Economic Impact Analysis

CEUMANNAN II

Economic Impact Analysis

Report

for

Staffin Community Trust

by

Steve Westbrook, Economist

and

Duncan Bryden Associates

Final Version

2 June 2016

Steve Westbrook, Economist, Bellevue, Seafield Street, Nairn IV12 4HL

Tel / Fax: 01667 455308 E-mail:

CEUMANNAN II

Economic Impact Analysis

Contents:Page No:

Section 1.0:Introduction1

Section 2.0:Methodology2

Section 3.0:Context4

Section 4.0:Audiences5

Section 5.0:Economic Impacts15

Section 6.0:Future Scenarios21

Section 7.0:Funding Opportunities23

Section 8.0:Conclusions and Summary of Impacts24

Appendices

Appendix 1:Path Proposals and Capital Costs

Appendix 2:Tourism Related Businesses in Staffin

Appendix 3:Potential Funding Sources

1.0INTRODUCTION

1.1The Staffin Community Trust (SCT) opened its Ceumannan I(footsteps in Gaelic)network of 13 outdoor sites in 2009. The Ceumannan project has been designed by SCT as an outdoor eco-museum without walls, open 24/7 year-round and set in a community landscape in the north-east of Skye.

1.2Through Ceumannan II (CII) the SCT plans to provide new or upgraded walking routes across Staffin and a viewing platform at the Lealt Gorge. This additional infrastructure will underpin adiverse range of activities linked to the Ecomuseum in and around the Staffin area targeted at a range of audiences as described in the Ceumannan II Activity Plan.

1.3SCT aims to create the best eco-museum in Scotland and considers that thesecond phase of Ceumannan (the paths and viewing platform together with further physical interpretation and new digital interpretationplus a programme of activities)would be an important step forward in realising that ambition.

1.4The cultural, nature based, archaeological and geological stories behind the new infrastructure, in several different crofting townships, will be told through sympathetic, non-intrusive Gaelic and English interpretation, activities, events and signage. Collectively they will help create a sense of place and character for the Staffin area.

1.5This report assesses the economic benefits that would arise from investing in Ceumannan II, taking into account the new planned activities and improvements targeted at attracting additional day and overnight visitors into the area and enhancing their experiences.

2.0METHODOLOGY

2.1To assess the net economic and wider impacts of the CeumannanII,our methodology was designed to quantify:

1. Economic benefits from likelyadditional visitors and their expenditures;
2. Other benefits – health, cultural awareness etc.;
3. One-off economic impacts frompath and construction and related works;
4. Future maintenance and other operational impacts.

2.2To arrive at a net figure for the economic impact of visitors, it was necessary to subtract an estimate of whatmight have been spent in the absence of the newactivities, paths; interpretationand viewpoint in the local area, and how much new Staffinvisitors might spend outside the local area.

2.3As defined for this impact analysis, the local area to Staffin does not stretch to Portree or Uig.The Staffin community would not captureall of the additional expenditure made by visitors attracted by an extended path network, viewing platform, and new associated events.Some of this additional spend will be elsewhere in Skye, for example in Portree. Skye is popular for day trips from visitors staying elsewhere in the Highlands, and day trips to the Storr from Inverness, Aviemore and Fort William are quite common – although people travelling more than 200 miles in a day on a round trip and using paths in Staffin would have limited time for local spend.

2.4Direct visitor spending, e.g. on catering or crafts, could generate local supply chain spending or “induced” spending by those earning income from direct visitor spending, but in a small area such as Staffin this would be relatively limited.

2.5Staffin only has a small number of residents and it is assumed that they would have spent broadly the same amount of money locally regardless of the existence of a path network and the new local events in which they might participate.

2.6It is unlikely that many Staffin residents will use the paths for purposes such as getting to work, although more active lifestyles would be encouraged and would improve health.Throughout the year,the most consistent users of paths, near where they live, are often local dog walkers, as well as crofters using the routes to feed livestock. Some Portree residents might be attracted toStaffin to use the network for a variety of recreational purposes, however.

2.7Different people will have different expectations of path networks, and non-market benefits such as health (physical and mental), cultural connections and educationare not captured in conventional economic analysis.Some non-market benefits, indeed, are applicable to most users.

2.8Also, although they may have some concomitant economic value, non-market benefits are often important motivators for public support of projects and should be an integral part of the decision making process.

2.9Concentrations or clusters of facilities have been shown to attract visitors who appreciate a range of sites they can visit during a trip. NE Skye has a growing reputation (see 6.3) as an Adventure Travel and Nature Tourism destination[1], and Staffin is well placed to host additional services for visitors such as bespoke tours, photography, arts and crafts, Gaelic culture and field studies alongside hospitality services.

2.10Designed path networks with relatively level gradientscan attract a wider range ofpeople – creating a more even gender and age balance amongst users. Other Skye paths, especially in the Cuillins, can be steeper and require high levels of fitness and outdoor skills.

2.11The design lives of improved and new Ceumannan II paths and viewing platform are assumed to be at least 50 years – although regular maintenance and repairs when required will be important to ensure their utility.

3.0CONTEXT

3.1Skye, and the Staffin landscape in particular, feature in a wide spectrum of promotional and entertainment media. The island has become one of a handful of ‘must visit’ destinations in Scotland, and sites in Staffin have experienced a 500% increase in visitors over the last 10 years.

3.2Much of the media is digital and online (film, TV, video, Youtube, blogs etc.) and has an international circulation. This exposure clearlycontributes significantly to the area’s popularity with overseas visitors.

3.3Staffin’s picturesque landscape and scenery has provided locations for recent high-profilemovies including Prometheus, Snow White and the Huntsman, and recently, Macbeth. Advertisements have used Staffin locations – e.g. Johnnie Walker Whisky and international travel search engine company Kayak shooting an app in June 2015 around the Quiraing for European and UK television. In May 2016 the road past the Quiraing was closed for filming an unknown advertising piece.

3.4Travel magazine and online travel websites have highlighted Skye as a recommended destination; often picked out alongside Edinburgh and the Highlands.Skye came eighth in Conde Nast Traveller’s Readers’ Choice Awards in the magazine’s Top Ten European Islands category and was voted fourth best island in the world by National Geographic magazine. Articles in more specialist outdoors magazines like Trail, Outdoors Magazine, and the German language publication Bergsteiger have featuredspecific walking routes in Staffin.

3.5Media coverage in December 2015[2]of recently discovered Sauropod dinosaur trackways at nearby Duntulm,in what has been described as the most extensive dinosaur fossil site yet known in Scotland, is likely to add to the area’s attraction for visitors.

3.6Images of the Storr are central to the recent VisitScotland ‘Sprit of Scotland’ marketing campaign launched in February 2016.

4.0AUDIENCES

Residents

4.1Although resident spending is generally disregarded in quantifying economic impact, a profile of Staffin residents is given below for completeness. CeumannanII will provide some further opportunities for residents wishing to improve their health through walking and other activities. Tables 1 and 2 show thatStaffin Data Zone S01003911 had an estimated 568 residents in June 2013, with 286 males and 282 females[3]. Staffin has experienced a decline in its population between 2009 and 2013 from 608 to 568. There has been some in-migration, but not enough to match those moving away, and the primary school rollhas declined significantly, suggesting most in-migrants may not be young families.

Table 1:Staffin Residents by Age in 2013

Age
in
2013 / 0
to
4 / 5
to
9 / 10to15 / 16to19 / 20to24 / 25to29 / 30to34 / 35to39 / 40to44 / 45to49 / 50to54 / 55
to59 / 60to64 / 65to69 / 70to74 / 75to79 / 80to84 / 85to89 / 90+
Male / 12 / 10 / 17 / 18 / 9 / 8 / 6 / 12 / 20 / 35 / 17 / 44 / 16 / 23 / 18 / 13 / 3 / 4 / 1
Female / 9 / 11 / 20 / 7 / 14 / 7 / 6 / 23 / 14 / 24 / 35 / 25 / 17 / 21 / 19 / 13 / 5 / 8 / 4
Total / 21 / 21 / 37 / 25 / 23 / 15 / 12 / 35 / 34 / 59 / 52 / 69 / 33 / 44 / 37 / 26 / 8 / 12 / 5

Table 2:Staffin Population

Population (2013) / Data Zone S01003911
(2009) / Highland / Scotland
Total Population / 568 (608) / 232,950 / 5,327,700
Population Aged 16-19 / 25 (23) / 10,270 / 264,187
Total Population – Children (%) / 13.91(13.82) / 17.40 / 17.11
Total Population – Working Age (%) / 61.09(62.34) / 60.16 / 62.55
Total Population – Pensionable Age (%) / 25.00(23.85) / 22.32 / 19.81

Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics

4.2The wider island of Skye has had success in attracting new residents, some of whom consider access to surrounding landscapes and heritageamongst their compelling reasons to relocate to the island. Some of these people would participate in activities inStaffin, as perhaps would their families and friends coming to visit.

4.3In the years 2001 to 2011, Skye experienced an increase in population of 7.8% or 732 (9,445 to 10,177),much from in-migration. The population is projected to increase significantly to around 13,400 by 2024, whilst the current high proportion of 45-65 year olds will result in a large increase in the over 65s by 2024, close to the Highland average. Across Skye over the last decade some 885 new houses have been built, with more properties having been restored.

4.4Portree, the nearest large settlement to Staffin, has experienced a population increase of over 11%and strong growth of 40% in housing in the north of the village over the last decade. Two rival supermarket proposals on the north side of Portree will perhaps contribute to greater traffic flows on the A855 which connects to Staffin.

4.5In general, some 81% of the Portree population considered their health was good or very good, but this is below the rates for Highland, and a higher proportion reported a limiting long term illness. The NHS recommends people should aim for 10,000 steps per day (most people manage between 3,000 and 4,000 per day)

4.6The Staffin Community Survey Report from April 2011 included a series of four statements that sought respondents’ views about the environment and land management, including common grazing (where relevant), woodlands, paths, the shoreline and other public spaces.

4.7Respondents were asked about the extent to which they agreed or disagreed with the following statements. Responses were scored using a five point scoring system. (“To a great extent” +2, “To some extent” +1, “Neutral” 0, “Not really” -1, “Not at all” -2). The combined average results give residents’ impression of their local environment:

I have a good understanding of the value of the area's natural assets + 1.2

There is ample public access to rural areas (paths, cycle routes etc) + 0.6

The area's natural assets are appropriately managed + 0.25

Local development initiatives take proper account of the environment + 0.2

4.8Each average response suggests that residents consider that there is room for improvement in participation and learning in Staffin.

Visitor Profile

4.9Tourism contributes around 30% of Skye’s employment,and visitor expenditure is therefore very important. Skye receives a higher number of first time visitors and a higher proportion of non UK visitors compared to the Highlands[4]. There is also a stronger market for longer stay visitors who are higher spenders than touring visitors and day trippers.

4.10The 2011 Highland Visitor Survey is dated, but remains relevant in demonstrating the broad breakdownsof visitor spending by category during their overnight trips. The VisitScotland Key Facts on Tourism in 2014 reports an almost identical percentage split.Spending is broken down into the following categories:

Accommodation 33%

Eating out 21%

Travel20%

Shopping14%

Entertainment 6%

Miscellaneous 6%

4.11Interestingly, the 2015 Cairngorms National Park (CNP) Visitor Survey[5] of over 2,500 people identified a different average spend (Figure 7) in similar categories over the previous 24 hours although the total spend is similar to that given by VisitScotland in the 2014 tourism summary.

Table 3: Expenditure in the CNP (per person in last 24 hours)

Spend Categories / Total / % / Resident / Day
tripper / Short break / Longer break
Accommodation / 60.50 / 69 / 0 / 0 / 50.20 / 96.10
Food drinkelsewhere / 11.30 / 13 / 6.30 / 6.40 / 11.00 / 13.80
Entertainment / 5.30 / 6 / 0.80 / 3.70 / 5.50 / 6.10
Tourist shopping / 5.60 / 6.5 / 1.00 / 3.30 / 3.30 / 8.20
Transport within area / 3.00 / 3.5 / 2.60 / 1.50 / 2.90 / 3.80
Miscellaneous
other expenditure / 1.70 / 2 / 3.20 / 0.70 / 1.80 / 2.00
Total / £87.40 / £13.90 / £15.50 / £74.70 / £129.00

Table 4: The 2015 VisitScotland Review of 2014 Spending per Trip

Spend per trip (£) / Spend per night (£)
Visitors from Scotland / 179.72 / 61.16
Visitors from England / 288.68 / 75.07
Visitors from Overseas / 681.48 / 85.50
Given different proportions of visitor origins,
average spend per night is taken at around £75ppn

4.12There is little up-to-date visitor data disaggregated specifically to Skye.The 2011 Highland Visitor Survey gives some idea of why people visit the Highlands and what they do. This is taken broadly to represent visitors to Skye.

4.13For 57% of visitors, scenery and landscape are the main reasons for visiting; 54% took a short walk or stroll and 41% took a longer walk[6]. This suggests that walking is likely to be the most common activity for those visiting Skye, followed by biking and nature viewing.

4.14In 2004, Tourism Intelligence Scotland[7], advised by scenario planners at VisitScotland, reckoned that by 2015, walking tourism would be likely to contribute up to 22% of the overall UK tourism revenue in Scotland.

4.15VisitScotland’s (2014)[8] fact sheet on the walking sector confirms the popularity and importance of walking. Nearly four million domestic tourism trips were made in 2012 involving short or long walks. These trips were worth £1,068 million to the Scottish economy.

4.16Many people walk as part of a wider trip. In 2012, taking into account only trips where walking was the primary purpose, 521,000 trips were taken withspend of £174 million. There was a slight skew in favour of more female walkers, at least for walks of under an hour.

4.17Paths not only support the main activity of walking, theycan provideaccess infrastructure to help visitors enjoy a range of other activities on their own, in groups or through organised events.Paths support people’s learning and participation through multipleactivities such as sightseeing, visiting historical and heritage sites, archaeology, cultural studies, wildlife watching, mountain biking, longer hiking, running, rock climbing, photography and camping. Ceumannan II will facilitate these activities.

4.18Mostvisitors participate in a mix of these outdoor activities, and path networks that can offer a mix tend to attract greater visitor use.Family groups may be particularly attracted by a wider range of activities and things to do and are a target audience for Ceumannan II.

4.19In Staffin,CeumannanII will add to the existing critical mass of local paths and natural attractions, thereby further encouraging new visitors to the area and those already visiting to stay longer, and helping to build Staffin’s reputation as an Adventure Travel destination with accessible heritage, wildlife and culture.

4.20Staffin is attractive to walkers. In addition to existing Ceumannan Ilocations , the popular Walk Highland website[9] includes six ‘low level’ walk routes and four ‘high level’ walk routes that are within or cross the Staffin area. These comprise approximately 10% of the walks featured on the Skye section of the website. Some of these are being further enhanced through Ceumannan II.

4.21Walking activitiesin the Ceumannan context can be sub divided into different categories according to the motivation of the visitor. For example:

• Walking holidays – holidays and short breaks where walking is the main purpose of the holiday.

• Holiday walking – where walking is an important part of a holiday (although not the main purpose) and where good walking country is animportant factor in holiday destination choice.

• Walking day visits – day visits where walking is the main purpose of thevisit.

• Casual walking.

4.22The Walking Tourism Scotland report[10] produced by Tourism Intelligence Scotland distinguishes four different groups of people who make up ‘Walking Tourists’ in Scotland today, with a mixed group (19%) who show some of the attributes from each group.

Table 5: Walking Types

Description / %
The Committed Explorer / Likes hills, mountains and more remote areas to get a sense of adventure; they are the dedicated walkers only here to walk. It is a passion for them and they are excellent at using a map and a compass. / 23
The Part Time Explorer / Likes hills, mountains and more remote areas to get a sense of adventure; but they are a little less gung ho and like to have a well-earned pint at the end of the day. They like to do other activities that relate to the natural environment, e.g. local culture and history. / 18
The Committed Wanderer / Moderate walks; these people are very serious about walking but unlike an Explorer, they like to walk within their comfort zone. They have a ‘work and reward’ approach. / 7
The Part Time Wanderer / Moderate walks; these people love to walk but only as part of other activities. / 33
The ‘General’ Walker / Combines elements of all the other groups. / 19
Total / 100

4.23The paths proposed as part of Ceumannan II are an excellent fit with the interests of Part Time Explorers, Committed Wanderers and Part Time Wanderers. Some Committed Explorers, as part of a specific trip to Trotternish or a ‘rest’ day from the higher Cuillins, may also be attracted to participate in activities anduse paths in Staffin.

4.24CeumannanII activities also fit demand from the new VisitScotland market segmentation of ‘home turf’ visitors called: adventure seekers, curious travellers, engaged sightseers, food loving culturalists and natural advocates. Staffin already has the self-catering accommodation providing the flexibility, freedom and privacy features many of these audienceswill value when enjoying Ceumannan activities.

Visitor Numbers

4.25Figure 6 shows the recent rapid growth in visitor numbers to the Storr, which has had a positive impact in the Staffin area as a whole.

Figure 6:Growth in Visitor Numbers Through the Counter at the Storr,2002 -15[11]

Visitor Growth Patterns at the Storr

200225,589
201236,206 41% increase
201361,628 70% increase
201489,220 45% increase
2015118,500 33% increase

4.26Figure 7shows a similar pattern for the Fairy Pools, and a range of other sites show significant upward trends in numbers (Note: TheQuiraing counter is some way along the track and the numbers stopping around the main car parking area for photographs etc. are believed to be greater than at the Storr).