Alaska Sustainable Salmon Fund

Statement of Work

Revision #1: Extend project period to 12/31/14

  1. Project Title:Prediction Model: Yukon River Chinook Salmon
  1. Project Number:44625PCSRF Objective:RM&E

III.Principal Investigator

Milo Adkison, Professor
University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF)

School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences (SFOS)
PO Box 757220
Fairbanks, AK 99775
(907) 474-1811

Co-Principal Investigators

Terrance J. Quinn II, Professor
UAF SFOS, Juneau Center

17101 Point Lena Loop Road
Juneau, AK 99801
(907) 796-5457

Toshihide Hamazaki, Regional Biometrician
Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G)

Division of Commercial Fisheries (CF)

333 Raspberry Road
Anchorage, AK 99518
(907) 267-2158

IV.Project Period: 4/1/12 – 12/31/14

V.Project Description

  1. Synopsis

Yukon River Chinook salmon populations support subsistence and commercial fisheries throughout the drainage in both the United States and Canada. The Chinook salmon fishery is a gauntlet fishery where salmon are fished sequentially as they migrate from the river mouth to upriver spawning grounds, many of which are in Canada.To conserve its population and provide a sustainable fishery, it is imperative for managers to know the abundance and the timing of Chinook salmon arriving at particular upriver locations in order to determine whether to open or restrict fisheries.Using retrospective analysis, this project will determine the most appropriate relationship between early-season indicators of run strength and run timing.The relationship between the timing of the run and the rate of migration upriverwill also be investigated as evidenced by historical tagging data, the temporal separation between pulses of fish in the lower river and various upriver locations, and other available data.These analyses will form the basis of a model which will inform managers of Chinook salmon run strength and of timing at various locations throughout the river from which managers can make more informed, better management decisions.

  1. Introduction

Yukon River Chinook salmon populations support subsistence and commercial fisheries throughout the drainage in both the United States and Canada. The Yukon River Chinook salmon fishery is jointly managed by ADF&G, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), and the Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO).The fishery in the United States is managed to meet escapement goals in U.S. drainages and achieve the negotiated passage goal of Canadian-origin Chinook salmon at the U.S.-Canada Border. The Yukon River Chinook fishery is often described as a gauntlet or sequential fishery where a salmon stock is fished sequentially as it migrates from the mouth of the river to the upriver spawning grounds.As a consequence, the Canadian-origin Chinook salmon stocks that comprise 50% of the Yukon River Chinook salmon necessarily experience the highest exploitation rate among the various Yukon River Chinook salmon stocks.

Major challenges in managing the Yukon Chinook salmon fishery are the long distances of migration and the inter-annual variability in run timing. The observed mid-point (50%) of the migration 1961 – 2009 has ranged from June 10 to June 30. It takes about 1-1.5 months for Canadian-origin Chinook salmon to migrate from the river mouth to the U.S.-Canada border.At Emmonak, near the river mouth, the Chinook salmon run typically starts near the end of May, reaches the mid-point on June 21, and is effectively over by July 15, although Chinook may be observed as late as September.At Eagle near the Canadian border, where fish are counted to ensure treaty obligations are met, fish don’t start to arrive until early July.Consequently, several weeks of fishery management decisions have to be made before seeing fish at any escapement grounds.

To address these challenges, ADF&G runs a series of run timing/strength monitoring projects along the river drainage to assess overall run strength and make management decisions includingtest fisheries nearthe mouths of the Yukon,a sonar project at Pilot Station in the lower river, and the Eagle border sonar. However, current use of those data for management decisions is more qualitative, based on managers’ collective institutional knowledge and experience. For instance, the opening and closing of the Chinook salmon fisheries upriver are based on average swimming speed.While this has been worked sufficiently well when Chinook salmon run size is large, recent declines in the Chinook salmon return have made it imperative to execute more precise management actions.

The major purpose of this project is to develop an inseason run-timing and projection model that rigorously applies the data currently collected throughout the Yukon River drainage during the season. This model is expected to provide more accurate information about the projected run size and expected run timing and strength in upriver locations so that managers can make more informed and better management decisions for the conservation and sustainability of the Yukon Chinook salmon fishery.Further, the model will serve as a template for other fisheries, such as the Yukon summer and fall chum salmon runs.

  1. Location

Latitude: 62.774581 NLongitude: 164.537172 W

  1. AKSSF Objective

AYK: 3A-2

  1. Objectives
  2. Project Objectives
  3. Develop rigorous inseason projections of Yukon River Chinook salmon overall run timing and run strength
  4. Develop rigorous inseason projections of run timing at various locations along the Yukon River
  5. Provide a user-friendly run strength andtiming modelsuited to inseason use by fishery managers and the interested public
  6. Methods

The tool developed by this project will take inseasondataand produce rigorous estimates of run strength and timing. This tool will also project the timing of Chinook arrival at various locations within the Yukon River including the Canadian border.

Assessments of run strength and run timing: A variety of indicators of run strength are available inseason. These include cumulative sonar counts at Pilot Station; catch rates in test, commercial, and subsistence fisheries; and escapement counts and indices from towers, fish wheels, weirs, the Eagle River sonar, and aerial surveys (long migration times reduce the utility of escapement counts for inseason forecasts). Indicators also include preseason forecasts of run strength and preseason forecasts of dates of percentage points of the run based on environmental conditions in the northern Bering Sea and Norton Sound areas; all things being equal, indications that the run is early will tend to reduce the expected run strength.

The historical data available include multiple years (for some datasets as many as 50 years) of data from the assessment projects listed above as well as additional data from discontinued projects and short-term studies. These data will first be assessed to determine shape characteristics, where the shape of the timing curve is defined as a fraction of the run passing each day. This shape may be characterizable with many fewer parameters (best case = mean date and a standard deviation about the date); however, as the Chinook run is composed of several stock groupings, multiple peaks within a season are likely. Data will then be used to characterize years by the number of days they deviate from the typical average date of the run-timing distribution, taking into account the specifics of the timing curve and fluctuations in the strength of the various run components. Characterization of historical run strength, an index of the total number of Chinook returning to the Yukon River, will be based on historical count and catch per unit effort (CPUE) data.

Next, date-specific predictive models of both run strength and run timing will be constructed. These models will use the historical data that were available on each date in combination with preseason forecasts of run strength and timing. Inseason data will be transformed into forms thought to be most useful for prediction; these include cumulative sums, CPUE, and temporal patterns (particularly pulses). Predictive equations will generally be multiple linear regressions. The types and forms of data used in the best model will be chosen by comparing retrospective predictive performance using information theoretic criteria.

Cross-validation analyses will be used to quantify the uncertainty of predictions by date and time and these uncertainty measures will be used to generate a plausible range for model projections.

Spatio-temporal predictions: Predicted run timing will be input into a model of upriver migration to predict peak timing of Chinook by location and date. The migration model will be a compartment model where the Yukon River will be divided into various sections based on practical considerations including the availability of data and the needs of managers. Such a model was developed for wild pink salmon returns to Prince William Sound. The model equations will describe the movement of the various stocks of Chinook salmon from one compartment to another. The migration time from Pilot Station to the Canadian border will be prioritized.

A retrospective analysis of historical tagging experiments as well as location-specific indicators of abundance will be used to estimate typical migration times from the Pilot Station sonar to various locations upstream. This analysis will also investigate putative relationships between migration rates and environmental conditions, overall timing of the run, and date.

User version: An Excel spreadsheet will be constructed based on these analyses. It will allow a user to input preseason and inseason data and output indicators of run strength, run timing, and predicted dates of peak timing at various inriver locations.

  1. Benefits

The project will directly benefit conservation of Yukon River Chinook salmon by providing more accurate inseason information that managers rely upon. Improved management precision will benefit maintenance of Chinook salmon populations necessary for subsistence fishing.

  1. Products, Milestones, and Timelines
  • May 15, 2012: Hire Master’s student research assistant
  • June 1 – December 31, 2012:Assemble data sets and conduct exploratory analyses
  • January 1 – September 15, 2013: Perform analyses in support of the first two objectives (inseasonforecasts and migration models)
  • September 16, 2013 – May 30, 2014: Prepare journal manuscripts/thesis; present results at a scientific conference; cross-validate analyses; develop Excel spreadsheet
  • June 1 – October 30, 2014: Edit and submit manuscripts to journals
  • September 30, 2014: Student thesis defense; dissemination of Excel model
  • December 31, 2014:Provide final report to AKSSF
  1. Partners

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA):Dr. Phil Mundy, Director of NOAA’s Ted Stevens Marine Research Institute, will serve on the advisory committee of the student research assistant and will provide advice on salmon timing behavior and fishery management.

The following agencies provideinseason run timing/abundance data throughout the Yukon River drainage:

  • ADF&G, Gene Conservation lab: inseason genetic stock composition results
  • ADF&G, Sport Fish Division: inseason escapement results at the Chena River
  • USFWS:inseason escapement results at Andreafsky and Gisasa River
  • Yukon River Drainage Fisheries Association:inseason run assessment results at Mountain Village
  • Tanana Chiefs Conference: inseason escapement results at Henshaw River
  • Bering Sea Fisherman’s Association: inseason escapement results at Salcha River
  • Stan Zuray: inseason run assessment results at Rampart Rapids

X.Budget

UAF / Total
100 Personnel / $88,235
200 Travel / $10,935
300 Contractual / $23,125
400 Supplies / $3,200
500 Equipment / $0
Subtotal / $125,495
Expenses subject to indirect / $105,570
600 Indirect @ 25% / $26,393
Total / $151,888

Budget Narrative:

Line 100: Personnel

Salary and fringe benefits is included for Bryce Mecum, a Master’s student research assistant, for 20 hours/week during the academic year and 40 hours/week during summer.

  • 2,784 hours @ $20.17/hour = $56,152
  • 1,044 hours@ $21.84/hour = $22,801 (rate of pay effective 7/1/14)
  • Benefits: $2,888 (year 1) + $3,055 (year 2) + and $3,339 (year 3)= $9,282

Total Personnel:$88,235

Line 200: Travel

Investigators will travel Anchorage-Juneau to meet with the Master’s student research assistant:

  • Airfare: $310 + $341 + $375 = $1,026
  • Per diem: 2 days @ $40/day x 3 trips = $240
  • Lodging: 1 night @ $149/night x 3 trips = 447
  • Ground transportation: $50 + $55 + $61 = $166

The PI will travel to in-state conferences during the first and third years of the project:

  • Airfare: $500 + $605 = $1,105
  • Per diem: 5 days @ $40/day x 2 trips = $400
  • Lodging: 4 nights @ $149/night x 2 trips = $1,192
  • Ground transportation: $125 + $151 = $276

The PI will attend anout-of-state conference in the second year of the project:

  • Airfare: $1,763
  • Per diem: 5 days @ $71/day = $355
  • Lodging: 4 nights @ $229/night = $916
  • Ground transportation: 5 days @ $27/day = $135

The PI will travel to Vancouver, Canada, in the third year of the project:

  • Airfare: $908
  • Per diem: 6 days @ $124/day = $744
  • Lodging: 5 nights @ $216/night = $1,080
  • Ground transportation: 6 days @ $30.33/day = $182

Total Travel:$10,935

Line 300: Contractual

  • Conference registration fees: 4 conferences @ $300/conference = $1,200
  • Publication fees:$2,000
  • Tuition for the Master’s student: $19,925

Total Contractual:$23,125

Line 400: Supplies

  • Laptop computer:$2,000
  • Project supplies(e.g., software): $400/year x 3 years= $1,200

Total Supplies:$3,200

Line 600: Indirect

UAF’s federally negotiated indirect rates through June 30, 2013, range from 35% to 49.5% excluding (among other costs) equipment, tuition, and subgrants and contracts over the first $25,000; however, indirect will be recovered at a reduced rate of 25% for this project.

XI.Match Budget

UAF (35%) / Total
100 Personnel / $42,529
200 Travel / $0
300 Contractual / $0
400 Supplies / $0
500 Equipment / $0
Subtotal / $42,529
600 Indirect @ 25% / $10,632
Total / $53,161

Match Budget Narrative:
Dr. Milo Adkison will oversee project management, co-supervise the Master’s student research assistant, and provide technical guidance and assistance:

  • 80 hours @ $76.64/hour = $6,131
  • 80 hours @ $80.08/hour = $6,406 (rate of pay effective 7/1/2013)
  • 73.4 hours @ $83.68/hour = $6,141 (rate of pay effective 7/1/2014)

Terrence Quinn will co-supervise the Master’s student research assistant and provide technical guidance and assistance:

  • 80 hours @ $95.04/hour = $7,603
  • 80 hours @ $99.31/hour = $7,945 (rate of pay effective 7/1/2013)
  • 80 hours @ $103.79/hour = $8,303 (rate of pay effective 7/1/2014)

Total Personnel: $42,529

Line 600: Indirect

UAF’s federally negotiated indirect rates through June 30, 2013, range from 35% to 49.5% excluding (among other costs) equipment, tuition, and subgrants and contracts over the first $25,000; however, indirect will be recovered at a reduced rate of 25% for this project.

Prediction Model: Yukon River Chinook SalmonPage 1 of 710/17/2018

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