Our Future Information Sheet 5: The Referendum on Independence
Introduction
On 18 September 2014, people from across Scotland will go to the polls to decide whether Scotland should become an independent country. This marks a historical moment, and could potentially lead to the break-up of the United Kingdom which has existed since the English and Scottish Parliaments passed the Acts of Union in 1707.
Referendums have been held in Scotland previously but this is the first time a referendum has been held specifically on independence. Previous referendums concerned the devolution of powers to Scotland from Westminster. The first of these was held in 1977 and was unsuccessful, while the second was held in 1997. This time it was successful, and led to the setting up of the Scottish Parliament via the Scotland Act 1998 (an Act of the UK Parliament). With it, control of most areas of domestic policy was handed from London to Edinburgh. Devolved matters include: agriculture, forestry and fisheries; education and training; environment; health and social services; housing; law and order (including the licensing of air weapons); local government; sport and the arts; tourism and economic development; and transport (including drink-driving and speed limits). Scotland also has limited powers to vary income tax, though these powers have never been used. A new legislative framework for Scottish public finance, the Scotland Act 2012, will introduce further powers, allowing the Scottish Parliament to set a Scottish rate of income tax.
Reserved matters, those which remain under the control of the UK Government, include: benefits and social security; immigration; defence; foreign policy; employment; broadcasting; trade and industry; nuclear energy, oil, coal, gas and electricity; consumer rights; data protection; and the Constitution.
In this information sheet, we (i) explore who is entitled to vote in this referendum;
(ii) provide evidence from recent opinion polls to discuss possible outcomes of the referendum; and finally (iii) explore some possible changes which may occur in higher education in the future, irrespective of the outcome of the referendum.
Extending the franchise
Whether you are entitled to vote in the referendum is based on where you live rather than your country of origin; all British and qualifying Commonwealth citizens resident in Scotland will be entitled to register to vote, as will all citizens of the Republic of Ireland and other European countries resident in Scotland. This means for example, that English people living in Scotland will be able to vote, but Scots living in England will not. The BBC has noted that 800,000 Scots who live in other parts of the UK will not be entitled to vote, yet 400,000 people from elsewhere in Britain who live in Scotland will be able to vote (BBC news http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-13326310, 26 November, 2013). Men and women serving in the armed forces but registered to vote in Scotland will also be eligible. However, in Scotland, as in the UK, prisoners are not entitled to vote, despite criticism from the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg. Tony Kelly, writing in the Guardian, (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/18/scotland-referendum-prisoners-excluded, 18 November, 2013) argues that the referendum cannot be truly democratic if prisoners remain excluded from the franchise.
One important change in this referendum is lowering the age of eligibility as young people aged over 16 on 18 September 2014 will be eligible to vote. This historic reduction in the voting age from 18 has been introduced as a one-off and will not apply to parliamentary elections. In lowering the voting age, Scotland has gone against the grain – across the world, the common voting age is 18. Scotland joins a small number of countries which allow 16 and 17 year olds to vote, including Austria, Cuba, Nicaragua, Brazil, Ecuador, Argentina, Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man. We have to think about whether lowering the voting age could set a precedent for 16 and 17 year olds to vote in future elections.
In a BBC news report we can see alternative political views on the lowering of the voting age for the referendum. Nicola Sturgeon (the Deputy Leader of the SNP which pushed to extend the franchise) said:
No-one has a bigger stake in the future of our country than today's young people and it is only right that they are able to have a say in the most important vote to be held in Scotland for three centuries. In next year's referendum, Scotland's 16 and 17-year-olds will be given the opportunity to shape their country's path by choosing what type of country they want Scotland to be. (Quoted by the BBC on 12 March, 2013)
In contrast, Annabel Goldie (the former Scottish Conservative leader) suggested young people would not have adequate life experience to make the decision. She explained:
The Scottish Conservatives are not hostile to debate on the different age limits for different activities, but are not supportive of singling out the independence referendum for a trial extension of franchise to 16 and 17-year-olds. (BBC news, 12 March, 2013, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-21741448)
Perspectives of young people who participated in the film
When making the film, we asked young people how they felt about having the vote, and we encountered a real mix of opinion, ranging from those who were delighted that the voting age had been lowered and felt that all future votes should be held this way, to those who felt that 16 year olds were too immature to be able to make the decision. This was illustrated in a discussion between two interviewees in Fife:
Jonathan: I think it’s a good thing because at the age of 16 you could get married, you could choose your life partner and you could also have a full time job. So you could contribute to the economy. So if you could do both those things you should be able to decide the future of your nation and well for the rest of your life.
Harris: I disagree. I think there’s a lot of people that aren’t mature enough and will waste their vote. And that’s what I believe; I don’t think people at 16 are mature enough to make that vote.
We also spoke to some young people who questioned the reasons behind the lowering of the voting age.
I like it too but I’m quite uncertain as well. I know that politics can sometimes be not always what it seems. So I’m not really sure if it’s that they want us to get involved or if it’s that [...] some people are really desperate to get the votes so they’re willing to drop the age so they’ll just have more people to support it. (Catriona, Western Isles)
We also found a range of opinions when we asked young people if they had made up their mind yet about how they were going to vote. Quite a number of young people we spoke to said that they had yet to decide, either because they felt there was not enough information available for young people to make an informed decision or because it wasn’t something which interested them very much. Some interviewees also pleaded for honesty from both campaigns. Tommy, from Fife said:
I don’t think there’s enough information out there. I think the two campaigns are just fighting each other and fear mongering. And I wish they’d just tell us what would happen. Or at least discuss it a bit more in public. (Tommy, Fife)
Two young women from Edinburgh raised concerns about the information available to young people:
Rona: Yeah, it’s really hard to find because you never know what information you can really trust because it is just so easy to pick and choose the statistics and things like that.
Caitlin: And twist the information.
Other interviewees said they had already made up their mind to vote yes or no. Common reasons for voting no included feeling satisfied with the status quo – ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’, they said. Some indicated that there were too many unknowns and it was too much of a risk to take to vote for independence, while others emphasised the financial implications of going independent.
Financially I think we’re a lot better off now than we would be if we were independent. (Rebecca, West Lothian)
In contrast, some of those who indicated they were going to vote yes pointed to Scotland’s oil as an example of a source of wealth which would be available to enhance the lives of Scottish people under independence. ‘Yes’ voters pointed to positive aspects of Scottish society which could be further developed in the future such as the lack of tuition fees and the desire to remove nuclear weapons from Scotland. They emphasised the importance of self-determination, that is, the belief that decisions about Scotland are best made by the people of Scotland.
I’m voting yes. You know, the decisions about Scotland are best placed by the people that live here because they care most about Scotland. (Joe, Edinburgh)
Evidence from recent surveys on social attitudes regarding the referendum
A range of surveys have been conducted in the last year exploring people’s attitudes to the referendum and how they intend to vote in September 2014. A team of researchers at the Universities of Edinburgh and Strathclyde and ScotCen Social Research conducted a survey of Scottish 14 to 17 year olds. While previous surveys have explored the attitudes of ‘young’ voters (18 to 30 year olds), this is the first representative survey to focus on young people aged 14 to 17 – those young people who will be voting next year. In total, 1018 interviews were conducted with young people, and in some cases with their parents too, in April and May 2013.
This survey found that a majority of 14 to 17 year olds (60.3%) intended to vote no, while similar proportions said they would either vote yes (20.9%) or were undecided (18.8%) as outlined in Table 5.1. This is in contrast to some reports in the media which had suggested that young people were more likely to vote yes. In actual fact, the survey found little difference between the voting intentions of those aged 14 to 17 and those of adults.
Table 5.1: “Should Scotland be an independent country?”
Yes / 20.9%No / 60.3%
Undecided / 18.8%
Total (100%) / 1018 respondents
Source: Eichorn et al., 2013.
http://www.aqmen.ac.uk/sites/default/files/Results_Report_Young_Persons_Survey_May2013_0.pdf
The report on the survey findings breaks down the results further to show how things might look if the responses of those who said they are currently ‘Undecided’ are left out. As shown in Table 5.2, in this scenario, the yes vote increases to 25.8% versus a no vote of 74.2%.
Table 5.2: “Should Scotland be an independent country?” (excluding “Undecided” votes)
Yes / 25.8%No / 74.2%
Total (100%) / 827 respondents
Source: Eichorn et al., 2013. http://www.aqmen.ac.uk/sites/default/files/Results_Report_Young_Persons_Survey_May2013_0.pdf
The survey also asked young people whether they needed more information to make their decision. More than two thirds said ‘I would like more information before I finally decide’ (67.2%), while 32.8% said ‘I have enough information to make a decision’, which is shown in Table 5.3 below.
Table 5.3: Need for information by voting intention
I have enough information to make my decision / 32.4% / 39.4% / 12.0%
I’d like more information before I finally decide / 67.6% / 60.6% / 88%
Total (100%) / 213 / 614 / 191
Source: Eichorn et al., 2013
http://www.aqmen.ac.uk/sites/default/files/Results_Report_Young_Persons_Survey_May2013_0.pdf
With regard to surveys of the wider adult population, recent polls have shown similar results to the survey of 14 to 17 year olds. Professor John Curtice, from the University of Strathclyde, is an expert in analysing voting patterns. He has written a blog providing a quick guide to opinion polls (The Poll Position, 25 November, 2013, http://www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk/blog/poll-position-%E2%80%93-quick-guide), in which he explains that while the various opinion poll companies agree that the yes vote is behind, there is some variation in terms of their findings.
Making sense of the independence debate
The Scottish Government recently published its independence White Paper ‘Scotland’s Future: Your Guide to an Independent Scotland’ (2013). This sets out the Scottish Government’s vision of how an independent Scotland might look. It should be noted, however, that an independent Scotland would not necessarily be run by an SNP government, and that there are also a range of political parties and organisations which support the Yes campaign (an alliance of the Scottish National Party, the Scottish Green Party, the Scottish Socialist Party and other groups and individuals) which may have alternative visions of what an independent Scotland would look like. Young people may wish to explore these as well when making their decisions.
The White Paper can now be read alongside the Better Together campaign’s document 500 Questions, as well as numerous other documents relating to key issues. The Better Together campaign is made up of Scottish Labour, the Scottish Conservative Party and the Scottish Liberal Democrats. The Scotland Office has also published a range of documents on the possible implications of independence. The Secretary of State for Scotland, Alistair Carmichael, has published a response to the White Paper which can be read here https://www.gov.uk/government/news/scottish-secretary-comments-on-independence-white-paper.