Forecast:
[Copy and paste text from that forecast relevant to 18Z tomorrow. For example:
Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 65. Southeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming southwest. ]
- Latest computer model (NAM) forecast of winds and temperatures at 18Z tomorrow in the S.F. Bay area
(Drag and drop a copy of the NAM forecast map here, below the link, and resize the map to fit.)
Discussion: [Identify the sources of information that you use for making your forecast, together with the analysis and reasoning that you use. In particular, comment on the relative strengths and weaknesses of the NWS point forecast and the NAM forecast, and comment on how you factor them into your forecast. Consult the Forecasting Tactics document for details. Your discussion should be detailed enough so that someone else could reproduce your forecast.]
Forecast: [Your forecastas you would enter it at Iowa St. U.’s Web site.]
11.What will the wind direction be at 18Z tomorrow?
Links:
- Latest NWS Point Forecast:
[Copy and paste text from that forecast relevant to 18Z tomorrow. For example:
Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 65. Southeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming southwest. ]
- Latest computer model (NAM) forecast of winds and sea-level pressures at 18Z tomorrow (West Coast of the U.S.)
- Latest computer model (NAM) forecast of winds and temperatures at 18Z tomorrow in the S.F. Bay area
(Drag and drop a copy of the NAM forecast map here, below the link, and resize the map to fit.)
Discussion: [Identify the sources of information that you use for making your forecast, together with the analysis and reasoning that you use. In particular, comment on the relative strengths and weaknesses of the NWS point forecast and the NAM forecast, and comment on how you factor those strengths and weaknesses into your forecast. Consult the Forecasting Tactics document for details. Your discussion should be detailed enough so that someone else could reproduce your forecast.]
Forecast: [Your forecastas you would enter it at Iowa St. U.’s Web site.]
12. Will there be precipitation between 12Z tomorrow and 12Z the next day?
Links:
- NWS Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Short Range Forecasts
(Drag and drop copies of the relevant “short range forecast” maps here, and resize them to fit. Label each with the forecast time). - Latest NWS Point Forecast:
[Copy and paste text from that forecasts relevant to 12Z tomorrow through 12Z the next day. For example:
Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. South southeast wind around 6 mph.
Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 65. Southeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming southwest. ]
Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. West southwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming south southeast.
Discussion:[Identify your source(s) of information and explain the analysis and reasoning that you use to make your forecast.Consult the Forecasting Tactics document for details. Your discussion should be detailed enough so that someone else could reproduce your forecast.]
Forecast: [Your forecastas you would enter it at Iowa St. U.’s Web site.]