VISIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY IN CROATIA

Ph. D. Igor Dekanic

University of Zagreb, Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum engineering,

Pierottijeva 6, Zagreb, ++385 01 4605 459,

B.sc. Petroleum engineer Lidia Maurovic

University of Zagreb, Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum engineering,

Pierottijeva 6, Zagreb, ++385 01 4605 452,

B.sc. Petroleum engineer Daria Karasalihovic

University of Zagreb, Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum engineering,

Pierottijeva 6, Zagreb, ++385 01 4605 452,

SUMMARY:

Environmental concerns have made us aware of the importance of utilizing energy supplies more efficiently. In the last two decades the increasing emphasis had been placed on conservation and efficient use of energy from the existing sources and development of technical elements and technologies for energy production from renewable resources. Nowadays saving energy, and using it more efficiently has, in some part of the world become a way of life. It is simply a matter of managing energy consumption by eliminating waste and using only what is needed.

Today we are faced with problems of energy resources depletion and energy supply and demand pattern is even more problematic, since the results of sustainable development efforts have failed to materialize yet. The growth of energy demand in the industrialized, but also in developing, world puts us in a position where we will soon be faced with energy insufficiency. The rapid growth of energy consumption and decreasing of oil and gas supplies as major energy sources makes energy today not as available as it used to be.

Energy and energy use is the imperative of industrial development and everyday life. Growing environmental awareness point global attention towards interrelationships between development actions and environmental impacts.

Keywords: energy efficiency, energy consumption, sustainable development, and environmental issues

  1. INTRODUCTION

Energy is the driving force of the world. It is an essential ingredient of growth and development. However, such growth and development can be detrimental to the environment and therefore life on Planet; thus there is a basic conflict between them. Beside the greenhouse gasses from combustion of fossil fuels many other environmental impacts from the energy production and use are to be considered. In the coming decades, global environmental issues will significantly affect patterns of energy use around world.

As energy is overall used, it is everyone’s responsibility not to waste it, but to use it as efficient as we can, taken into consideration present technical and technological constrains. As energy is not as available as it used to be, the responsibility is shared through putting a great emphasis on development of alternative energy sources, which are economical and environmental sensitive and also on securing reliable sources of future supply. Adapting our way of life and everyday habits, that might not look as a big potential towards energy saving, to more energy efficient models, we are building a solid background for future generations.

  1. ENERGY OVERVIEW

The oil embargoes in the 70-ties led to activities in developed countries aiming at reducing their dependency on oil import. From that time energy was seen in different light because people started to realize that fossil fuels are limited. At the same time a strong geopolitical meaning had been given to energy sources and energy economizing became one of the measures for energy preservation in official policy. Increasing of energy efficiency and decreasing of energy consumption were the main goals of new policy.

Today we are faced with the same problems and energy supply and demand pattern is even more problematic, since the results of sustainable development efforts have failed to materialize yet. The growth of energy demand in the industrialized, but also in developing, world puts us in a position where we will soon be faced with energy insufficiency. The rapid growth of energy consumption and decreasing of oil and gas supplies as major energy sources makes energy today not as available as it used to be.

Global energy consumption growth and depletion of energy resources, will be the main reasons of higher energy prices and the high prices will be the main problem of energy future. Increased ecological consciousness, pollution limitation needs, improved efficiency of energy plants are some of prerequisites for reducing energy costs and main elements of sustainable development.

The volatility of energy markets in recent years and the current geopolitical situation have led to a renewed focus on energy policy and the central issue of energy security. For further sustainable energy planning it is necessary to understand current energy markets and how those markets have evolved over time. Despite all the volatility, markets continued to operate effectively in the last years, demonstrating the value that flows from the maintenance of diverse sources of supply, particularly for oil and natural gas. Energy consumption analyses have been showing global energy trends, but future energy scenarios could be way in defining desirable but yet possible strategy. Some of energy forecasts show that there will be approximately 60% increase in energy consumption in next twenty years, which will be the consequence of continuous growth of population and improving of living standards especially in developing countries. Naturally, this will increase energy demand, but also society has to be aware that problem of poverty will not be solved any time soon, so the energy demand would not increase so much as it was predicted.

World oil consumption in 2001 decreased and it was the first decline since 1993. Europe and Africa were the only regions to register consumption increases. Low demand was pronounced in Asia. Today oil represents dominant primary energy source with share of 40% in total energy consumption and it is predicted that it will keep the same share at least for two decades. The share of oil for electricity production is predicted to decrease but oil will still dominate transportation sector in the future. The consumption of natural gas with share of 23% in world total energy consumption grew only by 0.3% in 2001. The consumption of natural gas as “fuel of future” could double in next twenty years especially for electricity production. The increase of natural gas consumption is answer to introducing a new energy plants with gas turbines, cogeneration plants and kombi processes with efficiency above 80%. Also, price, environmental issues and safe supply of natural gas are driven forces for establishing of natural gas as a main fuel in near future. The world coal consumption increased by 1.7% in 2001, as Chinese demand grew strongly, following four years of decline. Strong increases were also recorded in some other Asian countries. European and US coal use resumed its trend decline, falling by 1.2%. After 1999 natural gas consumption for the first time in history has exceeded coal consumption that is now around 22%. The consumption of nuclear power with share less than 5% in total rose in all regions except Africa, expanding by 2.8% globally, despite a very limited increase in nuclear generation capacity with share of. Hydroelectric generation contracted by 3.7%, reflecting sharp drop. The renewable energy use is expected to increase by more than 50% in next twenty years, but current share of total energy is around 9%. Growth in renewable energy resources is expected to continue to be constrained by relatively moderate fossil fuel prices.

If we analyse the share of fossil fuels in global consumption, it is clear that they have significant role in modern society, so controlling of energy sources is strategic issue. Complex market system and different types of covered monopolies could create market and economy instabilities that could result with global crises. Therefore, deregulation of energy market, presents international trend, made to achieve a higher level of supply security. During past time electricity and gas production, transmission and distribution were dominated by monopolies. The creation of a single energy market based on open and competitive markets represents a great challenge for the Europe. The introduction of full competition in energy supply means the traditional monopoly suppliers are a thing of the past.

The establishment of energy prices that reflect true costs of energy is crucial to efficient energy use and the further introduction of renewable energy resources. Also important is the reform of subsidies for energy and fiscal policies to ensure consistency between economic and environmental objectives, including the further introduction of carbon taxation in order to shift the composition of fuels to non-fossil sources.

The load placed on our environment has grown tremendously in recent years, because of increased resource and energy consumption fuelled by entrenched socio-economic activities based on mass production, mass consumption and mass waste, as well as recent skyrocketing population growth especially in developing countries. The strain of these trends on our environment has finally reached global proportions. Measures to obtain sustainable development are especially important at local level. These issues must be dealt with immediately by all of humanity, through international cooperation reflecting on the lives of each end every of us, via lifestyle and socio-economic activity. So, the mission of the human society is to put effort into preserving global environment in an attempt to build the society that will be capable of sustainable development. Therefore, some of society basic direction of action should be:

  • Promotion of energy conservation, waste reduction and recycling
  • Promotion of water conservation and effective water use
  • Promotion of practical environmental education and conservation activities
  • Introduction of new energies and efficient use of energy
  • Promotion of energy-saving houses and buildings
  • Promotion of environmental friendly traffic and goods distribution systems
  • Creation of regional areas having abundant green energy and areas rich with nature
  • Promotion of agriculture, forestry and fishing industries that care for environment
  • Promotion of greenhouse gases collection
  • Promotion of international environmental cooperation

In 2000, primary energy production in Croatia decreased by 1,7 % compared to 1999, with the average annual decrease rate of 3,7% during the five year period (Figure 1). The fuel wood production has increased by 12,3% in the same period and it participated with 8,5% and that was slightly more than in 1999. The production of crude oil fell compared to the preceding year by 6,1% and the utilization of water sources by 8%. The share of crude oil reached its lowest rate and amounted 28%. It should be mentioned that there is no production of coal since last mine was closed down during 1999. The production of natural gas grew by 6,8%. In 2000, natural gas participated with the highest rate ever, 32,4%. Hydropower had a relatively high participation of more than 31 percent.

Figure 1. Total primary energy production in Croatia

Source: Energy in Croatia 1996-2000, Annual Energy Report

Adding the import and subcontracting the export of all primary and transformed energy forms to the total primary energy supply determine total primary supply. In 2000 the total primary energy supply decreased by 2,8% in relation to the previous year. In comparison to previous year, the consumption of coal, fuel wood, natural gas and imported electricity increased (figure 2). The consumption of liquid fuels and the utilization of hydropower decreased. It is important to stress that the structure of the total primary energy supply and total primary energy production show the (un)balance of energy export and import to Croatia.

Figure 2. Energy share of primary energy supply in Croatia,

Source: Energy in Croatia 1996-2000, Annual Energy Report

In 2000, the total energy supply in Croatia calculated per capita, approximated 1,886 tones of oil equivalent. Comparison of the specific energy consumption in Croatia with the consumption realized in the developed European countries, European transition countries and other show that the specific energy consumption per capita in Croatia is in fact quite low. The background of these is different socio-economic factors. (Figure 3)

Figure 3. Total Primary Energy Supply per Capita in Croatia,

Source: Energy in Croatia 1996-2000, Annual Energy Report

3.SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN CROATIA

Economic growth and development are the fundamental aspirations of 70% of the people still living in the poor countries of world. It is not likely that a global consensus on what indicates a development can ever be reached. However, there seems to be a rather widespread understanding that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one indicator of development. Beside GDP a number of indicators could be taken into consideration when defining a positive development such as crime rates, infant mortality, educational level, equity and other that a certain society chooses according to its social and cultural value. Till now economic growth have had several aspects:

  • Economical growth led to population growth which created demand for more growth (cumulative causation);
  • Economic growth reduced the risk of unemployment, yet on the other hand it increased differences between rich and poor;
  • Growth is needed for profits which are needed for investment;
  • The success of governments is often measured in growth- related indicators;
  • Economic crises led to social and political instability.

Concerning global future development, it is always considered within boundaries of sustainability. Keeping development within boundaries of sustainability means meeting the demands of the present generations without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. By enforcing sustainable development, the quality of life will be improved, but not on the cost of environment, yet the supporting ecosystems will remain in place to supply on long-term basis. Sustainable development is a process of keeping in balance tree major systems: society- environment- economy. It is a balance between short and long term prospective.

Sustainable development policy has two key aspects:

  • The achievement of basic needs for all people, especially the global underclass;
  • Limits to growth are technical, cultural and social.

Figure 4. Sustainable development- balance between environmental, economical and social system

The conditions for achieving sustainable development policy can be expressed as follows:

  • Increased conservation and efficient use of conventional energy resources. Non- renewable resources like coal, oil, gas or uranium should not be used at a rate higher than that of building up substitutes in the form of energy savings or renewable energy supply systems
  • Demand side management
  • Strategic planning in energy sector
  • Use of renewable resources like hydropower, wind power, solar energy, biomass, geothermal energy, wave energy or tide energy
  • Stabilised population growth
  • Development and utilization of new technologies for more efficient use of energy
  • Minimum disruption to ecological processes
  • Pollutants like CO2 and radioactive waste should not be generated faster than the environment can absorb or neutralize them
  • Renewable resources like should not be used faster than they regenerate

Energy system has one of the most important roles in future development of the country for the development of whole economic system lies on reliable energy system. So, when we are talking about sustainable development the great emphasis should be put on changing existing energy system to sustainability. Environmental sustainability of an energy system mostly depends on the level of energy consumption, since all supplies have some environmental impact. Future energy consumption is determined by three main factors: population, economy and development of new technology that is energy intensity of technology applied. Planning in energy sector is one way to keep in balance the factors mentioned and preparing for sustainable future. However, planning alone cannot bring success. It is possible only if there are educated well-informed decision-makers and adequate planning instruments and techniques. A specific problem for Croatia is the lack of adequate planning instruments and techniques. It would be wrong to conclude that in Croatia planning tools and techniques are not being used, but many of them are outdated and some of the most modern are not being used at all. That has influenced a certain development course, possible risks, costs and benefits etc.

The impact of population on future development of energy system rises from a simple fact that all environmental problems are created by humans, so in general, more people will make it more difficult to reach sustainable development. That is why is important to have stabilised population growth. There is, however, a tendency to ignore environmental and economic aspect of development when discussing population, especially small countries like Croatia with little rate of population growth, where a growth in population would be desirable.

Introduction and utilization of new technologies is also one step closer to sustainability. For instance, introducing technologies like kombi- process or cogeneration systems for electricity production is one o the way to use energy more efficiently and therefore to save energy. New technologies for distributed electricity production have many advantages over large centralized energy systems like big power plats. Advantages are: efficiency (efficiency of a kombi- process around 60% and of cogeneration around 80%), flexibility (they can easily be adapted to needed power load), reduced greenhouse gasses emission and avoided losses in distribution net. Considering all that the utilization of such systems is one way for Croatia to change the path of its development to energy efficient way and therefore sustainability. In Croatia cogeneration technology in not completely new and it has been used for several years in heating systems and industry.

Energy saving can also be done on individual level. The great part of common behaviour of the people is based on routines and standard operating procedures, so energy saving, is in a way, out side the focus. With introduction of new energy efficient technologies, the global energy consumption is expected to decrease due to energy savings, but the global consumption of electricity is still expected to increase. Therefore, to meet sustainability criteria new energy efficient electricity utilizing appliances are already available on market. The new energy efficient products used in every day life can also contribute to energy saving. Besides introducing new more energy efficient products, energy savings can also be achieved trough demand side management. The demand side management is applicable to end use of energy. It is a process that utility companies use to make end users use less energy. Utility companies can work to reduce energy demand trough technology promotion and awareness programs.